Welcoming Remarks. Tom Ruggieri CEO, Advisen

Transcription

1

2

3 Welcoming Remarks Tom Ruggieri CEO, Advisen

4 Keynote Presentation Sanjay Godhwani Property Product Line Executive Chartis US & Canada

5 Sanjay Godhwani Property Product Line Executive

6 Overview of the Property Insurance Market

7 3/1/ /1/2001 5/1/ /1/2002 7/1/2003 2/1/2004 9/1/2004 4/1/ /1/2005 6/1/2006 1/1/2007 8/1/2007 3/1/ /1/2008 5/1/ /1/2009 7/1/2010 2/1/2011 9/1/2011 The Pricing Cycle Advisen ADVx Price Change Index 180 ADVx Property ADVx Property

8 The Pricing Cycle ADVx Property versus Composite

9 The Pricing Cycle The Impact of Catastrophes

10 The Pricing Cycle Capacity: Surplus as % GDP

11 The Pricing Cycle Surplus as % GDP/Insured Cat Losses

12 Retentions Revenue > $250M Source: Advisen

13 Market Share Revenue > $1 Billion Source: Advisen

14 Market Share Revenue $300 Million - $1 Billion Source: Advisen

15 Market Share Revenue < $300 Million Source: Advisen

16 The Risk Manager s Perspective Al Tobin Managing Principal & National Property Leader Aon

17 The Risk Manager s Perspective Al Tobin, Managing Principal & National Property Leader, Aon Lois Fuchs, VP, Risk Management, Honeywell James Curtin, VP, Risk Management, Vornado Realty Trust

18 Sponsored Break

19 Understanding & Managing Tornado Risk David Bradford President, Research & Editorial Advisen

20 Understanding & Managing Tornado Risk David Bradford, President, Research & Editorial, Advisen David Finnis, National Property Practice Leader, Willis Lou Gritzo, Vice President & Manager of Research, FM Global Tom Hall, Sr. Risk Engineering Consultant, Natural Hazards, Zurich

21 Measuring Ferocity FUJITA TORNADO DAMAGE SCALE SCALE WIND ESTIMATE *** (MPH) TYPICAL DAMAGE F0 < 73 Light damage. Some damage to chimneys; branches broken off trees; shallow-rooted trees pushed over; sign boards damaged. F F F F F Moderate damage. Peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos blown off roads. Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars overturned; large trees snapped or uprooted; lightobject missiles generated; cars lifted off ground. Severe damage. Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown. Devastating damage. Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated. Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters (109 yds); trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur. Developed in 1971 by T. Theodore Fujita of the University of Chicago) Source: NOAA.Gov 21

22 Enhanced Fujita February 1, 2007 FUJITA SCALE DERIVED EF SCALE OPERATIONAL EF SCALE F Number Fastest 1/4- mile (mph) 3 Second Gust (mph) EF Number 3 Second Gust (mph) EF Number 3 Second Gust (mph) Over

23 How Many F5 Tornadoes? 49 F5 Tornadoes since 1950 Enhanced Fujita Scale replaces Fujita Scale February 1, EF5 Tornadoes since February 1, 2007 Why did EF Scale replace Fujita Scale? Fujita Scale recalibrated to more accurately match tornado speeds with their damage and To augment / refine damage descriptors 23

24 What Have We Seen Since 1950? No true pattern Year # of Tornadoes (but 4 in the same weather system) 24

25 What Have We Seen Since 1950? Joplin 5/22/ Fatalities States Which Lead the Way: 1 st Place - 7 Alabama 2 nd Place (Tie) 6 Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas 25

26 Tornadoes by State Number of Tornadoes Tornadoes per 10,000 sq miles 1 Texas Florida 2 Kansas Kansas 3 Florida Maryland 4 Oklahoma Illinois 5 Nebraska Mississippi 6 Illinois Iowa 7 Iowa Oklahoma 8 Missouri South Carolina 9 Alabama Alabama 10 Mississippi Louisiana Source: NOAA

