Group strategic framework. Michel M. Liès Group Chief Executive Officer

Transcription

1 Group strategic framework Michel M. Liès Group Chief Executive Officer

2 Swiss Re's current strategy has been successful Current position Outperform our peers Reinsurance Asset Management Admin Re Smart expansion Corporate Solutions Longevity & Health High Growth Markets Strategic goal: The leading player in the wholesale re/insurance industry 4

3 Our business model has positioned Swiss Re as a leading player Swiss Re Group Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Admin Re P&C L&H Life Capital 1 Strategic goal To be the world's leading reinsurer Current position The foundation of our strengths Strategic goal To be a focused, lean, global player in large commercial business Current position A key opportunity for growth Strategic goal To be a recognised force in the closed life book market Current position Providing cash dividends 1 As of 1 January

4 Delivering on the financial targets has been and remains Swiss Re's top priority ROE 700 bps above risk free average over 5 years ( ) EPS 10% average annual growth rate, adjusted for special dividends 1 ENW per share growth plus dividends 10% avg. annual growth rate over 5 years in % in USD in USD M 2015 = reported ROE = 700 bps above US Gov 5 years avg E M 2015 = reported EPS 2015E = avg. annual growth (base: 2010), adjusted for special dividends H1 2015E 2015 = reported ENWPS including cumulative dividends in USD 4 = 10% avg. annual growth (base: 2010) 1 EPS CAGR of 10% has been adjusted to 5% for 2015 to account for the distribution of excess capital through the special dividend of USD 1.1bn in April Methodology is in line with the approach taken for the special dividend of USD 1.6bn paid in April 2014 and USD 1.5bn paid in April Assumes constant foreign exchange rate 3 Excl. CPCI 4 Cumulative dividends included in ENW per share were translated from CHF to USD using the fx rate of the dividend payment date; dividends included for 2011: USD 3.1 (CHF 2.75), 2012: USD 6.4 (CHF 3.00, or USD 3.3, in addition to the 2011 dividend), 2013: USD 14.5 (CHF 7.50, or USD 8.05, in addition to the 2011 and 2012 dividends), 2014: USD 23.5 (CHF 8.00, or USD 9.03, in addition to the 2011, 2012 and 2013 dividends), 2015: USD 31.1 (CHF 7.25, or USD 7.61 in addition to the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 dividends) 6

5 We have delivered a market leading total return to our shareholders Annualised total return to shareholders ( ) 1 Swiss Re Sample of reinsurers 3 Sample of re/insurers 4 STOXX Europe 600 Insurance MSCI Index 5 12% 11% 8% 10% 2 22% 5% 15% 4% 12% 14% 9% Share price development Dividend driven return Swiss Re had one of the highest annualised total returns to shareholders compared to samples of insurers and reinsurers and to reference indices over the period from 2011 to December 2010 to 30 November 2015, based on USD 2 Includes special dividends 3 Weighted average of Everest Re, Hannover Re, Munich Re, RGA, RenRe, SCOR 4 Weighted average of ACE, Allianz, AIG, AXA, XL Group, Zurich, and reinsurers mentioned in footnote 3 5 MSCI Daily Total Return Gross World Index 7

6 Swiss Re faces various challenges and opportunities Current Low margins Low yield, low growth environment; regulatory changes Industry consolidation Volatility in High Growth Markets Future Evolution of primary players with rich customer insights Impact of technology Reshuffling of value chain New and enlarging risk pools 8

7 Closing the protection gap and providing solutions for emerging risks will improve global resilience Protection gap Mortality: USD 105 trillion globally 2 Nat Cat: USD 1.3 trillion Casualty accumulation: e.g. estimated US asbestos litigation costs USD 85bn 3 Cyber: USD 10bn market by 2020? 4 Connected health: 20% market share for wearables-based health insurance products by 2025? 6 Emerging risk pools Connected car: EUR 50bn market of telematics-based car insurance by 2020? 5 Sources: 1 Swiss Re Sigma 5/ Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting 3 Guy Carpenter September ABI Research and Swiss Re estimate 5 Ptolemus Consulting estimate 6 Roland Berger estimate 9

