Management s Discussion & Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Transcription

1 Management s Discussion & Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations Quarter Ended

2 Management s Discussion & Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations The following discussion highlights significant factors influencing results of operations and changes in financial position of Liberty Mutual Holding Company Inc., the parent corporation of the Liberty Mutual Insurance group of entities (the "Company" or "LMHC"), for the three months ended 2017 and This Management s Discussion & Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ( MD&A ) should be read in conjunction with the Company s December 31, 2016 Audited Consolidated Financial Statements and 2017 Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements located on the Company s Investor Relations website at The Company s discussions related to net income are presented in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ( GAAP ) on an after-tax basis. All other discussions are presented on a pre-tax GAAP basis, unless otherwise noted. Further, the Company notes that it may make material information regarding the Company available to the public, from time to time, via the Company s Investor Relations website at (or any successor site). Index Page Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements... 3 Executive Summary... 4 Consolidated Results of Operations... 6 Review of Financial Results by Business Unit Global Consumer Markets U.S. Consumer Markets Global Consumer Markets East West Commercial Insurance Global Specialty Corporate and Other Investments Liquidity and Capital Resources Reinsurance Recoverables Critical Accounting Estimates About the Company

3 Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements This report contains forward looking statements that are intended to enhance the reader s ability to assess the Company s future financial and business performance. Forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements that represent the Company s beliefs concerning future operations, strategies, financial results or other developments, and contain words and phrases such as may, expects, should, believes, anticipates, estimates, intends or similar expressions. Because these forward looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions that are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company s control or are subject to change, actual results could be materially different. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to the following: the occurrence of catastrophic events (including terrorist acts, hurricanes, hail, tornados, tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, snowfall and winter conditions); inadequacy of loss reserves; adverse developments involving asbestos, environmental or toxic tort claims and litigation; adverse developments in the cost, availability or ability to collect reinsurance; disruptions to the Company s relationships with its independent agents and brokers; financial disruption or a prolonged economic downturn; the performance of the Company s investment portfolios; a rise in interest rates; risks inherent in the Company s alternative investments in private limited partnerships ( LP ), limited liability companies ( LLC ), commercial mortgages and natural resource working interests; difficulty in valuing certain of the Company s investments; subjectivity in the determination of the amount of impairments taken on the Company s investments; unfavorable outcomes from litigation and other legal proceedings, including the effects of emerging claim and coverage issues and investigations by state and federal authorities; the Company s exposure to credit risk in certain of its business operations; the Company s inability to obtain price increases or maintain market share due to competition or otherwise; inadequacy of the Company s pricing models; changes to insurance laws and regulations; changes in the amount of statutory capital that the Company must hold to maintain its financial strength and credit ratings; regulatory restrictions on the Company s ability to change its methods of marketing and underwriting in certain areas; assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements; a downgrade in the Company s claims-paying and financial strength ratings; the ability of the Company s subsidiaries to pay dividends to the Company; inflation, including inflation in medical costs and automobile and home repair costs; the cyclicality of the property and casualty insurance industry; political, legal, operational and other risks faced by the Company s international business; potentially high severity losses involving the Company s surety products; loss or significant restriction on the Company s ability to use credit scoring in the pricing and underwriting of personal lines policies; inadequacy of the Company s controls to ensure compliance with legal and regulatory standards; changes in federal or state tax laws; risks arising out of the Company s securities lending program; the Company s utilization of information technology systems and its implementation of technology innovations; difficulties with technology or data security; insufficiency of the Company s business continuity plan in the event of a disaster; the Company's ability to successfully integrate operations, personnel and technology from its acquisitions; insufficiency of the Company s enterprise risk management models and modeling techniques; and changing climate conditions. The Company s forward looking statements speak only as of the date of this report or as of the date they are made and should be regarded solely as the Company s current plans, estimates and beliefs. For a detailed discussion of these and other cautionary statements, visit the Company s Investor Relations website at The Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward looking statements. 3

