IMIA INDEX SURVEY 2018

Transcription

1 IMIA INDEX SURVEY 2018 September 2018 Stephan Lämmle

2 Agenda Introduction to the IMIA Engineering Index Survey Presentation of the IMIA Engineering Index 2018 Survey Results Presentation of the IMIA Engineering Index Survey Comparison Presentation of the Expectation vs. Actual Analysis Presentation of the new IIS tool Next steps 2

3 The IMIA Engineering Index Survey - Objective History 1. Index concept introduced in Index announced in IMIA Conference Doha Index Pilot Case conducted in 2016 various revisions followed in EC meetings since 4. Index Survey 2017 sent out on July 6th, 2017 Result presented at 50 th anniversary IMIA conference in Munich for the first time Various interviews and articles 5. Index Survey 2018 sent out on May 10 th, 2018 Result presented at IMIA conference in Singapore TODAY Source: IMIA 3

4 The IMIA Engineering Index Survey - Methodology Methodology 1. Rates in the Index will be based on a significant number of standard risk profiles 2. IMIA members will be asked to provide information about rate changes of risks 3. Data provided should come from policies that have similar characteristics (e.g. standard wording, low NatCat, specified technology, etc.) 4. All data will be compiled ANONYMOUSLY, abnormal results will be doublechecked and eventually a market trend for each type of risk will be obtained 5. Aggregated - it will deliver an INDEX 6. Results are NON-BINDING RELATIVE rate change indications AGAINST A BENCHMARK YEAR for selected typical industry and object codes 4

5 The IMIA Engineering Index Survey Data Segmentation Size of portfolio Position in a placement Location of insurance company Territorial scope of business Construction & Erection Projects / Operational Risks - Selected Industry / Object Types 5

6 Ops Projects The IMIA Engineering Index Survey Data Segmentation Class of Business & Risk Type: CAR Civil / Infrastructure "Building" Civil / Infrastructure "Road EAR Operational Erection / Power Plant Oil & Gas Industry Power Plant Heavy Industries 6

7 The IMIA Engineering Index Survey Compliance Association work In the BER, the European Commission exempted specific forms of cooperation between insurers from the cartel prohibition; in practice, these activities are often coordinated by associations In general, except for activities of this kind that are expressly permitted and that are described below, the work of an association may not be used to coordinate competitive behaviour with other companies or to exchange sensitive information on business policies. In the BER (Insurance Block Exemption Regulation ), the European Commission exempted a) Joint calculation of claims expenditure statistics The BER permits the joint calculation of statistics claims expenditure statistics based on claims experience, mortality tables, similar tables and studies. The basic rationale behind the exemption is that the specific forms of cooperation between insurers from the cartel prohibition; in practice, these company should be allowed to establish the risk development as a basis for costing. At the same time, the calculations should not lead to standardised business policy on the part of the individual member companies. The business policy activities of individual companies are often must coordinated not be identifiable when by associations compiling the statistics. In other words, it should not be possible to identify specific insurers. Furthermore, cooperation is only permitted to the extent necessary to achieve the necessary objectives. It is consequently prohibited to prepare The BER common permits statistics on the gross joint premiums, calculation since these also of statistics encompass company-related or claims expenditure factors and expectations statistics that must be to allocated establish to the area of business policy. It is permissible to prepare claims the expenditure risk development statistics, i.e. based as on net a basis premiums, for that costing describe the average expenditure to cover a precisely defined risk in the past, and to prepare tables, provided the following details are not included: safety loadings The business policy of individual companies must not be identifiable income from reserves (run-off results and interest payments) administrative and sales expenses It (including is permissible internal claims settlement to costs) prepare claims expenditure statistics, i.e. based on net premiums taxes and duties investment proceeds and expected profits It is prohibited to prepare common statistics on gross premiums non-mathematically derived specifications results of studies relating to statements about the future, e.g. GDV (German Insurance Association) studies on the future trends for loss events. These studies may be published in a written document, but must be shown in a properly separated form. The exemption criteria must not be circumvented by having other agents calculate the average operating costs for several companies and then factoring these into the recommended rates, or by printing standardised rate forms. Claims expenditure statistics may specifically include the following: a period set for their calculation the number of loss events in the specified period the number of single risks insured in the observation period in each risk year statistical distinguishing features from which risk groups are formed that contain identical or comparable risks (with as much detail and differentiation as is appropriate and necessary for insurance statistics, and employing the necessary actuarial adjustment methods) the total amount of payments made or owed during this period based on the loss events that occurred the total amount of sums insured per risk year during the selected observation period As well as the calculation of claims expenditure statistics, it is generally permissible to carry out joint studies and to announce the results of these. Studies of this kind are often forecasts of the probable effects of general circumstances beyond the scope of influence of the participating companies, and are concerned with the frequency or scope of future claims in relation to a specific risk or risk category, or deal with the revenue from different types of investment. Claims expenditure statistics and studies, however, can only be exempted on the condition that the participating companies cannot be identified; they are published with a note emphasising their non-binding nature; the companies do not agree to comply strictly with the statistics and studies and any insurance companies that request a copy of the statistics and studies are provided with one under reasonable and non-discriminating conditions. 7

