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1 with Part 4 Table of Content Risk Definitions The very basic toolbox The intermediate toolbox Step 1 - Risk Management Planning Step 2 - Risk Identification Step 3 - Risk Evaluation Step 4 - Risk Treatment Step 5 - Risk Monitoring The advanced toolbox Step 6 - Risk Quantification Step 6 - Risk Analyses Project triangle Project Requirements Deliverables Project Budget Project Schedule This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Share Alike 3.0 Switzerland License. Pierre Bonnal
2 2 When and which effort? INITIALIZE STUDY DESIGN BUILD COMMISSION FINALIZE Initiators Preliminary Requirements elicitation Master Schedule preparation Preliminary Cost Estimate/Budget preparation Preliminary Risk Register preparation Requirements Register preparation Coordination Schedule preparation Cost Estimate/Budget refinement/update Study Team Project Team Risk Register/Analyses preparation Risk Register updates Risk Definitions Risk Definition The effect of uncertainty on objectives : Can be seen as: > Threats, i.e. with negative impact æ common/regular meaning > Opportunities, i.e. with positive impact æ often forgotten!
3 3 Risk Etymology > > > > From ancient Latin: risicare = reef æ risk-snag From (ancient) Greek: ρίζα = root æ risk-snag From (ancient) Latin: rixa = quarrel, brawl æ risk-action From ancient Greek: ριζικόν = soldier's pay æ risk-action Risiko, Risiken in German Fabio Sabelli (mars 1999) Les risques de l'économie, l'économie des risques. Le point de vue de l'anthropologue. présentation donnée lors du 7 e Congrès de la Société suisse de management de projet à Lausanne, Suisse risk-snag vs. risk-action Risk Heatmap Likelihood Consequences Probability of occurrence = Likelihood Consequence = Impact
4 4 Risk Management Enterprise RM vs. Project RM ERM PRM Strategic risks Operational risks Financial risks Reputational risks Safety risks Environmental risks Technical risks related to the system/product being developed, incl. technical reqts. Programmatic risks related to the project: on schedule, on budget External risks for which the project team has no real control Concept of lifecycle Non completion DEFINITION the study IMPLEMENTATION the project Non compliance Product/systems reqts. vs. final deliverable(s) Non appropriateness Project objectives/needs vs. final deliverable(s)
5 5 Standards and methodologies PMBOK 21500:2012 Systems Engineering Handbook NASA/SP Rev1 INCOSE PRINCE2 HERMES 51 Ch. 11 pp Practice Standard Ch. 8 (4 th theme) pp Rôle pp Tâche pp , , ,.29,.30, pp sebocwiki.org/wiki/risk_management EUROPEAN COORDINATION FOR SPACE STANDARDISATION ECSS-M-ST-80C July 2008 IV.3.5 p. 50 with 3 levels of implementation 3. Advanced 2. Intermediate 1. Simple The preferred project risk management shall be defined in the Project Management Plan
6 6 The very basic toolbox The basic toolbox SIMPLE Simplified Risk Register Bullet list consisting of risk statements: risk, however response examples ò Unsufficient funding, however initial investigations have shown that stakeholders are likely to fund this proposed project ò Unrealistic master schedule, however discussions in conferences and workshops have shown that one year to have an experimental setup in operation is realistic ò Technical problems with instrumentation, however according to a few interviewed experts, the solutions considered are totally feasible ò Enhanced experimental setups by other labs, however our scientific watch shows that this set-up will be very competitive The intermediate toolbox The intermediate toolbox INTERMEDIATE Regular Risk Register Spreadsheet table consisting of risk scenarios: RISK SCENARIO RISK MAGNITUDE RISK RESPONSE
7 7 A 5-step process INTERMEDIATE 1 Agreeing a risk management for the project 2 Identifying risk scenarios 3 Evaluating their magnitude risk management planning risk searching risk sorting 4 Defining responses to these risk scenarios 5 Following up the risks as the project progresses risk monitoring risk treatment or risk planning Step 1 - Risk Management Planning 1 Risk Management Planning INTERMEDIATE Shall be discussed with Project Board 3=^ of the Project Management Plan Risk aversion vs. Risk appetite Consider tailoring
8 8 Step 2 - Risk Identification 2 Risk Identification INTERMEDIATE Project Roadmap Project Management Plan Requirements Register PBS, WBS, RACI Matrix Project Coord. Schedule Project Budget Document Risk Checklists, Vademecums Subject matter experts How to identify all appropriate risk scenarios? Doc. screening Interviews Delphi panels Six-hats, etc. Risk scenario column of the Risk Register INTERMEDIATE 3 project risk categories Technical risks Programmatic risks External risks risks related to the systems/product being developed: appropriateness and compliance risks related to the project itself: completion on schedule and on budget "project strategic risks" macro-economic risks natural hazards regulatory risks "PESTLE-risks"
9 9 Step 3 - Risk Evaluation 3 Risk Evaluation INTERMEDIATE Project Roadmap Project Mngt. Plan Subject matter experts Risk scenarios from the Risk Register Risk Level Matrix FMAC Analysis, etc. Risk Register with magnitude columns populated Risk Level Matrix Probability P Consequences C Very unlikely.1 Negligible.05 Rather unlikely.3 Marginal.1 Possible, plausible.5 Significant.2 Rather likely.7 Major, critical.4 Very likely, quite certain.9 Catastrophic, crisis.8
10 10 Risk Level Matrix Consequences C on budget on schedule Negligible.05 C 0 D 0 Marginal.1 1% < C 5% 1% < D 5% Significant.2 5% < C 10% 5% < D 10% Major, critical.4 10% < C 20% 10% < D 20% Catastrophic, crisis.8 C > 20% D > 20% Risk Level Matrix Consequences Negligible Marginal Significant Major, critical Catastrophic, crisis C on the project performance Minimal or no consequence Small reduction of the performance Significant degradation of the performance Technical goals cannot be achieved Project cannot be completed