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The following highlights do not address all of the matters covered in the other sections of Management s Discussion & Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations or contain all of the information that may be important to the investing public. This summary should be read in conjunction with the other sections of Management s Discussion & Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and the Company s 2017 Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements. Consolidated Results of Operations Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Net written premium ( NWP ) $9,234 $8, % Pre-tax operating income ( PTOI ) before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income (72.6) Net operating income before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income (65.3) Partnerships, LLC and other equity method income NM Net realized gains (losses) 169 (39) NM Ironshore Inc. ( Ironshore ) acquisition costs (10) - NM Loss on extinguishment of debt (1) (8) (87.5) Consolidated net income (12.9) Net income attributable to LMHC (10.7) Cash flow (used in) provided by operations ($66) $299 NM NM = Not Meaningful Three Months Ended Change (Points) Combined ratio before catastrophes 1 and net incurred losses attributable to prior years % 92.3% 1.6 Combined ratio % 96.3% Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. 2 Net incurred losses attributable to prior years is defined as incurred losses attributable to prior years (including prior year losses related to catastrophes and prior year catastrophe reinstatement premium) including earned premium attributable to prior years. 3 The combined ratio, expressed as a percentage, is a measure of underwriting profitability. This measure should only be used in conjunction with, and not in lieu of, underwriting income and may not be comparable to other performance measures used by the Company s competitors. The combined ratio is computed as the sum of the following property and casualty ratios: the ratio of claims and claim adjustment expense less managed care income to earned premium; the ratio of insurance operating costs plus amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs less third-party administration income and fee income (primarily related to the Company s involuntary market servicing carrier operations) and installment charges to earned premium; and the ratio of policyholder dividends to earned premium. Provisions for uncollectible premium and reinsurance are not included in the combined ratio unless related to asbestos and environmental and certain other run off. Restructuring and Ironshore acquisition costs are not included in the combined ratio. 4

5 As of As of December 31, $ in Millions Change Short-term debt $- $- - Long-term debt 8,146 7, Total debt $8,146 $7, % Unassigned equity $22,021 $21, % Accumulated other comprehensive loss (1,030) (1,304) (21.0) Non-controlling interest Total equity $21,014 $20, % Subsequent Events On May 1, 2017, the Company acquired Ironshore for approximately $2.9 billion subject to standard post-closing adjustments. Transaction related costs primarily consist of non-recurring banking, legal, tax, and accounting expenses and are reflected on the Consolidated Statements of Income separately. Concurrent with the acquisition, the Company will combine its existing Liberty International Underwriters U.S. business and Ironshore s U.S. specialty lines business under the Ironshore brand. On May 2, 2017, Ironshore exercised its option to redeem in full its outstanding $250 million Ironshore Holdings (US) Inc. 8.5% Senior Notes maturing in 2020 in accordance with the contractual make whole provisions. On April 17, 2017, the Company completed the acquisition of TRU Services, LLC, specializing in providing medical stop loss products to mid and large-size medical plan sponsors. The transaction is not material to the Company. Management has assessed material subsequent events through May 4, 2017, the date the financial statements were available to be issued. 5

6 CONSOLIDATED RESULTS OF OPERATIONS The Company has identified consolidated PTOI, PTOI before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income, and net operating income before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income as non-gaap financial measures. PTOI is defined by the Company as pre-tax income excluding net realized gains, loss on extinguishment of debt, extraordinary items, discontinued operations, integration and other acquisition and restructuring related costs and cumulative effects of changes in accounting principles. PTOI before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income is defined as PTOI excluding LP and LLC results recognized on the equity method and revenue and expenses from the production and sale of oil and gas. Net operating income is defined as net income excluding the after-tax impact of net realized gains, Ironshore acquisition costs and loss on extinguishment of debt. PTOI before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income, PTOI, and net operating income before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income are considered by the Company to be appropriate indicators of underwriting and operating results and are consistent with the way the Company internally evaluates performance. Net realized gains and partnerships, LLC and other equity method results are significantly impacted by both discretionary and economic factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating results, and the timing and amount of integration and other acquisition and restructuring related costs and the extinguishment of debt are not connected to the management of the insurance and underwriting aspects of the Company s business. Income taxes are significantly impacted by permanent differences and timing differences, whose related deferred tax assets/liabilities could be impacted by tax reform. References to NWP represent the amount of premium recorded for policies issued during a fiscal period including audits, retrospectively rated premium related to loss sensitive policies, and assumed premium, less ceded premium. Assumed and ceded reinsurance premiums include premium adjustments for reinstatement of coverage when a loss has used some portion of the reinsurance provided, generally under catastrophe treaties ( reinstatement premium ), and changes in estimated premium. In addition, the majority of workers compensation premium is adjusted to the booked as billed method through the Corporate and Other segment. The Company believes that NWP is a performance measure useful to investors as it generally reflects current trends in the Company s sale of its insurance products. The Company s discussions related to net income are presented on an after-tax GAAP basis. All other discussions are presented on a pre-tax GAAP basis, unless otherwise noted. Property and casualty operations investment income is allocated to the business units based on planned ordinary investment income returns by investment category. Effective in 2017, the amount allocated to the business units was updated to better reflect the current yield environment. The difference between allocated net investment income and actual net investment income is included in Corporate and Other. The prior period has been adjusted to reflect this change. On March 27, 2017, Liberty Mutual Finance Europe DAC issued 500 million par value of Senior Notes due 2024 (the 2024 Notes ). Interest is payable annually at a fixed rate of 1.75%. The 2024 Notes mature on March 27, On February 27, 2017, the United Kingdom s Ministry of Justice announced a reduction in the discount rate utilized for certain lump sum personal injury compensation claims from 2.5% to (.75%) effective March 20, The Company s reserve estimation process provided for the impact of a range of events such as this. On January 5, 2017, the Company completed the sale of its 10 St. James and 75 Arlington properties. The sale resulted in a gain of $297 million, of which $188 million was deferred over the terms of the lease and $109 million was recognized in the Consolidated Statements of Income. The Company has entered into a sale lease back agreement which extends over 15 years resulting in a net lease obligation of $258 million. On December 5, 2016, the Company entered into an agreement to purchase Ironshore from Fosun International Ltd. On May 1, 2017, the Company acquired Ironshore for approximately $2.9 billion subject to standard post-closing adjustments. Transaction related costs primarily consist of non-recurring banking, legal, tax, and accounting expenses and are reflected on the Consolidated Statements of Income separately. On August 16, 2016, the Company entered into an agreement to sell a 51% interest of its Chinese operations to Sanpower Group. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval. A gain is expected on the sale. 6

