NZ Funds KiwiSaver Scheme Strategy Profiles

Transcription

1 NZ Funds KiwiSaver Scheme Strategy Profiles 31 July 2015

2 Income Strategy investment objective risk and volatility lifecycle allocation investment statement The objective of the Income Strategy is to provide exposure to income-orientated assets using an active investment management approach. The Strategy is likely to exhibit medium risk and volatility characteristics. The LifeCycle Portfolio Management process allocates 5% of a member s funds to this Strategy. This allocation will remain constant until a member reaches age 60, from when it will gradually increase to 30% at age 65. Further information is contained in the Investment Statement for the NZ Funds KiwiSaver Scheme. A copy can be downloaded from The Strategy returned 0.79% in July 2015, taking annual performance to 1.47% 1. Meet your specialist mangers We have recently increased the exposure in the Strategy to Harness, one of the external investment managers. Harness role in the Strategy is to add value through active currency management. While the Strategy invests in global fixed interest bonds, this exposure is hedged back to the New Zealand dollar via foreign currency forwards. This means the Strategy is not impacted by changes in the New Zealand dollar despite the assets being outside the country. While this means the Strategy currently has no direct foreign currency exposure, when reviewing possible international fixed interest managers we have noted that many take currency exposures within their portfolio. In fact as the returns from fixed income assets have declined we have noted that these fixed interest managers have targeted around one-third of the return to come from foreign currency management. We have no problems with this exposure per se. It is within the mandate of the managers and is subject to strict risk management, nevertheless we question whether fixed interest managers are the right people to implement these trades. We have taken the view that we would rather have world class fixed interest managers and world class currency managers. We want to use market specialists not generalists. Last year we appointed Harness as a specialist currency manager in the Strategy. Harness manage a very disciplined fundamental-based currency fund, where 100% of the return comes from their currency positions. By investing this way, the performance of this manager is transparent so we are able to closely track the return from currency exposure. Over time we expect Harness to return around 10% p.a. This implies that with the increased exposure, active currency management could add around 1% to the Strategy return. The Strategy's specialist managers BlackRock New York City NY, USA FUM: USD 4.7 trillion 1 Semper New York City NY, USA FUM: USD 13.3 billion 3 NZ Funds Auckland, New Zealand FUM: NZD 927 million 5 Nordea/ DoubleLine Los Angeles CA, USA FUM: USD 63 billion 2 Wellington Management Boston MA, USA FUM: USD 892 billion 4 Harness Investment Vésenaz, Switzerland FUM: USD 770 million As at December 2014 As at December 2014 As at June 2015 As at September As at July 2015 As at March Harness Macro Currency Strategy Performance Income Strategy 1 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 2 3 years 2 Since inception 3 Max. decline Volatility 12 months 4 12 months 5 After fees, before tax 0.79% -0.48% -0.11% 1.47% 6.33% 10.79% 20.55% -2.13% 2.04% After fees and tax at the highest PIE tax rate 0.62% -0.08% -0.03% 1.20% 4.80% 7.95% 14.57% n/a n/a 1. After fees, before tax returns are stated after Strategy fees and expenses, but before any advisory fees or investor tax. After fees and tax returns are stated after Strategy fees and expenses and investor tax at the highest Prescribed Investor Rate (PIR). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future returns. 2. Cumulative Strategy returns September Returns should be looked at in conjunction with the level of risk associated with an investment. We use maximum decline as a measure of risk. It represents the largest decline in value experienced during the last 12 months. 5. This is the annualised standard deviation of the Strategy. It is calculated based on the last 12 months daily returns of the Strategy. For more details on the Strategy s Maximum Decline and Volatility please contact NZ Funds.

