Outperforming the market in uncertain times

Transcription

1 Accenture Insurance Equity Analyst Survey Outperforming the market in uncertain times What P&C insurers must do to meet analysts expectations of risk control, growth and cost reduction

2 Introduction In 2008 Accenture commissioned a survey * of insurance equity analysts to find out what they wanted from those insurance companies to which they gave their highest ratings. A lot has happened in the industry since then: many new problems have arisen and the old ones, if anything, have got worse. To learn how events have influenced analysts expectations we repeated the survey in 2012 **. Perhaps the most surprising finding of the new survey is that, despite worsening market conditions, analysts have not lowered the growth and profitability targets they expect the top performers to achieve significantly higher growth in 2012 and virtually the same ambitious return on equity (RoE). It s necessary to point out that these expectations apply not to the industry as a whole, but to those carriers which will receive the most glowing valuations. It is also a fact that the most successful companies have comfortably exceeded these levels over the past few years. Nonetheless, all but a few insurers will have their work cut out if they are to satisfy these demanding stakeholders. To do so they will need to focus firstly on risk control analysts believe the three main external challenges facing insurers are the increase in natural disasters, investment volatility and new regulations and reforms. Growth is their next priority, while cost reduction trails in third place. It is clear from analysts responses that insurers don t have the luxury of choosing which of the priorities they should focus on. Three out of three is the minimum requirement. * Accenture Insurance Equity Analyst Survey, 2008 ** Accenture Insurance Equity Analyst Survey,

3 Survey scope & methodology To gain insight into the factors driving the ratings of insurance companies, as well as the strategies that insurance CEOs should adopt to improve valuations of their companies, Accenture commissioned Institutional Investor Market Research Group (IIMRG) to conduct a survey of leading insurance equity analysts around the world. IIMRG conducted telephonic interviews with 68 analysts from North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa and Latin America responsible for researching and rating insurance companies. The interviews, which were carried out in March and April 2012, were guided by a standardized questionnaire designed by in-house industry experts along with external contributions from several equity analysts. 2

4 Key findings what analysts think What performance do you expect in 2012 from the P&C insurers to which you give superior ratings? What should insurers most important priorities be in the year ahead? 6.4% 14.2% Expected annual mean growth Expected mean pre-tax RoE 59% 29% Risk control Sustainable growth What are the biggest external challenges insurers will face in the coming years? What are the critical value drivers for insurers over the next three years? 58% Increase in natural disasters 76% Pricing strategy 55% Volatile investment returns 51% Data analysis 46% New regulations and reforms 3

5 In pursuit of high performance Perhaps the most surprising finding of the Equity Analyst Survey is the bullish expectations which analysts have of the P&C industry s top performers they demand strong growth in annual revenue in 2012, as well as a sixpercent increase in pre-tax return on equity over Buffeted as insurers are by the global economic crisis, and struggling with high catastrophe claims and evermore stringent regulatory requirements, they might have been forgiven for merely maintaining their positions. A survey question about the impact of the tough market conditions provides insight into analysts thinking: no fewer than 49 percent expect the impact to be positive for the industry s front runners. In other words the weaker players, unable to adapt to the more challenging environment, will lose share or be eliminated. The leaders, on the other hand, will be forced by the prevailing circumstances to strengthen their capabilities. This will equip them to grow. Most analysts anticipate that the P&C insurers to which they give high ratings will find their most important growth opportunities, over the next three years, in mergers and acquisitions in emerging markets (63 percent say it is critical). They believe organic growth needs to be pursued primarily in emerging (37 percent) and, to a lesser degree, in mature markets (19 percent). The shifting landscape P&C insurers are operating in a challenging and fast-changing environment. Their businesses are under enormous pressure from a range of external forces. The most demanding of these, the survey found, are a likely increase in natural disasters, volatility in investment returns, and new regulations and reforms. Other forces affecting them are slowing growth in core markets, increasing competition, and the sovereign debt crisis. Changes in consumer demand is another source of uncertainty. Two out of three analysts believe most customers will demand differentiated, valueadded products over the next three years, while a significant minority of customers will shift toward standardized, undifferentiated products. 4

