DATE SUBMITTED 2009/06/10. 1 ST AUTHOR LAST NAME Rozar. 1 ST AUTHOR FIRST NAME Timothy L

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1 37_abstract_Rozar, Rushing An Analysis of Prescription Histories and Mortality DATE SUBMITTED 2009/06/10 1 ST AUTHOR LAST NAME Rozar 1 ST AUTHOR FIRST NAME Timothy L 1 ST AUTHOR AFFILIATION(S) FSA, CERA, MAAA; Vice President & Actuary, RGA Reinsurance Company USA Scott A Rushing, Timothy L Rozar trozar@rgare.com paper The authors have previously published an article with the same title in the March 2009 issue of the Journal of the Academy of Life Underwriting (Vol. 25, No. 1). The paper submitted to the ICA will expand and build upon the research and results presented in that paper. Abstract submitted as a PDF Timothy L. Rozar, FSA, CERA, MAAA Vice President & Actuary, RGA Reinsurance Company trozar@rgare.com Tel: Scott A. Rushing, FSA, MAAA Actuary, RGA Reinsurance Company srushing@rgare.com Tel: An Analysis of Prescription Histories and Mortality Authors and researchers Tim Rozar and Scott Rushing submit the following abstract for an language paper for the 2010 International Congress of Actuaries. The authors have previously published an article with the same title in the March 2009 issue of the Journal of the Academy of Life Underwriting (Vol. 25, No. 1). The paper submitted to the ICA will expand and build upon the research and results presented in that paper.

2 ABSTRACT The use of electronic evidence has proliferated in the U.S. individual life insurance market as companies attempt to improve the speed and risk assessment effectiveness of the underwriting process. Among these tools are electronic histories of pharmaceuticals prescribed to potential applicants. This paper will study the predictive power of prescription drug histories on mortality outcomes and will seek to determine the exclusive incremental mortality savings that may be obtained by underwriting with prescription history information. The authors have performed an actuarial mortality study on a dataset with more than 1 million insurance applicants and over 25 million prescription history fills. The results from this large study provide credible relative mortality differentials based on the gender and age of the applicant along with the severity and fill frequency of the drugs each applicant has been prescribed. The mortality study results will be used to comment on the efficacy of utilizing prescription histories for underwriting individual life insurance cases and for segregating applicants into relative mortality risk cohorts. Authors: Timothy L. Rozar, FSA, CERA, MAAA Vice President & Actuary, RGA Reinsurance Company trozar@rgare.com Tel: Scott A. Rushing, FSA, MAAA Actuary, RGA Reinsurance Company srushing@rgare.com Tel:

3 122_abstract_Venter DATE SUBMITTED 2009/06/22 1 ST AUTHOR LAST NAME Venter 1 ST AUTHOR FIRST NAME Gary 1 ST AUTHOR AFFILIATION(S) Columbia University Mortality Projection for US Workers Compensation Annuity Claims USA None Gary Venter gary.venter@gmail.com Paper No answer Mortality Projection for US Workers Compensation Annuity Claims Previous studies have found that mortality in the US for permanently injured workers after medical stabilization is similar to that for the population as a whole. This is higher mortality than for typical annuity recipients, who are usually select in some way. US male and female mortality trends are modeled using additive-multiplicative fixed effects and polynomial models for log-mortality, both adjusted in various ways for cohort effects. Particular trend histories for males and females under 50 suggest that specific models be used for those ages, and patterns suggest that ages 90 and above have either data issues or a different trend before Thus the study is restricted to ages The models are compared by penalized maximum likelihood. Somewhat different trends are found for male and female mortality. Corresponding author: Gary G. Venter, Columbia University, gary.venter@gmail.com.

