Weights in CPI/HICP and in seasonally adjusted series

Transcription

1 Statstcs Netherlands Economc and busness statstcs and natonal accounts Government fnance and consumer prce statstcs.o.box HA Den Haag The Netherlands eghts n CI/HIC and n seasonally adjusted seres Jan alschots Remarks: art of the research for ths paper was done when the author was workng as a Seconded Natonal Expert n Eurostat. The vews expressed n ths paper are those of the author and do not necesrly reflect the polces of Eurostat or Statstcs Netherlands. Date: 5 March 203

2 EIGHTS IN CI/HIC AND IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES Summary: In ths paper we dscuss the weghts n a Consumer rce Index (CI). Both the fxed base Laspeyres ndex and chan-lnked Laspeyres-type ndces lke the European Harmonsed Index of Consumer rces (HIC) are dscussed. How are the weghts derved and what data are usually publshed. The central queston s what should be the weghts n the case where seasonally adjusted underlyng seres are aggregated to get a seasonally adjusted headlne ndex seres. In the case of a chan-lnked ndex the optmum weghts dffer from the publshed ones. e dscuss the possbltes to derve the optmum weghts and gve a numercal example. Keywords: CI, HIC, Laspeyres type ndex, weghts, Seasonal adjustment. Introducton Consumer prces often have a dstnct seasonal pattern. The most wdely used response to the seasonal varton of the Consumer rce Index (CI) s to focus on year-on-year nflaton results. Another response s to calculate seasonally adjusted ndces and month-on-month rates of change that reflect recent developments n nflaton whch abstract from regular seasonal effects. Many statstcal nsttutes, ncludng Statstcs Netherlands and Eurostat, do not produce seasonally adjusted seres for the CI or HIC (European Harmonsed Index of Consumer rces) themselves but other organtons may use offcl statstcs to produce them. Bascally two approaches for complng these seres are possble. In a drect approach seasonal adjustment s appled drectly to each seres of nterest, e.g. the headlne overall ndex seres. There s also an ndrect approach. Consderng that the overall CI s the weghted aggregate of a number of underlyng prce ndex seres, t s also possble to apply seasonal adjustment to (a subset of) these underlyng seres and then aggregate them to get a seasonally adjusted overall aggregate ndex seres. Ths paper deals wth ndrect seasonal adjustment methods for the CI. It s attempted to answer the queston whch weghts must be used for aggregatng the seasonally adjusted elementary aggregates n order to get an unbsed seasonally The author wshes to thank Martn Eglsperger (ECB) for valuable comments on an earler draft. All remanng errors are mne.

3 adjusted headlne seres. It s not about the seasonal adjustment of the elementary aggregates tself. In secton 2 we dscuss the alternatve ways to represent a fxed base Laspeyres ndex and the correspondng weghts. Ths leads n secton 3 to a more general representaton of a chan-lnked Laspeyres ndex, whch s used for the HIC. In secton 4 we dscuss the combnng of weghts based on annual consumpton wth monthly ndces and the related problems of seasonaltes. Secton 5 presents the weghts n an annually chaned CI wth a monthly ndex. In secton 6 we gve a short descrpton of the HIC-regulaton on weghts and the weghts that are actually publshed by Eurostat. In secton 7 the drect and ndrect approach for seasonal adjustment are compared. The rest of the paper wll be on the ndrect approach. In secton 8 we dscuss the weghts to be used n a seasonally adjusted fxed base Laspeyres seres and n secton 9 we do the me for a seasonally adjusted chan-lnked seres lke the HIC. In the latter case the publshed weghts are not the best for the seasonally adjusted seres on theoretcal consderatons. It s also derved how corrected weghts for seasonally adjusted seres can be derved from the publshed weghts. In secton 0 we make a comparson of results on the bass of seasonally adjusted HIC seres publshed by the European Central Bank (ECB). In the presented examples the dfferences between the alternatve results are small, but we wll dscuss under what crcumstances these dfferences may be larger. 2. eghts n a Laspeyres type CI 2. The basc Laspeyres formula Ths paper deals wth CIs that are compled as Laspeyres type ndex seres. A Laspeyres prce ndex can be descrbed fully by prces and quanttes of a basket of goods and servces, purchased by consumers. Let and Q be the prce and quantty purchased of good or servce n perod a. The Laspeyres ndex U ab measures the average prce development between perods a and b of a basket of all goods and servces that were purchased n perod a. It can be wrtten as: () U ab b The formula for the overall prce ndex s usually transformed nto a formula that separates the overall ndex nto the prce change of each product (a good or a servce) and related weght ndcators. 2

4 (2) U ab b / b b b wth (3) The weghts represent the expendture shares of products n base perod a. Ths s also the formula normally used n practcal calculatons. The weghts and elementary prce ndces b / are not observed for all ndvdual products but at some elementary product group level. 2.2 A chan lnked representaton of the fxed basket Laspeyres ndex. A Laspeyres ndex coverng a longer perod can also be wrtten as a chan lnked ndex, even f the basket of goods and servces does not change. Each lnk s a Lowe ndex 2 coverng shorter perods. (4) U ab b Ths can be wrtten as (5) U ab ( a+ ), x+ b b Π Π x a x a x ( a+ 2) ( a+ ), a, x, x+ x.. b ( b ) wth (6), a, x x x, a, a x x In ths case a represents the base perod n whch the basket of goods and servces was determned and x the ndex reference perod (perod where the ndex) for the chan-lnk. Note that n ths chan-lnk representaton of the fxed basket Laspeyres ndex the sets of weghts,a,x are calculated n each perod usng the me product quanttes Q but they dffer because of dfferent prce relatves of the products n each perod. Ths rght hand term of equaton 6 shows the process of prce-updatng. The three parts of the expresson on the rght of equaton 6 represent: 2 The Lowe ndex s a more general ndex than the Laspeyres ndex n that the quanttes Q n a Laspeyres ndex represent the consumpton basket n the base perod a, whereas n the Lowe ndex the perod n whch the consumpton basket was measured s not strctly defned. 3

5 - the weghts n the base year at base year prces, - the relatve of the prce of product n perod x compared to base perod a, - the nverse of the prce development of the full basket between the two perods. 2.3 The general case of the chan-lnked Laspeyres ndex A more general case of the Laspeyres formula for a longer term perod s one where the weghts may be adjusted on other grounds than changng prce relatves, namely changng consumpton patterns. The weghts x n equaton (7) represent estmates for the expendture shares of product used n the ndex calculaton n perod x+. b, x+ (7) U Π ab x a x x Note that the subscrpt a has dppeared n the weghts snce the weghts n perod x are no longer based on the expendtures n perod a. Each perod a new estmate for the weghts s entered and used for the calculaton of the ndex n t+. 3. Annual weghts and monthly ndces The consumpton basket n the CI s usually based on a 2-month consumpton perod. Ths s very often, but not necesrly a calendar year. The choce of a 2- month perod s based on the fact that the consumpton pattern s not the me n each month of the year, due to varyng weather condtons, avalablty of seasonal products, holday perods and etcetera. By takng the consumpton n 2 months (or a multple of 2 months) we make sure that all consumpton durng the year s covered by the CI. Ths does not prevent statstcns from makng monthly or quarterly CIs. The producton of monthly fgures may n prncple ntroduce two knds of seasonalty: seasonalty n the consumpton pattern and seasonalty n the prces. The am of the CI s to measure the development of prces and therefore the mpacts of changng consumpton patterns are elmnated to the extent possble. Seasonalty n consumpton patterns s related to seasonal products that are not avalable for purchase by consumers n all months. Ths also means that prces for these products cannot be observed when they are out of season. The HICregulatons 3 have defned two dstnct methods that can be used for the treatment of seasonal products. 3 Detals of the HIC methods can be found n the Commsson Regulaton (EC) no. 330/2009 of 22 Aprl It goes beyond the scope of ths paper to dscuss fully the treatment of seasonal products. 4