6 Opportunities in a tough market Organic growth will be challenging over the next three years. Analysts believe that to achieve it insurers will need to better understand and predict customer behavior and needs (26 percent say it is critical), develop and implement a multi-channel distribution strategy (24 percent), and introduce new, relevant products (18 percent). Expanding the business in new markets is regarded as an important opportunity for insurers (32 percent); even more so are revisiting their pricing strategies (42 percent) and improving risk management and claims fraud prevention (40 percent). Sharpening the competitive edge Competition in the P&C insurance market, from both traditional and non-traditional players, remains fierce. While there is near unanimity that other insurers will continue to be their most serious competitors, analysts also believe new players such as retailers (53 percent) pose a threat, as do aggregators (37 percent) and banks (34 percent). In order to be competitive, analysts say P&C insurers must focus on improving their operational performance. Process optimization, lean management, an interstate or international operating model that includes platform consolidation and shared services, and outsourcing are among the actions they believe will drive the competitiveness of top-rated P&C insurance companies in the medium term. Furthermore, analysts are of one mind that insurers need to focus on an effective pricing strategy 76 percent rate this as critical. They believe an advanced data analytics capability will also be a crucial value driver. Product innovation will be important since analysts foresee a growth in demand for differentiated, value-added products alongside more standardized products. In both cases innovation will need to meet the requirements of relevance to customer needs, and understandability. Technology and profitability The effective use of technology will be a key point of differentiation for the top-rated players in the P&C insurance sector 35 percent of analysts say it will be critical to profitability over the next three years. Risk management (including underwriting) is not only the area which analysts believe will generate the greatest return on technology investment; it is also the one which has grown the most in importance since the 2008 survey. Other priorities which analysts believe insurers should focus on are claims management and pricing. Fifty-four percent of analysts regard P&C insurers technology performance as good and three percent rate it excellent. However, no fewer than 97 percent believe improvement is needed. 5

7 Figure 1. Sources of Future Growth Q: How important is it for an insurance company to take the following actions in the next 3 years? M&A growth in emerging markets 37% 63% Organic growth in emerging markets 34% 37% Organic growth in mature markets 49% 19% M&A growth in mature markets 29% 16% Important Critical Figure 2. Actions & Capabilities Likely to Support Organic Growth Q: How important will each of the following be to support organic growth over the next 3 years? Understand & predict customers' behavior & needs 58% 26% 84% Develop & implement a multi-channel distribution strategy 55% 24% 79% Develop new products 55% 18% 73% Enter new lines of business Important Critical 49% 16% 65% Figure 3. Pricing & Data Analytics the Primary Value Drivers Q: What are the most important value drivers for insurers over the next three years? Pricing strategy 24% 76% 100% Data analytics 41% 51% 92% Quality of service Product innovation 72% 19% 91% 67% 17% 84% Important Critical 6

8 Figure 4. Drivers of Operational Performance & Competitiveness Q: How important is operational performance to strengthen competitiveness over the next 3 years? Q: Please rate the following drivers according to their positive impact on competitiveness for insurers in the next 3 years? Process optimization 73% 16% 89% Critical 58% Lean management 60% 19% 79% 98% Cross-border/interstate operating model 51% 11% Selling closed books 36% 6% 42% 62% Important 40% Outsourcing & near/offshoring 35% Not really important 2% Important Critical Figure 5. The Most Important Challenges Facing P&C Insurers Q: In your opinion, how important will each of the following external challenges be for insurers in the next 3 years? Environmental issues 58% Volatility in financial investment returns 55% New regulations and reforms 46% Slowing growth in core markets 39% Increasing competition 30% Sovereign debt crisis 21% Changes in customer needs/attitudes 18% Increased customer price sensitivity 15% Decrease in customer loyalty 9% Geopolitical instability 3% 7

