Trends in crashing. Communications Committee Meeting Insurance Information Institute. Washington, D.C. June 14, Matt Moore, Vice President
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1 Trends in crashing Communications Committee Meeting Insurance Information Institute Washington, D.C. June 14, 2015 Matt Moore, Vice President iihs.org
2 IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses deaths, injuries and property damage from crashes on the nation s roads. HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
3 Member groups Acceptance Insurance Gainsco Insurance Oregon Mutual Insurance ACE Private Risk Services GEICO Corporation Pekin Insurance Affirmative Insurance The General Insurance PEMCO Insurance Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Plymouth Rock Assurance Alfa Insurance Goodville Mutual Casualty Company Progressive Insurance Allstate Insurance Group Grange Insurance PURE Insurance American Family Mutual Insurance Hallmark Financial Services The Responsive Auto Insurance Company American National Hanover Insurance Group Rockingham Group Ameriprise Auto & Home Haulers Insurance Company Safe Auto Insurance Company Amica Mutual Insurance Company The Hartford Safeco Insurance Auto Club Enterprises Horace Mann Insurance Companies Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company Auto Club Group ICW Group SECURA Insurance Auto-Owners Insurance Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company Sentry Insurance Aviva Insurance Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Shelter Insurance Bankers Insurance Group Infinity Property & Casualty Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America Bitco Insurance Companies Kemper Corporation South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company California Casualty Group Kentucky Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Companies Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company Capital Insurance Group Liberty Mutual Insurance Company State Auto Insurance Companies Censtat Casualty Company Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company State Farm Insurance Companies Chubb & Son Main Street America Group Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Mercury Insurance Group Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Concord Group Insurance Companies MetLife Auto & Home The Travelers Companies COUNTRY Financial MiddleOak United Educators CSAA Insurance Group Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company USAA CSE Insurance Group MMG Insurance Utica National Insurance Group Direct General Corporation Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Erie Insurance Group Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company West Bend Mutual Insurance Company Esurance Nationwide Western National Insurance Group Farm Bureau Financial Services New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group Westfield Insurance Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan Nodak Mutual Insurance Company XL Group plc Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Norfolk & Dedham Group Farmers Insurance Group North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa Northern Neck Insurance Company Funding associations Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Ohio Mutual Insurance Group American Insurance Association Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance Company National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies Frankenmuth Insurance Old American Indemnity Company Property Casualty Insurers Association of America
4 Fatal crash trends
5 Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled ,000 55,000 50, per billion 50,894 deaths Motor vehicle crash deaths , ,000 35,000 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled per billion 32,675 deaths 30,
6
7
8 US motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate , ,000 50,000 Motor vehicle crash deaths 15 45, ,000 35,000 30,000 Unemployment rate percent 32,675
9 Year-to-year percent changes in US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate Unemployment rate Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
10 Collision loss trends
11 Collision claim frequencies By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years Claims per 100 insured vehicle years cars pickups SUVs all vehicles 0 change in reporting procedures for 1 company
12 Collision claim severities By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 cars pickups SUVs all vehicles $0 change in reporting procedures for 1 company
13 Collision overall losses By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 cars pickups SUVs all vehicles $0 change in reporting procedures for 1 company
14 Changes in teen driver exposure
15 The Washington Post, Collision Week, Automotive News, The New York Times, Today, The Detroit News, Deseret News,
16 Changes in teen exposure Study design calendar years model years rolling 10 teen exposure 8.7 million years prime exposure covariates study variable 220 million years unemployment spread, census population ratio, GDL intermediate licensing age teen-to-prime exposure ratio
17 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure ,000, ,000, ,000, exposure 15,000, exposure ratio 10,000,000 prime exposure 3.8 teen exposure 5,000,000 teen to prime ratio
18 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure , indexed to exposure exposure ratio prime exposure teen exposure teen to prime ratio
19 Comparison of national teen and prime unemployment rates unemployment rate prime unemployment teen unemployment unemployment spread
20 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure , indexed to exposure ratio unemployment spread 3.7 teen to prime ratio unemployment spread
21 Teen technology
22 Collision claim frequencies and violent crime rates
23 Violent crime rate calendar years model year exposure 478,859,131 claims 2,935,483 independent variables vehicle age, vehicle type, rated driver age, gender, marital status, deductible, risk, registered vehicle density, state, percent of resident with high school or higher education, violent crime rate, and violent crime rate by driver age
24 Increase in collision claim frequency for each additional violent crime per 1,000 people By calendar year and rated driver age group 5% 4% 3% < % 1% 0%
25 Alcohol related fatalities and enforcement 2014 motor vehicle fatalities: 31 percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers had BAC 0.08 percent Impact of alcohol enforcement: A review of studies of sobriety checkpoint programs found a median decline of 22 percent in fatal crashes thought to involve alcohol (Elder, et. al., 2002). In the absence of special enforcement efforts, as few as 1 in 2,000 drivers with a high BAC are arrested (Williams, 1989). An 18 percent reduction in injury and fatal crashes was found in California with roving patrols (Stuster & Blowers, 1995). In Michigan DUI saturation patrols reduced the proportion of alcohol positive drivers involved in fatal crashes by 14 percent (Fell, Tippetts, & Levy, 2008)
26 Speed related fatalities and enforcement 2014 motor vehicle fatalities: Speeding was a factor is 28 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths Impact of speed enforcement: Speed enforcement programs reduce speed related crashes 1-11 percent and the number of vehicles traveling over the limit by percent (Stuster, 1995). Violent crimes decline 1-8 percent in special speed enforcement areas (Stuster, 1995). Average speeds return to pre-enforcement levels after enforcement has been removed (Hauer, et al., 1982).
