Shaping change in insurance Munich Re equity story

Transcription

1 Image: Getty Images/fStop Shaping change in insurance Munich Re equity story March 2017

2 Equity story Shaping change in insurance Why invest in Munich Re Strong track record Successfully dealing with challenging economic conditions We remain a strong partner for clients and reliable for shareholders, delivering on our promises Business strategy Focus on insurance risks safeguarding sustainable value creation Complementary business profiles limiting correlation to capital market development Rigorous risk management Based on a high level of diversification, actively managing the low-yield environment and strictly budgeting all our insurance risks Strong capital position Continuously built up over years Continuing the long-term track record of attractive capital repatriation while keeping the flexibility to seize opportunities for profitable growth Munich Re March

3 Equity story Munich Re at a glance Key financials Munich Re Gross written premiums bn Operating result m 4,025 4,819 4,028 4,398 5,349 Taxes on income m Consolidated result m 2,581 3,122 3,171 3,333 3,204 Investments bn Return on equity % Equity bn Off-balance-sheet reserves 1 bn Net technical provisions bn Staff at 31 December 43,428 43,554 43,316 44,665 45,437 Our shares Earnings per share Dividend per share Amount distributed m 1,338 1,329 1,293 1,254 1,255 Share price at 31 December Market capitalisation at 31 December bn No. of shares at year-end m Including amounts attributable to minority interests and policyholders. Munich Re March

4 Equity story Munich Re delivers financial stability IFRS net income 2.6bn Meeting guidance HGB distributable earnings 4.2bn Safeguards capital repatriation Dividend per share % Solvency II ratio 267% Well above target capitalisation Debt leverage 12.6% One of the lowest in the insurance industry Goodwill 8.9% Moderate in relation to shareholders equity 1 Subject to approval of AGM. 4

5 Equity story... in an uncertain environment Seizing long-term opportunities while managing short-term pressure Changing competitive landscape Emergence of new players and business models Proliferation of alternative capital Transformation of traditional value chain Digitalisation New technologies and partnerships Dramatically enhanced availability of data and analysis tools Changing customer expectations Macroeconomic/political risks Persistently low interest rates Reflation Global political uncertainty GOAL Agile business model Source: Shutterstock [M] GOAL Fostering innovation GOAL Dampening volatility 5

6 Equity story Rigorous risk management Responding to perception of great uncertainty Preparedness and resilience Risk assessment based on forward-looking scenarios Active exposure management, e.g. for financial sector, country risk and emerging markets Review of hedging strategy, e.g. FX and inflation risks Business-enabling with attractive risk-return profile Increasing risk appetite for complex and large risks Property-casualty single risks Emerging risks (e.g. cyber) Structured, tailored solutions GOAL Dampening volatility Source: Shutterstock [M] GOAL Turning uncertainty into business opportunities 6

7 Equity story Business strategy Realising synergies and economies of scope by combining primary and reinsurance under one roof Agile business model Segmental breakdown Reinsurance Property-casualty 17.8 (36%) bn ERGO Life and Health Germany 9.2 (19%) Reinsurance Well positioned to manage the current market environment and drive innovation P-C: Efficiently running the traditional book, steady expansion of innovative products/solutions strong reserving position Life/Health: Strong position in all major markets increasing contribution from initiatives portfolio Reinsurance Life and Health 13.6 (28%) TOTAL 48.9bn ERGO P-C Germany 3.2 (7%) ERGO International 5.1 (10%) ERGO Turnaround initiated, well on track to become a significant earnings contributor L/H Germany: Continuously improving risk/return profile, comprehensive management of back book P-C Germany: Attractive business mix International: Strong presence in selected developed markets, capture opportunities in growth markets 1 Gross written premium as at After reallocation of Munich Health business. Munich Re March

8 Equity story Reinsurance Well positioned to manage the current market environment and drive innovative solutions New Markets Established ILLUSTRATIVE Traditional reinsurance Tailor-made solutions Emerging markets Risk Solutions Underinsurance in developed markets New products/ risk-related services Solutions for emerging risks Incremental innovations Traditional reinsurance Successfully managing the soft cycle Risk Solutions Continuous growth in specialty and niche business Innovation Steady expansion of innovative products/solutions TOTAL 1,2 23bn TOTAL 1 4.8bn TOTAL 1,3 ~ 650m Established Products New 1 Premiums as at Life (traditional and strategic initiatives): 10bn, traditional P-C: 13bn. 3 Munich Re (Group); indirect effects on traditional business not included. 8

9 Equity story Traditional p-c reinsurance Portfolio profitability protected by disciplined underwriting Profitable core business Preferential client access ~50% private placements 1 ~2/3 direct client business TOTAL 2 13bn Renewals Nominal price changes % 2.4 Leading risk know-how ~30% tailor-made solutions 1 Comprehensive service offering Superior diversification Stringent cycle management As regards perils, forms of cover, regions, short/long-tail Strong u/w discipline and conservatism in reserving Deliberate portfolio shifts to less commoditised business Traditional portfolio relatively resilient to pressure on rates Diversification provides flexibility in managing the portfolio 1 Related to premium volume in Gross premium written as at January renewals only. Munich Re March

10 Equity story and rigorous portfolio/cycle management Ensures portfolio profitability above cost of capital Portfolio management based on economic management principles 1 Other Casualty Property CAGR: ~ 6% CAGR: ~+11% CAGR: ~ 3% Low Pricing pressure High Other Casualty Property ILLUSTRATIVE Property Continuous reduction as economic profitability declined Casualty Less pricing pressure increased relative contribution to value generation Premium development 0% Share in value generation 2 100% 1 Bubble size reflects gross premiums written in 2013 (grey) 2016 (blue). 2 Economic profit. 10

11 Equity story Tailor-made solutions Preferred partner for large transactions, strong deal pipeline in all markets Profitability 1 % Tailor-made Traditional RI Cost of capital Traditional RI Tailor-made Property Premium bn ILLUSTRATIVE % 4% 17% 42% Casualty 6.3 Highly structured treaties with lower risk-capital consumption competitive advantage due to diversification benefits in our internal model Mid double-digit number of active, customised deals Deep risk expertise and capital management know-how represent perfect fit for insurers seeking capital-triggered solutions high consulting quality and capacity 1 Economic profitability (RORAC). 2 Contract year view. 11

