Do We Have Enough Money?

Transcription

1 Presented by: John Sherrill Illinois Environmental Protection Agency John Wade Senior Consulting Actuary, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.

2

3 John Sherrill Illinois Environmental Protection Agency Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted. Albert Einstein

4 Illinois Methods to Calculate the Average Cleanup Cost per Site Should the average cost reflect: * A 26-year running arithmetic mean that includes the first eligible UST from 1984? $58,065 * The year the petroleum release was reported? ( for example) Year 1999 = $216,376 Year 2004 = $241,085 Year 2009 = $86,391 * The year the remediation was complete? Year 1999 = $55,786 Year 2004 = $125,083 Year 2009 = $213,264 * The cost of borrowing money? * Multiple releases at the same site? Does a $1.5 million cap apply once for each release? * The top ten percent expensive sites that have treatment system? ($568,928) vs. smaller surface spills or localized underground contamination ($50,913). * Whether the facility is actively dispensing fuel or not? Do you have this data?

5 Do We have Enough Money? 4,755 Closed Illinois Incidents that Incurred Reimbursements Number of Closed Incidents for Three Cost Categories This 10%, by volume, of closed sites received 47% ($260 million) of the reimbursement funds. AVERAGE = $568,928 $300,000 to $1,500,000 Just 457 sites $100,000 to $299, incidents 20% of the incidents $$$ Big dig & haul and/or treatment systems This 70%, by volume, of closed sites received 22% ($170 million) of the reimbursement funds. AVERAGE = $50,913 This 20%, by volume, of closed sites received 31% ($270 million) of the reimbursement funds. AVERAGE = $281,543 AVERAGE = $ Low-Price Pi Clean-Ups $1 to $99,999 3,339 incidents 70% of the incidents Total average = $147,213 Surface spills and localized contamination. No treatment system ever in-place.

6 Do We have Enough Money? Simple 26-Year Running Average, Illinois Example Fact 1. Approximately $900 million total reimbursed from 1984 to present Fact 2. Approximately 15,500 closed incidents Mathematical Fact: $900,000, ,500 closed incidents = $58,065 per per total incidents = $58,065 per total incident Another way to Analyze: $ Amount spent on only closed incidents $600,000,000? 15,500 closed Incidents = $45,161 per closed incident

7 ?Two Illinois Methods to Determine Average Cost (for Incidents that Incurred Reimbursable Costs) Average Cost Reimbursed per Closed Incident, Based upon the Year the Cleanup Was Complete Average Cost Reimbursed per Closed Incident, Based upon the Year the Incident Was Initially Reported Year Was Complete Initially Reported 1999 $55,786 $216, $65,605 $219, $89,183 $160, $105,070 $62, $127,887 $151, $125,083 $241, $162,355 $167, $178,680 $87, $200,357 $102, $213,264 $86,391 This method shows the average cost is drastically increasing each year. This method shows the average costs is decreasing for each of the last four years.

8 Illinois Leaking Underground Storage Tank Data, Open Incidents Year Number of Open Eligible Incidents, from Year Incident Was Initially Reported Number of Open Eligible Incidents, that Have Incurred Reimbursable Costs Average Cost Already Reimbursed for Open Incidents Number of Open Eligible Incidents that Have Not Incurred Any Reimbursable Costs, from Year Incident Was Initially Reported 1984 & $1,008, $146, $386, $296, $250, $207, $236, $203, $182, $183, $163, $250, $159, $204, $196, $198, $180, $190, $119, $133, $107, $104, $79, $67, $70, Totals 7,875 2,324 5, $207,

9 Estimated Costs of All Future Claims, Illinois Example (with Three Levels of Estimates - High, Medium, and Low) Step 1. 5,551 Open Incidents that Have Incurred No Reimbursable Costs That is, these sites have not started cleanup. High Medium Low Number of Incidents: 5,551 5,551 5,551 Estimated Average Costs: x $200,000 x $150,000 x $100,000 Total: = $1,110,200,000 = $832,650,000 = $555,100,000 Step 2. 2,340 Open Incidents that Have Already Incurred Reimbursable Costs, but Not Closed How much additional costs will be incurred? High Medium Low Number of Incidents: 2,340 2,340 2,340 Estimated Additional Costs: x $250,000 x $150,000 x $50,000 Total: = $585,000,000 = $351,000,000 = $117,000,000 Step New Incidents per Year The average amount reimbursed per closed incident, for incidents originating in 2006, 2007 or 2008, is $92,000. High Medium Low Number of Incidents: Estimated Average Costs: x $200,000 x $92,000 x $10,000 Total: = $80,000,000 = $36,800,000 = $4,000,000 Step 4. (Sum) Estimated Range of Costs (adding Steps 1, 2 and 3 above) High Medium Low Legacy $1,695,200,000 $1,183,650,000 $672,100,000 plus yearly ongoing: $80,000,000 $36,800,000 $4,000,000

10 Summary: There is no such thing as a single, average cleanup cost. Assumptions dramatically affect your average cleanup cost. Think through what is relevant to your program. Recommend ASTSWMO and USEPA establish a committee to develop a uniform set of assumptions to calculate l an average cleanup cost. Argue that at least two or three methods be developed, each with their own specific assumptions; ask the states to report those numbers.

11

12 John Wade Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.... that which we call a rose, by any other name would smell as sweet William Shakespeare

13 John Wade Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.... that which we call a rose, by any other name would smell as sweet William Shakespeare A rose by any other name, still stinks. Anonymous

14 Underground Storage Tank Fund Ultimate li Losses by Reported Fiscal Year As of 06/30/09

15 Definitions Report Year, Release Year IBNR Known Claims versus Unknown Claims Loss Triangle Loss Development Tail Factor

16 Underground Storage Tank Fund Loss Development Triangle

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28 1.000 Portion Paid Portion Paid

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47 Points to Consider Data Sources, Formats, Reliability Data Type (Payments, Obligations) Assumptions (Loss Development, Tail) Regulatory, Statutory, t t Other Restrictions ti Future Changes, Sunsets

48 Questions?