To Issue of Mathematical Management Methods Applied for Investment- Building Complex under Conditions of Economic Crisis

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1 IOP Conference Series: Maerials Science and Engineering PAPER OPEN ACCESS To Issue of Mahemaical Managemen Mehods Applied for Invesmen- Building Complex under Condiions of Economic Crisis To cie his aricle: V Novikova and O Nikolaeva 2017 IOP Conf. Ser.: Maer. Sci. Eng View he aricle online for updaes and enhancemens. This conen was downloaded from IP address on 14/10/2018 a 00:59

2 To Issue of Mahemaical Managemen Mehods Applied for Invesmen-Building Complex under Condiions of Economic Crisis V Novikova, O Nikolaeva Deparmen Building Organizaion, Don Sae Technical Universiy, pl. Gagarina, 1, Rosov-on-Don , Russia oc41@bk.ru Absrac. In he aricle he auhors consider a cogniive managemen mehod of he invesmen-building complex in he crisis condiions. The facors influencing he choice of an invesmen sraegy are sudied, he basic lines of he aciviy in he field of crisis-managemen from a posiion of mahemaical modelling are defined. The general approach o decisionmaking on invesmen in real asses on he basis of he discree sysems based on he opimum conrol heory is offered. Wih he use of a discree maximum principle he ask in view of he decision is found. The numerical algorihm o define he opimum conrol is formulaed by invesmens. Analyical decisions for he case of consan profiabiliy of he basic means are obained. 1. Inroducion Crisis developmen of a siuaion in he organisaion of building branch is a resul of negaive influence of various exernal and inernal facors of developmen in marke condiions. In he modern world crisis became he consan companion of business, and his phenomenon is defined no only he objecive reasons ouwardly - and inernal poliical and economic characer, bu also he cerain menaliy which has developed in he condiions of permanen expecaion of crisis and insabiliy of key direcions of funcioning of branch and economy as a whole [1,2]. Managemen of a modern building complex assumes managemen of he invesmens simulaing boh developmen of branch, and all economic secor. The scienific subsaniaion of a choice of invesmen model of developmen demands he developed mahemaical apparaus, allowing o coun probable varians of succession of evens, sysemaically and in due ime o reac on siuaion changes, o sofen negaive consequences. The presen work is devoed a choice and a subsaniaion of opimum mahemaical model on he basis of he auhor's analysis and calculaions. 2. The hisorical background The problem of efficien evaluaion of he invesmen cycle and effecive invesmen managemen using mahemaical modeling and forecasing processes have been sudied in many differen scieniss. I is referred o R. Braley, S. Myers. [3], Ju. Brighem [4], B. A. Lagos [5], who sudied problems of economic analysis of invesmen projecs, including mahemaical mehods of analysis. Conen from his work may be used under he erms of he Creaive Commons Aribuion 3.0 licence. Any furher disribuion of his work mus mainain aribuion o he auhor(s) and he ile of he work, journal ciaion and DOI. Published under licence by Ld 1