4 148_abstract_Sweeting DATE SUBMITTED 2009/07/16 1 ST AUTHOR LAST NAME Sweeting 1 ST AUTHOR FIRST NAME Paul 1 ST AUTHOR AFFILIATION(S) A Trend-Change Extension of the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Model University of Kent (from 1 September 2009); also visiting fellow at Cass Business School UK None Paul Sweeting mail@paulsweeting.co.uk Paper No A Trend-Change Extension of the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Model This paper builds on the two-factor model published in the Journal of Risk and Insurance by Cairns et al (2006) the CBD model for projecting future mortality. Whilst more complex models exist, the CBD model s simplicity is attractive and better allows the demonstration of the approach in this paper. The CBD model assumes that each of the two parameters follows a random walk with drift, the rate of drift being constant and changes in the parameters being correlated. This approach is well-suited for the pricing of mortality-related derivatives with a term of a few years; however, when considering the very long-term, the patterns for these two factors do not necessarily resemble a random walk and each of the factors should be modeled as a random fluctuation around a trend, the trend changing periodically. The CBD model is calibrated using data for England and Wales males from age 60 to 89 over the period 1961 to However, this is a relatively short timescale which has seen a steady pattern of improvements in life expectancy. It is not reasonable to expect this constancy to continue indefinitely into the future, something which can be seen by considering past mortality rate improvements over a longer period I look at the period from 1841 to 2005, still using England and Wales males age 60 to 89. Analysis over this period shows sudden changes in the parameter trends. Projecting mortality rates under this assumption suggests much greater uncertainty over future mortality improvements in the long term. Author: Paul Sweeting PhD FIA CFA

5 Affiliation: University of Kent (from 1 September 2009); also visiting fellow at Cass Business School Contact details: mail@paulsweeting.co.uk; Submission type: paper Language of paper/presentation: Previous publication/presentation: none Words: 300

6 190_abstract_Haq Mortality Trend in Bangladesh - Life Insurance Experience DATE SUBMITTED 2009/10/12 1 ST AUTHOR LAST NAME Haq 1 ST AUTHOR FIRST NAME M Ahsanul 1 ST AUTHOR AFFILIATION(S) Treasurer, Actuarial Society of Bangladesh (ASB); Student Member, Institute of Actuaries Bangladesh None M Ahsanul Haq ahsan21aug@gmail.com Paper No answer Bursary applicant Mortality Trend in Bangladesh - Life Insurance Experience M. Ahsanul Haq Abstract: Bangladesh is a country of about 170 million people. 70 million people are between 18 to 65 age group. Recent statistics of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics year book 2008 reported that life expectancy is 66 years. There are 17 domestic and 1 foreign company is operating the life Insurance Business. These companies are marketing life Insurance Product among the age group 18 to 55 mainly. Most of these domestic Life Insurance Company using Indian 70 decades Life Table for their product pricing because absent of Bangladesh Life Table. Noted that maximum Domestic Life Insurance have no appointed actuary. Two actuaries mainly involved in pricing and valuation of these companies. Actuaries may disappoint that there are no statistics of mortality experience in Life Insurance Industries. Actuarial Society of Bangladesh (ASB) conducted a survey of 500 random death Claims in a certain life insurance company to find the mortality trend in Bangladesh Life Insurance Industries for the first time in Bangladesh by cause, age and gender specific. Table No. of deaths by Cause, age and gender specific Age Distribution Gender SL. Cause of < Total Death Male Female Total 1 Heart Attack Heart Disease Respiratory Failure Brain Hemorrhage Hypertension Brain Tumor Renal Disease Liver Disease A Liver Disease B Liver Disease C Cancer- Blood Cancer - Bone Cancer - Brest Cancer Lung Other Cancer

7 16 Road Accident Other Accident Diarrhea Peptic Ulcer Pregnancy- Delivery Malaria Typhoid Pneumonia Bronchial Disease Killed by Terrorist Suicide Snake Bite Hydrophobia Diphtheria Epilepsy Total Comments: 1. Heart attack, Heart disease, Respiratory Failure, Brain Hemorrhage is practically related with blood circulation system and heart. At 5% level of significance association between these four types of diseases shows very high relationship in this data. 2. Female death frequencies are higher than Male death frequencies in case of Brain Tumor, Blood Cancer and other type of Cancers. 3. In Suicidal case it observed in the data that Male death frequencies are higher than the female frequencies. But in Practical situation it seen that Female death rate is greater than the Male death rate. This error may be reduced if the data size will be increased. Conclusion: It just an initial stage to find the Mortality Trend in Bangladesh. Hope that it will be developed day by day to study more exclusively. About the Author: M. Ahsanul Haq Treasurer Actuarial Society of Bangladesh (ASB) Mobile # ahsan21aug@gmail.com Student Member Institute of Actuaries ARN Δ Δ Δ M. Ahsanul Haq serves the Actuarial Society of Bangladesh (ASB) and the Nation as a volunteer to organize the Actuarial Profession as well as awareness building. Currently he is serving in a local Life Insurance Company as the Head of Claims Department. He is also involved in other Positive Social movements in Bangladesh.