3 Income Strategy / security manager exposure $ exposure % cash and cash equivalents -1.1% expected maturity credit rating estimated yield 1 Bank deposits NZ Funds $225, % Current n/a 3.0% Net receivables 2 NZ Funds -$353, % n/a n/a n/a new zealand fixed interest 7.7% New Zealand interest rate swaps exposure NZ Funds $1,099, % n/a n/a n/a Chorus 6.75% 06/04/2020 NZ Funds $455, % Apr-20 BBB 5.7% Mighty River Power 6.9% 11/07/2044 NZ Funds $345, % Jul-19 BB+ 4.7% Genesis Power 6.19% 15/07/2041 NZ Funds $111, % Jul-21 BB+ 4.5% international fixed interest 83.7% Wellington Global Credit Plus Portfolio Wellington Management $4,766, % n/a n/a 5.0% United States government bond futures short exposure NZ Funds -$2,211, % n/a n/a n/a United States government bond futures exposure NZ Funds $1,453, % n/a n/a n/a SPDR Doubleline Total Return Tactical ETF Doubleline $1,158, % n/a n/a 5.9% Semper Midas Fund Class B Semper Capital Management $893, % n/a n/a 2.8% BlackRock US Mortgage Portfolio BlackRock Advisors $701, % n/a n/a 5.0% Verizon Communications 3.5% 01/11/2024 NZ Funds $416, % Nov-24 BBB+ 6.4% Barrick Gold 4.1% 01/05/2023 NZ Funds $304, % May-23 BBB- 8.5% Telstra Corp 4.8% 12/10/2021 NZ Funds $283, % Oct-21 A 5.5% Apple 3.2% 13/05/2025 NZ Funds $252, % May-25 AA+ 5.9% EOG Resources 3.15% 01/04/2025 NZ Funds $249, % Apr-25 A- 6.3% 21st Century Fox America 3% 15/09/2022 NZ Funds $248, % Sep-22 BBB+ 6.0% Union Pacific Railroad 2.695% 12/05/2027 NZ Funds $243, % May-27 AA 2.7% Woodside Finance 4.6% 10/05/2021 NZ Funds $179, % May-21 BBB+ 6.1% BAE Systems Holdings 3.8% 07/10/2024 NZ Funds $172, % Oct-24 BBB+ 6.3% Caltex Australia float 15/09/2037 NZ Funds $78, % Sep-17 BBB- 4.7% foreign currency 1.0% Other currencies NZ Funds $111, % n/a n/a n/a alternative securities 9.7% Harness Investment Fund - Harness Macro Currency Fund Harness Investment $1,151, % n/a n/a n/a total economic exposure 3 $12,001, % 1. The yield calculation represents an estimate of the yield on the Strategy, calculated using the most recent information provided by the external investment managers involved in managing the Strategy, hedged back to New Zealand dollars where appropriate. It is not calculated as at any particular date as different external investment managers provide data at varying dates. As a result, in some instances the yields may lag the date of this Strategy summary. The yield is not the actual return on the Strategy, nor is it a projection or forecast. The Strategy s return could be less than the Strategy s yield. Details of the yield calculation are available on request from NZ Funds. 2. Net receivables include unrealised profit and loss and net receivables/payables. Although full cash backing is not required under the current futures exchange requirements, these figures assume that derivatives contracts are fully backed by cash unless used for leverage. 3. Total economic exposure represents the total economic value of a Strategy, which is the net asset value of the Strategy adjusted for the effect of direct derivative positions taken by the Strategy and indirect derivative positions taken other than via a fund including hedge funds. For more details of the total economic exposure calculations, contact NZ Funds.

