October 11, 2017 Economic Recovery Briefing

Transcription

1 October 11, 2017 Economic Recovery Briefing

2 Overview Groundwork and conceptual framework for today s program Harvey s overall damage costs (preliminary) Immediate impact on the metro area Property losses in affected communities Analysis of recovery efforts with model simulations Implications for the community and the region Lesson from recent events 2

3 Harvey s impact in Perspective Latest expert estimates range from $70 billion to $108 billion Harvey 2017 $70b $108b Discrepancies are mostly due to comparing apples with oranges Sources: NOAA, fivethirtyeight.com, and New York Times. 3

4 Hurricane s Costs Most reported estimates cover only parts of the list Casualties (economic losses due to deaths/injuries) Property damages (insured and uninsured) Infrastructure damages (industry and public facilities) Temporary disruption to local business and economic activity (evacuation, direct impacts) Permanent loss of local businesses and residents Increase in insurance cost (homes and businesses) From the macroeconomic perspective, only lost output (GDP, employment, earnings) counts! 4

5 Disaster Areas TAMUCC UAS began surveillance 2 weeks after landfall Location: Holiday Beach community in Rockport, Texas. 5

6 Property Damages Statistical findings from a random sample of 600 properties in Port Aransas and Rockport About 80% structures damaged to different degrees from winds and storm surge Equivalent of 26% structures destroyed (uninhabitable) in Port Aransas, and 43% across Aransas County Statistically significant characteristics: No meaningful difference between two communities, all else equal Age of structure mattered Tile roofs provided 10% more protection than shingle roofs Standalone structures 15% more vulnerable Waterfront properties 25% more vulnerable Mobile homes sustained 20% more damage Majority of roof damages were associated with N/NW winds 6

7 Community Profiles Baselines for impacted communities reflecting vulnerability and capacity Port Aransas Rockport Aransas County Population (2016 Census) 4,054 10,645 25,721 Housing Units 4,289 6,290 15,614 - Detached Unit 2,341 3,993 10,145 - Attached Unit 1,716 1,470 1,979 - Mobile Home ,288 - RV, boat, van Annual Business Sales ($Mil) $361 $73 $885 Business Establishments Property Damage from Harvey: % Destroyed (equivalence) 26% 45% 43% Total Home RCV ($Mil) $219 $557 $1,320 Sources: 2016 Census, EMSI, and South Texas Economic Development Center. 7

8 Pre-Harvey Economic Profiles by Size Tourism and real estate together made up >50% of Port Aransas economy; retail and hospitality were the largest sectors in Aransas County Accommodation & Food Services $83.7 Arts & Recreation $11.8 Educational Services $0.2 Health Care & Social Assistance $3.2 Administrative & Waste Management $6.0 Professional & Technical Services $3.2 Port Aransas Economy ($Mil Sales) Real Estate $84.5 Farming $0.5 Other Services $16.1 Mining, & Oil/Gas Extraction $12.1 UtilitiesConstruction $0.2 $27.9 Manufacturing $32.6 Wholesale Trade $14.7 Retail Trade $25.8 Transportation & Warehousing $14.9 Information $14.2 Finance & Insurance $9.7 Arts & Recreation $16.9 Health Care & Social Assistance $54.7 Educational Services $1.2 Administrative & Waste Management $50.7 Professional & Technical Services $49.2 Accommodation & Food Services $94.9 Real Estate $66.1 Aransas County Economy ($Mil Sales) Finance & Insurance $48.9 Other Services $37.5 Information $17.3 Farming $36.4 Transportation & Warehousing $20.4 Mining, & Oil/Gas Extraction $117.5 Retail Trade $123.0 Utilities $3.1 Construction $94.3 Manufacturing $18.5 Wholesale Trade $34.8 Source: EMSI,