3 The monograph by Y. V. Kosachev Economic-mahemaical model of efficiency of financial - indusrial srucures [6] gives one of he mos complee descripions of he mahemaical models, analyzing financial componen of he economy of producion and possibiliy of is managemen. The mos imporan informaion on his issue reflecs he aricle he Mahemaical model of opimal conrol of invesmens in real asses by O. V. Pavlov, T. A. Moshkova [7] The aricle O.A. Pobegaylov and O. V. Klyuchnikova "Raionalizaion of sraegic managemen principles as a ool o improve consrucion services company" [8] says abou he creaion of he opimum mechanism of managemen of sraegic invesmen of he company and he need o creae a comprehensive mahemaically correc machine managemen. The difficulies associaed wih objecive analysis ells of he monograph David Hussey "Sraegic managemen. From heory o implemenaion" [9]. Consolidaion of he ideas of leading scieniss in he field of producion managemen is one of he objecives of his sudy. 3. Algorihms of diagnosing and mahemaical modelling of an esimaion of qualiy The menaliy of he modern businessman assumes consan conrol of crisis siuaions and exisence in he condiions of crisis ha leads o occurrence of psychological effec of crisis dependence when any aciviy is reduced o is shor periodic funcioning in he marke, in he condiions of race behind profi. Any business, any projec appears is unpromising in he long-erm relaion as in he condiions of crisis is survival rae promply falls, and i quickly eners ino an unprofiableness phase. I is obvious ha in his condiion any invesmen appears probable only in such projecs which guaranee high speed of realisaion a a minimum of prediced expenses. I is naural ha he quesion of a highgrade pariy of he price, qualiy and modernizaion poenial of he objecs realised hus simply is no necessary [3,10]. I is possible o resul one example brighly illusraing a siuaion: The increasing and grea populariy he ime habiaion - fas rade ypes buildings wih operaional suiabiliy no more han en years, he minimum iniial comfor, from maerials of secondary processing, wood, ceramoplasics ec. Thus he objec is enered in any exising sie of building, wihou any inelligen general layou of building of area, wihou an adequae esimaion of is long operaional suiabiliy. In he scienific environmen appeals o speeding up of mehods of building, by a way reducion of a spadework, examinaions, creaions unbase designs or working ou of echnologies of repeaed operaion of he exising bases [11,12] are in increasing frequency disribued. A all visible progressiveness of similar innovaive workings ou, in a realiy he creaion projec invesmen - he aracive objec possessing high economic efficiency in crisis is realised. Tha, acually, "disposable" i is no acceped o speak similar objec [13, pp ]. In hese condiions he invesor is obliged o choose he opimum scheme of financing of he manufacure, couned by objecive mahemaical mehods. Therefore we consider a problem of opimum conrol of invesmens by means of realisic mahemaical models - managemen of acives in discree saemen. As crierion of managemen of invesmens we use crierion of he pure discree income Auhors apply o a choice of invesmen decisions he opimum conrol heory discree processes [14], As crierion he sum of he discouned profi of he building enerprise for a planning inerval was used. However for pracical economic calculaions he problem decision in a discree kind is more preferable. Thus, he mahemaical model of moneary sreams of he invesmen projec of he building enerprise which is he unique paricipan of he invesmen projec on manufacure of a new kind of producion, is developed aking ino accoun he opimal invesisionno-adminisraive decisions applied in branch. For cleanliness of experimen and aking ino accoun circumsances abou which i was old earlier, economic efficiency of he projec is esimaed as a whole and he financing scheme is no considered [15,16]. Moneary sreams of operaional (indusrial) and invesmen aciviy [17] are considered. As a resul of projec realisaion all made producion compleely is on sale. I is considered ha he moneary sream generaed by he invesmen projec in a curren of one ime period akes place in he end периодав qualiy of crierion of an esimaion of 2

4 economic efficiency of he invesmen projec he pure resuled income defined under he formula is considered: n FCF NPV (1) 0 1 r The planning horizon is defined as he objecive facor: life cycle of he invesmen projec, and subjecive: foresigh of he manager, making he decision. [7]. The free moneary sream of invesmen projec FCF in he end of he period is defined as a difference of moneary sreams from operaional (OCF ) aciviy and invesmen (JCF ): FCF OCF ICF, 0, n (2) For calculaion of deerioraion of he basic means (non-curren asses) of he enerprise he mehod of uniform charge of amorisaion is used: DEP FA (3) where µ - norm of amorisaion, FA - cos of he basic means of he enerprise in he period beginning before new capial invesmens. All basic means of he projec are compleely used for producion. In his case process of indusrial aciviy of he enerprise Is described by producion funcion of Leoneva: PQ ffa (4) where, P Q is he value of projeced sales (revenue) f capial produciviy of fixed asses, characerizing he echnological process used for producion [7]. The economic sense of he profiabiliy of fixed asses is he amoun of operaing cash flow per uni value of fixed asses used in he projec. The profiabiliy of fixed asses depends on he price and cos of producion, reurn on asses, rae of profi ax and ax shield associaed wih he depreciaion. The profiabiliy of fixed asses cash flow according o is economic meaning close o he concep of reurn on invesmen on he cash flows. Naurally, invesmens mus be made one period earlier han he planned growh in producive capaciy necessary o mee fuure projeced sales of finished producs, i.e. implemenaion of consrucion projecs [4,18]. Thus, for invesmen in he iniial period of ime he profiabiliy of fixed asses should no be less han he refund rae capial. I is obvious ha wih he increase of he planning horizon n, he criical value of he reurn decreases, herefore, he longer he planning horizon, he smaller can be criical o profiabiliy of fixed asses in he iniial period. From he equaliy o zero of he erms ROFA r 1 r ROFA (5) i is easy o deermine he period of erminaion of he invesmen: кр r nlog1 r 1 ROFA (6) From economic sense, i follows ha he expression in parenheses is less han 1, so he logarihm of a negaive number and ime of he erminaion of he invesmen is in he range from 0 o n. by analyzing he formula, we can conclude he following: he ime of he erminaion of he invesmen depends on he planning horizon: he greaer he period of ime i is expeced o implemen an invesmen projec, he longer you need o inves in fixed capial. 3