4 Inflation Strategy investment objective risk and volatility The objective of the Inflation Strategy is to mitigate the impact of inflation on your investment over the medium and/or long term by investing in income-orientated assets and growth-orientated assets using an active investment management approach. The Strategy is likely to exhibit medium to high risk and volatility characteristics. lifecycle allocation The LifeCycle Portfolio Management process allocates 10% of a member s funds to this Strategy until members reach the age of 46, from when their allocation will gradually increase. investment statement Further information is contained in the Investment Statement for the NZ Funds KiwiSaver Scheme. A copy can be downloaded from The Strategy returned -0.22% in July 2015, taking annual performance to 5.74% 1. Paulson poised to benefit from company takeovers The Strategy has a holding in Paulson International Limited. This fund is managed by John Paulson who founded Paulson & Co in 1994 after an investment banking career with Bear Stearns. Since then he has grown his clients capital by 1,316% 2. He is now one of the most sought after hedge fund managers in the world 3. Paulson s focus is merger arbitrage. Put simply, he is an expert in corporate takeovers. When one company makes a takeover offer for another, it might offer $2.00 per share; however as there is a risk the takeover will not succeed, the share price of the company being acquired might only rise to $1.80. Paulson and his team will quickly evaluate whether they think the takeover will be successful or not. They might consider how the offer is being funded, whether regulatory clearance is needed, and what the major shareholders on both sides think. If the deal is successful in, for example, six months, Paulson s investors would earn $0.20 per share. While this only represents an 11% return, annualised it equates to over 20% p.a. Paulson s clients also stand to benefit from topping bids, where the offer price is increased. While investors risk a loss if the takeover offer is withdrawn, they face very little share market risk, as once a company is under takeover, it tends not to fluctuate with the share market. Paulson International Merger Arbitrage spreads 31 March 2015* Target/Acquirer DIRECTV + /AT&T Time Warner Cable/Comcast Pharmacyclics/ AbbVie Target location U.S. U.S. U.S. Canada Transaction size (bn) $43.1 $41.9 $15.8 $8.0 Offer price $95.00 $ $ $8.00 Target stock price $85.10 $ $ $7.68 Net spread ++ $4.70 $12.50 $5.30 $0.40 Gross return 5.5% 8.3% 2.1% 5.6% Talisman Energy/ Repsol SA Closing date 29 May June May May 2015 Annualised returns 33.7% 33.4% 12.6% 65.4% + DIRECTV spread assumes below stock collar. ++ Net spread adjusts for expected net dividends. This fund is included in this Strategy as, while it invests in equities, the drivers of returns are more interest rate like (the difference between the current price and the bid price) and during periods of high inflation this difference has historically increased resulting in a higher return. 1 Returns are stated after Strategy fees and expenses, but before any advisory fees or investor tax. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future returns. NZ Funds is an active investment manager. Accordingly, any securities discussed above may or may not be held by the Strategy at any given point in time. 2 Paulson Partners LLP cumulative performance from July 1994 to 31 March Returns of individual investors may vary December 2014, Paulson & Co was the 12th largest hedge fund in the world. * Source: Paulson & Co. as at 31 March Performance Inflation Strategy 1 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 2 3 years 2 Since inception 3 Max. decline Volatility 12 months 4 12 months 5 After fees, before tax -0.22% -2.09% -1.51% 5.74% 16.49% 27.14% 33.88% -4.28% 5.66% After fees and tax at the highest PIE tax rate 0.17% -1.50% -1.02% 6.21% 15.49% 25.40% 29.18% n/a n/a 1. After fees, before tax returns are stated after Strategy fees and expenses, but before any advisory fees or investor tax. After fees and tax returns are stated after Strategy fees and expenses and investor tax at the highest Prescribed Investor Rate (PIR). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future returns. 2. Cumulative Strategy returns September Returns should be looked at in conjunction with the level of risk associated with an investment. We use maximum decline as a measure of risk. It represents the largest decline in value experienced during the last 12 months. 5. This is the annualised standard deviation of the Strategy. It is calculated based on the last 12 months daily returns of the Strategy. For more details on the Strategy s Maximum Decline and Volatility please contact NZ Funds.

