Climate Change and Reinsurance. Nomura's European Sustainable and Responsible Investment Conference Paris, 17 March 2011

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1 Climate Change and Reinsurance Nomura's European Sustainable and Responsible Investment Conference Paris, 17 March 2011

2 Swiss Re at a glance Swiss Re is a leading and highly diversified global (re)insurance company. 147 years of experience in providing wholesale re/insurance and risk management solutions. We deliver both traditional and innovative offerings in Property & Casualty and Life & Health that meet our clients needs. A pioneer in insurance-based capital market solutions, we combine financial strength and unparalleled expertise for the benefit of our clients. Our financial strength is currently rated: Standard & Poor s: A+/positive; Moody s A1/stable; A.M. Best: A/positive 2

3 We enable risk-taking ki that is essential to enterprise and progress Examples We identify if and Climate change identified ifi d as emerging risk evaluate risks almost 20 years ago We select and take risks Insurance of most industrial risks We transfer and trade risks Securitisation of earthquake and hurricane risks We educate and consult on risks Over 50 risk-related publications during the last 12 months 3

4 Looking at emerging risks means thinking beyond the materiality bubble.. 4

5 ESG risks may become material very soon. Developments in emerging markets: rising incomes, changing eating habits more meat consumption rapid urbanization, improving lifestyles, digitization, increasing domestic demand dfor goods and services, increasing energy and power demand increasing greenhouse gas emissions increasing energy, food and metal prices increasing wish for democratic change Emerging risks: natural resources under pressure clean air, water, agricultural soil increasing dependence on critical resources, e.g. Rare Earth Elements (REE) need for better infrastructure conversion to well diversified energy portfolio, low carbon energy technologies population growth food security climate adaptation migration Long term themes: clean energy water infrastructure natural resources 5

6 Climate change risks are highly hl interconnected with other macro themes GHG emissions Storms Flood Sea level Drought Ecosystems Food security Climate Change GHG regulation Health effects Energy security Investments Migration Conflict Slide 6 6

7 Leading scientists i expect a continuing i rise of the global mean temperature IPCC AR4* multi-model model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming** Year 2000 constant concentrations 20th century A2 A1B B1 ( o C) al surface warming Glob 6.0 Estimated probability for 5.0 man-made contribution *** 2007 > 90% > 66% Even if we stop all emissions today, climate is still going to alter *AR4: IPCC Assessment Report 4 ** Base year 1990 *** Based on IPCC AR3 and AR4, published in 2001/2007 Source: IPCC 7

8 Increasing insured weather related losses Issues: Increasing Insurance penetration Population densities Economic values Value concentration in risk prone areas Vulnerability of insured values Hazard cycles and trends, natural & manmade climate change 8

9 Did you notice? New Orleans is actually a flood plane 9

10 Climate Change strategy translating an emerging risk into business 1 Collaborations Assess and manage risk ik Academic research and studies Collaborations with NGO s Reviewer IPCC special report Translating climate change 2 Seize e business opportunities Adaptation t ti insurance solutions Sustainability investment portfolio 3 Influence business environment Swiss climate delegation WEF, Clinton Initiative, G8 Dialogue with clients, employees, public 4 COyou2 Lead by example Greenhouse neutral since 2003 subsidy program into business 10

11 Climate change activities 1 Assess and manage risk Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) Eight regional adaptation strategies Diverse climate and economic development levels Joint execution: Swiss Re's probabilistic NatCat models and McKinsey cost / benefit methodology Public private partnership: EU commission, i Rockefeller, Standard Chartered, McKinsey, Climate Works, Swiss Re Key results: Significant economic value at risk: 1-12(19)% of GDP by 2030 under current (high) climate 40-65% of losses can be averted cost effectively Insurance suited for low-frequency, high-severity events 11

12 Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) 1 Assess (e.g. annual expected losses as % of local GDP and manage risk Rel. impact in % of GDP is higher in low GDP countries Annual expected losses higher in high GDP countries (e g 33bn USD in Florida) total expected loss today residual loss 2030 cost-effectively avertible loss high GDP country low GDP country 12

13 Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) 1 Assess and manage risk How can it be averted? Measures have been ranked by cost / benefit ratio 13

14 Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) 1 Assess and manage risk How can it be averted? Measures have been ranked by cost / benefit ratio Cost/benefit Example city of Hull, UK: Measures below this line have net economic benefits ~65% of total expected loss can be averted cost-effectively ,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 Averted loss $ Millions Flood awareness campaign Sea defence east Sea defence west River Hull defence Mobile protection for content Train staff in emergency response Hydraulic barrier upgrade Flood proofing of floors new building Sandbag buildings strategic location Increasee drainage systems Insurance w/rent Insure public buildings Insurance w/ Insurance contingent capital Decrease SME insurance Build new buildings on podium Closed cell new buildings Sandbag buildings general Flood proofing of floors existing buildings Closed cell insulation existing buildings St Roof foam existing buildings tronger roof fixings existing buildings Roof netting existing buildings 14

15 A number of insurance transactions in the agriculture and public sector 2 Seize business opportunities 2010 Vietnam: Agribank protection against loan defaults by rice farmers due to poor harvests 2010 China: Reinsured Beijing Municipal Government to cap losses from flood, hail, windstorm, and livestock 2010 Alabama: First parametric cover for a government in an industrialized country 2010 Mexico: MultiCat - Funding for immediate relief efforts after disasters 2010 Caribbean: Parametric hurricane and earthquake cover for 16 CARICOM countries MultiCat Bond: Hurricane and earthquake transaction with World Bank and Mexican government 2008 Malawi: Drought coverage with World Bank 2004 India: Protected Basix (MFI) from deficit rainfall (350, farmers insured) 15