8 Today we introduce our strategic framework, which will enable us to achieve our new financial targets Building upon our successful strategy introduced in 2011 Moving to the next stage of our transformation into a capital allocator Emphasising four areas of strategic action going forward Areas of strategic action Group financial targets I systematically allocate capital to risk pools / revenue streams broaden and diversify client base to increase access to risk emphasise differentiation optimise resources and platforms to support capital allocation ROE risk free + 700bps 1 maintain capital management priorities ENW per share growth 10% p.a bps above risk free (10-year US Gov Bonds); Swiss Re management to monitor a basket of rates reflecting Swiss Re's business mix; over the cycle 2 Year-end ENW + dividends from current year divided by previous year end ENW; all per share; over the cycle 10

9 Successful aspects of our business model are affirmed under our strategic framework Wholesale re/insurance Continued focus on wholesale re/insurance Pursue selected strategic initiatives to access attractive risk pools Global scale and diversification Balance sheet for risk Global reach enabling efficient capital allocation to achieve profitable growth Benefits from geographic, business mix and client segment diversification Superior balance sheet, credit rating and solvency position allowing flexibility Underwriting and asset management discipline with superior risk selection Premium brand Strategic controller A leading reinsurance franchise with over 150 years of history A preferred partner resulting in long and deep client relationships Group focus on strategy, capital and talent while empowering Business Units to execute Business Unit structure benefits from flexibility and efficiency Group strategic framework focuses on systematically allocating capital and resources to provide optionality for value creation 11

10 Agenda I systematically allocate capital to risk pools / revenue streams broaden and diversify client base to increase access to risk optimise resources and platforms to support capital allocation emphasise differentiation 12

11 I Key drivers leading to outperformance in value creation Risk selection Extensive R&D providing a competitive advantage (requires economies of scale) Proprietary modelling capabilities to quickly adapt models based on lessons learnt and outlook Capital allocation Capital deployment based on expected return Optimal portfolio mix to meet different hurdle rates 1 Portfolio management Active monitoring and hedging of liabilities and continued optimisation of the asset portfolio Maximise absolute economic profit subject to risk tolerance constraints A multi-risk book provides numerous advantages in addition to capital related diversification benefits 1 EVM, US GAAP, cash flow 13

12 I Swiss Re actively manages liability and asset risk pools Illustrative Liability risk pools P&C Reinsurance L&H Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Life Capital 1 Mortality Longevity Health Property Casualty Specialty Asset risk pools Cash and shortterm investments Government bonds Credit investments Equities & alternatives Swiss Re benefits from diversification through access to different pools of liability and asset risks Group has the flexibility to (re-)allocate capital between lines of business, asset classes and regions 1 Effective 1 January 2016 Note: Bars illustrate current exposure to risk pools 14

13 Return Return I Swiss Re s portfolio selection maximises value creation Asset risk selection is based on the requirement to match insurance liabilities within strict risk limits and the search for attractive risk-return patterns Liability risk selection balances Swiss Re s profitability levels and attractiveness of markets Swiss Re targets an optimal portfolio of asset and liability risks to balance short-term targets with long-term shareholder value creation High Selected asset risks High risk/return High Selected liability risks High risk/return Equities & alternatives (incl. Principal Investments) Property Re (incl. Nat Cat) Low Low Government bonds Credit Investments Cash and short-term investments Low risk/return Risk High Low Health Re Low risk/return Low Specialty Re Specialty Commercial Risk Property Commercial High Bubble size reflects asset allocation Bubble size reflects premium volume Note: Return based on historic 3 year economic profitability. Risk based on standalone SST risk capital requirements. 15

14 Agenda I systematically allocate capital to risk pools / revenue streams broaden and diversify client base to increase access to risk optimise resources and platforms to support capital allocation emphasise differentiation 16

15 I Three ways to broaden and diversify our access to risk Geographies Clients Risks Extend leadership in mature markets Maintain market leadership in High Growth Markets (HGM) Offer tailored solutions Access new clients Develop innovative approaches Leverage Swiss Re s knowledge and thought leadership Enhance capabilities and new products 17