11 11 Risk Level Matrix S = P C S < 0.05 low risk 0.05 S < 0.20 medium risk S 0.20 high risk Risk Level Matrix P C
12 12 Step 4 - Risk Treatment Generic Response Types Type of response Modify objectives Avoid Influence probability Modify consequences Transfer consequences Develop continuity plans Keep options open Monitor Accept Remain unaware Optimize all the above Method of handling Reduce or raise performance targets; change tradeoffs between objectives Plan to avoid specified sources of risk/uncertainty Change the probability of potential variations, i.e. prevent Modify the possible consequences of variations, i.e. protect Transfer consequences to another party, e.g. contract provision, insurance Set aside means or make other plans to provide a reactive ability to cope Delay choices and commitments, choosing versatile options Collect and update data about sources of uncertainty Acknowledge and accept uncertainty Ignore uncertainty, take no action to identify, evaluate or handle it Explicitly recognise the value of selecting an optimal combination Stephen Ward, Chris Chapman (2011) How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk: Why Uncertainty Management can be a Much Better Approach than Risk Management (3 ed). Wiley Generic Response Types In practice INTERMEDIATE 4 types of responses to risks Mitigation Avoidance Acceptance Transfer preventive and protective measures bare suppression of the source of risk (precautionary principle) no action except documentation of the risk provision insurance ( Ignorance )
13 13 Risk Heatmap Prevention vs. Protection Probability of occurrence PREVENTIVE MEASURES PROTECTIVE MEASURES Consequence 4 Risk Treatment INTERMEDIATE Project Roadmap Project Mngt. Plan Subject matter experts Lessons learned Risk Register Doc. screening Interviews Delphi panels Six-hats, etc. Risk Register with response columns populated Continuity Plan(s)
14 14 At CERN (in the A&T Sector) cern.ch/quality Step 5 - Risk Monitoring 5 Risk Monitoring INTERMEDIATE Consists of: > > > > Following up the identified risk scenarios Detecting the emergence of residual risks and engaging the appropriate actions or Continuity Plans Following up the implementation of Continuity Plans, appraising their efficiency Scrutinizing the emergence of new risks (i.e. these risks that were not identified during the Study Phase or the early Design Phase of the project), evaluating them, integrating them in the Risk Register, and deciding relevant responses
15 15 The advanced toolbox The advanced PRM toolbox e.g. coordination schedule Monte Carlo simulations ADVANCED Various simulations and analyses Enhanced Risk Register DB-based Risk Register RISK SCENARIO RISK MAGNITUDE BEFORE RISK RESPONSE RISK MAGNITUDE AFTER
16 16 A 7-step process ADVANCED 1 Agreeing a risk management for the project 2 Identifying risk scenarios 3 Evaluating their magnitude (before) 4 Defining responses to these risk scenarios 5 Re-evaluating their magnitude (after) 6 Running relevant simulations and conducting risk analyses 7 Following up the risks as the project progresses Running additional risk simulations and conducting additional risk analysis risk quantification
17 17 Step 6 - Risk Quantification Risk quantification Four es for dealing with probabilities: > Classical > Mathematical > Frequentist > Bayesian Risk quantification Four es for dealing with probabilities: > Classical : The probability P(A) of an event A is the property that determines its frequency of occurrence. E.g.: P( head ) = P( tail ) = 1/2 P( ) = P( ) = 1/6 P( and ) = 1/36
18 18 Risk quantification Four es for dealing with probabilities: > Mathematical : P(A) is a number that obeys the many axioms of the theory built up by A. Kolmogorov in the '30s: 0 P(A) 1 P(A v B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A i ) = 1 Risk quantification Four es for dealing with probabilities: > Frequentist : P(A) is a limit over a set, when the number of elements of this set tends to
19 19 Risk quantification Four es for dealing with probabilities: > Bayesian : P(A) is the degree of belief in the occurrence of an event 6 Risk Quantification ADVANCED Risk Register Subject matter experts Lessons learned Eventually all project docs. Mathematics toolbox (probabilities, combinatorics) Monte Carlo simulations Decision trees, etc. Risk Simulation(s) Risk Analysis(-es)
20 20 Step 6 - Risk Analyses Probabilistic Project Scheduling Monte Carlo-based schedule assessment ADVANCED q Identifing a probability distribution function for each activity duration ESD 0 task A EFD DUR w Using a random number generator for setting activity duration based on their PDF, then computing the activity network several thousand times P 100% 75% e S-curves (cumulated PDFs) can be generated from the computed data for a few relevant milestones D 1 D 2 t Probabilistic Project Scheduling Monte Carlo-based schedule assessment ADVANCED
21 21 Probabilistic Project Scheduling Monte Carlo-based schedule assessment ADVANCED Probabilistic Project Scheduling Monte Carlo-based schedule assessment ADVANCED
22 22 At CERN (in the A&T Sector) Linac4 Project Risk Analysis Conducted in 2009 using the Siemens' SIRA methodology At CERN (in the A&T Sector) Linac4 Project Risk Analysis Overview of cost impact before mitigation
23 23 At CERN (in the A&T Sector) Linac4 Project Risk Analysis Overview of cost impact before mitigation At CERN (in the A&T Sector) Linac4 Project Risk Analysis Overview of cost impact after mitigation
24 24 At CERN (in the A&T Sector) Linac4 Project Risk Analysis Monte Carlo simulation on cost impact At CERN (in the A&T Sector) Linac4 Project Risk Analysis Uncertainties
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