9 Pre-Harvey Economic Profiles by Number Tourism and real estate together made up 55% of Port Aransas businesses; retail and hospitality made up 31% of Aransas County businesses Port Aransas Business Establishments Other Services 25 Manufacturing 5 Retail Trade 31 Transportation & Warehousing 15 Accommodation & Food Services 102 Aransas County Business Establishments Mining, & Oil/Gas Farming Extraction 3 Utilities Other Services Construction 64 Manufacturing 19 Wholesale Trade 16 Accommodation & Food Services 66 Information 5 Finance & Insurance 4 Arts & Recreation 17 Retail Trade 97 Arts & Recreation 8 Health Care & Social Assistance 4 Administrative & Educational Services Waste Management 1 9 Real Estate 26 Professional & Technical Services 9 Health Care & Social Assistance 57 Educational Services 1 Administrative & Waste Management 27 Professional & Technical Services 48 Real Estate 40 Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance 34 Source: EMSI,

10 Harvey s Immediate Impacts Known knowns of immediate direct economic damage One week of business shut down in metro area $1.2B in gross sales activity, including wage earnings, etc. Loss in capital stock Property damages in other areas are considered relatively modest and scattered No direct impact on land Port Aransas Aransas County Residential $219M $1.3B Nonresidential $12M $240M 10

11 Harvey s Extended Impacts Unknown knowns whose values to be realized beyond direct damage Short- and long-term impacts on local businesses and residents, including Winter Texans Increases in insurance costs for local businesses and households Recovery paths of impacted communities 11

12 Recovery Scenarios Simulations of direct impact and response over time with a regional economic model 3 Phases: Direct Impact (immediate): Loss of economic activity and capital Recovery (transitory): Rebuilding efforts take effect New Normal (equilibrium): Long-run occurs years later Model Assumptions: All industries shut down when the area was hit Immediate loss of residential and nonresidential capital stock (values correspond to observed damages) Separate capacity (resources) constraints for local and regional economies Three alternative speeds in restoring businesses and residential and nonresidential capital losses (100%; 25%; 10% per year) Self-adjustment back to baseline occurs even without government intervention, but in the long run, we are all dead! 12

13 Road to Recovery Slower rebuild efforts are more costly cumulative output loss doubles with each delay 200 Port Aransas Output ($Mil Sales) Immediate Recovery (1 year) Rapid Recovery (4 years) Slow Recovery (10 years) ,000-1,200 Source: South Texas Economic Development Center. 13

14 Need for Speed More rapid recovery is less painful but challenged by available capacity 2,000 Aransas County Output ($Mil Sales) 1, ,000-2,000-3,000-4, Immediate Recovery (1 year) Rapid Recovery (4 years) Slow Recovery (10 years) -5,000-6,000-7,000-8,000 Source: South Texas Economic Development Center. 14

15 LOW CAPACITY HIGH CAPACITY High Storm Impact, Low Capacity Implication: More spillover economic impact on other parts of the Coastal Bend Communities with highest impacts and lowest estimated capacity: Aransas Pass Austwell Fulton Gregory Refugio Rockport Woodsboro HIGHEST IMPACT HIGH IMPACT Source: Community Planning and Capacity Building RSF by Richard Martin, FEMA, October 5,

16 Indirect Impact on Region Rebuild efforts boost regional construction and other industries Full Recovery s Impact on Regional Employment (Job Years) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Farming Mining & Oil/Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate Professional & Technical Services Management Administrative & Waste Management Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services Corpus Christi MSA 16,000 Aransas County Port Aransas Source: South Texas Economic Development Center. 16

17 Takeaways High economic impact from kick-starting businesses and restoring capital infrastructure and properties sooner But capacity matters: Reconstruction activity requires financial capital, labor input and other resources So it is not a community problem, but a regional solution Speedy recovery is vital for minimizing long-term economic losses Resilience is the ability to rebound economically from a disaster and to take advantage of post-disaster market opportunity Jeffrey Sjostrom, 2012 Possible to move above pre-disaster levels, especially with federal/state support (rebuild vs. restoration) No magic number: Reimagining the future of Coastal Bend Tourism for coastal communities New (more expensive) homes for displaced residents Possible population loss in rural communities, particularly in Refugio 17

18 A Tale of Two Cities What to learn from two recent storms and distinctive responses? 120 Population Trends (Base Year = 100) On Impact New Orleans (Katrina 2005) Galveston (Ike 2008) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Year struck by Hurricane 18

19 Thank you! Jim Lee (361) SouthTexasEconomy.com