9 Figure 6. Perceptions of Insurers Technology Performance Q: How would you rate the importance of technology in the insurance industry over the next 3 years? Q: How would you rate the current level of technology performance of most insurers? 3% Excellent no significant improvement required Critical 47% Good some improvement required 54% 97% Important 50% Poor significant improvement required 43% Not really important 3% Figure 7. Technology Investment & Business Performance Q: What are the 3 most important areas in which insurers should invest in new technologies to improve their business performance? Ranked within Top Three Choices Underwriting risk management 31% 67% Claims management 53% 69% Pricing 42% 51% Underwriting Distribution channels 42% 39% 42% 47% Investment risk management 7% 25% Customer service Policy administration 11% 7% 22% 36% 2012 Survey 2008 Survey 8

10 Comparing the 2008 and 2012 surveys A lot of water under the bridge The 2012 Equity Analyst Survey is a follow-up to a similar study conducted in 2007/8. The fieldwork was completed in December 2007, when the current recession had begun but well before markets crashed and the depth of the crisis became apparent. At that point, analysts predicted that the highest-performing P&C insurers would grow at an average annual rate of 4.7 percent over the ensuing three years. As it turns out they were unduly conservative in the 2012 survey they report that the companies to which they gave the highest ratings grew by 7.5 percent in Although their prediction of 6.4 percent growth for 2012 indicates greater optimism than they felt in 2007, they clearly believe the tough times are not yet over. With regard to profitability, their expectations are more consistent: in the first study they predicted an average 14.4 percent pre-tax return on equity for the top performers, in the second they reported that 13.4 percent had been achieved in 2011, and they forecast a 14.2 percent RoE for Considering the upheaval of the past four years, it is remarkable that the external challenges which analysts believe confront P&C insurers have changed so little. Climate change and an increase in natural disasters maintains its position as the number-one threat, and new regulations and reforms is still at number three. However the volatility of investment returns has, unsurprisingly, shot up from sixth to second position, displacing aging technology. The perceived importance of technology to the industry over the next three years has risen from an already high 88 percent ( important and critical ) in 2008 to 97 percent. At the same time, analysts are somewhat less impressed with the performance of insurers IT: whereas 65 percent rated it as good or excellent in the first survey, this has declined to 57 percent in the second. 9

11 Comparing findings for North America, Europe and Asia Pacific Different priorities in the global village Given the markedly different conditions which confront insurers in North America (NA), Europe and Asia Pacific (APAC), no one would be surprised to learn that equity analysts in the different regions have different expectations of the insurance firms which they rate. Notwithstanding the fact that many analysts rate companies which operate in multiple countries, the data bears this out*. The companies that analysts rated most favorably achieved average growth rates in 2011 of 6 percent in NA, 7.4 percent in Europe and 13.6 percent in APAC. They expect, in 2012, the same of NA insurers (6.1 percent) and somewhat less of European (6.7 percent) and APAC insurers (11.0 percent). Profitability, however, is forecast to rise. The average pre-tax return on equity of the leading NA insurers is expected to increase from 12.1 percent in 2011 to 13.7 percent in 2012, in Europe from 15.5 to 16.4 percent, and in APAC from 13.1 to 13.8 percent. While the challenges facing insurers worldwide are similar, their relative importance varies. Analysts believe investment volatility (71 percent) and new regulations and reform (52 percent) are the biggest threats to NA carriers. For European companies, regulations come first (61 percent) and investment volatility second (57 percent). In APAC, regulations are by far analysts greatest concern: they score 92 percent, compared to 67 percent for slow growth in core markets and 50 percent for investment volatility. NA insurers, if analysts are right, will achieve most of their growth organically in mature markets; their other priorities should be organic growth and M&A in emerging markets. For European companies, organic growth in emerging markets is by far the most promising source of growth. In APAC, M&A and organic growth in emerging markets are viewed as marginally more important than organic growth in mature markets. Analysts are undecided as to the actions that insurers in NA should take to support their quest for organic growth they assign similar priority to developing new products, implementing a multi-channel distribution strategy, and gaining a better understanding of customer needs and behavior. In Europe, however, understanding the customer is significantly more important, while in APAC a multi-channel distribution strategy is clearly the first priority, followed by new, relevant products. The greatest opportunities for NA insurers, analysts believe, are to revisit their pricing strategies and to improve their risk management capabilities. It s no surprise, therefore, that the most important value drivers over the next three years are considered to be pricing strategy and data analytics. For European carriers the biggest opportunities are to reduce costs and improve pricing the value drivers are the same as for their NA counterparts. In APAC, expanding business in new markets is the most important opportunity, followed by implementing a multi-channel distribution strategy and de-risking the investment portfolio. Pricing and service quality are the key value drivers. Across all three regions, analysts believe insurers need to invest in technology to improve their performance. The key areas for NA carriers to consider are risk management and pricing; in Europe it is claims management followed by risk management; and in APAC it is risk management and controlling investment risk. Figure 8. Risk is a Greater Priority for Equity Analysts in North America than Those in Other Regions Q: What should be the most important priority for insurers in the year ahead? North American equity analysts 6% 25% 69% European equity analysts 16% Asia Pacific equity analysts 14% 42% 42% 43% 43% Improve operational efficiency Sustain growth Control risk * Whereas the survey findings contained elsewhere in this report refer to P&C insurers only, in this regional comparison the data for P&C, life and multiline insurers has been aggregated. 10