12 Equity story Risk Solutions Active portfolio management and investments to secure strong earnings contribution Gross earned premiums 1 Combined ratio 1 % Underwriting result 1 bn 3.4 Share in % of total P-C book TOTAL 4.8bn Share in % of total P-C book Drivers in 2016 Gross earned premiums Consolidation following strong growth in past years Exit from financial institutions business at American Modern Combined ratio Hartford Steam Boiler with highest result contribution Burdening effect from run-off business, IT investments and outlier losses 12

13 Equity story Munich Re fosters innovation throughout the global organisation Strong focus on tangible business impact Significant focus on innovation Innovation infrastructure Innovation scouting Innovation labs Ideation Corporate partnering with significant impact on business already today Innovation areas Innovation enabler 1 New (re)insurance products 2 New business models 3 New clients and demands 4 New risk-related services Data analytics Agile IT Innovation-related business already sizeable TOTAL 1 ~ 650m Risk carrier for established and new (digital) insurance and non-insurance companies Provider of integrated risk services (e.g. sensor-based) Tailored risk solutions and white-label products Collaboration Data analytics-based services 1 Munich Re (Group); indirect effects on traditional business not included. 13

14 Equity story Strong long-term growth in cyber (re)insurance expected Munich Re with leading-edge expertise and market presence 1 New (re)insurance products GWP global cyber insurance market 1 US$ bn GWP Munich Re cyber portfolio US$ m 10 RoW US Reinsurance Primary insurance Reinsurance: First mover and global market leader Dynamic growth through joint projects with cedents Steady growth in the US Strong accumulation models Primary insurance: Specialised single-risk taker Hartford Steam Boiler: Established player in US for SMEs and individuals Corporate Insurance Partner: Focus on larger corporate clients Cooperation with IT providers and Beazley 1 Estimates based on different external sources (Marsh & McLennan, Barbican Insurance, Allianz). 14

15 Equity story Reinsurance Life Core business supplemented by well established initiatives Higher ILLUSTRATIVE Longevity Asia Morbidity FinMoRe Asset protection IFRS technical result Adjusted Target 400m m Return Mortality Lower Higher Risk Compared to competitors Overweight Underweight Neutral Unique Lower Outlook 2017 Technical result plus fee income of at least 450m Munich Re March

16 Equity story ERGO Turnaround initiated, well on track to become a significant earnings contributor ERGO Strategy Programme/International Strategy Increasing IFRS net profit 1 m Fit Digital Successful! 530 ~600+ Leaner and more efficient structures Transforming the business model Convincing solutions, committed to profitable growth From 2017, figures include primary insurance business of Munich Health. 16

17 Equity story Munich Re delivers predictable results despite underlying earnings pressure Predictability Actual net result vs. guidance Guidance 3.2 Actual bn 2.6 Low interest rates Attrition of running yield Munich Re (Group) 3.6% 2.8% Result impact 1 approx. 0.7bn Disposal gains without aggressive harvesting Competition in P-C reinsurance Increasing normalised combined ratio ~100% ~94% Result impact 1 approx. 0.7bn Reserve releases without weakening reserve strength Impact on IFRS net result from 2012 until Rough estimate based on simplified assumption on policyholder participation and tax effects. 17

18 Equity story Strong balance sheet supports sound profitability, Medium Low High Strong capitalisation according to all metrics RoE exceeds cost of capital 16 Value creation % 12 Rock-solid reserving position 8 4 Average cost of capital bn unrealised investment gains 1 ~10.7% > ~8% 12-year average RoE Average cost of capital 1 As at

19 Equity story facilitating attractive shareholder returns Further dividend increase, continuation of 1bn buy-back until AGM 2018 Continuous growth of dividend per share CAGR: 9.7% Dividend yield (%) 8.60 Outperforming major peers and insurance index 2 % Total shareholder return (p.a.) Peer > 23bn Total pay-out since 2005 (dividend and share buy-back) Peer 1 Peer 4 Peer 6 6 Index Peer Peer Volatility of total shareholder return (p.a.) 1 Subject to approval of AGM. 2 Annualised total shareholder return defined as price performance plus dividend yield over the period from until ; based on Datastream total return indices in local currency; volatility calculation with 250 trading days per year. Peers: Allianz, Axa, Generali, Hannover Re, Swiss Re, ZIG, Stoxx Europe 600 Insurance ( index ). 19

20 Equity story Outlook 2017 Group Gross premiums written 48 50bn Reinsurance Gross premiums written 31 33bn ERGO Gross premiums written bn Net result bn Net result bn Net result m Return on investment ~3% Combined ratio 1 ~97% ~99% Germany Combined ratio ~98% International 1 ~100% on a normalised basis (12%-pts. major losses, 4%-pts. reserve releases). Expectation for reserve releases in 2017 ~6%. 20

21 Group 21

22 Backup: Group Financial highlights net result meets annual guidance Munich Re (Group) Net result Technical result m Investment result m 2,581m (Q4: 486m) Sound underlying performance without dilution of strong balance sheet investments in ERGO strategy programme and FX gains Return on investment 1 3,924 2,815 1, ,536 7,567 1,664 1, (Q4 2016) Net result m 3,122 2, % (Q4: 2.7%) Solid return given low interest rates prudent asset-liability management once again proved beneficial Q Reinsurance Q Q ERGO Q Q Munich Health Q Shareholders' equity 31.8bn ( 1.8% vs ) Strong capitalisation according to all metrics Life: Technical result 487m (Q4: 169m) P-C: Combined ratio 95.7% (Q4: 101.9%) Major-loss ratio 9.1% (Q4: 14.8%) L/H Germany: Result impacted technical one-offs P-C: Combined ratio 97.0% (Q4: 100.0%) International: Combined ratio 99.0% (Q4: 100.4%) Reinsurance: Combined ratio 99.5% (Q4: 95.4%) Primary insurance: Combined ratio 94.2% (Q4: 98.8%) 1 Annualised. 22

23 Backup: Group Financial highlights 2016 Reconciliation of operating result with net result Reconciliation of operating result with net result m 2016 Q Operating result 4, Other non-operating result Goodwill impairments Net finance costs Taxes Net result 2, Other non-operating result m Tax rates % 2016 Q Foreign exchange Restructuring expenses Other Q Group Reinsurance ERGO Munich Health

24 Backup: Group Short-term earnings pressure mitigated by strong balance sheet Investment result bn P-C reinsurance Release of loss reserves 1 % Ongoing disposal gains Lower reinvestment yields Strong reserving position Reinsurance cycle Net disposal gains Unrealised gains Part of the valuation reserves realised as a result of usual portfolio turnover Ongoing releases of loss reserves without weakening resilience against future volatility Conservative accounting translates into earnings as a result of ordinary business activity 1 Basic losses, in % of net earned premiums, adjusted for corresponding commission effects. 24

25 Backup: Group Capital position Strong capital position according to all metrics facilitates financial flexibility, including high shareholder distribution Solvency II IFRS German GAAP/Rating % bn bn Tier 1 90% SII ratio well above target capitalisation TOTAL 40.7bn Tier 2 8% Tier 3 2% Sound shareholders equity % Strengthened equalisation provision largely protects HGB earnings A AA Rating agencies AAA High-quality eligible own funds Debt leverage 1 among the lowest in the insurance industry Substantial capital buffer 2 supports AA rating 1 Strategic debt (senior, subordinated and other debt) divided by total capital (strategic debt + equity). 2 S&P capital. 25

26 Backup: Group IFRS capital position Sound shareholders equity, low debt leverage Equity m Capitalisation bn Equity ,966 Change Q4 Consolidated result 2, Changes Dividend 1,329 Unrealised gains/losses Exchange rates Share buy-backs Other Equity , Unrealised gains/losses Fixed-interest securities 2016: 37m Q4: 2,390m Non-fixed-interest securities 2016: + 304m Q4: + 335m Exchange rates FX effect mainly driven by US$ Q Q Q Q Debt leverage 1 (%) Senior and other debt 2 Subordinated debt Equity 1 Strategic debt (senior, subordinated and other debt) divided by total capital (strategic debt + equity). 2 Other debt includes Munich Re bank borrowings and other strategic debt. 26

27 Backup: Group German GAAP capital position Significant increase in local result of parent company safeguards financing of capital repatriation bn bn Distributable earnings Dividend/ buy-back HGB result 2016 Other 1 Distributable earnings HGB result 2015 Underwriting result Investment result Other HGB result Average Higher major losses, lower reserve releases Intragroup disposal gains (2016) vs. write-down on ERGO (2015) Relief in equalisation provision expected in Changes in restrictions on distribution. 27

28 Backup: Group Economic earnings Economic earnings 2016 Munich Re (Group) Outlook 2017: In the range of IFRS result target bn Actual Normalised Operating economic earnings Expected return existing business 0.6 New business value 1.0 Operating variances existing business 0.2 Economic effects Interest rate 0.0 Equity 0.3 Credit 0.9 Currency 0.8 Other Other non-operating earnings Total economic earnings Total economic earnings Operating economic earnings High operating economic earnings in reinsurance compensate for negative ERGO contribution; normalised for reinsurance P-C prudency margin of 0.7bn, new business value amounts to 1.7bn Normalisation: Operating economic earnings adjusted for variances in new and existing business Economic effects Effects from development of capital market parameters very pleasing overall, however diverse across segments: Reinsurance with high economic gains on risk-free interest rates, credit spreads, FX and equities; economic losses at ERGO driven by further interest-rate decline over the year Normalisation: Adjusted to lower expectation in reinsurance and higher at ERGO Other non-operating earnings Normalisation: Other non-operating earnings adjusted to expected tax rate (all other line items pre-tax) and other items 1 Primarily related to illiquid investments: Property, infrastructure, forestry, hedge funds, private equity. 28

29 Backup: Group Economic earnings P&L attribution Pleasing economic earnings overall Reinsurance compensates for adverse development at ERGO Munich Re (Group) 2016 bn Reinsurance Life Reinsurance P-C ERGO L/H Germany ERGO P-C Germany ERGO International Munich Health Munich Re (Group) Operating economic earnings Expected return existing business New business value Operating variances existing business Economic effects Other non-operating earnings Total economic earnings Capital measures 2.3 Changes in other own funds items 0.0 Change in SII eligible own funds

30 Backup: Group Risk disclosure Strong SII ratio SII ratio development 1 302% % SII ratio Opening adjustments incl. model changes Capital measures Expectation Operating and non-op. variances Capital market variances SII ratio EOF 40.7bn bn SCR 13.5bn bn 1 Expected EOF change refers to normalised economic earnings; all figures including tax effect. 30

31 Backup: Group Risk disclosure Given high levels of uncertainty, risk profile remains relatively stable Breakdown of solvency capital requirement (SCR) Property-casualty Life and Health Market Credit Operational risk Other bn Increase largely driven by FX, low interest rates, business growth in Life Reinsurance and model refinements 9.9 Munich Re s SII ratio 1 277% % 267% bn bn EOF SCR SII ratio in a very comfortable range, with flexibility for additional risk taking 1 All figures do not include effects of transitionals or long-term-guarantee (LTG) measures, e.g. volatility adjustment. 2 Ratio after dividend of ~ 1.3bn for 2016 to be paid in April 2017: 258%. SII ratio considering transitionals for ERGO Leben and Victoria Leben: 316%. 31

32 Backup: Group Risk disclosure Breakdown of solvency capital requirement (SCR) by risk category and segment Group RI ERGO MH Div. Risk category ( bn) Delta Remarks Property-casualty Life and Health Market Credit Appreciation of US$ Low-interest-rate environment Model reflects negative interest rates Operational risk Reassessment of cyber scenarios Other Change in disclosure Simple sum Diversification Diversification benefit: 36% Tax Total SCR Low interest-rate environment largest determinant of SCR changes 1 Capital requirements for associated insurance undertakings and other financial sectors, e.g. institutions for occupational retirement provisions. 32

33 Backup: Group Risk disclosure Property-casualty risk High global diversification, both within nat cat risks and between major and basic losses Nat cat exposure (net of retrocession) AggVaR 1 bn SCR property-casualty bn 5 4 Top 5 exposures 1 Atlantic Hurricane 2 Earthquake Los Angeles 3 Storm Europe 4 Cyclone Australia 5 Earthquake Japan Basic losses Major losses 2 Diversification Total Top nat cat exposures Overall, portfolio remained stable vs. last year SCR increase mainly due to FX, esp. strong US$, affecting major and basic losses 1 Munich Re (Group). Return period 200 years, pre-tax. 2 Natural catastrophes, man-made (including terrorism and casualty accumulation) and major single losses. 33

34 Backup: Group Risk disclosure Development of Munich Re s Solvency II ratio Munich Re actions >220%: Above target capitalisation Capital repatriation Increased risk-taking Holding excess capital to meet external constraints SII ratio % 267% 175% 220%: Target capitalisation Optimum level of capitalisation 140% 175%: Below target capitalisation Tolerate (management decision) or If necessary, take management action (e.g. risk transfer, scalingdown of activities; raising of hybrid capital) <140%: Sub-optimal capitalisation Take risk-management action (e.g. risk transfer, scaling-down of activities; raising of hybrid capital) or In exceptional cases, tolerate situation (management decision) 220% 175% 140% 100% Transition into SII metric. 34

35 Backup: Group Risk disclosure Sensitivities of SII ratio SII ratio Sensitivity % Ratio as at Interest rate +50bps 1 Interest rate 50bps 1 Spread +100bps GOV 2 Spread +100bps CORP 2 Equity markets +30% Equity markets 30% FX 20% Inflation +100bps 3 Atlantic Hurricane 4 UFR 50bps Volatility adjustment Parallel shift until last liquid point, extrapolation to unchanged UFR. 2 Due to diversification, spread sensitivity simultaneously stressing GOV and CORP spreads (226%) is lower than the sum of shown separate sensitivities. 3 Based on CPI inflation. 4 Based on 200-year event

36 Backup: Group Reserving position Actual versus expected comparison Loss-monitoring yields consistent picture across years Reinsurance group Comparison of incremental expected losses with actual reported losses 1 m By exposure year 10,000 1, Actual reported loss Actuals for first run-off year (2015) are 10% below expectations consistent with picture in previous years and prior By line of business Marine Engineering Credit Risks other Property Personal accident Expected reported loss Aviation Expected reported loss ,000 10, ,000 10,000 Legend: Green Actuals below expectation Solid line Actuals equal expectation Red Actuals above expectation Dotted line Actuals are 50% above/below expectations 10,000 1,000 Actual reported loss Very stable actual versus expected development per line of business Fire Third-party-liability Motor Actual losses consistently below actuarial expectations Very strong reserve position 1 Reinsurance group losses as at Q4 2016, not including parts of Risk Solutions, special liabilities and major losses (i.e. events of over 10m or US$ 15m for Munich Re's share). 36

37 Backup: Group Reserving position Positive run-off result without weakening resilience against future volatility Ultimate losses 1 (adjusted to exchange rates as at ) m Accident year (AY) Date Total , ,659 12, ,145 12,928 14, ,478 12,824 14,440 13, ,900 12,742 14,383 13,891 14, ,694 12,704 14,083 13,385 14,522 18,544 Ultimate reduction Prior-year releases of 1.4bn driven by reinsurance portfolio Favourable actual vs. expected comparison facilitates ultimate reductions for prior years Reserve position remains strong ,193 12,320 13,924 13,243 14,388 18,646 15, ,125 12,064 13,751 13,216 14,475 18,307 14,972 15, ,894 11,978 13,471 12,890 14,512 17,901 14,742 15,325 15, ,588 11,744 13,330 12,663 14,318 17,771 14,519 15,270 15,128 14, ,339 11,771 13,241 12,618 14,081 17,298 14,482 14,953 15,089 14,408 15,336 CY 2016 runoff change CY 2016 runoff change (%) , Reinsurance 2 1,268m ERGO 144m 1 Basic and major losses; accident year split partly based on approximations. 2 Thereof 1,148m basic and 120m major losses. 37

38 Backup: Group Outstanding bonds Munich Re (Group) Outstanding bonds Subordinated bonds 1 Nominal volume Coupon rate p. a. Emission/Issue Maturity First possible redemption date 900m Until %, thereafter variable May m Until %, thereafter variable May ,000m Until %, thereafter variable May ,349m Until %, thereafter variable 2007 Undated 12 June m Until %, thereafter variable June 2018 Maturity pattern m Currency pattern % 2,427 USD 9 EUR ,374 TOTAL 4.5bn undated GBP 19 1 Bonds with a nominal value below 100m not considered. All specified bonds issued by Münchener Rückversicherungsgesellschaft AG, Munich. In addition, Munich Re has placed some natural catastrophe bonds. As at Munich Re March

39 Backup: Group Corporate responsibility Broad external recognition for Munich Re s corporate responsibility performance Permanently listed since 2001 Permanently listed since 2001 The STOXX Global ESG Leaders Index represents leading companies from an ESG point of view Munich Re has been included in the Bronze Class of the best and most sustainable companies by Robeco SAM Munich Re has constantly achieved high rating results (AAA) in the MSCI ESG rating Ranked 3rd place in the insurance industry Rated "Prime" in Corporate Responsibility Rating 2015; Munich Re counts to the best-in-class insurers Munich Re is represented in the ESI Excellence Europe and ESI Excellence Global (based on ratings results from Vigeo) Munich Re represented in Vigeo indexes Munich Re March

40 Backup: Group Corporate responsibility Munich Re s international cooperation A strong commitment towards corporate responsibility Examples since 1999 since 2006 since 2007 since 2012 UNEP FI Munich Re has signed the UNEP FI s climate declaration and is an active member of the UNEP FI Climate Change Working Group. Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) Munich Re has actively developed the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), which it signed as first German company in April UN Global Compact Munich Re has been a member of the UN Global Compact since August The ten principles of the UN Global Compact provide guidance for action in our business and set the basis for our corporate responsibility activities. Principles for Sustainable Insurance (PSI) Munich Re played an active part in developing the Principles for Sustainable Insurance (PSI) since 2007 and was a founding signatory in June The PSI aim at anchoring ESG criteria in the core business along the value chain. Munich Re March

41 Reinsurance 41

42 Backup: Reinsurance Munich Re The leading global reinsurer Rank Company Country Net reinsurance premiums written 2015 (US$ m) 1 Munich Re Germany 33,624 2 Swiss Re Switzerland 30,442 3 Hannover Re Germany 16,121 4 Berkshire Hathaway Re USA 13,382 5 SCOR France 13,111 6 Lloyd s UK 10,021 7 Reinsurance Group of America USA 8,571 8 China Re China 7,717 9 Everest Re Bermuda 5, Partner Re Bermuda 5, Korean Re Korea 3, MS&AD Holdings Japan 3, Transatlantic Holdings Inc. USA 3, Sompo Japan 2, Tokio Marine Japan 2, Mapfre Re Spain 2, Maiden Re Bermuda 2, General Ins. Corp. of India India 2, R+V Versicherung Germany 2, XL Catlin Bermuda 2,091 Total top ,687 Source: Standard & Poor's, 9 September Munich Re March

43 Backup: Reinsurance Reinsurance Overview Gross written premiums bn Investments bn Net technical provisions bn Major losses (net) m 1,542 1,046 1,162 1,689 1,799 Thereof natural catastrophes m ,284 Combined ratio % Premium split by region 2016 % Combined ratio Basic losses Africa, Middle East Latin America 5 Asia and Australasia 16 Europe 29 TOTAL 27.8bn North America 47 Munich Re March

44 Backup: Reinsurance Reinsurance Property-casualty 2016 vs Gross premiums written m Major result drivers m ,680 Foreign exchange 385 Divestments/investments 0 Organic change ,826 Negative FX effects mainly driven by GBP Organic growth due to several new deals, particularly in motor and fire Technical result 1,859 3,116 1,258 Non-technical result thereof investment result 1,589 2, Other Net result 2,025 2, Q Q Technical result 217 1,247 1,030 Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result 264 1, Technical result FY: Major loss ratio below expectation of 12.0% Q4: Major losses of 14.8% in Q4 FY: Higher basic losses: Lower reserve releases, rate deteriorations and various larger claims just below the outlier threshold in H1 Investment result FY: Reduced disposal gains and lower regular income only partly offset by decreased net write-downs Other FY: FX result of 445m vs. 132m, high contribution from GBP FY: Tax rate of 21.4% vs. 12.8% 44

45 Backup: Reinsurance Combined ratio Combined ratio % Basic losses Major losses Expense ratio Q Major losses Nat cat Man-made Reserve releases 1 Normalised combined ratio Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Ø Annual expectation ~12.0 ~8.0 ~4.0 ~ Basic losses prior years, incl. asbestos, environmental, workers compensation discount amortisation and retrocession effects adjusted for corresponding commission effects (sliding scale offset and other commission effects), reserve release not taking commission effects into account amounts to 6.2% for 2016 and 8.7% for Q Based on 4%-pts. reserve releases. 45

46 Backup: Reinsurance Traditional book and Risk Solutions complement each other and provide diversification Total P-C book % 1 Traditional % 2 Risk Solutions % Risk Solutions 27 (28) Tailor-made solutions 23 (18) Nat cat XL 10 (10) Casualty 47 (47) Other 24 (23) American Modern 22 (23) TOTAL 1 18bn TOTAL 13bn Watkins 8 (9) TOTAL 5bn Hartford Steam Boiler 21 (19) Other traditional business 50 (54) Other property 34 (33) Specialty 2 9 (10) Specialty markets 13 (13) Corporate Insurance Partner 3 12 (13) Demand for tailor-made solutions compensates for the reduction in other traditional business Risk Solutions an important pillar for top-line contribution Well balanced traditional portfolio Slight shift from specialty lines to other property Dominated by US business More than 50% HSB top-line growth driven by new innovative products Well balanced portfolio from a regional and line-of-business perspective 1 Gross premiums written property-casualty reinsurance as at ( ). 2 Aviation, marine and credit. 3 Part of Special and Financial Risks providing solutions for large corporate clients. 46

47 Backup: Reinsurance Well balanced portfolio as basis for sustainable earnings generation Traditional % Portfolio developments Aviation 1 (1) Marine 3 (4) Credit 5 (5) TOTAL 13bn Casualty motor 28 (27) Proportional 74 (72) TOTAL 13bn Facultative 9 (9) Share increases Proportional casualty motor and property following the realisation of profitable business opportunities during the year Accordingly, ongoing shift towards proportional business Agro 7 (7) Casualty ex motor 19 (20) XL 17 (19) Share decreases Deliberate reductions in marine (offshore energy) Property ex nat cat XL 27 (26) Property nat cat XL 10 (10) Growth in casualty ex motor below portfolio average Continued reduction of more volatile XL portfolio Increase in proportional business supports earnings resilience 1 Traditional reinsurance, incl. tailor-made solutions. Allocation based on management view, not comparable with IFRS reporting. 47

48 Backup: Reinsurance January renewals 2017 Business up for renewal roughly half of total P-C book Regional focus on Europe Total property-casualty book 1 % Regional allocation of January renewals % Remaining business 28 Business up for January renewal 50 Worldwide 26 Europe 31 Latin America 4 TOTAL 9bn TOTAL 18bn Asia/Pacific/Africa 17 Nat cat shares of renewable portfolio 2 Nat cat Other perils North America 22 % January April July Business up for July renewal 12 Business up for April renewal 10 Total Gross premiums written. Economic view not fully comparable with IFRS figures. 2 Total refers to total P-C book, incl. remaining business. 48

49 Backup: Reinsurance January renewals 2017 Cycle management reduction mitigated by new business opportunities Further slow-down in price decline January renewals 2017 % m 8,982 1,297 7, ,094 8,538 Change in premium 4.9% Thereof price movement 1 ~ 0.5% Thereof change in exposure for our share 4.4% Overall premium decline due to disciplined underwriting partly offset by new business opportunities Price change of 0.5% less pronounced compared with last year Continued pressure on XL business, while price decline for US nat cat lower than in the past Total renewable from 1 January Cancelled Renewed Decrease on renewable New business Estimated outcome Proportional business remains resilient Overall portfolio profitability was maintained and remains above cost of capital 1 Price movement is risk-adjusted, i.e. includes claims inflation/loss trend and is adjusted for portfolio mix effects. Furthermore, price movement is calculated on a wing-to-wing basis (including cancelled and new business). 49

50 Backup: Reinsurance Renewals 2017 Lasting client relationships and our know-how-oriented services offer growth opportunities in a competitive market Total P-C book 1 Treaty business January April July Remaining 28 January 2 50 Worldwide Asia/Pacific/ Africa Worldwide Rest of Asia/ Pacific/Africa Worldwide Rest of Asia/ Pacific/Africa Europe Europe July 12 April 10 TOTAL 18bn NA 3 TOTAL 9.0bn Europe LA 4 Japan NA 3 TOTAL 1.9bn LA 4 Australia/ New Zealand TOTAL 2.1bn LA 4 NA 3 Nat cat share: 13% Focus: Europe Nat cat share: 12% Focus: Japan Nat cat share: 24% Focus: USA, LA, Australia Nat cat share: 19% 50% of total P-C book renewed in January Slightly negative price change of ~ 0.5% Given higher nat cat shares, overall pricing trend will largely depend on development of nat cat prices Capacity and competition expected to be high Profitability-oriented underwriting ensures high portfolio quality 1 Approximation not fully comparable with IFRS figures. 2 Includes Risk Solutions business (16% of January business and 8% of total P-C book). 3 NA = North America. 4 LA = Latin America. 50

51 Backup: Reinsurance Munich Re utilising all ART channels as instrument for risk management and expanded product range Munich Re channels to tap alternative capacity sources Sidecar programme 1 Queen Street programme Retrocession Protection per nat cat scenario 2 m Eden Re II renewed with 2017 series at previous year s level (US$ 360m) Broader investor base and cession with four lines of business Additional cat bond of US$ 190m issued (Queen Street XII) Broadened investor base for fully collateralised cover of Munich Re peakzone risk 1,500 1, Australia Cyclone US Windstorm NE US Windstorm SE Retrocession use reflects favourable market terms and strong Munich Re capital base Enhanced risk management and client offerings on basis of ART channels Combining Munich Re s unique value proposition in managing peak risk with client access to institutional investor capacity Taking advantage of new sources of capital for clients and Munich Re s own book Munich Re ILS service for third parties completes offer as customised stand-alone service or integrated into traditional solutions Broadened distribution channels to ART markets to increase flexibility of Munich Re balance sheet relationship-based approach allows for scaling-up 1 Munich Re structured and arranged transactions. 2 Including indemnity retrocession, ILW/derivatives, risk swaps, cat bonds and the sidecars including Eden Re. Selection of main scenarios. 51

52 Backup: Reinsurance Munich Re's maximum in-force nat cat protection Munich Re's maximum in-force nat cat protection as at January 2017 m 1,500 1,000 Cat bonds Risk swaps Sidecars Indemnity retro US windstorm northeast US windstorm southeast US earthquake EU windstorm EU other perils Japan earthquake Australia cyclone Benefiting from favourable market environment As at January Protection before reinstatement premiums. EU other perils including Earthquake Turkey. Broadening of relationship to end-investors 52

53 Backup: Reinsurance Outstanding insurance-linked securities (ILS) Munich Re's Capital Partners unit is a recognised player in the ILS market For clients For Munich Re s book 1 Transaction Closing Maturity Volume Perils covered Vitality Re VIII Re Ltd. 1/2017 1/2021 US$ 200m US health risks Vitality Re VII Re Ltd. 1/2016 1/2020 US$ 200m US health risks Bosphorus 2 Re Ltd. 8/2015 8/2018 US$ 100m Earthquake Turkey Azzurro Re I Ltd. 6/2015 1/ m Italy Earthquake World Bank CCRIF 6/2014 6/2017 US$ 30m Caribbean Wind & Earthquake Lion Re DAC 4/2014 4/ m Windstorm Europe Eden Re II Ltd. (Series ) 12/2016 3/2021 US$ 360m Various perils Queen Street XII Re DAC 5/2016 4/2020 US$ 190m Hurricane US & Windstorm Europe Queen Street XI Re DAC 12/2015 6/2020 US$ 100m Hurricane US & Cyclone Australia Queen Street X Re DAC 3/2015 6/2018 US$ 100m Hurricane US & Cyclone Australia Queen Street IX Re DAC 2/2014 6/2017 US$ 100m Hurricane US & Cyclone Australia Generation of fee income Active investor in the primary and secondary market Improvement of own risk/return profile and cost efficiency Utilisation of unexhausted risk budgets Offering one-stop shopping to clients as sponsors 1 Excluding private transactions. Munich Re March

54 Backup: Reinsurance Life Reinsurance Life 2016 vs Gross premiums written m Major result drivers m ,536 Foreign exchange 260 Divestments/investments 28 Organic change ,001 Negative FX effects driven by Can$ and GBP Negative organic change due to cancellation/ modification of large capital-relief deals, partly offset by growth in Asia, Canada, UK Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result Q Q Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result Technical result FY: Result well above annual target, despite large losses in Q1 FY: Strong contribution mainly from North America, Europe and Asia supported by one-off effects FY: Reserve releases in H Investment result FY: Lower interest income from deposits retained on assumed reinsurance due to cancellation/modification of large capitalrelief deals FY: Lower disposal gains Other FY: FX result of 123m vs. 58m, high contribution from GBP FY: Tax rate of 28.8% vs. 14.1% 54

55 Backup: Reinsurance Life Well diversified global portfolio 35% 65% Canada 60% United Kingdom 30% 10% Continental 10% Europe 25% 65% Mortality 65 % Morbidity 25 % Longevity 10 % 15% Asia 40% USA 85% 60% 70% 30% NA 60 % Europe 20 % Asia 10 % Latin America 10% 90% 10% South Africa 90% Australia Australia 5 % Africa / LA 5 % North American overweight reflective of size of reinsurance markets Biometric risk exposure dominated by mortality Size of bubbles indicative of present value of future claims. 55

56 Backup: Reinsurance Life Initiative portfolio Financially Motivated Reinsurance Well established value proposition, strong demand prevails Gross premiums written Technical result and fee income NBV 1 m % of total 4,536 4,109 3,356 3,313 2, Technical result Fee income % of total % of total Portfolio development Geographically well diversified portfolio Lower result from scheduled termination of some large treaties 2016 new business again exceptional; approx. 25 new transactions, including large portfolio transaction in Australia New business value dominated by APAC and Europe, including 8 SII-related treaties MCEV, from 2015 Solvency II. Expectations going forward Demand will remain high Transaction types will vary by geographical region Number, size and type of transactions are difficult to predict and will vary on an annual basis 56

57 Backup: Reinsurance Life Strategic focus Asia Vital new business production secures growth across the region Gross premiums written m Technical result and fee income m NBV 1 m 1,178 % of total 1, Technical result % of total Fee income % of total Portfolio development Sustained growth path volume of recurring business steadily increasing Tailor-made market and client strategies Growth supported by broad range of services New business production second only to the exceptionally strong year MCEV, from 2015 Solvency II. Expectations going forward Reinsurance markets will continue their growth path Demand for solvency relief and financing solutions remains high Underwriting discipline remains high although competition and pressure on prices are expected to increase We are watching product trends in critical illness closely 57

58 Backup: Reinsurance Life Initiative portfolio Longevity Book developed carefully in line with risk appetite Gross premiums written m Liability assumed p.a. m Strategic proposition 53 % of total ,788 1,366 1,884 Longevity considered to be primarily a risk management tool to balance mortality portfolio and to stabilise earnings Prudent approach in pricing and valuation because of uncertainty around future mortality trend Portfolio development Expectations going forward Portfolio comprises longevity swaps in UK First transaction concluded in 2011 after in-depth research Executed 1-2 transactions per year to build portfolio carefully and to allow for selective underwriting approach 2014: Participation in one particularly large transaction Evolutionary development of portfolio within clearly defined risk tolerance Careful investigation of expansion into other markets High market potential but also significant pressure on prices Continuation of highly selective approach and prudent valuation (no significant recognition of NBV) 58

59 Backup: Reinsurance Life Initiative portfolio Asset protection Comprehensive solutions to non-biometric financial risks IFRS contribution margin 1 m Product portfolio Strategic proposition Solutions to Basel III and Solvency II needs Resolution of accounting asymmetry ALM solutions for smaller players, i.e. reinsurance solutions for business with significant market risk Wide range of tailor-made solutions Legal, regulatory and structuring expertise State-of-the-art in-house hedging platform Development of modern savings products Portfolio development Portfolio continues to gain significance Growing contribution to NBV Expectations going forward Existing book dominated by Asia/Japan Current opportunities mainly in Europe and Asia/Japan Active exploration of business potential in North America 1 Part of non-technical-result, incl. insurance-related investment result. 59

60 Backup: Reinsurance Life New business profitability RORAC spread 1 % IRR spread 1 % Payback period 2 years 20% 20% 20 15% 15% 15 10% 10% 10 5% 5% 5 0% % Very good new business profitability relative to economic risk capital (RORAC spread) New business profitability relative to total investment in new business (IRR spread) influenced composition of new business portfolio Lower share of business with shorter durations (as typically the case for FinMoRe) slightly increased payback period compared with Spread in addition to reference rate (weighted-average swap yield curves), after tax. 2 Number of years it takes to amortise the total investment in new business through future (undiscounted) earnings distributable to shareholders. 60

61 ERGO 61

62 Backup: ERGO ERGO Overview Gross written premiums bn Investments bn Net technical provisions bn Combined ratio p-c Germany % Combined ratio p-c International % Premium split by region 2016 % Distribution channels Germany New business 2016 % Rest of World 14 Germany 74 Banks/other 5 Tied agents 55 Belgium 2 TOTAL 16.0bn Direct 18 UK 3 Poland 7 Broker 22 Munich Re March

63 Backup: ERGO ERGO Strategy Programme (ESP) Financial impact Net profit impact of ESP overall 1 m P-C Germany Combined ratio % ESP Guidance Actual Net profit impact of investments 2 m Annual cost savings m Gross Net After policyholder participation and taxes, including impact of investments, savings, premium growth and other cost effects on net income. 2 After policyholder participation and taxes Munich Re March

64 Backup: ERGO ERGO Life and Health Germany 2016 vs Gross premiums written m Major result drivers m ,426 Foreign exchange 25 Divestments/investments 0 Organic change ,177 Life: 225m Decline in regular premiums due to ordinary attrition, while single premiums suffered from lower product sales Health: 23m Positive development in supplementary insurance, but overcompensated by discontinuation of a large contract; comprehensive cover flat 1 A small part of expenses from ESP is included in the technical result Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result 4,415 3, Other Net result Q Q Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result Technical result Q4: Positive effect from technical interest due to refined calculation method Q4: Increased shareholder participation at Victoria Leben Investment result FY: Significantly improved derivative result, partly reversed in Q4 FY: Release of unrealised gains for ZZR FY: Lower regular income Other FY: Restructuring expenses include investments 1 of 289m/ 82m (gross/net), mainly in Q2; non-tax deductible goodwill impairment in 2015 (+ 429m) FY: Tax rate of 25.3% vs. 3.0% 64

65 Backup: ERGO ERGO Life Germany Separation of traditional back book and new business strengthens focus Life insurance legal entities back book ERGO Leben Victoria Leben ERGO Pensionskasse Traditional back book New business from portfolio only (legal, contractual obligation) New business ERGO VORSORGE New business promoting capital-light products Special case of underwriting agreements Organisational changes Separation of traditional life back book (~ 3.7bn in premium volume and >5m policies) Establishment of an effective, separate organisational entity with optimised processes (from 2018) Focus on administration Realisation of significant management advantages, e.g. reduced resource conflicts or faster decision-making and improved transparency Comprehensive management Long duration of fixed-income portfolio keeps average yield at relatively high level Asset and liability duration difference <1 year Low bonus rates: 2.25% vs. market average 2.59% Interest-rate hedging programme: protection against reinvestment risk via receiver swaptions since 2005 Cash flow matched for 40 years Risk carrier for new business Concentration on capital-marketrelated and biometric products More efficient set-up and bundling of competencies in capital-marketrelated products Munich Re March

66 Backup: ERGO ERGO Life Germany Key figures and ZZR Average yield vs. average guarantee 4% 2% 0% Key figures 1 avg. yield avg. guarantee Reinvestment yield Average yield ILLUSTRATIVE Average guarantee 2016 ~1.3 ~3.4 ~ ~1.8 ~3.4 ~ ~2.6 ~3.6 ~3.0 % ZZR reference rate Projection 2 % Guarantee level ILLUSTRATIVE Reference rate 3.50 Increase 3.25 Stable 3.00 Decrease ZZR Low interest-rate reserve Local GAAP reserve against low interest rates Expected accumulated ZZR in 2017: ~ 5bn Partly financed through unrealised gains positive impact on IFRS earnings when realised Effect on IFRS net income in 2016: + 22m Key financials 3 bn Free RfB Terminal bonus fund Unrealised gains Accumulate ZZR German GAAP figures for ERGO Leben, Victoria Leben and ERGO Direkt Leben. 2 Based on interest-rate scenarios. 3 German GAAP figures. 66

67 Backup: ERGO ERGO Property-casualty Germany 2016 vs Gross premiums written m Major result drivers m ,162 Foreign exchange 17 Divestments/investments 0 Organic change ,194 Positive development in almost all lines of business 1 A small part of expenses from ESP is included in technical result Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result Q Q Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result Technical result FY: Combined ratio of 97.0% better than 2015; ESP impact on combined ratio ~1%-pts. FY: Lower large losses compared to previous year Q4: Higher impact from nat cat losses in 2015 Investment result FY: Lower disposal gains and decreased regular income Other FY: Restructuring expenses including investments 1 222m/ 151m (gross/net) mainly in Q2 FY: Tax rate of 37.0% vs. 39.1% 67

68 Backup: ERGO ERGO Property-casualty Germany Combined ratio % Gross premiums written 1 m Loss ratio 63.1 Expense ratio 32.2 Other 379 (336) Motor 671 (663) Q Legal protection 401 (395) TOTAL 3,194m Fire/property 559 (577) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Liability 545 (536) Personal accident 638 (654) 1 Fair values as at ( ). 68

69 Backup: ERGO ERGO International 2016 vs Gross premiums written m Major result drivers m ,947 Foreign exchange 119 Divestments/investments 127 Organic change ,664 Negative FX effects driven by PLN, GPB and TRY Life: 394m Poland: Lower sales of bancassurance products Belgium: Decrease mainly due to reclassification of premiums Disposal of ERGO Italia ( 154m) P-C: + 111m Increase mainly driven by rate increases in motor business in Poland and Baltic states First-time consolidation of ATE (+ 46m) Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result Q Q Technical result Non-technical result thereof investment result Other Net result Technical result Life: ( 291m) (FY) Extraordinary DAC write-downs in Belgium ( 149m) Disposal of ERGO Italia as at 30 June P-C: (+ 125m) (FY) Turkey: Better loss development in motor TPL Poland: Rate increases in motor and improvement of financial insurance products UK: Lower claims expenses Investment result Q4: High level of realised gains in Belgium Other Q4: Restructuring expenses in Belgium 99m FY: Restructuring expenses including investments of 18m/ 14m (gross/net) mainly in Q2; payments for an exclusivity agreement in Q1 FY: Tax rate of 13.5% vs. 86.2% 69

70 Backup: ERGO ERGO International Property-casualty Combined ratio % Gross premiums written Property-casualty 1 m Q Loss ratio Expense ratio Other 383 (366) Greece 192 (140) Turkey 246 (296) TOTAL 2,502m Poland 971 (884) Legal protection 711 (706) Combined ratio % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Poland Legal protection Turkey Greece Other Total 1 Fair values as at ( ). 70

71 Backup: ERGO International strategy embedded in ERGO Strategy Programme (ESP) to achieve ambitious goals Fit Digital Successful! Governance Central steering with dedicated responsibilities Portfolio Foster strong market positions Establish efficient global business models Exploit growth market exposure Best practice exchange Interregional transfer of capabilities, e.g. implementation of adapted imonitor from Poland in Turkey Regional cooperation Integration of back offices, e.g. in Baltics and Poland Accelerated innovation Digital delivery, e.g. via omni-channel communication to customers in India Interlocked business model reinsurance/primary insurance Identify value drivers in an interlocked business model between ERGO entities and Munich Re Commercial business Strengthen commercial business internationally Pure digital player Roll-out of nexible in attractive markets Establishing leaner and more effective structures to ensure swift execution Laying the foundations for transforming the business model Committing to profitable growth Munich Health primary insurance business to be managed by ERGO in

72 Backup: ERGO ERGO International portfolio focuses on three pillars Strong presence in selected developed markets Country GWP, 2016 m Focus segment Market position 5 Specialised global business expertise Existing global businesses 2 GWP, 2016 m JVs Promising exposure in prioritised growth markets GWP 3, 2016 m Segment Expected CAGR, , % Poland Austria Baltics 1, Life Non-life 206 Non-life 2 14% 4 9% 3 5% Legal protection Market presence in 18 countries Travel Market presence in 24 countries 1, China 25 Life India Non-life Vietnam 11 Non-life Thailand 21 Non-life Greece Non-life 8% Launch new global businesses Pure Digital Player Mobility Solutions Subsidiaries Turkey 249 Non-life 10 Leverage existing scale to strengthen organic growth Efficient management and expansion of global businesses Capture opportunities in growth markets Rank Share 1 ATE acquisition effective 1 June 2016; hence, only half year of ATE premium included. 2 Respective German and international business; D.A.S. including Italian JV. 3 ERGO share. 4 Step-up during 2016; premiums based on average share during the year. 5 In focus segment 6 Thereof German LPI business: 401m. 7 Thereof German travel business: 182m. 72

73 Investments 73