8 The IMIA Engineering Index Survey Compliance Result Sheet from IMIA Secretary Compilation of Result Sheets 8

9 The IMIA Engineering Index Survey 2018 KPI s 1. Index Survey sent out on May 10 th, 2018 vs. July 6 th Survey Return Ratio: > 45% (30%) 3. Respondent company profiles: Size [$US ]: 5 Mio to > 100 Mio Position: Follow to Lead Territorial Scope: National to Global 4. Standarddeviations: < (avg. 39%) (20 (avg. 40%)) 2010 ff 14 30% (avg. 19%) (13 32% (avg. 20%)) 9% 14% 18% 32% 27% < 5 Mio 5 Mio to 20 Mio 20 Mio to 50 Mio 50 Mio to 100 Mio 27% 18% 9% 46% Follower Leader More Follow More Lead 46% 9% 9% 36% National Regional Continental Global dtd. 10/5/2018 9

10 IMIA Engineering Index Survey - Analysis Result 2018 Rate Level Index (2010 = 100) 2008 HU Ike 2005 HU Katrina & Wilma 2017 HIMM 2004 EQ / Tsunami Sri Lanka, Indonesia 2001 WTC 2012 HU Sandy 2011 EQ / Tsunami Fukushima Project Business (Construction / Erection) Civil / Infrastructure "Building" Civil / Infrastructure "Road" Erection / Power Plant 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Oil&Gas Industry Power Plant Heavy Industries Horizontal axes now time proportional Actuarial quality check, outliers and N/A removed All segments continue to show decreases Project business rate decrease seems stronger and coming from a higher level, except O&G Large events with little impact still 10

11 Operational Projects IMIA Engineering Index Survey - Analysis Result 2018 Rate Level Index (2010 = 100) 4.1 Project Business (Construction / Erection) Civil / Infrastructure "Building" 4.1 Project Business (Construction / Erection) Civil / Infrastructure "Road" 4.1 Project Business (Construction / Erection) Erection / Power Plant 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Oil&Gas Industry 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Power Plant 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Heavy Industries 11

12 IMIA Index Development Comparison 2017 and today Project Business (Construction / Erection) Civil / Infrastructure "Building" Civil / Infrastructure "Road" Erection / Power Plant 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Oil&Gas Industry Power Plant Heavy Industries 4.1 Project Business (Construction / Erection) Civil / Infrastructure "Building" Civil / Infrastructure "Road" Erection / Power Plant 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Oil&Gas Industry Power Plant Heavy Industries 12

13 IMIA Index Development Comparison Expectation 2017 and Actuals today Project Business (Construction / Erection) Civil / Infrastructure "Building" 4.1 Project Business (Construction / Erection) Civil / Infrastructure "Building" Civil / Infrastructure "Road" Erection / Power Plant Civil / Infrastructure "Road" Erection / Power Plant 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Oil&Gas Industry 4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown Oil&Gas Industry Power Plant Heavy Industries Power Plant Heavy Industries 13

14 IMIA Index Development Comparison Expectation 2017 and Actuals % 75% 65% 55% Rate Level Index 2018 (2010 = ), Comparison Prognosis, Actual and Level Civil / Infrastructure "Building" Civil / Infrastructure "Road" Erection / Power Plant Oil&Gas Industry Power Plant Prognosis 2018 in 2017 Actual 2018 Actual Heavy Industries Expectation higher than actuals, except for buildings and roads Widest E/A gaps in Energy sectors Steepest drops against 2015 in civil construction All LoB below 2015 values 14

15 IMIA Index self-comparison tool (IIS) Enter own Result Sheet Data in Yellow Box Allows for immediate self-assessment of own figures against market figures Splits automatically into individual Lines of Business Excel Tool will be available on IMIA website after conference 15

16 Next steps Objectives for Collect feedback 2. Repeat survey 3. Motivate for a large number of participations 4. Widen segment analysis 5. Display results on IMIA members area 6. (Collect survey data via web-page) 16

17 Thank you for your attention and Please respond 17