7 Effective as of September 30, 2015, the Company deconsolidated the Venezuelan subsidiaries and made the Venezuelan operations available for sale. The evolving conditions in Venezuela, including the increasingly restrictive foreign exchange control regulations and other factors, significantly impacted our control over the Venezuelan operations. As a result of these factors, which we believe to be other-than-temporary, we concluded that effective September 30, 2015, we do not meet the accounting criteria for control over the Venezuelan operations, and deconsolidated these operations in the accompanying financial statements. As a result of deconsolidating, the Company recognized an impairment charge of approximately $690 million which included the write down of the investment in the previously consolidated Venezuelan operations to fair value and the write-off of related intercompany balances. The Company s Venezuelan operations and the related impairment charge are classified as discontinued operations in the Consolidated Financial Statements. Subsequent to deconsolidation, the Company accounts for its ongoing investment in the Venezuela operation on a cost basis. The Company s three SBUs are as follows: Global Consumer Markets comprises two market segments: U.S. Consumer Markets and Global Consumer Markets East West. These market segments comprise three operating regions: U.S. Consumer Markets, Global Consumer Markets East and Global Consumer Markets West. o o U.S. Consumer Markets includes all domestic personal lines business. Products are distributed through multiple distribution channels, including employee sales representatives, telesales counselors, independent agents, third-party producers and the Internet. Global Consumer Markets East West sells property and casualty, health and life insurance products and services to individuals and businesses in two operating regions: West, including Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and West Other; and East, including Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, China, Russia, Turkey, and East Other. Commercial Insurance offers a wide array of property and casualty, benefits, and life insurance coverages through independent agents, brokers, benefit consultants, captive agents, and bank partners throughout the United States. Commercial Insurance is organized into the following four market segments: Business Insurance, National Insurance, Liberty Mutual Benefits, and Other Commercial Insurance. Global Specialty comprises a wide array of products and services offered through three market segments: Liberty Specialty Markets ( LSM ), Liberty International Underwriters ( LIU ), and Liberty Mutual Surety ( LM Surety ). On May 1, 2017, the Company acquired Ironshore, which will be reported as part of Global Specialty. 7

8 Overview Consolidated Consolidated NWP by significant line of business was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Private passenger automobile $3,316 $3, % Homeowners 1,373 1, Specialty insurance (4.3) Commercial multiple-peril Workers compensation Voluntary (6.8) Workers compensation Involuntary Commercial automobile Global specialty reinsurance (3.6) Employer disability, life and A&H General liability Surety (1.9) Individual life and annuity Commercial property (18.0) Global specialty inland marine Corporate reinsurance Other Total NWP $9,234 $8, % 1 Specialty insurance is reported within Global Specialty and includes marine, energy, construction, aviation, property, casualty, excess casualty, directors and officers, errors and omissions, environmental impairment liability, railroad, trade credit, excess and surplus property, crisis management, contingent lines and other. 2 NWP associated with internal reinsurance, net of corporate external placements. 3 Primarily includes NWP from allied lines and domestic inland marine. NWP for the three months ended 2017 was $9.234 billion, an increase of $462 million over the same period in Significant changes by major line of business for the three months ended 2017 include: Private passenger automobile NWP increased $256 million. The increase reflects rate, model year increases, and growth in policies in-force in U.S. Consumer Markets, and organic growth in Global Consumer Markets East West. The quarter was further impacted by favorable foreign exchange due to the U.S. dollar weakening against the Brazilian real. Homeowners NWP increased $35 million. The increase reflects rate and coverage increases, as well as growth in homeowners policies-in-force in U.S. Consumer Markets. Specialty insurance decreased $24 million. The decrease reflects re-underwriting and pricing actions, as well as the strengthening of the U.S. dollar versus the British pound and euro. Employer disability, life and A&H NWP increased $74 million. The increase reflects strong new business sales. Individual life and annuity NWP increased $45 million. The increase reflects higher life-contingent structured settlement sales. Corporate reinsurance NWP increased $45 million. The increase reflects new internal programs and changes in terms and coverage to both internal and external programs. More detailed explanations of the changes in NWP by line of business are included in the related discussion of financial results for each segment. 8

9 Consolidated NWP by SBU was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Global Consumer Markets $5,215 $4, % U.S. Consumer Markets 4,345 4, Global Consumer Markets East West Commercial Insurance 2,480 2, Global Specialty 1,343 1,380 (2.7) Corporate and Other (9.3) Total NWP $9,234 $8, % Foreign exchange effect on NWP change 0.2 NWP change excluding foreign exchange 1 5.1% 1 Determined by assuming constant foreign exchange rates between periods. Major drivers of NWP growth were as follows: Three Months Ended Points Attribution $ in Millions $ Change Total NWP $9,234 $8,772 $ Components of growth: Domestic personal automobile 2,782 2, Domestic homeowners 1,330 1, Global Consumer Markets East West Local Business (ex foreign exchange) Specialty insurance (ex foreign exchange) (13) (0.1) Domestic workers compensation (32) (0.4) Global specialty reinsurance (ex foreign exchange) (8) (0.1) Domestic employer disability, life and A&H Corporate reinsurance (ex foreign exchange) 1, Surety (4) - Global specialty inland marine (ex foreign exchange) Domestic individual life and annuity Foreign exchange Other lines 1,644 1, Total NWP $9,234 $8,772 $ Determined by assuming constant foreign exchange rates between periods. 2 NWP associated with internal reinsurance, net of corporate external placements. 9

10 Consolidated NWP by geographic distribution channels was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change U.S. $7,638 $7, % International 1 1,596 1, Global Consumer Markets East West Global Specialty (11.6) Total NWP $9,234 $8, % 1 Excludes domestically written business in Global Specialty s LIU market segment. For a more complete description of the Company s business operations, products and distribution channels, and other material information, please visit the Company s Investor Relations web site at 10

11 Results of Operations Consolidated Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Net operating income before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income $144 $415 (65.3%) Partnerships, LLC and other equity method income, net of tax NM Net realized gains (losses), net of tax 110 (25) NM Ironshore acquisition costs, net of tax (7) - NM Loss on extinguishment of debt, net of tax (1) (5) (80.0) Less: Net income attributable to non-controlling interest - 10 (100.0) Net income attributable to LMHC $351 $393 (10.7%) NM = Not Meaningful Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Revenues $10,097 $9, % PTOI before catastrophes, net incurred losses attributable to prior years, and partnerships, LLC and other equity method income $801 $941 (14.9%) Catastrophes 1 (639) (381) 67.7 Net incurred losses attributable to prior years: - Asbestos and environmental 2 (4) - NM - All other 2, (81.5) PTOI before partnerships, LLC and other equity method income (72.6) Partnerships, LLC and other equity method income NM PTOI (48.2) Net realized gains (losses) 169 (39) NM Ironshore acquisition costs (10) - NM Loss on extinguishment of debt (1) (8) (87.5) Pre-tax income (17.3) Income tax expense (26.7) Consolidated net income (12.9) Less: Net income attributable to non-controlling interest - 10 (100.0) Net income attributable to LMHC $351 $393 (10.7%) Cash flow provided by operations before pension contributions $335 $400 (16.3%) Pension contributions (401) (101) NM Cash flow (used in) provided by operations ($66) $299 NM 1 Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. 2 Asbestos and environmental is gross of the related adverse development cover (the NICO Reinsurance Transaction ), and All other includes all cessions related to the NICO Reinsurance Transaction, which is described further in Reinsurance Recoverables. 3 Net of earned premium and reinstatement premium attributable to prior years of $3 million and $1 million for the three months ended 2017 and 2016, respectively. 4 Partnerships, LLC and other equity method income includes LP, LLC and other equity method income within net investment income in the accompanying Consolidated Statements of Income and revenue and expenses from the production and sale of oil and gas. NM = Not Meaningful 11

12 Three Months Ended Partnerships, LLC and Other Equity Method Income $ in Millions Change LP, LLC and other equity method income 1 $169 $ % Direct investment in natural resources revenues Direct investment in natural resources expenses 3 (56) (88) (36.4) Partnerships, LLC and other equity method income $162 $23 NM 1 Included within net investment income in the accompanying Consolidated Statements of Income. 2 Included within fee & other revenues in the accompanying Consolidated Statements of Income. 3 Included within operating costs and expenses in the accompanying Consolidated Statements of Income. NM = Not Meaningful Three Months Ended Net Investment Income $ in Millions Taxable interest income $534 $527 Tax-exempt interest income Dividends LP, LLC and other equity method income Commercial mortgage loans Other investment income 3 6 Gross investment income Investment expenses 1 (50) (41) Net investment income $766 $687 1 Fees paid to external managers are included within the components of gross investment income. Net Realized Gains (Losses) $ in Millions Sales & Dispositions Impairments Change in Derivatives Value Total Three Months Ended 2017: Fixed maturities $46 ($13) $- $33 Equities 56 (1) - 55 Other 112 (31) - 81 Total $214 ($45) $- $169 Three Months Ended 2016: Fixed maturities ($12) ($7) $- ($19) Equities 14 (10) - 4 Other - - (24) (24) Total $2 ($17) ($24) ($39) PTOI before partnerships, LLC, and other equity method income for the three months ended 2017 was $168 million, a decrease of $446 million from the same period in The decrease reflects higher catastrophe losses and higher current accident year losses, including the impact of unfavorable domestic auto liability loss trends reflected in U.S. Consumer Markets and Commercial Insurance, higher non-catastrophe property losses in Commercial Insurance, and large loss activity in Global Specialty and Corporate. The decrease also reflects lower net investment income excluding partnerships, LLC, and other equity method investments and favorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Global Specialty and Corporate in 2016 that did not recur. These decreases were partially offset by the profit margin on growth in earned premium. Partnerships, LLC, and other equity method income including operating income from direct working interests for the three months ended 2017 was $162 million, an increase of $139 million over the same period in The increase reflects improved energy operations PTOI (reflects partnerships and direct investment in oil and gas wells) and more favorable traditional private equity valuations in

13 Revenues for the three months ended 2017 were $ billion, an increase of $735 million over the same period in The major components of revenues are net premium earned, net investment income, net realized gains (losses), and fee and other revenues. Net premium earned for the three months ended 2017 was $8.895 billion, an increase of $431 million over the same period in The increase primarily reflects the premium earned associated with the changes in NWP previously discussed and growth during the last nine months of Net investment income for the three months ended 2017 was $766 million, an increase of $79 million over the same period in The increase was primarily a result of more favorable valuations in both the energy sector and traditional private equity investments in 2017 as compared to the same period in Net realized gains (losses) for the three months ended 2017 were $169 million versus ($39) million for the same period in The increase in net realized gains primarily relates to a $109 million gain on the sale of companyowned real estate. In addition, 2017 reflects higher fixed maturity and equity gains realized from sales, partially offset by an impairment of a direct oil and gas well investment. The prior period was impacted by derivative losses that did not recur in Fee and other revenues for the three months ended 2017 were $267 million, an increase of $17 million over the same period in The change reflects higher bill fees in U.S. Consumer Markets. Claims, benefits and expenses for the three months ended 2017 were $9.598 billion, an increase of $834 million over the same period in The increase reflects higher catastrophe losses and current accident year losses, including the impact of unfavorable domestic auto liability loss trends reflected in U.S. Consumer Markets and Commercial Insurance, higher non-catastrophe property losses in Commercial Insurance, large loss activity in Global Specialty and Corporate and business growth, and lower favorable incurred losses attributable to prior years. Loss on extinguishment of debt for the three months ended 2017 was $1 million, a decrease of $7 million from the same period in The Company repurchased $2 million and $16 million of the 10.75% Junior Subordinated notes due 2088 during the three months ended 2017 and 2016, respectively. Income tax expense on operations for the three months ended 2017 was $137 million, a decrease of $50 million from the same period in The Company s effective tax rate on operations for the three months ended 2017 was 28% compared to 32% for the same period in The decrease in the effective tax rate on operations was primarily due to revisions to prior year estimates. The Company s effective tax rate on operations differs from the U.S. Federal statutory rate of 35% principally due to tax-exempt investment income. Net income attributable to LMHC for the three months ended 2017 was $351 million, a decrease of $42 million from the same period in Cash flow (used in) provided by operations for the three months ended 2017 was ($66) million versus $299 million for the same period in The change reflects higher pension funding in Corporate and higher auto line of business loss payments in U.S. Consumer Markets and Commercial Insurance, partially offset by higher premium collections due to growth. 13

14 Three Months Ended Change (Points) CONSOLIDATED Combined ratio before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years Claims and claim adjustment expense ratio 64.0% 61.7% 2.3 Underwriting expense ratio (0.7) Subtotal Catastrophes Net incurred losses attributable to prior years: - Asbestos and environmental All other 2 (0.1) (0.8) 0.7 Total combined ratio % 96.3% Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. 2 Net of earned premium and reinstatement premium attributable to prior years. 3 The combined ratio, expressed as a percentage, is a measure of underwriting profitability. This measure should only be used in conjunction with, and not in lieu of, underwriting income and may not be comparable to other performance measures used by the Company s competitors. The combined ratio is computed as the sum of the following property and casualty ratios: the ratio of claims and claim adjustment expense less managed care income to earned premium; the ratio of insurance operating costs plus amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs less third-party administration income and fee income (primarily related to the Company s involuntary market servicing carrier operations) and installment charges to earned premium; and the ratio of policyholder dividends to earned premium. Provisions for uncollectible premium and reinsurance are not included in the combined ratio unless related to asbestos and environmental and certain other run off. Restructuring and Ironshore acquisition costs are not included in the combined ratio. The consolidated combined ratio before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years for the three months ended 2017 was 93.9%, an increase of 1.6 points over the same period in The claims and claim adjustment expense ratio reflects higher severity in the auto line of business in U.S. Consumer Markets and Commercial Insurance, higher non-catastrophe property losses in Commercial Insurance and large loss activity in Global Specialty and Corporate. The decrease in the underwriting expense ratio reflects lower employee related costs in U.S. Consumer Markets, lower employee benefits expense in Commercial Insurance, and higher earned premium. Including the impact of catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years, the total combined ratio for the three months ended 2017 was 101.5%, an increase of 5.2 points over the same period in The increase reflects higher catastrophe losses, favorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Global Specialty and Corporate in 2016 that did not recur and the increases in the combined ratio previously discussed. 14

15 Overview Global Consumer Markets GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKETS Global Consumer Markets combines the Company s local expertise in growth markets outside the U.S. with strong and scalable U.S. personal lines capabilities in order to take advantage of opportunities to grow its business globally. U.S. Consumer Markets and Global Consumer Markets East West are market segments of Global Consumer Markets. During the quarter ended June 30, 2016, Global Consumer Markets was reorganized into three operating regions: U.S. Consumer Markets, Global Consumer Markets East and Global Consumer Markets West. The prior period has been restated to reflect the new structure. Global Consumer Markets NWP by market segment was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change U.S. Consumer Markets $4,345 $4, % Global Consumer Markets East West Total NWP $5,215 $4, % Results of Operations Global Consumer Markets Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Revenues $5,466 $5, % PTOI before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years $538 $547 (1.6%) Catastrophes 1 (542) (330) 64.2 Net incurred losses attributable to prior years PTOI $13 $226 (94.2%) 1 Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. 15

16 Three Months Ended Change GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKETS (Points) Combined ratio before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years Claims and claim adjustment expense ratio 65.1% 63.6% 1.5 Underwriting expense ratio (0.9) Subtotal Catastrophes Net incurred losses attributable to prior years (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) Total combined ratio 102.3% 98.0% Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. Management s discussion and analysis for Global Consumer Markets will be discussed at the market segment level in the following U.S. Consumer Markets and Global Consumer Markets East West sections, respectively. 16

17 U.S. CONSUMER MARKETS Overview U.S. Consumer Markets U.S. Consumer Markets sells automobile, homeowners and other types of property and casualty insurance coverage to individuals in the United States. U.S. Consumer Markets products are distributed through approximately 2,000 licensed employee sales representatives, approximately 700 licensed telesales counselors, independent agents, thirdparty producers and the Internet. U.S. Consumer Markets has more than 22,000 sponsored affinity groups (including employers, professional and alumni associations, credit unions, and other partnerships) which are a significant source of new business. U.S. Consumer Markets NWP by line of business was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Private passenger automobile $2,782 $2, % Homeowners and other 1,563 1, Total NWP $4,345 $4, % NWP for the three months ended 2017 was $4.345 billion, an increase of $221 million over the same period in Private passenger automobile NWP for the three months ended 2017 was $2.782 billion, an increase of $178 million over the same period in The growth reflects a 5.1% increase in weighted average written premiums (adjusted for changes in six and twelve month policy term mix) resulting from rate and model year increases, and growth in policies in-force of 1.2% for the twelve months ended The increase in weighted average written premium reflects additional rate required to keep pace with industry loss cost trends. Homeowners and other NWP for the three months ended 2017 was $1.563 billion, an increase of $43 million over the same period in The growth reflects a 0.7% increase in homeowners average written premiums (resulting from rate and coverage changes) and growth in homeowners policies in-force of 1.6% for the twelve months ended