16 I Geographies Dedicated initiatives in place to maintain leading position in HGM Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Expansion in focus countries Organic growth Partnerships Principal Investments Further broadening the footprint Organic growth New offices Acquisitions Swiss Re Group Aspiration for % HGM premium share 15% 27% 30% Investment in selected HGM countries Increase exposure Complement HGM focus of Business Units Optimise diversification Coordination and advisory for HGM Dedicated strategic initiatives across Swiss Re in place to remain the leading wholesale re/insurer in HGM 18

17 I Clients Broadening our access through profitable growth initiatives Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Life Capital Continued focus Global insurance companies Large insurance companies Large corporates Insurance companies Pension funds Dedicated growth initiatives Regional and National insurance companies Mid-size corporates Governments & supranationals Distribution partners New forms of exposure to client pools Principal Investments Dedicated growth initiatives targeting Regional & National companies in Reinsurance, mid-size corporates in Corporate Solutions, and distribution partners in Life Capital Innovative approaches to access new client pools, extending beyond the traditional business models 19

18 I Clients Swiss Re Global Partnerships enables the Group to broaden our client base and address the protection gap First dedicated public sector team in the reinsurance industry Over 200 closed transactions since 2006 Develop insurance, reinsurance and capital markets solutions on all perils (natural disasters, weather risks, pandemics, etc.) Global footprint Pioneer in emerging and industrialised markets Florida Hurricane risk Louisiana Hurricane risk Mexico Earthquake/hurricane and livestock risk Uruguay Energy production shortfalls due to drought Caribbean Hurricane, earthquake and excess rainfall risk African Risk Capacity Government drought insurance pool United Kingdom Flood risk India Weather insurance for farmers Turkey Earthquake pool Vietnam Agriculture yield cover Thailand Crop insurance Bangladesh Flood insurance Beijing Agricultural risk Pacific Islands Earthquake and tropical cyclone risk Shenzhen typhoon/rainfall 20

19 E 2020E 2025E I Risks Selected access to additional risk pools Health portfolio Cyber Mortality gap Infrastructure investments Health lines are emerging as key markets USD 2bn premiums globally in 2014 USD 105tr mortality protection gap Infrastructure investment enhances economic growth Global health premiums, USD bn Cyber market premiums (base case), USD bn E E RoW E US 7-8 Mortality protection gap by region, USD trn Latin America Europe North America Asia Expected % of GDP spending requirement in infrastructure vs historicals Europe Continental Europe Historical average, UK and 2.3 Ireland Required spending (to achieve 1.7% p.a. real GDP growth) Focusing on product development leveraging aging, technology, and data to increase share in global medical reinsurance Investing significantly in the understanding of cyber risks, rolling out solutions prudently in the primary and reinsurance space Building on excellent biometric data to develop innovative solutions in the primary insurance and reinsurance market Helping establish infrastructure debt as tradable asset class to strengthen longterm investors capacity to support the real economy Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting; Swiss Re estimates; McKinsey Global Institute 21

20 Agenda I systematically allocate capital to risk pools / revenue streams broaden and diversify client base to increase access to risk optimise resources and platforms to support capital allocation emphasise differentiation 22

21 I Swiss Re optimises resources and platforms to support capital allocation Talent IT platforms Examples Alignment of the workforce to actively support our HGM strategy (e.g. increase of FTE in Latin America and Asia by 421% and 66% respectively since 2011) Simplification, modernisation, and integration of IT architecture (e.g. 20% net reduction of applications, consolidation to two main data centres) Distribution platforms Leverage distribution platforms to maximise value from our wholesale model (e.g. distribution partnerships in Life Capital via elipslife and iptiq) Smart analytics Use of smart analytics and cognitive computing to improve our underwriting capabilities (e.g. impact from 200 examples identified) Asset Management Continued development of our AM capabilities (e.g. first Swiss company to receive Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor license) Funding platform Flexible access to funding for our businesses (e.g. access to external funding recently established for Swiss Re Ltd, Corporate Solutions and Life Capital) Dynamic and forward-looking capital allocation supported by agile resources and platforms 23