27

28 Wind Damage

29 Wind Damage

30 Joplin Tornado, May 2011 Source: Dustie Meads

31 Joplin Tornado, May 2011 Source: Dustie Meads

32 Joplin Tornado, May 2011 Source: Dustie Meads

33 Joplin Tornado, May 2011 Source: Dustie Meads

34 Joplin Tornado, May 2011 Source: Dustie Meads

35 Joplin Tornado, May 2011 Source: Dustie Meads

36 Contingent Business Interruption Insurance: Underwriting, Coverage and Claim Issues Lou Adanio Executive Vice President & Chief Underwriting Officer, Property Insurance Alterra

37 Contingent Business Interruption Insurance: Underwriting, Coverage and Claim Issues Lou Adanio, EVP & CUO, Property Insurance, Alterra John Dempsey, CEO, Dempsey Partners Jamie Miller, Managing Director, Swiss Re Corporate Solutions Richard Lewis, Partner, Reed Smith Michael LaRocca, VP, Global Corporate Property Underwriting, Zurich

38 Keynote Presentation Mark Lyons CEO Arch Worldwide Insurance Group

39 Mark Lyons CEO

40 Advisen Property Insights Conference M. Lyons June 5, 2012

41 Today s Topics US Industry Results Worldwide Market Results (Lloyd s, Bermuda) CAT Losses Risk Management & Concentration Risk Industry Rate Changes Gross ROE versus Net ROE Capital Market Capacity

42 USA Results Per Dowling & Partners (with SNL Financial) Source: Dowling & Partners

43 USA Results: AM Best & ISO/PCI Source: Dowling & Partners

44 Lloyd s Exhibit of WW Markets Results

45 Lloyd s Return on Capacity by U/W Year Source: Dowling & Partners

46 Lloyd s 2010/2011 Comparative Results Source: Dowling & Partners

47 Lloyd s Major Claims History

48 Bermuda CAT Losses

49 Carriers with most 2011 CAT Losses

50 Carrier Risk Tolerance Performance

51 S&P Enterprise Risk Management Ratings

52 4 Rate Change Barometers Source: Dowling & Partners

53 Middle Market Rate Changes: An Indicator of Risks Returning to E&S Market? Source: Dowling & Partners

54 CIAB Rate Changes by Account Size

55 CIAB Rate Changes by LOB

56 Rate Changes Beyond the Average: Commercial Property

57 Gross vs. Net ROE Reinsurance dependent LOB Starts with gross line capacity & appetite relative to capital Net vs. ceded decisions on CAT, large risk losses, normal attritional QS, XOL, CAT QS -> Occurrence Limit and Ceding Commission Occurrence Limit -> Balance Sheet Ceding Commission -> Income Statement XOL/CAT - > No expense relief; pricing quickly market reactive Leaves primary insurers chasing their tail to achieve at least

58 CAT Bond Activity

59 CAT Bond Pricing

60 The Uses and Misuses of Catastrophe Models Carl Hedde Senior Vice President, Head of Risk Accumulation Munich Re

61 The Uses and Misuses of Catastrophe Models Carl Hedde, SVP- Head of Risk Accumulation, Munich Re Bill Keogh, President, Strategic Initiatives, EQECAT Eyal Shnaps, Manager, U.S RiskMarkets Advisory Group, RMS Glen Daraskevich, SVP and Head of Consulting Group, Karen Clark & Co Susan Denike, Managing Director, Guy Carpenter

62 Sponsored Break

63 The Unique Vulnerability of New York City to Hurricane Destruction Dr. Nicholas Coch Professor, Queens College

64 The State of the Property Insurance Market David Bradford President, Research & Editorial Division Advisen

65 The State of the Property Insurance Market David Bradford, President, Research & Editorial Division, Advisen Richard Shaak, President, StarrTech, The Starr Companies Duncan Ellis, Managing Director & Global Property Leader, Marsh Joe Tocco, EVP & Head of NA Property and GAPS, XL Vince Reyda, Vice President Operations Manager, FM Global

66 Keynote Presentation David Pagoumian CEO NAPCO

67 David Pagoumian CEO

68 Closing Remarks David Bradford President, Research & Editorial, Advisen

69

70 Thank for you attending! Check for information on our other upcoming events