MEASURE L 2018 STRATEGIC PLAN

Transcription

1 MEASURE L 2018 STRATEGIC PLAN Adopted 3/29/18

2 Executive Summary The delivery of the Measure L program for the voters and taxpayers of Stanislaus County is an exciting and challenging responsibility. Over the next 25 years, an array of projects and programs, representing a wide variety of transportation modes, and costing $1.8 billion, will be implemented by StanCOG. Included in that array of promised improvements are 16 regional projects that have been allocated 28%, or approximately $269 million, of the measure s total estimated revenues. As these projects move through the complex project development and delivery process we have in California, they will require periodic infusions of millions of dollars of measure funding, drawing down the entire measure program s cash balance, potentially creating negative balances. Yet at the same time, a steady stream of measure revenues, representing the other 72% of planned expenditures, must be passed through continuously to local agencies for road repairs, bicycle improvements, traffic management improvements and transit services, as promised in Measure L. A careful synchronization of planned expenditures with estimated revenues will be required to ensure that the funds are available for all of these purposes in a timely manner and that the entire program of improvements can be completed within 25 years. Adding to the complexity of the task, Measure L, as passed by voters, does not specify the date or order that the 16 projects are to be delivered. Furthermore, Measure L only partly funds the 16 regional projects. An estimated $750 million in state, federal, or other local revenues must be secured to fully fund the regional projects. Some of these funds are apportioned by formula and the amount of funds to be received and the timing of their arrival can be reasonably predicted by StanCOG and matched with planned Measure L expenditures. However, apportioned funds are not anticipated to be enough to fully fund the regional projects. Outside funding from competitive state and federal grant programs will need to be secured to complete most of the projects. The sheer magnitude of the funding needed to match the Measure L allocations in the Expenditure Plan will require StanCOG to develop a strategy unto itself for securing these funds. And the sporadic availability of these funds, based on project selection decisions made in Sacramento and Washington D.C., will to a large extent determine when over Measure L s 25 years the 16 regional projects can be delivered. To ensure that, within this context, the promises made to voters in Measure L can be completely fulfilled within the 25 years, a taxpayer safeguard was included in the Measure L Expenditure Plan requiring StanCOG to adopt a Strategic Plan by April 1, The Plan must spell out how StanCOG will synchronize the receipt of measure funds with pass-through payments to local agencies, large, periodic and occasionally overlapping expenses for the 16 regional projects, the use of state or federal formula funds received by StanCOG, and the securing of outside state and federal grants. The Strategic Plan is to include, among other items, a draft timeline for regional project delivery, cost estimates, and revenue estimates. If adopted before April 1, 2018, this document would fulfill that requirement.

3 The first-year responsibilities of becoming a new sales tax agency are challenging enough, even without having to prepare a Strategic Plan in the midst of it all. Consequently, with the press of time and with limited regional project cost data, this Plan and the strategy incorporated herein is intended to be brief and relatively simple and yet be effective enough to set the agency on a trajectory to fulfill the measure s promises. It focuses on delivering the 16 regional projects with the approximately $11 million in annual revenues remaining after pass-through payments are made to local agencies. The Plan has been developed with the idea that every two years it would be updated to incorporate changes in revenue and cost assumptions and Policy Board direction and project prioritization. Therefore, with those qualifiers, the strategy that would hereby be pursued starting in 2018 to expedite regional project delivery is summarized as follows: StanCOG will focus its resources on fully funding the highest priority Measure L regional project. Other projects will be allowed to advance only so long as they do not compete with it for Measure L or matching funds. The SR-132 project (SR-99 to Gates Rd.) is StanCOG s highest priority Measure L regional project. This one project consists of three phases or sub-projects, with a total estimated cost (in current dollars) of $380 million. StanCOG has already committed $115 million in Measure L and RTIP funding to the project. All new RTIP revenues will be dedicated to the SR-132 project until it is fully funded, as a match to Measure L funds allocated to the project in the Expenditure Plan. The McHenry Avenue project is grandfathered in to this strategy. This project would be allowed to advance because it would not compete for future matching funds with SR-132. In 2017, prior to the adoption of this Strategic Plan, StanCOG supported the submittal of an SB- 1 Local Partnership Program grant for $2 million for construction to match $2.6 million in Measure L funds. The project is far along in the development process and will extend the benefits of the widening project currently underway in San Joaquin County. A Pay-As-You-Go approach focused on delivering the SR-132 project will be used until it is determined if SB-1 will survive a repeal attempt on the 2018 ballot. If SB-1 remains intact, Measure L cash flow capacity exists within the first 10 years to advance additional regional projects to shovel ready status to compete for SB-1 matching funds. If SB-1 is repealed, a critical source of matching funds for regional projects will be lost, possibly delaying the schedule of the SR-132 project and reducing the capacity to add additional regional projects to the 10 year horizon. A multifaceted and dynamic strategy will be developed after adoption of this plan to aggressively pursue matching funds. Nearly $750 million in non-measure funding will be needed to deliver the 16 regional projects. StanCOG will need to secure approximately $22 million per year, on average, for 25 years, after subtracting out state formula funds it receives, to deliver the 16 regional projects.