27 Average vehicle horsepower model years cars pickups SUVs
28 Percent increase in mean vehicle speed per 10 horsepower/100 lb. increase by speed limit speed limit mph speed limit mph speed limit mph
29 Front crash prevention
30
31
32 Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake 0% -10% -20% PDL collision -30% Mazda (smart city brake support) Mazda (smart city brake support & FCW) Volvo City Safety FCA (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord radar (with LDW + ACC) Mercedes- Benz Volvo Acura Mercedes- Benz Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
33 Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% 0% -10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake -20% -30% -40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Mazda low speed Mazda (smart city brake support) Mazda combined MedPay PIP Mazda (smart city brake support & FCW) Volvo City Safety Volvo City Safety Chrysler (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord (includes LDW) warning only FCA (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord Touring Honda Accord radar (with LDW + ACC) Bodily injury liability Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru Volvo (includes warning with autobrake LDW) Mercedes- Benz Volvo Acura Mercedes- Benz Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
34 Front crash prevention systems Change in collision claim severity $1,500 $1,000 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 Mazda Mazda (smart (smart city brake city brake support) support & FCW) Volvo City Safety FCA (with ACC, BSM &RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord radar (with LDW & ACC) Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
35 Honda Accord forward collision warning Camera vs. radar available on trims other than Touring change in collision claim severity -$145 standard on Touring trim change in collision claim severity $522
36 Front crash prevention systems Change in collision overall losses $150 $100 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $50 $0 -$50 -$100 Mazda Mazda (smart (smart city brake city brake support) support & FCW) Volvo City Safety FCA (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord radar (with LDW & ACC) Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
37
38 The percentage of vehicles in the U.S. fleet with advanced safety systems
39 New vehicle series with front crash prevention By model year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% standard optional not available
40 Registered vehicles with front crash prevention By calendar year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% standard optional not available
41 Registered vehicles with available front crash prevention, actual and predicted By calendar year 100% 80% 60% 40% predicted actual 20% 0%
42 Estimated change in PDL claim frequency due to increased fitment of FCW systems Based on estimated effect of 10% 100% 0% vehicles with feature 80% 60% 40% 20% optional assumption: 20% 2020 mandate -5% -10% change in claim frequency 0% -15%
43 Competing visions of autonomous driving
44
45
46 Animal strikes
47 National comprehensive claim frequencies for animal strikes January 2006 through December November August
48 November animal-strike claims Per 1,000 insured vehicle years to to to 14 5 to 9 < 5 does not meet 100 November claims threshold
49 Comprehensive claims and dollars By loss type, models claims vandalism 4.5% dollars vandalism 5.9% animal strike 9.9% other 10.4% weather 5.7% theft 2.0% fire 0.2% animal strike 27.4% other 16.4% weather 23.7% glass 67.4% glass 13.7% theft 10.6% fire 2.3%
50 Point of impact distribution calendar years and model years % 55.9% 14.4% 10.5% 30.2% 11.1% 3.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.7% 2.1% 1.2% 3.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 2.8% 3.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% animal-strike claims 6.1% 16.1% 5.6% collision claims
51 Large animal crash prevention system 2017 Volvo S Volvo XC90
52
53 More information and links to our YouTube channel and Twitter feed at iihs.org iihs.org
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