12 Implications for insurers Equity analysts are clear: notwithstanding difficult market conditions, they expect the leading P&C insurers to achieve strong growth in the next few years. This is probably because the largest firms* have grown at an average 6.5 percent between 2007 and 2011, with the top five** P&C and multiline performers achieving no less than an average 11.2 percent. The mean annual return on equity (RoE) for the largest companies was 12.5 percent since 2008, with the five most profitable P&C and multiline insurers averaging 26.6 percent. What is certain is that analysts expect the companies they evaluate to achieve an RoE in excess of 14 percent. Growth will go some way toward delivering this profitability, as will cost reduction, but the primary focus will be on controlling risk. They list a number of other important considerations, such as pricing strategy, data analytics, service quality and product innovation, but these are all contributors to their three priorities. Achieving these goals will not be easy. The industry is facing severe headwinds. Claims costs are running at an all-time high, with pressure on premiums making it difficult for carriers to recover these losses. Customers insist on enhanced service and more convenient channels. While some want value-added products which are more costly to provide, others are demanding more standardized ones with narrower margins. Direct selling and price comparison sites are squeezing rates even further. Solvency II and Dodd- Frank, together with a steady stream of other new regulations, are forcing insurers to hold larger capital reserves and incur greater sales and other costs. In emerging markets, conditions are more promising. Consumer demand is stronger, due to more buoyant economies as well as the rapid growth of affluent, under-insured middle classes. But to capitalize on this opportunity, global carriers need to equip themselves for success in unfamiliar environments while grappling with complex regulatory regimes and confronting local competitors which, in recent years, have become a lot more sophisticated. Controlling risk It is hardly surprising, in the light of the growing regulatory and economic pressures to which insurers are subjected, that equity analysts place such a high premium on risk control. Even when underwriting is excluded, insurers are more exposed to different types of risk than companies in many other sectors regulations and reforms, natural disasters and investment volatility are the risks that analysts believe pose the greatest danger. * All insurance companies with annual gross written premiums in excess of $50 billion. ** Excluding Chinese insurance companies 11