18 Results of Operations U.S. Consumer Markets Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Revenues $4,481 $4, % PTOI before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years $551 $ % Catastrophes 1 (542) (330) 64.2 Net incurred losses attributable to prior years 5 (5) NM PTOI $14 $213 (93.4%) 1 Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. NM = Not Meaningful PTOI for the three months ended 2017 was $14 million, a decrease of $199 million from the same period in The decrease was driven by worsening trends in the auto line of business and higher current accident year catastrophe losses due primarily to property losses related to hail storms in Texas, partially offset by the profit margin on growth in earned premium. Revenues for the three months ended 2017 were $4.481 billion, an increase of $177 million over the same period in The increase reflects the premium earned associated with the changes in NWP previously discussed and growth during the last nine months of Claims, benefits and expenses for the three months ended 2017 were $4.467 billion, an increase of $376 million over the same period in The increase was driven by higher catastrophe losses due primarily to hail storms in Texas, and higher auto losses driven by business growth and worsening loss trends. 18

19 Three Months Ended Change U.S. CONSUMER MARKETS (Points) Combined ratio before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years Claims and claim adjustment expense ratio 64.6% 63.1% 1.5 Underwriting expense ratio (1.2) Subtotal Catastrophes Net incurred losses attributable to prior years (0.1) 0.1 (0.2) Total combined ratio 101.3% 96.6% Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. The U.S. Consumer Markets combined ratio before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years for the three months ended 2017 was 88.9%, an increase of 0.3 points over the same period in The increase was driven by an increase in the claims and claim adjustment expense ratio driven by current accident year non-catastrophe losses due to higher severity in the auto line of business. The decrease in the underwriting expense ratio was due to earned premium growth and lower employee related costs. Including the impact of catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years, the total combined ratio for the three months ended 2017 was 101.3%, an increase of 4.7 points over the same period in The increase was driven by higher catastrophe losses and changes in the claims and claim adjustment expense ratio previously discussed, partially offset by favorable changes in the underwriting expense ratio previously discussed. 19

20 Overview Global Consumer Markets East West GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKETS EAST WEST Global Consumer Markets East West sells property and casualty, health and life insurance products and services to individuals and businesses in two operating regions. The two operating regions that comprise Global Consumer Markets East West are West, including Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and West Other; and East, including Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, China, Russia, Turkey, and East Other. Other in each region includes internal reinsurance and home office revenue and expenses. Private passenger automobile insurance is the single largest line of business. On September 30, 2016, the Company completed the sale of substantially all the assets and liabilities of its Polish operation resulting in an immaterial gain. Liberty Ubezpieczenia had approximately $90 million of net written premium in The prior period results of the Polish operation are presented in the Corporate and Other section and are no longer reported in Global Consumer Markets East West. On August 16, 2016, the Company entered into an agreement to sell a 51% interest of its Chinese operations to Sanpower Group. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval. On January 14, 2016, the Company completed the acquisition of Compañia de Seguros Generales Penta Security S.A. ( Penta ), the fourth largest non-life insurer in Chile. Penta had approximately $160 million of net written premium in Global Consumer Markets East West NWP by operating region was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Change ex. foreign exchange 1 West $641 $ % 7.8% East Total NWP $870 $ % 9.9% 1 Determined by assuming constant foreign exchange rates between periods. Global Consumer Markets East West NWP by line of business was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Private passenger automobile $534 $ % Life and health Commercial automobile Homeowners (2.3) Other Total NWP $870 $ % 1 Premium related to other personal and commercial lines including personal accident, bonds, workers compensation, small and medium enterprise, marine and cargo, and commercial property lines of business. NWP for the three months ended 2017 was $870 million, an increase of $112 million over the same period in The increase reflects foreign exchange driven by the weakening of the U.S. dollar against the Brazilian real, changes in terms and coverage to internal reinsurance programs, increased auto business in smaller provinces and favorable renewal of a large liability policy agreement in China, rate increases in auto with favorable retention in Portugal, and strong motor growth due to rate increases in Ireland. 20