6 The frst one s the class confned seasonal weghts method. Ths method s based on seasonal product weghts, wth restrctons that ensure that product weghts add up to fxed aggregate weghts at each subdvson of COICO. The second allowed method s the use of a strct annual weghts ndex where mssng prces are estmated usng ether counter-seasonal estmaton or allseasonal estmaton. hat s mportant here s that n both methods for the treatment of seasonal products n the HIC, the COICO weghts are fxed at each subdvson of COICO. The fact that n prncple there s no seasonal pattern n the consumpton as represented by the weghtng scheme of the CI reflects the general property of the CI that the monthly ndces do not represent the prces for the basket consumed n the reportng month but the prce level of the annual basket n that month. For the rest of ths paper we wll only deal wth the seasonal patterns of prces, not wth the seasonal patterns of consumpton. 4. eghts n a chan-lnked and monthly HIC The HIC s a chan-lnked Laspeyres-type prce-ndex seres 4. For a month m n the perod of 2 months between December t- and December t the ndex s calculated and lnked as n equatons (8) and (9). The ndex reference perod or the base year of the publshed seres s In these equatons m represents the reportng month and D represents December: (8) U 2005( ( 2005) Ths can be wrtten as:,2005,2005,2005 Π A 2 x 2005 ( x+ ) ( x) ( x) ( x) ( ( A ) ( 2005) (9) 2 ( x+ ) A ( U Π 2005 ( (2005) x 2005 ( x) ( A ) (2005) ( x) ( wth ( A ) ( A ) A ) (0) ( x) ( x) ( x) ( x) ( x) 4 The term "Laspeyres-type" follows from the HIC-regulatons of 996. Actually the HIC s a chan-lnked seres of Lowe ndces. The use of the term Lowe ndex was ntroduced wth the ILO-CI-manual n

7 s the December weght for product group n the year x. Ths weght s used from December x tll December x+. Furthermore () (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) s the annual weght for 2005, the ndex reference year for the long tme HIC seres. 5 It was explaned s secton 4 that the monthly ndces are based on annual baskets of goods and servces and therefore Q ( s n fact Q A and equaton (0) may be rewrtten as (2) where (3) (, A A A A ( A ( A A, A ( A A ( A Equaton (2) states that the weght n December of year A for product group can be wrtten as the product of three elements 6 : - the weght n the full year A. A 5 Actually the HIC seres started n 996. In 2006 the results at all levels of publcaton were rescaled to make the average ndces n 2005 equal Note that A s not the average trancton prce n year A but the average of the 2 monthly prce ndces for product group : 2 (5.) /2 A ( m The average expendture share for a product n year A could be wrtten as (5.2) ( m, A 2 2 m ( ( ( However, snce n the CI Q ( Q A we can wrte (5.3), A ( m 2 2 m ( A A ( m 2 QA Q A 2 m 6 ( QA A Q A A

8 - The prce relatve for product group comparng the December prce ndex wth the annual average prce ndex - The nverse of the Laspeyres prce ndex comparng December prces of the full basket of year A wth the annual average prces n year A. 5. The relatonshp between the consumpton basket and the publshed weghts Consumpton patterns change over tme and therefore a regular update of the weghtng schemes of the CI s necesry to guarantee the representatveness of the basket. A decade ago base revsons once every fve years were rather common, but ever more countres have changed to an annual base revson. In the me perod there was a development of the sources used for the weghts. here n the past the Household Budget Survey was the man source for the weghts, the focus has shfted towards weghts based on Natonal Accounts consumpton data. The HIC regulaton on weghts prescrbes that weghts n the HIC n year t are based on an estmate of the consumpton pattern of year t-. hen the weghts for year t are frst needed, n January of year t, Natonal Accounts (N results for the year t- are not yet avalable. Therefore NA-consumpton data for the year t-2 are used. Under normal crcumstances the dstrbuton of expendtures n t-2 s used drectly as an estmate for the expendtures n year t-. 7 Member states are recommended to check the weghts and correct for known sudden changes n the expendtures dstrbuton for year t- before fnalzng the year t- HIC annual weghts. In a fnal step these annual weghts are prce-updated to December t- weghts,.e the expendture shares estmated for year t- are expressed n prces of December of that year t-. 6. Seasonal adjustment; drect and ndrect approach Seasonalty n prces complcates the nterpretaton of short term ndex development. These problems can be solved ether by focussng on year-on-year changes of the ndex, the annual nflaton, or by seasonal adjustment of the seres. The headlne ndex seres s an aggregate of the prce ndces of underlyng seres. Seasonal adjustment of the headlne seres can be performed n two ways, ether by drect seasonal adjustment of the headlne seres or by makng seasonally adjusted seres for a set of underlyng seres and then aggregate them. e wll call the second method the ndrect approach of seasonal adjustment. 7 Several European countres nvestgated n the past years what s a better predctor of the expendtures dstrbuton n year t-. as t ether the expendtures dstrbuton n year t-2 or was t the expendtures dstrbuton n year t-2 prce-updated to the year t-? It came out that the expendture dstrbuton was the better predctor. 7

9 The ndrect approach mght be preferred, snce the seasonal adjustment factors for the separate product groups are easer to dentfy, estmate and nterpret than the seasonal pattern of the headlne seres whch may be composed of varous dfferent seasonal patterns. Another relevant aspect s the fact that changng consumpton patterns n the course of tme may affect the seasonal adjustment factors of the aggregate ndex, even f the seasonal patterns of the prces for the underlyng product groups do not change. Extractng seasonal patterns of underlyng seres whose profles are pronounced and suffcently stable over tme may gve better results than an adjustment for a changng pattern when applyng a drect approach of seasonal adjustment to the headlne seres. For the purpose of nterpretaton, nflaton analyses and forecastng the ndrect approach to seasonal adjustment has the advantage of provdng a set of seasonally adjusted component seres whch perfectly aggregate to the total seres. By contrast, a drectly seasonally adjusted total seres mght devte to a sgnfcant extent from the aggregate of ts seasonally adjusted component seres. It s to the researchers to decde whch of the underlyng seres are to be seasonally adjusted and for whch seres the unadjusted seres can be used. However, the sum of all the mnor seasonaltes n the unadjusted seres used n the aggregaton may add up to some seasonal pattern n the seasonally adjusted aggregate headlne seres. If a drect approach of the seasonal adjustment of the headlne ndex were used all these mnor seasonal effects may also be extracted. e wll not go deeper nto ths choce between the drect or ndrect approach, but for the rest concentrate on how the ndrect approach s to be performed. 7. eghts n a fxed base seasonally adjusted CI-seres e wll now dscuss what the weghts wll be f we make a seasonal adjustment n a number of the underlyng prce ndex seres of product groups. These were the equatons for the unadjusted seres: (4) U wth ( t) a( m. t) ( t) (5) Now f we use seasonally adjusted prce seres nstead of the unadjusted seres, these equatons become: (6) U ( t) a( m. t) ( t) 8

10 wth (7) Q For the complaton of (6) we need both the seasonally adjusted seres and the seasonally adjusted weghts. The seres can be calculated by researchers on the bass of publshed seres, but only the unadjusted weghts are avalable. The queston therefore s under what condtons the weghts and the seasonally adjusted weghts are equal. e can wrte (8) Q As explaned n secton 4 we are dealng only wth seasonal pattern of prces and not wth a seasonal pattern of consumpton. Therefore we can replace the equaton (8) reduces to (9) It s clear that f all However, whether or not are equal to the weghts Q by Q and and are equal. and are equal may depend on the procedure that was used for the calculaton of the seasonally adjusted prce ndex seres and therefore cannot be taken for granted. e may however conclude that n general the weghts. Consderng that both and are equal f and are annual averages of prces we may assume that, n practce, they wll tend to be very close to each other. 8. eghts n a chan lnked seasonally adjusted CI-seres In a chan lnked Laspeyres ndex seres weghts are updated annually and they are determned n a way that dffers from the fxed base Laspeyres case. The formula for the weghts was developed n secton 4 and accordng to equaton (0) 9