5 Inflation Strategy / security 4 manager exposure $ exposure % cash and cash equivalents 1.0% market cap (us$b) price / price / earnings 2,3 book 3 payout ratio estimated yield 1 Bank deposits NZ Funds $2,849, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.0% Net receivables 5 NZ Funds -$2,446, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a new zealand fixed interest 8.3% New Zealand Government Inflation Linked Bond 4.5% 15/02/2016 NZ Funds $1,597, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.7% Transpower Finance 4.115% 15/05/2020 NZ Funds $1,526, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.5% New Zealand Government Bond 2% 20/09/2025 NZ Funds $241, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.7% international fixed interest 8.7% Oracle 2.95% 15/05/2025 NZ Funds $878, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 6.1% Sydney Airport Finance 5.125% 22/02/2021 NZ Funds $791, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.8% Woodside Finance 4.6% 10/05/2021 NZ Funds $754, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 6.1% Apple 2.4% 03/05/2023 NZ Funds $678, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.7% Brambles USA 5.35% 01/04/2020 NZ Funds $394, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.6% australasian equities 27.9% Meridian Energy NZ Funds $2,620, % % 6.5% Metlifecare NZ Funds $2,450, % % 1.2% Chorus NZ Funds $2,002, % % 5.5% Auckland International Airport NZ Funds $729, % % 4.1% Restaurant Brands NZ Funds $729, % % 8.0% Port of Tauranga NZ Funds $679, % % 4.5% Spark New Zealand NZ Funds $641, % % 8.5% TrustPower NZ Funds $485, % % 7.7% Vector NZ Funds $463, % % 6.6% Fletcher Building NZ Funds $454, % % 5.9% international equities 21.6% Global Health Care Index Strategy NZ Funds $2,455, % % 4.5% Global Utilities Index Strategy NZ Funds $1,966, % % 7.4% Global Energy Index Strategy NZ Funds $1,426, % % 7.5% Global Consumer Staples Index Strategy NZ Funds $1,189, % % 5.2% Global Materials Index Strategy NZ Funds $833, % % 6.3% Reading International NZ Funds $829, % % 2.7% Global Gold Miners Index Strategy NZ Funds $23, % % 2.7% listed property 11.6% MFA Financial NZ Funds $2,173, % % 13.2% Public Storage 5.875% perpetual NZ Funds $1,416, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 8.6% Public Storage 5.9% perpetual NZ Funds $711, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 8.2% American Homes 4 Rent 5% perpetual NZ Funds $360, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 6.7% foreign currency 29.9% United States Dollar NZ Funds $11,586, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Australian Dollar NZ Funds -$6,203, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Other currencies NZ Funds $133, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a commodities 10.9% Commodities energy futures exposure NZ Funds $4,386, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a alternative securities 14.2% Paulson International Fund Paulson & Co $2,064, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a ISAM Systematic ISAM $1,769, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Harness Investment Fund - Harness Macro Currency Fund Harness Investment $1,054, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Universa Black Swan Protection Protocol-Inflation Universa Investments $428, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Universa Black Swan Protection Protocol Universa Investments $291, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Astenbeck Offshore Commodities Fund II Astenbeck Capital Management $136, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a total economic exposure 6 $54,107, % 1. The yield calculation represents an estimate of the yield on the Strategy, calculated using the most recent information provided by the external investment managers involved in managing the Strategy, hedged back to New Zealand dollars where appropriate. It is not calculated as at any particular date as different external investment managers provide data at varying dates. As a result, in some instances the yields may lag the date of this Strategy summary. The yield is not the actual return on the Strategy, nor is it a projection or forecast. The Strategy s return could be less than the Strategy s yield. Details of the yield calculation are available on request from NZ Funds. 2. Price/Earnings is based on next year s forecast earnings (NPAT) Source: Bloomberg. 3. These ratios are weighted averages derived solely from the allocation to shares. 4. Where a is shown, the asset class reflects the predominant assets in the. The may include other assets including cash. 5. Net receivables include unrealised profit and loss and net receivables/payables. Although full cash backing is not required under the current futures exchange requirements, these figures assume that derivatives contracts are fully backed by cash unless used for leverage. 6. Total economic exposure represents the total economic value of a Strategy, which is the net asset value of the Strategy adjusted for the effect of direct derivative positions taken by the Strategy and indirect derivative positions taken other than via a fund including hedge funds. For more details of the total economic exposure calculations, contact NZ Funds.

6 Growth Strategy investment objective risk and volatility The objective of the Growth Strategy is to grow your investment over the long term by investing in income-orientated assets and growth-orientated assets using an active investment management approach. The Strategy is likely to exhibit high risk and volatility characteristics. lifecycle allocation The LifeCycle Portfolio Management process allocation to this Strategy is 85% of a member s funds until a member reaches 46, from when their allocation will gradually be reduced and allocated to the other Strategies in the NZ Funds KiwiSaver Scheme. investment statement Further information is contained in the Investment Statement for the NZ Funds KiwiSaver Scheme. A copy can be downloaded from The Strategy returned 5.94% in July 2015, taking annual performance to 23.86% 1. Japan the sun is rising Japanese market has experienced strong growth and further appreciation is expected * 26,000 The Strategy has had an overweight position to the Japanese share market over the last 12 months. This has been positive for the Strategy with Japan being one of the best performing developed world share markets. In the year to June 2015 the Japanese market was up over 30%, well above the 7.5% return from the United States or 6% return from Europe. We continue to have a positive view on Japan as reforms are finally having an impact on company profitability. Some of these changes reflect the reforms of Shinzo Abe, Japan s prime minister. Since his election in 2012, he has pushed Japanese companies to return excess cash to shareholders and to improve corporate governance. Other changes have been in the wind for a number of years, but are finally having an impact. After the 1990 property bust, the concept of a job for life was removed although existing staff were still covered. These workers are now reaching retirement and a number of companies are expecting their wage costs to decline substantially. The new breed of workers are also being paid on performance rather than age. In the United States the average company s operating margin (earnings before interest and tax as a percentage of sales) has typically been around 12%. In 2012, Japanese companies achieved a 5% operating margin. This margin has progressively improved and is projected to be around to 7% this year. If Japanese companies can achieve a 10% operating margin (which is around Europe s rate), then the Japanese share market can experience a further 30% increase even if sales remain flat. NIKKEI EQUITY INDEX 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Portfolio increases exposure Target 12,000 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 14 Jun Returns are stated after Portfolio fees and expenses, but before any advisory fees or investor tax. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future returns. NZ Funds is an active investment manager. Accordingly, any securities discussed above may or may not be held by the Portfolio at any given point in time. * Source: Bloomberg, NZ Funds calculations. Performance Growth Strategy 1 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 2 3 years 2 Since inception 3 Max. decline Volatility 12 months 4 12 months 5 After fees, before tax 5.94% 4.89% 5.06% 23.86% 38.35% 74.53% 66.50% -8.94% 12.22% After fees and tax at the highest PIE tax rate 5.18% 4.50% 4.99% 20.80% 33.80% 67.04% 57.11% n/a n/a 1. After fees, before tax returns are stated after Strategy fees and expenses, but before any advisory fees or investor tax. After fees and tax returns are stated after Strategy fees and expenses and investor tax at the highest Prescribed Investor Rate (PIR). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future returns. 2. Cumulative Strategy returns September Returns should be looked at in conjunction with the level of risk associated with an investment. We use maximum decline as a measure of risk. It represents the largest decline in value experienced during the last 12 months. 5. This is the annualised standard deviation of the Strategy. It is calculated based on the last 12 months daily returns of the Strategy. For more details on the Strategy s Maximum Decline and Volatility please contact NZ Funds.