22 I Swiss Re has more than doubled its workforce in HGMs between 2011 and 2015 Latin America FTEs Africa FTEs Asia FTEs Jan 2011 Jun 2015 Jan 2011 Jun 2015 Jan 2011 Jun 2015 ~140 ~730 ~40 ~60 ~860 1 ~ Mexico China Brazil India 2 ` Indonesia HGM Long-term focus Reinsurance Principal Investments (PI) Targeted by Reinsurance and Corporate Solutions Long-term focus Corporate Solutions We successfully increased our workforce in HGMs and will continue in line with our 2020 aspiration 1 Including Shared Service Centre of 430 FTEs in 2011 and 580 FTEs in Bangalore 41% of Asian FTEs in

23 I Swiss Re adopts smart analytics and cognitive computing to further extend its competitive positioning Selected examples from over 200 delivered cases Transparent motor China Rapid sales analytics Reinsurance Client and market intelligence Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Screening risk engineering reports Corporate Solutions Contract intelligence hub Group For China, we have built a sophisticated model predicting motor accident frequencies leveraging a wide range of data sources Analysing internal and external communication, we quantify Swiss Re client relationships and identify hot topics and market trends Improve sales effectiveness: binding likelihood increases by 20% when sales activities happen after quotes Through text analytics, we structure a large number of property risk reports, reducing the single risk report analysis time down from 4 hours to real time We have developed an advanced contract analytics solution covering all re/insurance contracts from all lines which allows us to analyse clauses Competence centre for smart analytics (30 data scientists, 200 smart analytics affine re/insurance professionals) Cognitive computing competence centre which Swiss Re is jointly building with IBM 25

24 Agenda I systematically allocate capital to risk pools / revenue streams broaden and diversify client base to increase access to risk optimise resources and platforms to support capital allocation emphasise differentiation 26

25 I Active differentiation remains pivotal to extending our lead as a knowledge company and allocator of risk capital Financial strength Capital strength Financial flexibility Integrated risk management and systematic ALM Distinctive access to contingent capital Client relationships Preferred partner Decade-long relationships Global presence and broad product offering Knowledge company Thought leadership Technical expertise Risk insights and modelling Proprietary data and research 'We re smarter together' 27

26 I Swiss Re benefits from direct access to clients in all Business Units Percentage of premiums derived from non-intermediated business, 9M % 96% 11% 100% P&C Reinsurance L&H Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Life Capital 1 Swiss Re differentiation based on unique access to clients and development of tailored risk solutions Direct client interactions also for intermediated business 1 Reflects Admin Re 28

27 I Delivering distinctive thought leadership, R&D and industry dialogue through unique channels Distinctive thought leadership State-of-the art delivery Large and highly educated pool of talents 300 FTEs working on research matters 30 FTEs in Economic Research & Consulting, 50 FTEs in nat cat modelling Client and expert events 100+ client and expert events per year hosted at the Centre for Global dialogue for clients ( people) 50+ client training courses offered Acclaimed proprietary research into trends and products Wide-ranging global database, covering all types of insurance markets and products First-class client events Industry-leading sigma publications On-the-go access to knowledge Research and publications in partnership with leading institutions Our thought leadership is a true driver of business impact: highly informed decisions, access to world-class talents, state-of-the-art support for clients, impacting societal development 29

28 Agenda I systematically allocate capital to risk pools / revenue streams broaden and diversify client base to increase access to risk optimise resources and platforms to support capital allocation emphasise differentiation Summary 30

29 Our strategic framework positions us strongly vis-à-vis current and future challenges and opportunities Examples Examples Low margins Growing tailored solutions Industry consolidation Broadening our access to client and risk pools Current Low yield, low growth environment; regulatory changes Optimised AM and funding Volatility in High Growth Markets Agile capital (re-)allocation & wholesale approach Evolution of primary players with rich customer insights Investing to differentiate on knowledge leadership Reshuffling of value chain Creating optionality through strategic partnerships Future Impact of technology Embedding cognitive computing in our UW New and enlarging risk pools Bringing new sustainable solutions to the market 31