13 They certainly agree that effective risk management is a more important contributor to profitability than cost reduction. Without the stability which risk control brings, investment in growth and cost reduction is discouraged. The appointment of a dedicated risk manager, supported by actuaries and reporting quarterly to the financial director, may achieve compliance but is insufficient to realize the significant value that risk management can generate. It is worth bearing in mind that many of the new regulations affecting insurers are intended either to improve the stability of the organization or to ensure fair treatment of its customers. A good case can therefore be made for aiming beyond compliance. Risk should be a more important consideration in operational planning than it currently is. It should involve more than an understanding of the mechanics of risk, and should become a preoccupation of everyone in the company. It needs to be managed not quarterly, but daily, weekly and monthly. By aligning risk management with their overall business strategy, and integrating it with their key business processes, insurers will not only ensure compliance but will enhance operational performance, reduce costs and deliver distinctively superior customer service. For many carriers, the reliance on a complex array of diverse, aging platforms is an obvious risk to the business. Where risk cannot be avoided the decision to exclude catastrophe cover may not make business sense better ways of sharing it need to be found. Investment volatility can be addressed by de-risking the assets on the balance sheet, a step which most companies will already have taken. Other risk management priorities are the upgrading of data collection, analytics and reporting capabilities, and then the definition and implementation of an enterprise-wide framework for data management. Integrating risk and finance management processes throughout the organization is a key step, and a challenging one, but is vital to leveraging compliance initiatives to gain a competitive advantage. Achieving growth The demand for P&C insurance in North America and Europe today is weak. In order to grow, therefore, analysts believe insurers need to be in emerging markets. Mergers and acquisitions are their preferred strategy, but organic growth is also vital. Neither will be easy. Many countries, like China, are resisting the efforts of global carriers to enter their markets and compete against their local firms. As a result, this approach increases the risk of regulatory complexity which analysts require insurers to control. What is more, the lack of homogeneity of emerging markets the cultural differences are more significant than in Europe makes it difficult for insurers to achieve economies of scale across borders. While emerging markets may be crucial to the future performance of global groups, they are no panacea. Insurers must continue to do whatever they can to coax growth from their traditional markets. This may entail doing many things differently than they have in the past. There is little doubt that to increase sales at home they will need to be more sophisticated in the ways they manage and engage with their customers. To achieve organic growth, insurers need to focus on four measures of success: lead generation, close ratios, customer retention and customer penetration. A stronger brand is vital not only to new customer acquisition but also loyalty which in turn is essential to retention and customer penetration. The latter is especially important, with insurers needing to direct their creativity to getting more out of their existing customer bases. One option is to use aggregators to acquire customers and then to sell them additional highermargin features; another is to collaborate with unconventional partners to offer innovative products and services. To act decisively in a transforming marketplace, rich data, advanced analytics and predictive modeling are invaluable they help insurers not only understand and segment their markets, but also to develop and continually refine their business and operating models to ensure they are ideally suited to customers needs. The agility to swiftly create and configure new products is a key attribute, especially as the demand grows for more innovative as well as simpler products. In many cases, insurers are prevented by their legacy core platforms from responding effectively. An integrated multi-channel distribution strategy, incorporating innovations like mobility and social media, is also difficult to achieve with older platforms. Yet it is essential to meeting prospects engagement preferences and delivering the kind of service experience many customers require today. It can also significantly enhance the effectiveness of agents. Strategies for supporting organic growth will vary from region to region. Equity analysts believe that in Europe, an improved understanding of customer needs and behavior is their greatest asset. There is little doubt that in all mature markets, insurers will need to be more sophisticated in the ways they manage and engage with their customers. In Asia, where investment in multi-channel distribution lags the more developed markets, this is regarded as the priority to support growth. In exploring the potential of emerging markets, P&C insurers should give careful thought to the suitability of their business model. They need to guard against adding only volume and complexity rather than scale and synergy. A global operating model which allows the insurer to capitalize on its proven assets, processes and capabilities, while adapting to local needs, is essential to geographic expansion. 12