7 Growth Strategy / security 4 manager exposure $ exposure % cash and cash equivalents 1.0% market cap (us$b) price / price / earnings 2,3 book 3 payout ratio estimated yield 1 Bank deposits NZ Funds $10,420, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.0% Net receivables 5 NZ Funds -$10,513, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Westpac 32 day term deposit NZ Funds $748, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.6% new zealand fixed interest 0.6% Dividend and Growth Strategy NZ Funds $416, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a international fixed interest 0.1% Credit default swaps - Market value 6 NZ Funds -$46, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a australasian equities 16.6% The Devon Absolute Fund Devon Funds Management $5,910, % % 4.4% Dividend and Growth Strategy NZ Funds $4,875, % % 6.7% LSV Global Concentrated ACWI Strategy LSV Asset Management $87, % % 7.3% international equities 86.7% Futures index exposure NZ Funds $30,929, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a LSV Global Concentrated ACWI Strategy LSV Asset Management $7,894, % % 8.4% Worldwide High Dividend Yield Value Strategy Tweedy, Browne $7,618, % % 7.2% TT Long / Short Focus Fund TT International $7,010, % n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.8% Global share options NZ Funds $1,910, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a NZ Funds Focused Strategy NZ Funds $969, % n/a 0% 2.7% Dividend and Growth Strategy NZ Funds $502, % % 2.2% foreign currency 46.9% United States Dollar NZ Funds $27,971, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Australian Dollar NZ Funds -$12,743, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Other currencies NZ Funds $2,746, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a European Euro NZ Funds -$1,315, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a alternative securities 24.3% OEI Mac Odey Asset Management $7,002, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a ISAM Systematic ISAM $4,392, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Suvretta Offshore Fund Suvretta Capital Management $3,619, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Universa Black Swan Protection Protocol Universa Investments $913, % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a total economic exposure 7 $115,498, % 1. The yield calculation represents an estimate of the yield on the Strategy, calculated using the most recent information provided by the external investment managers involved in managing the Strategy, hedged back to New Zealand dollars where appropriate. It is not calculated as at any particular date as different external investment managers provide data at varying dates. As a result, in some instances the yields may lag the date of this Strategy summary. The yield is not the actual return on the Strategy, nor is it a projection or forecast. The Strategy s return could be less than the Strategy s yield. Details of the yield calculation are available on request from NZ Funds. 2. Price/Earnings is based on next year s forecast earnings (NPAT) Source: Bloomberg. 3. These ratios are weighted averages derived solely from the allocation to shares. 4. Where a is shown, the asset class reflects the predominant assets in the. The may include other assets including cash. 5. Net receivables include unrealised profit and loss and net receivables/payables. Although full cash backing is not required under the current futures exchange requirements, these figures assume that derivatives contracts are fully backed by cash unless used for leverage. 6. Credit default swaps notional value is currently $6,296, Total economic exposure represents the total economic value of a Strategy, which is the net asset value of the Strategy adjusted for the effect of direct derivative positions taken by the Strategy and indirect derivative positions taken other than via a fund including hedge funds. For more details of the total economic exposure calculations, contact NZ Funds.

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