21 Results of Operations Global Consumer Markets East West Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Revenues $985 $ % West pre-tax operating (loss) income before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years ($2) $2 NM East pre-tax operating loss before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years (11) (3) NM Catastrophes Net incurred losses attributable to prior years (14.3) Pre-tax operating (loss) income ($1) $13 NM 1 Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. NM = Not Meaningful Pre-tax operating loss for the three months ended 2017 was $1 million versus pre-tax operating income of $13 million for the same period in The decrease was primarily due to weather related losses in Spain, higher frequency and severity in most lines in Singapore, wildfires and other fire losses in property in Chile, less favorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Malaysia and Singapore, and unfavorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Thailand. The decrease was partially offset by lower underwriting losses in Ireland as a result of re-underwriting, the exit from the personal insurance market in Great Britain, and favorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Ireland. Revenues for the three months ended 2017 were $985 million, an increase of $81 million over the same period in The increase was primarily driven by premiums earned associated with the organic growth changes in NWP previously discussed and growth over the last nine months of 2016, partially offset by Ireland as a result of re-underwriting and the exit from the personal insurance market in Great Britain. Claims, benefits and expenses for the three months ended 2017 were $986 million, an increase of $95 million over the same period in The increase reflects foreign exchange driven by the weakening of the U.S. dollar against the Brazilian real, weather related losses in Spain, losses and expenses in China and Portugal associated with business growth, higher frequency and severity in most lines in Singapore, less favorable incurred losses attributable to prior years in Malaysia and Singapore, and reserve releases in 2016 that did not recur in Malaysia. The increase was partially offset by Ireland as a result of re-underwriting, the exit from the personal insurance market in Great Britain, and favorable incurred losses attributable to prior years in Ireland. 21

22 Three Months Ended Change (Points) GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKETS EAST WEST Combined ratio before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years Claims and claim adjustment expense ratio 67.5% 66.3% 1.2 Underwriting expense ratio Subtotal Catastrophes Net incurred losses attributable to prior years (1.5) (1.8) 0.3 Total combined ratio 107.1% 105.3% 1.8 GCM West combined ratio 106.3% 105.8% 0.5 GCM East combined ratio 109.0% 100.9% Catastrophes are defined as a natural catastrophe or terror event exceeding $25 million in estimated ultimate losses, net of reinsurance, and before taxes. Catastrophe losses, where applicable, include the impact of accelerated earned catastrophe premiums and earned reinstatement premiums. The Global Consumer Markets East West combined ratio before catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years for the three months ended 2017 was 108.6%, an increase of 1.5 points over the same period in The increase in the claims and claim adjustment expense ratio was primarily due to weather related losses in Spain and higher frequency and severity in most lines in Singapore. The increase in the underwriting expense ratio was primarily driven by higher commissions in non-auto lines in Brazil. Including the impact of catastrophes and net incurred losses attributable to prior years, the total combined ratio for the three months ended 2017 was 107.1%, an increase of 1.8 points over the same period in The total combined ratio reflects the changes in the combined ratio previously discussed, as well as less favorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Malaysia and Singapore and unfavorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Thailand, partially offset by favorable net incurred losses attributable to prior years in Ireland. 22

23 COMMERCIAL INSURANCE Overview Commercial Insurance Commercial Insurance offers a wide array of property and casualty, benefits, and life insurance coverages through independent agents, brokers, benefit consultants, captive agents, and bank partners throughout the United States. Commercial Insurance is organized into the following four market segments: Business Insurance; National Insurance; Liberty Mutual Benefits; and Other Commercial Insurance. Business Insurance serves small commercial customers through a regional operating model that combines local underwriting, market knowledge and service with the scale advantages of a national company. National Insurance provides commercial lines products and services, including third-party administration, to middle market customers and large businesses. National Insurance is also a servicing carrier for state-based workers compensation involuntary market pools. Liberty Mutual Benefits provides short and long-term disability, accident, health and life insurance to mid-sized and large businesses, as well as life and annuity products to individuals in the United States. Other Commercial Insurance primarily consists of internal reinsurance and assumed business from state-based workers compensation involuntary market pools. Effective January 1, 2017, Commercial Insurance realigned its market segments. The middle market and public entity business, previously in Business Insurance, as well as the Company s servicing carrier business for state-based workers compensation involuntary market pools, previously in Other Commercial Insurance, are now reported within National Insurance. The prior period has been restated to reflect this change. Commercial Insurance NWP by market segment was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Business Insurance $1,084 $1, % National Insurance Liberty Mutual Benefits Other Commercial Insurance Total NWP $2,480 $2, % Commercial Insurance NWP by line of business was as follows: Three Months Ended $ in Millions Change Commercial multiple-peril $537 $ % Workers compensation Voluntary Workers compensation Involuntary Employer disability, life and A&H Commercial automobile General liability Commercial property (9.2) Individual life and annuity Total NWP $2,480 $2, % NWP for the three months ended 2017 was $2.480 billion, an increase of $186 million over the same period in The increase reflects higher employer disability, life and A&H premium due to strong new business sales and greater individual life and annuity premium due to higher life-contingent structured settlement sales. The increase further reflects higher retention and rate increases across the casualty lines, with the most significant rate increase in commercial auto in order to mitigate higher industry-wide loss trends. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in workers compensation audit and retrospective premium, lower workers compensation construction wrapup premium and lower property premium due to continued competitive market pressures. 23