14 Shared services centers are often viewed as an important component of a successful global operating model. However, Western-style shared services centers often under-deliver in emerging markets. Their focus is invariably on cost-reduction, and there is less redundancy to eliminate and scale is more difficult to attain. A much more powerful investment would be to create a growth-oriented shared services center which supports M&A integration and consolidation, and provides distribution support in the form of customer segmentation and predictive modeling; lead conversion analytics; agent recruitment, training, performance tracking and coaching; and perhaps direct selling. Many emerging markets are at the stage of maturity where the greatest potential lies not simply in increasing the number of agents, nor in delivering a sophisticated, customized experience, but rather in effective cross-selling to customers who have only one or two products. Anything that helps agents identify and convert cross-sales prospects will contribute to growth in these areas. Reducing costs This late in the game, after many years of trimming the fat, there is little to be gained from isolated, piecemeal efforts to cut costs. These are more likely to impair operational performance, and marketing and sales effectiveness, than deliver meaningful savings. What is needed is a thorough review of the cost structure. Most of the potential for permanently changing the cost structure will be found in old, inefficient and inflexible operating models. Business and product silos from an operations and technology perspective have created an unwanted level of complexity. Portfolio optimization focusing on products and markets among others, as well as new sourcing strategies and organizational alignment, are the main opportunity levers. The introduction of innovative, lower cost distribution channels, and their integration with traditional systems, can also drive efficiencies. However, investment decisions need to take cognizance of the fact that traditional channels are still the most productive, and in the short term may yield a greater return a balanced approach may be appropriate. Many P&C insurers have realized that an improvement in claims management can have a significant effect on their expenses. Claims transformation, which includes the expanded use of data and predictive analytics, can improve claims outcomes and settlement accuracy, enhance the precision of loss reserving, and reduce the unit cost per claim while improving customer service. The same can be said for claims procurement management arrangements with suppliers, which can reduce settlement costs and raise efficiency. Finally, with 10 percent of all P&C claims in the US estimated to be fraudulent*, and fewer than 20 percent of these being detected or denied, even a modest increase in the ability to detect and prevent fraud would have substantial and immediate benefits. Turning to distribution, while many carriers have broadened their channel capabilities, fewer have addressed the cost to market of new products. In the current market, the ability to price efficiently can have a great and enduring impact on costs and profitable growth. Another powerful lever of cost reduction, as discussed above, is scale. Two large companies may have the same gross written premium, but the one whose operations are concentrated on a few markets or in a few geographies is likely to be significantly more profitable than the other which is more widespread. The former affords the opportunity of all sorts of efficiencies, as well as a greater return on investments in marketing and distribution due to a higher concentration of resources. If their expectations of profitable growth are to be met, insurers will have to significantly improve their use of technology. There is no silver bullet for solving this; it is likely that multiple levers will have to be pulled to simplify the existing legacy administration environment. Platform modernization will address the current high cost of manufacturing while also positioning the organization for future growth by enabling strategic capabilities in areas such as product configuration, analytics, digital marketing, mobility and social media. * National Insurance Crime Bureau, Insurance Fraud: Understanding the Basics,

15 Meeting analysts expectations will not be easy Equity analysts have set the bar high. To achieve a favorable rating it will not be enough to tread water. Nor will sporadic interventions be sufficient the market is changing too rapidly, and too fundamentally, for a fragmented approach to deliver the required results. In order to rank among the high performers of the future, P&C insurers need to re-evaluate their business models. Some will have the capability, the balance sheet and the appetite to operate as a full-function carrier across multiple lines of business and multiple geographies. Others will realize they need to make some changes to compete at this high level. Certainly, without an effective presence in one or more highgrowth emerging markets, insurers are unlikely to receive a favorable rating. Other carriers may decide that specialization achieving scale within a more confined operational, product or geographic footprint is a surer strategy for success. Whichever approach they choose, the required mindset, operating model, infrastructure and capabilities will differ vastly, and may require farreaching reorganization. Change on such a scale is daunting. It need not be undertaken all at once, but it does need to be planned with a clear end-state in mind. Only in this way can every enhancement be a consistent step toward the ultimate goal. While insurers may choose to target discrete market segments or geographies, or to specialize in specific aspects of the business, they don t have the luxury of selecting which of the equity analysts priorities they will concentrate on. Many carriers are currently achieving effective risk management, growth or cost reduction. To achieve favorable evaluations in the future, however, nothing less than three out of three will satisfy this influential group. To find out more about the Accenture Insurance Equity Analyst Survey, and how we can help you achieve a superior rating, visit our website at www. accenture.com/insurance. 14

16 About Accenture Accenture is a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing company, with more than 249,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries. Combining unparalleled experience, comprehensive capabilities across all industries and business functions, and extensive research on the world s most successful companies, Accenture collaborates with clients to help them become high-performance businesses and governments. The company generated net revenues of US$25.5 billion for the fiscal year ended Aug. 31, Its home page is About Accenture Research Accenture Research is Accenture s global organization devoted to Economic and Strategic Studies. The staff consists of 150 experts in economics, sociology and survey research from Accenture s principal offices in North America, Europe and Asia/Pacific. Copyright 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. Accenture, its logo, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture /