SHORT-TERM INSURANCE INDUSTRY FSB FEEDBACK

Transcription

1 SHORT-TERM INSURANCE INDUSTRY FSB FEEDBACK Christiaan Ahlers Damian Smith 27 January 2016 FINANCIAL SERVICES BOARD

2 Agenda Purpose Notes on the data Market overview Projections Assets Liabilities Key performance metrics Reinsurance Solvency and Capital

3 Purpose the of presentation To present a summary of: some of the key features of the experiences of Short-term Insurers the state of the South African Short-term Insurance Industry based on 2014 year-end reporting

4 Notes on the data Primarily 2014 annual quantitative ST returns 90 insurers considered Also 2012 and 2013 annual quantitative ST returns 87 insurers considered Run-off insurers excluded In general, figures have been derived through aggregating across either the industry or the specified subset of the industry, unless otherwise stated

5 Market overview

6 Key 2014 figures GWP (total) R109bn 85% direct, 15% reinsurance GWP (direct insurers) R100bn 50% personal, 31% commercial, 19% corporate 60% renewals, 40% new business Total NWP R73bn retained in RSA 71% Typical, 13% Cell Captive, 12% Niche, 4% Reinsurers, 1% Captive Total claims paid R45bn Total expenses R18bn Total assets R131bn

7 Premiums

8 Top insurers % of total GWP Total assets (R'm) Rank % 18% % 8% % 7% % 6% % 6% Total 43% 45%

9 Premium growth

10 Distribution channels

11 Projections

12 Actual vs expected experience Expected (R'bn) Actual (R'bn) % variance GWP % Claims paid % Expenses % Underwriting result %

13 Assets

14 Investments Most significant component of investment assets Balances and deposits with banks (40.0%) Followed by shares, depository receipts and units (30.9%) 12.3% held outside SA (no significant % of other classes) Securities and loans 10.9% Aggregated amounts of Krugerrands, mortgage bonds and land & buildings are negligible Investment return (nominal) of 6.44% in 2013 and 5.93% in 2014

15 Assets backing liabilities

16 Liquidity Liquidity ratio Current ratio Typical 77% 190% Captive 1041% 1237% Cell Captive 86% 326% Niche 216% 573% Reinsurers 18% 101% Total 92% 243%

17 Liabilities

18 Technical provisions 2014 Provision (R'm) IBNR UPP OCR reserve URP Total TPs Maximum Minimum Mean Median Total % of total 32% 57% 11% 0.1% 100% Alternative for IBNR reserves 21% of insurers Alternative for UPP 18% of insurers

19 Nature of risks Split of 2014 GWP iro risks requiring UPP at year end (direct insurers) 3% 3% 15% 80% Constant Increasing Decreasing Uneven

20 Claims payment development

21 Claims payment development

22 Key performance metrics

23 Claims ratio 2014 claims ratio (excl. outliers) Range Paid - count Incurred - count <0% 1 3 0% % % % 10 7 >100% 8 9

24 Claims ratio by insurer type

25 Claims ratio by business class

26 Claims ratio movement

27 Expense & combined ratios

28 Profitability

29 Profitability

30 Profitability

31 Earnings 2014 total (R'bn) Underwriting profits 3.04 Investment Income 6.32 Dividends as % of net profits 26%

32 Reinsurance

33 Premium retention Range 2014 premium retention ratio Proportional - count All - count <0% 0 1 0% % % % % 26 6 >100% 2 1

34 Reinsurance premiums Reinsurance premiums ceded: 57% to foreign providers 43% to domestic providers 2014 reinsurance premiums % split Proportional 86.3% Non-Prop Treaty 3.8% Non-CAT non-prop treaty 2.6% Facultative 7.3%

35 2014 geographical exposure EML Property over 18% in Zone 1 (Mpumalanga/North West/Limpopo) Motor nearly 25% in Zone 1 Engineering over 25% in Zone 6 (JHB area) Sum insured Property over 18% in Zone 1 Motor nearly 25% in Zone 1 Engineering over 25% in Zone 6 For all 3 classes, Zone 1 has greatest no. risks

36 Largest risks 2014 sum insured of largest risk (R'm) Property Transportation Guarantee Liability Engineering 912 Miscellaneous

37 Solvency and Capital

38 Capital requirements 2014 total (R'bn) CAR 24.5 SCR 24.3 MCR 11.8 CAR given by SCR 2014 CAR given by MCR SCR=MCR Number of insurers Percentage of total 73% 23% 3%

39 BSCR

40 Solvency cover Solvency cover Typical Captive Cell Captive Niche Reinsurer Overall

41 Stress testing None rendered industry financially unsound 67% financially sound after 100% default by largest reinsurer on an MER event stress 77% sound after Gross claims - 30% increase 5 tests improved solvency, including GWP 20% decrease (improved by about 9.6%) With exception of equity shock, ST industry generally more vulnerable to underwriting stresses than market stresses

42 Conclusions Solvent on aggregate basis Most vulnerable to reinsurer default on MER event stress Motor and Property most significant classes Personal lines most significant Typical insurers contribute most to net UW profits Largest insurer largest by a margin Independent brokers most important channel Generally adequate liquidity Investment income over twice net UW result

43 Questions?