11 (20) ( ( ( ( ( s the December weght for product group n the year A. Ths weght s used from December A tll December A+. Agan we are dealng only wth seasonal pattern of prces and not wth a seasonal pattern of consumpton. Therefore after replacng Q ( by Q A the equaton (20) reduces to (2) ( ( ( A A Lkewse the weghts for the seasonally adjusted seres can be wrtten as: (22) ( D, ( D, ( D, A A Combnng (2) and (22) we can wrte (23) ( D, ( ( D, ( A A ( ( D, A A The last term of ths expresson s constant for all product groups and also we know that Q A s equal to Q A and that the sum of the weghts must be. Therefore the expresson (23) can be reduced to (24) and where ( ( (25) ( ( ( The seasonally adjusted December prce prce ( and therefore D, A ) ( s not equal to the non-adjusted,( s not n general equal to (. 9. Calculatng the weghts n practce Havng establshed what the correct weghts should be n an ndrect approach of seasonal adjustment of the HIC, the queston remans how t works out n practce. 0

12 Frst of all the queston s whether all necesry nformaton s publcly avalable. Unfortunately ths s not the case. The weghts ( are publshed by Eurostat. rce ndces ( are also publshed. Eurostat does not perform any seasonal adjustment on any of the seres. Researchers who want to perform seasonal adjustments can perform them by themselves on the bass of the publshed orgnal seres to obtan (. But even then not all necesry data are avalable for researchers that want to calculate the correct weghts and perform the seasonal adjustment. The problem s that the weghts for December of year A are based on the consumpton expendtures of the year A-, prce updated from annual average prces to December prces of ths new basket. On the other hand the publshed prce ndex for December of year A and the publshed average annual ndex for year A were stll calculated on the bass of the basket of year A-2. Therefore the mpact of the prce-updatng process of the new weghts cannot be calculated exactly. 0. A practcal example; comparson of seres In ths secton we wll compare some results of ndrect seasonal adjustment usng dfferent weghts. Statstcs Netherlands does not publsh any seasonally adjusted tme seres for the CI or HIC of the Netherlands. In order to make a comparson we used tme seres of seasonally adjusted HIC results for the euro area. The European Central Bank (ECB) publshes a number of seasonally adjusted seres for the euro area HIC. e extracted these seres from ther database ( Orgnal HIC seres and weghts were extracted from the Eurostat database. e used the followng seres to make test calculatons for the aggregaton. The frst subdvson s n four major groups of products: - Food (ncludng and tobacco), - Non-energy ndustrl goods, - Servces and - Energy. For Energy the ECB does not publsh a seasonally adjusted seres, and therefore we used the orgnal one 8. A summary table wth all data and results s at the end of ths document. In the second subdvson we subdvded Food nto 5 parts to get a total of 8 seres: - Meat, - Fsh and seafood, - Fruts, 8 Accordng to the ECB s DG Statstcs dentfble seasonalty s not found n the euro area HIC seres for energy.

13 - Vegetables and - The other Food subgroups called rocessed food ncludng and tobacco. Results of ths subdvson are n summary table 2. The orgnal weghts as publshed and the corrected weghts after applyng equaton (24) are n tables 3 and 4. To test the possble accuracy of the aggregaton process we frst calculated aggregated tme seres from December 2003 tll December 202 from the publshed orgnal seres. Snce the publshed seres for the euro area are rounded at two decmal fgures (both the ndces and the weghts) there are mnor roundng dfferences n the calculaton. Secondly we replaced the orgnal ndex seres by the seasonally adjusted seres, as publshed by the ECB and we used the me weghts for the unadjusted seres. Fnally we corrected the weghts accordng to equaton (24) and (25) usng the publshed December fgures for the orgnal and seasonally adjusted seres, and agan performed the aggregaton of the seasonally adjusted seres. The results of the calculatons can be summarzed as follows: - The level of detal n the publcaton of the Eurostat data (2 decmal places for ndces and for weghts) allows the recalculaton of the aggregaton process wth rather hgh precson. Snce 2006 the dfference between the publshed and recalculated fgures n table s between and Before 2006 (seres 99600) the ndces were publshed at one decmal place and the dfferences are larger. The results n table 2 are almost the me. - The ECB currently calculates the seasonally adjusted headlne nflaton fgure from aggregaton of the four seres specfed n table usng the orgnal weghts publshed by Eurostat. The dfference between my recalculaton and the ECB publcaton s between and may be attrbutable to the roundng at 5 decmal places of the seasonally adjusted seres. The dfferences n table 2 are bgger than n table - After replacng the weghts by adjusted weghts n the aggregaton the ndces develop a bt faster. hle the dfferences are zero n 2005 they are 0.03 by the end of 202, both n table and 2. It appears that the dfferences between the aggregated seres usng unadjusted weghts and those usng adjusted weghts are very small n ths practcal example. The practcal mportance n ths example s therefore lmted. The queston remans under what condtons the use of adjusted weghts may have a larger mpact. Under what condtons may we expect a hgher mpact? - It depends on the sze of the seasonal factor n December. If December prces are on the long term trend lne the rght hand term of equaton (24) becomes and the weghts are the me. 2

14 - It depends on the dfference between the prce trend of the product wth a large seasonal pattern and the overall nflaton. roduct groups that closely follow the general nflaton trend have hardly any mpact on the aggregated results. In ths respect t s nterestng to see that the ECB does not calculate a seasonally adjusted seres for energy where the prce trend s far above average nflaton. Furthermore the fact that the results were calculated for euro area average fgures may have contrbuted to the small sze of the mpact. The dfferences may be larger for some ndvdual countres but cancel out to a larger extent n the euro area aggregate. Lastly the presented example s an aggregaton of four rather hgh aggregates. It may be that wthn these aggregates certan seasonal effects at lower level and the mpact of the correct weghts have cancelled out. The avalable data dd not allow to test ths hypothess. 3

15 A. Glosry The followng notaton was used n the text and equatons. Varbles Q U rce Quantty eght factor Laspeyres or Lowe ndex Subscrpts A subscrpt denotng product group subscrpt denotng year A ( subscrpt denotng month m of year A ( subscrpt denotng month December of year A a b subscrpt denotng base perod subscrpt denotng reportng perod Superscrpt superscrpt denotng seasonally adjusted fgure Mscellaneous s proportonal to Example: U s the ndex comparng prces n month m of year A wth the average prce 2005( level n the year

16 HIC Index seres, , euro area Orgnal seres; source Eurostat Seasonally adjusted seres; source ECB Own aggregaton on publshed data Comparson of results Orgnal Seasonally adjusted seres seres unadjusted adjusted weghts weghts Food ncludng Servces ndex Food ncludng Servces ndex Chaned Chaned Chaned 2 - and ndustrl excludng All-tems and Energy ndustrl excludng All-tems seres seres seres - column tobacco Energy goods goods) HIC tobacco (not ) goods goods) HIC column Dec 20,88 44,84 07,30 5,89 6,89 2,085 44, ,534 5,7489 6,5028 6,897 6,5026 6,5327 0,007-0,0002 0, Nov 20,48 45,63 07,59 4,70 6,48 20, , ,0720 5,3566 6,3239 6,4880 6,3235 6,3533 0,0080-0,0003 0, Oct 20,04 47,76 07,44 5,0 6,7 20, , ,8804 5,3382 6,4042 6,722 6,4037 6,4343 0,02-0,0005 0, Sep 9,26 48,43 06,75 5,4 6,44 9, , ,7357 5,2327 6,2629 6,4422 6,263 6,2935 0,0022 0,0002 0, Aug 9,00 46,82 03,7 6,2 5,59 9, , ,5665 5,2673 6,0232 5,5949 6,0232 6,0532 0,0049 0,0000 0, Jul 9,05 43,36 03,2 5,9 5,4 9,203 43, ,580 5,0859 5,5667 5,480 5,5668 5,5953 0,0080 0,000 0, Jun 9,49 42,5 06,76 4,78 5,76 9,66 42,500 05,6677 4,8092 5,363 5,7649 5,36 5,3887 0,0049-0,0002 0, May 9,08 44,55 07,07 4,42 5,85 8, , ,6083 4,6024 5,3776 5,8527 5,3778 5,4056 0,0027 0,0002 0, Apr 8,89 46,60 07,02 4,48 6,0 8,488 46, ,5068 4,4698 5,4498 6,042 5,4493 5,4777 0,0042-0,0004 0, Mar 8,8 45,03 06,30 4,09 5,47 8, , ,3758 4,287 5,329 5,4727 5,326 5,603 0,0027-0,0003 0, Feb 8,40 42,78 02,58 3,95 3,99 8, , ,635 4,0647 4,7484 3,9920 4,7480 4,775 0,0020-0,0005 0, Jan 7,66 4,7 02,40 3,42 3,43 7,4930 4,700 05,0772 3,8950 4,4005 3,434 4,4006 4,4267 0,004 0,000 0, Dec 7,8 37,64 06,9 3,85 4,35 7, , ,0650 3,7073 3,9803 4,360 3,9800 4,0048 0,00-0,0003 0, Nov 6,94 37,75 06,42 2,85 3,98 7,246 37, ,9806 3,492 3,8407 3,9834 3,8408 3,8655 0,0034 0,0002 0, Oct 6,43 36,86 06,27 3,4 3,88 6, , ,8327 3,3765 3,6024 3,8789 3,608 3,6260-0,00-0,0006 0, Sep 5,85 36,06 05,48 3,22 3,48 6, , ,630 3,307 3,3542 3,4866 3,3544 3,3784 0,0066 0,0002 0, Aug 5,54 34,86 02,07 4,4 2,65 6, , ,46 3,2326 2,998 2,6523 2,9982 3,0225 0,0023 0,000 0, Jul 5,68 35, 0,60 3,86 2,43 5, ,00 03,8638 3,0547 2,8077 2,4420 2,8076 2,832 0,020-0,000 0, Jun 5,79 33,98 05,40 2,82 3,09 5, , ,4287 2,846 2,732 3,0944 2,7307 2,753 0,0044-0,0005 0,029 20May 5,86 34,69 05,72 2,42 3,0 5,426 34, ,3793 2,5723 2,6595 3,059 2,6595 2,6820 0,0059 0,0000 0, Apr 5,3 35,56 05,63 2,53 3,09 4,930 35, ,2480 2,533 2,5886 3,0997 2,5885 2,60 0,0097-0,000 0, Mar 5,07 33,62 04,86 2,2 2,46 4,686 33, ,037 2,2443 2,690 2,4707 2,688 2,907 0,007-0,0002 0,027 20Feb 4,57 30,34 0,52,9 0,96 4,253 30, ,7963 2,0089,6288 0,964,6282,649 0,004-0,0006 0, Jan 4,0 29,24 0,44,32 0,50 3, , ,9302,7724,4065 0,5060,4065,426 0,0060 0,0000 0, Dec 3,62 25,49 04,95,68,29 3, , ,8655,546 0,9353,2952 0,9347 0,953 0,0052-0,0005 0, Nov 3,3 22,68 05,0 0,80 0,62 3,437 22, ,7966,433 0,5306 0,6257 0,5306 0,5479 0,0057 0,0000 0, Oct 2,66 2,72 04,94,0 0,52 3,0865 2, ,6850,338 0,3062 0,5245 0,3058 0,3226 0,0045-0,0003 0, Sep 2,48 2,02 04,23,06 0,9 3,049 2, ,6222,375 0,348 0,924 0,349 0,54 0,0024 0,000 0, Aug 2,54 20,66 02,05,90 09,85 3, , ,7299,0403 0, ,854 0,0955 0,6 0,004-0,0003 0, Jul 2,7 20,83 0,62,59 09,63 2, , ,6954 0,832 09, , , ,9745 0,0088-0,0006 0, Jun 2,78 20,77 04,42 0,64 0,0 2, , ,5952 0,662 09,7995 0,097 09, ,844 0,0097-0,0006 0, May 2,65 2,23 04,63 0,43 0,0 2,268 2, ,445 0,568 09,7054 0,049 09, ,7206 0,0049-0,0006 0,05 200Apr 2,78 20,55 04,55 0,29 09,98 2, , ,3285 0, , ,984 09, ,552 0,004 0,000 0, Mar 2,4 8,2 03,97 0,33 09,53 2,0287 8,200 03,3282 0, ,395 09, ,393 09,3342 0,0083-0,0002 0, Feb 2,02 5,26 0,45 0,2 08,33,7365 5, ,370 0, ,889 08,335 08,888 08,8953 0,005-0,000 0, Jan,94 5,4 00,94 09,69 07,99,73 5,400 03,46 0,46 08, , , ,827 0,0095-0,0005 0, Dec,24 3,06 04,2 0,27 08,88,4536 3, ,96 0,252 08, , , ,5690 0,032-0,000 0, Nov, 3,68 04,2 09,36 08,54,4055 3, ,066 09, , , , ,4995 0,023 0,000 0, Oct 0,84 2,4 04,06 09,62 08,4,259 2,400 02, ,867 08, ,49 08, ,2685 0,009 0,0000 0, column 0

17 Summary table : HIC Index seres, , euro area Orgnal seres; source Eurostat Seasonally adjusted seres; source ECB Own aggregaton on publshed data Comparson of results Orgnal Seasonally adjusted seres seres unadjusted adjusted weghts weghts Food ncludng Servces ndex Food ncludng Servces ndex Chaned Chaned Chaned and ndustrl excludng All-tems and Energy ndustrl excludng All-tems seres seres seres column column tobacco Energy goods goods) HIC tobacco (not ) goods goods) HIC Dec 20,88 44,84 07,30 5,89 6,89 2,085 44, ,534 5,7489 6,5028 6,897 6,5026 6,5327 0,007-0,0002 0, Nov 20,48 45,63 07,59 4,70 6,48 20, , ,0720 5,3566 6,3239 6,4880 6,3235 6,3533 0,0080-0,0003 0, Oct 20,04 47,76 07,44 5,0 6,7 20, , ,8804 5,3382 6,4042 6,722 6,4037 6,4343 0,02-0,0005 0, Sep 9,26 48,43 06,75 5,4 6,44 9, , ,7357 5,2327 6,2629 6,4422 6,263 6,2935 0,0022 0,0002 0, Aug 9,00 46,82 03,7 6,2 5,59 9, , ,5665 5,2673 6,0232 5,5949 6,0232 6,0532 0,0049 0,0000 0, Jul 9,05 43,36 03,2 5,9 5,4 9,203 43, ,580 5,0859 5,5667 5,480 5,5668 5,5953 0,0080 0,000 0, Jun 9,49 42,5 06,76 4,78 5,76 9,66 42,500 05,6677 4,8092 5,363 5,7649 5,36 5,3887 0,0049-0,0002 0, May 9,08 44,55 07,07 4,42 5,85 8, , ,6083 4,6024 5,3776 5,8527 5,3778 5,4056 0,0027 0,0002 0, Apr 8,89 46,60 07,02 4,48 6,0 8,488 46, ,5068 4,4698 5,4498 6,042 5,4493 5,4777 0,0042-0,0004 0, Mar 8,8 45,03 06,30 4,09 5,47 8, , ,3758 4,287 5,329 5,4727 5,326 5,603 0,0027-0,0003 0, Feb 8,40 42,78 02,58 3,95 3,99 8, , ,635 4,0647 4,7484 3,9920 4,7480 4,775 0,0020-0,0005 0, Jan 7,66 4,7 02,40 3,42 3,43 7,4930 4,700 05,0772 3,8950 4,4005 3,434 4,4006 4,4267 0,004 0,000 0, Dec 7,8 37,64 06,9 3,85 4,35 7, , ,0650 3,7073 3,9803 4,360 3,9800 4,0048 0,00-0,0003 0, Nov 6,94 37,75 06,42 2,85 3,98 7,246 37, ,9806 3,492 3,8407 3,9834 3,8408 3,8655 0,0034 0,0002 0, Oct 6,43 36,86 06,27 3,4 3,88 6, , ,8327 3,3765 3,6024 3,8789 3,608 3,6260-0,00-0,0006 0, Sep 5,85 36,06 05,48 3,22 3,48 6, , ,630 3,307 3,3542 3,4866 3,3544 3,3784 0,0066 0,0002 0, Aug 5,54 34,86 02,07 4,4 2,65 6, , ,46 3,2326 2,998 2,6523 2,9982 3,0225 0,0023 0,000 0, Jul 5,68 35, 0,60 3,86 2,43 5, ,00 03,8638 3,0547 2,8077 2,4420 2,8076 2,832 0,020-0,000 0, Jun 5,79 33,98 05,40 2,82 3,09 5, , ,4287 2,846 2,732 3,0944 2,7307 2,753 0,0044-0,0005 0,029 20May 5,86 34,69 05,72 2,42 3,0 5,426 34, ,3793 2,5723 2,6595 3,059 2,6595 2,6820 0,0059 0,0000 0, Apr 5,3 35,56 05,63 2,53 3,09 4,930 35, ,2480 2,533 2,5886 3,0997 2,5885 2,60 0,0097-0,000 0, Mar 5,07 33,62 04,86 2,2 2,46 4,686 33, ,037 2,2443 2,690 2,4707 2,688 2,907 0,007-0,0002 0,027 20Feb 4,57 30,34 0,52,9 0,96 4,253 30, ,7963 2,0089,6288 0,964,6282,649 0,004-0,0006 0, Jan 4,0 29,24 0,44,32 0,50 3, , ,9302,7724,4065 0,5060,4065,426 0,0060 0,0000 0, Dec 3,62 25,49 04,95,68,29 3, , ,8655,546 0,9353,2952 0,9347 0,953 0,0052-0,0005 0, Nov 3,3 22,68 05,0 0,80 0,62 3,437 22, ,7966,433 0,5306 0,6257 0,5306 0,5479 0,0057 0,0000 0, Oct 2,66 2,72 04,94,0 0,52 3,0865 2, ,6850,338 0,3062 0,5245 0,3058 0,3226 0,0045-0,0003 0, Sep 2,48 2,02 04,23,06 0,9 3,049 2, ,6222,375 0,348 0,924 0,349 0,54 0,0024 0,000 0, Aug 2,54 20,66 02,05,90 09,85 3, , ,7299,0403 0, ,854 0,0955 0,6 0,004-0,0003 0, Jul 2,7 20,83 0,62,59 09,63 2, , ,6954 0,832 09, , , ,9745 0,0088-0,0006 0, Jun 2,78 20,77 04,42 0,64 0,0 2, , ,5952 0,662 09,7995 0,097 09, ,844 0,0097-0,0006 0, May 2,65 2,23 04,63 0,43 0,0 2,268 2, ,445 0,568 09,7054 0,049 09, ,7206 0,0049-0,0006 0,05 200Apr 2,78 20,55 04,55 0,29 09,98 2, , ,3285 0, , ,984 09, ,552 0,004 0,000 0, Mar 2,4 8,2 03,97 0,33 09,53 2,0287 8,200 03,3282 0, ,395 09, ,393 09,3342 0,0083-0,0002 0, Feb 2,02 5,26 0,45 0,2 08,33,7365 5, ,370 0, ,889 08,335 08,888 08,8953 0,005-0,000 0, Jan,94 5,4 00,94 09,69 07,99,73 5,400 03,46 0,46 08, , , ,827 0,0095-0,0005 0, Dec,24 3,06 04,2 0,27 08,88,4536 3, ,96 0,252 08, , , ,5690 0,032-0,000 0, Nov, 3,68 04,2 09,36 08,54,4055 3, ,066 09, , , , ,4995 0,023 0,000 0, Oct 0,84 2,4 04,06 09,62 08,4,259 2,400 02, ,867 08, ,49 08, ,2685 0,009 0,0000 0, column 20

18 Summary table : HIC Index seres, , euro area Orgnal seres; source Eurostat Seasonally adjusted seres; source ECB Own aggregaton on publshed data Comparson of results Orgnal Seasonally adjusted seres seres unadjusted adjusted weghts weghts Food ncludng Servces ndex Food ncludng Servces ndex Chaned Chaned Chaned and ndustrl excludng All-tems and Energy ndustrl excludng All-tems seres seres seres column column tobacco Energy goods goods) HIC tobacco (not ) goods goods) HIC Sep 0,82 2,33 03,29 09,56 08,6,3535 2, , , ,854 08,704 08,850 08,976 0,004-0,0004 0, Aug 0,82 3,75 0,75 0,33 08,4,2778 3, ,780 09,52 08, ,432 08,330 08,3425 0,0032-0,0003 0, Jul,25,74 0,22 0,09 07,77,3007, ,29 09, , , , ,0743 0,0043 0,000 0, Jun,73 3,74 03,82 09,2 08,48,4353 3, , , , ,497 08, ,220 0,07-0,0002 0, May,76 0,97 04,2 09,06 08,27,3357 0, , ,595 07, , , ,95 0,0007 0,0002 0, Apr,85 0,53 04,09 09,0 08,2,4794 0, ,023 09,044 07, ,268 07, ,8393 0,0068-0,0006 0,0 2009Mar,9 0,26 03,42 08,60 07,82,5928 0, , ,737 07, , , ,6797 0,0072 0,0002 0, Feb 2,03,57 0,57 08,66 07,42,7922, , ,794 07, , , ,8746 0,0045-0,0005 0, Jan 2,0 0,98 0,05 08,3 06,98,7352 0, ,960 08, , , , ,6980 0,0072-0,0005 0, Dec,43,0 03,77 08,53 07,88,646,000 02, ,395 07, , , ,5905 0,0065 0,0000 0, Nov,27 6,48 03,94 07,62 08,02,5902 6, , , ,999 08, ,998 08,0049 0,0093-0,000 0, Oct,29 22,54 03,7 07,73 08,55, , , , , , , ,459 0,0057 0,000 0, Sep,0 26,6 02,8 07,67 08,52, ,600 02, ,727 08, ,528 08, ,602 0,008-0,0002 0, Aug 0,90 26,6 0,4 08,38 08,32, ,600 02, , , , , ,5098 0,0057-0,0003 0, Jul,20 30,53 00,7 08,07 08,47,230 30, , , ,773 08, ,768 08,7332 0,0084-0,0004 0, Jun 0,99 28,83 03,5 07,2 08,64 0, , ,439 07,444 08,370 08, , ,3853 0,0045-0,0002 0, May 0,80 25,5 03,32 06,82 08,23 0,353 25,500 02,309 06, , , , ,8768 0,0068 0,0000 0, Apr 0,34 2,9 03,25 06,39 07,55 09,9728 2,900 02,254 06, ,98 07, ,97 07,2045 0,0097 0,0000 0, Mar 09,80 9,98 02,6 06,55 07,2 09,5663 9, , , ,046 07,256 07,047 07,7 0,0056 0,000 0, Feb 09,34 7,27 00,88 06,2 06,7 09,297 7, ,875 06,603 06, ,737 06, ,5579 0,0037-0,0005 0, Jan 09,09 7,3 00,56 05,60 05,80 08,7959 7,300 02,637 05, , ,802 06, ,3939 0,002 0,0000 0, Dec 07,92 5,24 02,90 05,80 06,20 08,00 5, , , , , ,932 05,948 0,0072-0,0002 0, Nov 07,34 5,64 03,0 04,87 05,78 07,6792 5,6400 0, , , , , ,7858 0,0060-0,0005 0, Oct 06,58,80 02,70 04,97 05,22 07,027,8000 0, ,230 05,476 05, ,476 05,557 0,0042 0,000 0, Sep 05,56,4 0,90 04,95 04,7 06,0453,400 0, , , ,725 04, ,7946 0,0025-0,0003 0, Aug 05,05 0,46 00,39 05,52 04,3 05,4289 0,4600 0, ,799 04, , , ,556 0,035 0,0003 0, Jul 04,80,44 00,22 05,36 04,25 04,886,4400 0, , , , , ,4558-0,000 0,000 0, Jun 04,89 0,93 02,34 04,48 04,50 04,577 0,9300 0, ,507 04, , , ,2385 0,0042-0,000 0, May 04,77 0,35 02,57 04,25 04,40 04,3256 0,3500 0, ,378 04,045 04, ,045 04,0469 0,0024 0,0000 0, Apr 04,66 09,34 02,44 04,03 04,5 04, ,3400 0, , ,834 04,570 03,835 03,887 0,0070 0,000 0, Mar 03,98 07,85 0,7 03,64 03,50 03, ,8500 0,479 03,767 03, ,504 03, ,437 0,004-0,0005 0, Feb 03,9 06,24 00,06 03,59 02,8 03,73 06,2400 0, ,625 03,84 02,882 03,87 03,857 0,0082 0,0003 0, Jan 04,0 05,90 99,84 03,05 02,5 03, ,9000 0, , ,027 02,588 03,028 03,0257 0,0088 0,0000 0, Dec 03,46 05,53 0,87 03,8 03,04 03,654 05,5300 0, , , , , ,7945 0,0060 0,0003 0, Nov 03,25 05,40 0,9 02,30 02,64 03, , ,965 02,872 02, , , ,666 0,0070 0,0002 0, Oct 02,94 05,94 0,63 02,44 02,60 03,36 05, , , , , , ,5674 0,0069-0,0002 0, Sep 02,77 07,87 00,90 02,42 02,52 03, , , , , ,562 02, ,606-0,0038-0,0002 0, Aug 02,50,49 99,42 02,86 02,52 02,8650, , ,870 02, ,563 02, ,727-0,0037 0,0000 0, Jul 02,48,43 99,34 02,7 02,43 02,4969, , , , ,42 02, ,5942-0,0089 0,0003 0, column 20

19 Summary table : HIC Index seres, , euro area Orgnal seres; source Eurostat Seasonally adjusted seres; source ECB Own aggregaton on publshed data Comparson of results Orgnal Seasonally adjusted seres seres unadjusted adjusted weghts weghts Food ncludng Servces ndex Food ncludng Servces ndex Chaned Chaned Chaned and ndustrl excludng All-tems and Energy ndustrl excludng All-tems seres seres seres column column tobacco Energy goods goods) HIC tobacco (not ) goods goods) HIC Jun 02,46 09,94 0,33 0,87 02,56 02,074 09, ,6484 0, ,286 02,552 02,283 02,2850-0,0079-0,0002 0, May 02,33 0,02 0,52 0,58 02,48 0,878 0, ,5550 0, ,220 02, ,223 02,258-0,0056 0,0003 0, Apr 0,90 08,9 0,34 0,49 02,20 0, ,900 00,4500 0,525 0, ,983 0,8660 0,869-0,007 0,0000 0, Mar 0,68 05,94 00,49 0,25 0,53 0, , ,323 0,3660 0,4859 0,5267 0,486 0,4886-0,0033 0,0002 0, Feb 0,5 05,44 98,95 0,7 00,95 0, , ,209 0,820 0, ,947 0,3020 0,3044-0,0083-0,0002 0, Jan 0,22 05,00 98,96 00,72 00,66 00, , ,2338 0,009 0,305 00,6652 0,302 0,32 0,0052-0,0002 0, Dec 00,7 02,52 00,98 0,2 0,0 00, , , , ,8970 0,264 00, ,8982 0,0264-0,000 0, Nov 00,2 03,27 0, 00,23 00,76 00, , , , ,809 00, , ,805 0,050 0,0003 0, Oct 99,96 06,48 00,82 00,37 0,02 00,383 06, ,333 00,656 00, , , ,9665-0,0292-0,0004 0, Sep 99,88 06,23 00,08 00,43 00,76 00,320 06, , , , , , ,8397-0,0092 0,0000 0, Aug 99,65 03,0 98,82 00,90 00,25 00,00 03,000 99,988 00, , , , ,3978-0,0256 0,0002 0, Jul 99,83 0,77 98,74 00,6 00,00 99,8270 0, , ,05 00,256 99, ,259 00,26-0,0057 0,0002 0, Jun 00,28 99,05 00,59 99,87 00,08 99,904 99, , , , , , ,8338 0,042-0,0004-0, May 00,37 97,49 00,82 99,75 00,00 99, , , , , , , ,6567-0,008 0,0003-0, Apr 00,08 98,09 00,68 99,35 99,75 99, , , , , , , ,4656 0,0322 0,0000-0, Mar 00,06 95,87 99,94 99,39 99,32 99, , ,847 99, ,336 99,364 99,336 99,3353 0,044 0,0000-0, Feb 99,67 93,70 98,68 99,20 98,65 99, , , ,224 98, , , ,9530-0,0240 0,0002-0, Jan 99,3 92,44 98,74 98,77 98,3 99,047 92, , , ,795 98, ,79 98,768-0,0274-0,0004-0, Dec 99,06 92,8 00,59 99,05 98,90 99, ,800 99, , , , ,70 98,6988-0,07 0,000-0, Nov 98,09 93,87 00,73 98,7 98,48 98, , , , ,593 98,534 98,592 98,5884 0,054 0,0000-0, Oct 98,08 95,00 00,52 98,24 98,56 98,56 95, ,875 98, , , , ,592 0,0384-0,0004-0, Sep 98,3 92,36 99,90 98,30 98,22 98, , , , , ,206 98, ,2896-0,039 0,0000-0, Aug 98,25 92,50 98,83 98,69 98,05 98, , , ,06 98, , , ,2363 0,0325 0,0002-0, Jul 98,76 9, 98,72 98,39 97,88 98,7398 9,00 99, ,843 97, , , ,987 0,075 0,0002-0, Jun 99,5 90,57 00,34 97,68 98,05 98, , , , , ,63 97,877 97,8686 0,0663-0,0004-0, May 99,09 9,25 00,48 97,33 98,05 98,5722 9, , ,463 97, , , ,7492 0,037-0,000-0, Apr 98,79 89,07 00,35 97,25 97,72 98, , , , , , , ,4347 0,045 0,0002-0, Mar 98,58 88,3 99,58 96,96 97,29 98, ,300 99, , ,225 97, ,22 97,274-0,0334-0,0004-0, Feb 97,82 86,97 98,49 96,9 96,62 97, , , ,92 96, , , ,9349 0,0352-0,0004-0, Jan 97,88 87,02 98,27 96,43 96,45 97,736 87, , , , , , ,7933-0,0435-0,0003-0, Dec 97,6 86,2 99,83 96,44 96,62 97, ,200 99, ,35 96,556 96, ,560 96,54 0,0453 0,0004-0, column 20 3

20 Summary table 2: HIC Index seres, , euro area; fve food-categores Orgnal seres; source Eurostat Seasonally adjusted seres; source ECB Own aggregaton on publshed data Comparson of results Orgnal Seasonally adjusted seres seres unadjusted adjusted weghts weghts rocesse d food ncludng Servces ndex rocessed food ncludng Servces ndex Chaned Chaned Chaned Fsh and Vegetables and ndustrl excludng All-tems Fsh and Vege- and Energy ndustrl excludng All-tems seres seres seres column column Meat seafood Frut tobacco Energy goods goods) HIC Meat seafood Frut tables tobacco (not ) goods goods) HIC Dec 9,4 8,96 8,34 8,29 22,08 44,84 07,30 5,89 6,89 9,233 8,664 20,0536 9,862 22,839 44, ,534 5,7489 6,5028 6,8952 6,4976 6,5272 0,0052-0,0052 0, Nov 8,99 8,49 9,28 4,64 2,97 45,63 07,59 4,70 6,48 8,8933 8, ,3864 7,490 2, , ,0720 5,3566 6,3239 6,4862 6,3259 6,3552 0,0062 0,002 0, Oct 8,25 8,63 8,77 3,52 2,68 47,76 07,44 5,0 6,7 8,42 8, ,009 8,397 2, , ,8804 5,3382 6,4042 6,720 6,4049 6,4352 0,00 0,0008 0, Sep 7,56 9,2 6,8,2 2,4 48,43 06,75 5,4 6,44 7,5303 8,6628 8,8994 6,2845 2,294 48, ,7357 5,2327 6,2629 6,440 6,2644 6,2943 0,000 0,005 0, Aug 7,03 8,66 6,78 0, 2,00 46,82 03,7 6,2 5,59 6,9629 8,3539 8,2053 5,7855 2,32 46, ,5665 5,2673 6,0232 5,594 6,022 6,0506 0,004-0,0020 0, Jul 6,65 8,7 8,74,33 20,88 43,36 03,2 5,9 5,4 6,7680 8,4225 6,5307 4, ,929 43, ,580 5,0859 5,5667 5,472 5,5660 5,5933 0,0072-0,0007 0, Jun 6,42 7,5 24,28 4,2 20,79 42,5 06,76 4,78 5,76 6,6309 7,9902 7,726 4, , ,500 05,6677 4,8092 5,363 5,7646 5,3532 5,3798 0,0046-0,008 0, May 6,3 7,98 6,82 5,36 20,74 44,55 07,07 4,42 5,85 6,4045 8,2963 3,4924 2,36 20, , ,6083 4,6024 5,3776 5,8523 5,3757 5,408 0,0023-0,009 0, Apr 6,05 7,74 3,85 7,40 20,59 46,60 07,02 4,48 6,0 6,449 7,8822 3,644 2, , , ,5068 4,4698 5,4498 6,044 5,4456 5,4724 0,0044-0,0042 0, Mar 5,9 7,28 2,5 9,97 20,34 45,03 06,30 4,09 5,47 6,0059 7,4766 3,5034 3,84 20,299 45, ,3758 4,287 5,329 5,472 5,357 5,62 0,002 0,0029 0, Feb 5,84 7,05 0,96 8,84 20,04 42,78 02,58 3,95 3,99 5,8085 7,3603 2,6088 3,539 9, , ,635 4,0647 4,7484 3,9927 4,7458 4,774 0,0027-0,0026 0, Jan 5,56 8,05 0,48 2,37 9,70 4,7 02,40 3,42 3,43 5,4628 7,0853 2, ,8632 9,630 4,700 05,0772 3,8950 4,4005 3,430 4,3985 4,4228 0,000-0,0020 0, Dec 5,34 7,45,60 09,72 9,26 37,64 06,9 3,85 4,35 5,528 7,242 3,2487 0,797 9, , ,0650 3,7073 3,9803 4,3606 3,9753 3,9985 0,006-0,0050 0,082 20Nov 4,8 6,46 2,05 09,03 9,6 37,75 06,42 2,85 3,98 4,787 6,7625 3,925,776 9,687 37, ,9806 3,492 3,8407 3,9824 3,8439 3,8672 0,0024 0,0032 0, Oct 4,64 6,46 2,00 05,79 8,82 36,86 06,27 3,4 3,88 4,5269 6,625 3,3276 0,0472 8, , ,8327 3,3765 3,6024 3,8789 3,6044 3,6272-0,00 0,0020 0, Sep 4,34 6,6 09,73 05,38 8,23 36,06 05,48 3,22 3,48 4,2924 6,032 2,2240 0,93 8, , ,630 3,307 3,3542 3,4856 3,3554 3,3779 0,0056 0,00 0, Aug 4,00 5,8 0,22 05,47 7,85 34,86 02,07 4,4 2,65 3,9205 5,5037,4874 0,8334 7, , ,46 3,2326 2,998 2,6525 2,9974 3,0203 0,0025-0,0007 0, Jul 3,55 4,85 4,0 08,66 7,47 35, 0,60 3,86 2,43 3,6688 5,0998,766,2737 7,584 35,00 03,8638 3,0547 2,8077 2,440 2,8085 2,839 0,00 0,0008 0, Jun 3,00 4,4 9,22,33 6,99 33,98 05,40 2,82 3,09 3,2088 4,880 2,5647,5375 6, , ,4287 2,846 2,732 3,0929 2,7278 2,7494 0,0029-0,0034 0,082 20May 2,73 4,29 8,37 5,25 6,77 34,69 05,72 2,42 3,0 2,8357 4,677 5,005 2,285 6, , ,3793 2,5723 2,6595 3,045 2,6545 2,6766 0,0045-0,0050 0,07 20Apr 2,32 3,75 4,68 6,66 6,25 35,56 05,63 2,53 3,09 2,4365 3,896 4,4243 2,279 6,237 35, ,2480 2,533 2,5886 3,0998 2,5803 2,6025 0,0098-0,0084 0,038 20Mar,98 3,50 4,74 7,85 5,8 33,62 04,86 2,2 2,46 2,046 3,6732 5,7488 2,0490 5, , ,037 2,2443 2,690 2,4692 2,676 2,895 0,0092-0,004 0, Feb,6 2,56 2,64 8,53 5,33 30,34 0,52,9 0,96,5900 2,7760 4,270 3,402 5, , ,7963 2,0089,6288 0,9642,683,6392 0,0042-0,006 0,004 20Jan,40 3,24 0,09 6,96 5,02 29,24 0,44,32 0,50,2998 2,79 2,0830 4,3395 4, , ,9302,7724,4065 0,5045,405,422 0,0045-0,0050 0, Dec,29 2,46 0,2 5,05 4,59 25,49 04,95,68,29,43 2,067,882 6,3288 4, , ,8655,546 0,9353,2938 0,9320 0,9507 0,0038-0,0033 0, Nov,9,50 0,3 2,3 4,27 22,68 05,0 0,80 0,62,0898,85,3734 4,9786 4, , ,7966,433 0,5306 0,624 0,533 0,5505 0,004 0,0025 0, Oct,08,29 09,62 09,83 3,94 2,72 04,94,0 0,52 0,9554,588,0348 4,220 4,004 2, ,6850,338 0,3062 0,5235 0,35 0,3283 0,0035 0,0053 0, Sep 0,88,50 08,84 0,24 3,72 2,02 04,23,06 0,9 0,8055,079,58 5,588 3,8603 2, ,6222,375 0,348 0,922 0,380 0,548 0,0022 0,0032 0, Aug 0,87,3,37 08,95 3,75 20,66 02,05,90 09,85 0,780,059 2,566 4,347 3,833 20, ,7299,0403 0, ,8508 0,0970 0,35 0,0008 0,002 0, Jul 0,65 0,42 4,64,3 3,56 20,83 0,62,59 09,63 0,7559 0,6645 2,27 3,4673 3,600 20, ,6954 0,832 09, , , ,9748 0,0084-0,0004 0, Jun 0,44 0,07 7,45,27 3,47 20,77 04,42 0,64 0,0 0,6455 0,529,846,3774 3, , ,5952 0,662 09,7995 0,095 09, ,83 0,0095-0,008 0, May 0,46 09,59 3,25 5,9 3,20 2,23 04,63 0,43 0,0 0,5762 0,039 0,088,8746 3,533 2, ,445 0,568 09,7054 0,046 09,70 09,766 0,0046-0,0043 0,02 200Apr 0,43 09,99 09, 20,66 3,07 20,55 04,55 0,29 09,98 0,556 0,556 08,8380 6,0964 2, , ,3285 0, , , ,526 09,5420 0,0029-0,002 0, Mar 0,7 09,56 06,6 9,37 3,0 8,2 03,97 0,33 09,53 0,320 09,704 07,509 4,2596 2,8930 8,200 03,3282 0, ,395 09,537 09,356 09,3302 0,007-0,0039 0, Feb 0,37 09,2 05,54 5,5 3,02 5,26 0,45 0,2 08,33 0, , ,9682 0,597 2,94 5, ,370 0, ,889 08, , ,8835 0,0038-0,0 0, Jan 0,4 0,23 07,2 2,6 3,0 5,4 00,94 09,69 07,99 0,303 09, , ,5250 2,9297 5,400 03,46 0,46 08, , ,796 08,8093 0,0083-0,0032 0, Dec 0,55 09,44 07,00 04,79 2,89 3,06 04,2 0,27 08,88 0, ,034 08, ,975 2,987 3, ,96 0,252 08, , , ,5665 0,035-0,005 0, Nov 0,5 08,73 06,65 04,75 2,79 3,68 04,2 09,36 08,54 0,403 09, ,063 07,362 2,8298 3, ,066 09, , ,558 08, ,4987 0,08 0,0004 0, Oct 0,6 08,55 05,84 03,55 2,57 2,4 04,06 09,62 08,4 0,462 08, , ,4385 2,6508 2,400 02, ,867 08, ,48 08, ,279 0,008 0,0045 0, column 20 4