30 Our four areas of strategic action create long-term value for our shareholders I systematically allocate capital to risk pools / revenue streams Profitability: ROE Focus on attractive opportunities above our return hurdles Sustain long-term earnings through effective portfolio steering Deliver market leading returns broaden and diversify client base to increase access to risk optimise resources and platforms to support capital allocation emphasise differentiation Growth: ENW per share P&C Reinsurance remains a key contributor through differentiation and underwriting discipline L&H Reinsurance benefits from increasing demand Corporate Solutions expands into Primary Lead and broadens the footprint Life Capital pursues growth opportunities 32

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32 Corporate calendar & contacts Corporate calendar February Annual Results 2015 Conference call 16 March Publication of Annual Report 2015 and EVM April 152 nd Annual General Meeting Zurich 29 April First Quarter 2016 Results Conference call Investor Relations contacts Hotline Philippe Brahin Jutta Bopp Chris Menth Simone Lieberherr Iunia Rauch-Chisacof

33 Cautionary note on forward-looking statements Certain statements and illustrations contained herein are forward-looking. These statements (including as to plans objectives, targets and trends) and illustrations provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or current fact. Forward-looking statements typically are identified by words or phrases such as anticipate, assume, believe, continue, estimate, expect, foresee, intend, may increase and may fluctuate and similar expressions or by future or conditional verbs such as will, should, would and could. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause Swiss Re s actual results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, capital or liquidity positions or prospects to be materially different from any future results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, capital or liquidity positions or prospects expressed or implied by such statements or cause Swiss Re to not achieve its published targets. Such factors include, among others: further instability affecting the global financial system and developments related thereto; deterioration in global economic conditions; Swiss Re s ability to maintain sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets, including sufficient liquidity to cover potential recapture of reinsurance agreements, early calls of debt or debt-like arrangements and collateral calls due to actual or perceived deterioration of Swiss Re s financial strength or otherwise; the effect of market conditions, including the global equity and credit markets, and the level and volatility of equity prices, interest rates, credit spreads, currency values and other market indices, on Swiss Re s investment assets; changes in Swiss Re s investment result as a result of changes in its investment policy or the changed composition of its investment assets, and the impact of the timing of any such changes relative to changes in market conditions; uncertainties in valuing credit default swaps and other credit-related instruments; possible inability to realise amounts on sales of securities on Swiss Re s balance sheet equivalent to their mark-to-market values recorded for accounting purposes; the outcome of tax audits, the ability to realise tax loss carryforwards and the ability to realise deferred tax assets (including by reason of the mix of earnings in a jurisdiction or deemed change of control), which could negatively impact future earnings; the possibility that Swiss Re s hedging arrangements may not be effective; the lowering or loss of one of the financial strength or other ratings of one or more Swiss Re companies, and developments adversely affecting Swiss Re s ability to achieve improved ratings; the cyclicality of the reinsurance industry; uncertainties in estimating reserves; uncertainties in estimating future claims for purposes of financial reporting, particularly with respect to large natural catastrophes, as significant uncertainties may be involved in estimating losses from such events and preliminary estimates may be subject to change as new information becomes available; the frequency, severity and development of insured claim events; acts of terrorism and acts of war; mortality, morbidity and longevity experience; policy renewal and lapse rates; extraordinary events affecting Swiss Re s clients and other counterparties, such as bankruptcies, liquidations and other credit-related events; current, pending and future legislation and regulation affecting Swiss Re or its ceding companies, and the interpretation of legislation or regulations by regulators; legal actions or regulatory investigations or actions, including those in respect of industry requirements or business conduct rules of general applicability; changes in accounting standards; significant investments, acquisitions or dispositions, and any delays, unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with any such transactions; changing levels of competition; and operational factors, including the efficacy of risk management and other internal procedures in managing the foregoing risks. These factors are not exhaustive. Swiss Re operates in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Swiss Re undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This communication is not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and does not constitute an offer for the sale of, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities in any jurisdiction, including the United States. Any such offer will only be made by means of a prospectus or offering memorandum, and in compliance with applicable securities laws.