5 4. Conclusions Thus, we propose o use a common approach o invesmen decisions in he consrucion based on he heory of opimal conrol of discree processes. Pracical calculaions have shown he effeciveness of he proposed algorihm for making invesmen decisions ha will help o avoid unnecessary decisions relaed o he selecion of subopimal invesmens. This condiion can be used as a crierion for making a decision abou invesing in he projec under consideraion. From he condiions obained analyical formula for deermining he erminaion period of he invesmen [19,20]. In he managemen of he invesmen complex in he condiions of crisis he funcioning of he regional invesmen-consrucion complexes are characerized by large cycles, respecively, and he risks of losses are large enough ha allows he invesor o require conracors ransparency in he presened projecs, as well as in he hisory of he aciviy in his area. Thus, a he ender, he invesor may have o focus no only on he image indicaors of he proposed projecs, bu also on heir hidden, essenial characerisics, which in urn allows us o manage he invesmen and only profi in he long run. References [1] Pobegailov O 2012 Invesmens in Unsable Economical Sysem Terra Economicus scholar vol pp [2] Boloin S 2002 Sysemaic formulaion of he problems of echnical examinaion of buildings and srucures. Modeling and measuring he process of physical wear Real Esae: economy, managemen (Moscow: ASV) 2 pp [3] Braley R and Myers S 1997 Principles corporae Finance (Moscow: ZAO Olympus Business ) p 1120 [4] Brighem Ju 1998 Convenien o box elder Museum J. Financial managemen (S.-Peersburg: New economic school) p 140 [5] Lagos B A 2003 Opimal conrol in Economics (Moscow: Finances and saisics) p 192 [6] Kosachev Yu V 2004 Economic-mahemaical models he effeciveness of financial and indusrial srucures (Moscow: Logos) p 248 [7] Pavlov O V and Moshkova T A 2010 Mahemaical models of opimal invesmen managemen of real asses Bullein of he Samara sae aerospace Universiy academician S. P. Korolev (naional research Universiy) 3 pp [8] Kliuchnikova O V and Pobegaylov O A 2016 Raionalizaion of Sraegic Managemen Principles as a Tool o Improve a Cons. Comp. Services Proc. Engineer. 150 pp [9] Hussey D 1998 Sraegic Managemen. From heory o implemenaion (Washingon) p 703 [10] Birman G and Schmid A S 2003 Invesmens: Economic analysis of invesmen projecs (Moscow: YUNITI-ANA) p 631 [11] Yaskova N Y, Sergeev I M and Pauline A A 2004 Consrucion in progress and he virual economic growh Economy sroielsva 8 pp [12] Lancaser L G 2002 General mehod of consrucing opimaliy crieria decisions under risk and uncerainy Financial managemen 5 pp [13] Shalobaev S I 2001 Mahemaical mehods and models in Economics, Finance, and business (Moscow: YUNITI-DANA) p 200 [14] Tirelessly P V and Bragina E I 2014 Opimizaion of process of decision-making represenaives of he informal secor of he venure invesmen marke Audi and financ. An. 1 pp [15] Gardiniev L G 1990 Capial repairs of residenial buildings (Moscow: Sroyizda) p 207 [16] Poryvai G A 1990 Building operaions (Moscow: Sroyizda) p 369 [17] Arievich E M 1991 Operaion of residenial buildings (Moscow: Sroiizda) p 511 [18] Roshchina S I, Voronov V and Shuko V Yu 2005 Operaion, repair and mainenance of buildings and srucures (Volgograd: VSU) p 108 [19] Kolmykova T S 2009 Invesmen analysis (Moscow: INFRA-M) p 204 [20] Lakhmekin N I 2012 Invesmen sraegy of he enerprise (Moscow: KNORUS) p 230 4