16 CHF 487 million in green investments 2 Seize business opportunities 16

17 Capital market instruments Growing in importance 2 Seize business opportunities Total catastrophe bonds outstanding by year USD m 18,000 16,000 14,000 8, ,000 Sponsor value 10,000 8,000 6,000 4, ,000 0 Source: Swiss Re 759 1,412 1,812 1, ,206 2,388 3,502 1,143 3,941 2,500 4,419 5,696 8,462 12,697 11,386 2,980 3,480 9,019 5, Issued Outstanding from Previous Years Underlying rationale for the Insurance Linked Securities (ILS) market continues to hold true Collateralised, multi-year capacity from an alternative market Investor value Diversifying asset class with superior returns 17

18 Member of the official i Swiss Climate Delegation to the UNFCCC negotiations 3 Influence business environment Member of the official Swiss Climate Delegation to the UNFCCC negotiations Steering board members of Climate Wise, Climate Principles Involved in high-level discussions, e.g. at the World Economic Forum, Clinton Global Initiative, UN Assembly, 10 Downing Street, Capitol Hill, G8, US Senate and post-kyoto negotiations. We advocate a long-term, market-based policy framework. 18

19 Swiss Re is greenhouse neutral since Lead by example Greenhouse neutral since October 2003! Goal: Emissions reduction by 45% per employee by the end of 2012 and to offset the rest Actual: Emission reductions by end of 2010: 51.3% - we have more reduced than offset Swiss Re subsidizes up to CHF 5000 of employee investments in green technology 19

20 SAM sector leader 4 Lead by example Swiss Re retained its position as insurance sector leader 2010/2011 in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. Swiss was listed for the first time as one of the World s Most Ethical Companies for 2009 by Ethisphere, a leading international think thank. 20

21 Conclusions 1. Climate change will lead to an increase of nat cat losses 2. Public and private sector (infrastructure intensive industry) will have to adapt 3. Climate change and other macro trends will lead to numerous business opportunities and risks, which have to be monitored carefully 4. Swiss Re supports public and private sector: Risk dialogue with experts, information sharing Risk assessment and quantification Developing innovative risk transfer solutions 21

22 Thank you

23 Corporate calendar & contacts Corporate calendar 25 March 2011 Investors' Day Zurich 15 April th Annual General Meeting Zurich 05 May 2011 First Quarter 2011 results Conference call 04 August 2011 Second Quarter 2011 results Conference call 03 November 2011 Third Quarter 2011 results Conference call 09 December 2011 Investors' Day Investor Relations contacts Hotline Susan Holliday Ross Walker Chris Menth Simone Lieberherr Simone Fessler

24 Cautionary note on forward-looking statements Certain statements and illustrations contained herein are forward-looking. These statements and illustrations provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or current fact. Forward-looking statements typically are identified by words or phrases such as anticipate, assume, believe, continue, estimate, expect, foresee, intend, may increase and may fluctuate and similar expressions or by future or conditional verbs such as will, should, would and could. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause Swiss Re s actual results, performance, achievements or prospects to be materially different from any future results, performance, achievements or prospects expressed or implied by such statements. Such factors include, among others: further instability affecting the global financial system and developments related thereto; changes in global economic conditions; Swiss Re s ability to maintain sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets, including sufficient liquidity to cover potential recapture of reinsurance agreements, early calls of debt or debt-like arrangements and collateral calls under derivative contracts due to actual or perceived deterioration of Swiss Re s financial strength; the effect of market conditions, including the global equity and credit markets, and the level and volatility of equity prices, interest rates, credit spreads, currency values and other market indices, on Swiss Re s investment assets; changes in Swiss Re s investment result as a result of changes in its investment policy or the changed composition of its investment assets, and the impact of the timing of any such changes relative to changes in market conditions; uncertainties in valuing credit default swaps and other credit-related instruments; possible inability to realise amounts on sales of securities i on Swiss Re s balance sheet equivalent to its mark-to-market values recorded for accounting purposes; the outcome of tax audits, the ability to realise tax loss carryforwards and the ability to realise deferred tax assets (including by reason of the mix of earnings in a jurisdiction or deemed change of control), which could negatively impact future earnings; the possibility that hedging arrangements may not be effective; the lowering or loss of financial strength or other ratings of one or more of the companies in the Group or developments adversely affecting the ability to achieve improved ratings; the cyclicality of the reinsurance industry; uncertainties in estimating reserves; the frequency, severity and development of insured claim events; acts of terrorism and acts of war; mortality and morbidity experience; policy renewal and lapse rates; extraordinary events affecting Swiss Re s clients and other counterparties, such as bankruptcies, liquidations and other credit-related events; current, pending and future legislation and regulation affecting Swiss Re or its ceding companies, and regulatory or legal actions; changes in accounting standards; significant ifi investments, t acquisitions iti or dispositions, iti and any delays, unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with any such transactions, including, in the case of acquisitions, issues arising in connection with integrating acquired operations; changing levels of competition; and operational factors, including the efficacy of risk management and other internal procedures in managing the foregoing risks. These factors are not exhaustive. Swiss Re operates in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Swiss Re undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 24

25 Legal notice 2011 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivatives of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without t the prior written permission i of Swiss Re. Although all the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of the details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness thereof or for any damage resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or its Group companies be liable for any financial and/or consequential loss relating to this presentation. 25

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