21 Summary table 2: HIC Index seres, , euro area; fve food-categores Orgnal seres; source Eurostat Seasonally adjusted seres; source ECB Own aggregaton on publshed data Comparson of results Orgnal Seasonally adjusted seres seres unadjusted adjusted weghts weghts rocesse d food ncludng Servces ndex rocessed food ncludng Servces ndex Chaned Chaned Chaned Fsh and Vegetables and ndustrl excludng All-tems Fsh and Vege- and Energy ndustrl excludng All-tems seres seres seres column column Meat seafood Frut tobacco Energy goods goods) HIC Meat seafood Frut tables tobacco (not ) goods goods) HIC Sep 0,76 09,43 05,26 02,58 2,60 2,33 03,29 09,56 08,6 0, ,054 07,326 06,9894 2,7474 2, , , ,854 08,70 08,848 08,962 0,00-0,0006 0, Aug 0,8 09,36 05,6 02,04 2,67 3,75 0,75 0,33 08,4 0,7 09,079 06, ,879 2,7485 3, ,780 09,52 08, ,427 08, ,340 0,0027-0,002 0, Jul 0,60 08,53 09,79 05,55 2,60,74 0,22 0,09 07,77 0, , ,462 07,4925 2,6378, ,29 09, , , , ,074 0,0050 0,00 0, Jun 0,50 08,38 4,35 08,99 2,5 3,74 03,82 09,2 08,48 0, , ,488 08,9858 2,5224 3, , , , ,495 08, ,220 0,05 0,0005 0, May 0,60 08,8 2,72 2,72 2,23 0,97 04,2 09,06 08,27 0, , , ,35 2,87 0, , ,595 07, ,278 07, ,933 0,008-0,002 0, Apr 0,66 08,55 0,46 4,05 2,37 0,53 04,09 09,0 08,2 0, ,6889 0, ,8545 2,2352 0, ,023 09,044 07, ,273 07, ,8334 0,0073-0,0062 0, Mar 0,8 08,5 09,97 4,56 2,40 0,26 03,42 08,60 07,82, ,6280 0,9420 0,4045 2,2696 0, , ,737 07, , , ,6792 0,0069-0,0002 0, Feb,06 09,75 09,34 5,38 2,37,57 0,57 08,66 07,42, ,8238 0,784,2320 2,263, , ,794 07, , , ,862 0,0058-0,029-0, Jan,6 0,92 09,3 4,2 2,36 0,98 0,05 08,3 06,98, ,572 0,820,4588 2,276 0, ,960 08, , , , ,6966 0,0072-0,0020 0, Dec,0 0,3 08,86 0,06 2,2,0 03,77 08,53 07,88 0, ,6524 0,728,373 2,202,000 02, ,395 07, , ,579 07,590 0,0080 0,0004 0, Nov 0,78 09,7 09,88 07,93 2,9 6,48 03,94 07,62 08,02 0, ,5378,3886 0,30 2,2443 6, , , ,999 08,030 07,990 08,0040 0,00-0,000 0, Oct 0,55 09,22 09,79 08,63 2,20 22,54 03,7 07,73 08,55 0, ,6602,5303 2,4786 2, , , , , , ,447 08,4567 0,0058 0,0045 0, Sep 0,27 09,92 0,48 05,97 2,05 26,6 02,8 07,67 08,52 0,405 09,6826 2,5202 0,377 2,993 26,600 02, ,727 08, , , ,6029 0,0094 0,0003 0, Aug 09,93 09,9,99 04,9,95 26,6 0,4 08,38 08,32 09, ,6409 2,939 09,5034 2,047 26,600 02, , , ,326 08, ,5093 0,006-0,00 0, Jul 09,32 09,73 6,22 08,70,70 30,53 00,7 08,07 08,47 09, ,9985 3,3904 0,669, , , , ,773 08, ,736 08,7305 0,0078-0,0037 0, Jun 08,9 0,40 5,60 09,93,33 28,83 03,5 07,2 08,64 09,0984 0, ,772 09,7327, , ,439 07,444 08,370 08, , ,3799 0,0050-0,0054 0, May 08,67 08,97 3,0 2,72,2 25,5 03,32 06,82 08,23 08, , ,953 09,9, ,500 02,309 06, , , , ,8732 0,0070-0,0034 0, Apr 08,27 09,34 0,55 0,52,02 2,9 03,25 06,39 07,55 08,433 09,4726 0, ,4974 0,877 2,900 02,254 06, ,98 07,56 07,884 07,2009 0,0-0,0034 0, Mar 07,90 09,20 09,0 08,86 0,64 9,98 02,6 06,55 07,2 08,23 09,397 09,95 05,4900 0,5034 9, , , ,046 07,268 07,02 07,40 0,0068-0,0025 0, Feb 07,67 09,06 07,83 07,89 0,22 7,27 00,88 06,2 06,7 07,72 09, ,402 04,3952 0,059 7, ,875 06,603 06, ,749 06,538 06,5486 0,0049-0,009 0, Jan 07,58 0,8 06,74 0,87 09,38 7,3 00,56 05,60 05,80 07, , , , ,3026 7,300 02,637 05, , ,804 06, ,3966 0,004 0,0027 0, Dec 07,9 08,53 05,54 08,8 08,28 5,24 02,90 05,80 06,20 06,997 07, , ,382 08,3792 5, , , , , , ,9427 0,0077 0,0006 0, Nov 06,73 07,28 05,52 07,65 07,67 5,64 03,0 04,87 05,78 06, , ,422 0,069 07,7397 5,6400 0, , , , , ,7857 0,0072-0,0008 0, Oct 06,40 06,65 05,49 06,24 06,77,80 02,70 04,97 05,22 06, ,299 07, ,828 06,8702,8000 0, ,230 05,476 05,225 05,57 05,602 0,005 0,004 0, Sep 05,77 07,0 04,72 04,80 05,52,4 0,90 04,95 04,7 05,679 06, , ,928 05,6660,400 0, , , ,728 04, ,7953 0,0028-0,000 0, Aug 05,33 07,0 05,2 04,34 04,83 0,46 00,39 05,52 04,3 05,87 06, ,036 08, ,8977 0,4600 0, ,799 04, , , ,565 0,023 0,0007 0, Jul 04,88 06,45 06,67 06,50 04,20,44 00,22 05,36 04,25 04, ,79 03, , ,2272,4400 0, , , , ,453 04,4574 0,0003 0,005 0, Jun 04,73 05,83 09,64 07,2 04,07 0,93 02,34 04,48 04,50 04, , , , ,0646 0,9300 0, ,507 04, , , ,2352 0,0052-0,0033 0, May 04,6 05,7 05,30 0,56 03,93 0,35 02,57 04,25 04,40 04, ,407 02, , ,8580 0,3500 0, ,378 04,045 04, ,049 04,0470 0,0025 0,0004 0, Apr 04,48 06,02 02,5 2,74 03,80 09,34 02,44 04,03 04,5 04, ,466 0, , ,657 09,3400 0, , ,834 04,567 03,82 03,863 0,0067-0,0022 0, Mar 04,00 05,80 00,98 07,50 03,64 07,85 0,7 03,64 03,50 04,235 05,9065 0, ,397 03, ,8500 0,479 03,767 03, ,504 03,425 03,4252 0,004-0,0065-0, Feb 03,86 05,6 00,73 08,50 03,49 06,24 00,06 03,59 02,8 03, ,60 0, ,242 03, ,2400 0, ,625 03,84 02,886 03,732 03,768 0,0086-0,0082-0, Jan 03,98 07,27 00,99 09,4 03,3 05,90 99,84 03,05 02,5 03,892 05, , ,450 03,250 05,9000 0, , ,027 02,583 03, ,0324 0,0083 0,0067 0, Dec 04,00 06,34 00,68 05,43 03,03 05,53 0,87 03,8 03,04 03,848 05,809 02, ,460 03,54 05,5300 0, , , , , ,7958 0,0060 0,006 0, Nov 03,73 04,83 00,8 05,05 02,96 05,40 0,9 02,30 02,64 03, , , ,495 03,048 05, ,965 02,872 02, , , ,6626 0,0078 0,00 0, Oct 03,64 04,38 00,37 02,84 02,84 05,94 0,63 02,44 02,60 03,495 04, , ,006 02,949 05, , , , ,607 02, ,57 0,007 0,0035 0, Sep 03,47 04,84 00,2 05, 02,32 07,87 00,90 02,42 02,52 03, , ,70 09,56 02, , , , , ,574 02, ,628-0,0026 0,007 0, Aug 03,8 04,50 00,90 02,53 02,24,49 99,42 02,86 02,52 02,996 04,3220 0, , ,2985, , ,870 02, ,562 02,704 02,752-0,0038 0,0024 0, Jul 02,73 03,52 03,28 02,52 02,22,43 99,34 02,7 02,43 02, , , , ,2274, , , , ,429 02, ,5974-0,008 0,0037 0, column 20 5