4 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Purposes of the Strategic Plan Priority Regional Projects Strategic Plan Approach Plan Development Delivery Scenarios Strategies Strategic Plan Delivery Strategy... 6 FIGURE 1: 2018 Strategic Plan Format APPENDIX A: Cash Flow Analysis of Strategic Plan Delivery Approach APPENDIX B: Project Programming Request Forms for Regional Projects APPENDIX C: Three Cash Flow Scenarios Used For 2018 Strategic Plan Development APPENDIX D: Revenue Estimate for FY 17/18

5 1. Introduction Voter passage in November 2016 of the Local Roads First Transportation Funding Measure, referred to as Measure L, will provide approximately $960 million for transportation needs over 25 years within Stanislaus County, from The dedicated sales tax revenue generated will help leverage and match an estimated $842 million in state and federal funds. The measure went into effect and revenues began to be collected on April 1, Funds will be spent in accordance with the Expenditure Plan that was part of the measure ordinance. The Expenditure Plan identified projects and programs that will receive Measure L revenue and the amounts they will receive, but not the dates they will receive these funds. Recognizing that not all $1.8 billion in projects can be delivered at the outset of the program, one of the taxpayer safeguards included in the Measure L Expenditure Plan to ensure that the projects and programs approved by voters are funded and delivered is a requirement that the Stanislaus Council of Governments (StanCOG), the Local Transportation Authority responsible for the measure s administration, prepare and adopt a Strategic Plan within 12 months of the sales tax taking effect. Since revenue collection began on April 1, 2017, a Strategic Plan must be adopted by April 1, This document contains the Strategic Plan for the Measure L program. 2. Purposes of the Strategic Plan Per the Expenditure Plan: The Strategic Plan will include project cost estimates, revenue estimates, other matching funds, and a draft timeline for regional project delivery. Its prime purpose is to clarify program and project costs, schedule, financial plans and project readiness to expedite project delivery and to allow projects that are ready to proceed forward within the parameters of the Expenditure Plan. Strategic Plans prepared for transportation sales tax measures typically focus on scheduling a measure s regional projects for delivery by weighing each project s cost, priority and readiness with the estimated cash flow of measure funds and the estimated availability of matching funds. Strategic Plans highlight the fiscal years when cash flow is adequate or when shortfalls are projected to occur, and build consensus on whether to use a Pay-As-You-Go strategy and advance or delay projects to correspond with cash flow, or use a bonding strategy to deliver projects even during periods when cash shortfalls are projected to occur. Through the preparation of Strategic Plans, transportation sales tax authorities and regional project sponsors also typically reach a consensus on which projects will apply for competitive state and federal funding sources and in what cycles. 3. Priority Regional Projects Regional projects will receive 28% of Measure L revenues, or an estimated $269 million over 25 years. These funds will be used for planning, project development, right-of-way, and/or construction of 16 capital projects identified in the Expenditure Plan resulting from a March 29, 2018 Pg. 1

6 combination of public outreach, local agency priorities and StanCOG Board direction. Funds will be distributed for projects according to the amounts included in the Expenditure Plan with approximately $30,000,000 left in reserve to accommodate future regional needs. Seven of the 16 regional projects in Measure L were nominated to be considered for delivery in the measure s first 10 years based on interviews with StanCOG and local agency staff and direction from the Policy Board in December 2017 and January The projects, and their Measure L funding amounts, are: SR-132 (SR 99 to Gates Rd.) $74.3 mil. North County Corridor $59.8 mil. Faith Home Road $17.9 mil. SR-99 Briggsmore Interchange $24.9 mil. SR-99 Mitchell Service Road Interchange $30.7 mil. McHenry Avenue (Ladd Rd. to Hogue Rd.) $2.6 mil. SR-99 Standiford Interchange $7.9 mil. 4. Strategic Plan Approach The development of this Strategic Plan has focused on attempting to schedule the seven regional projects for delivery in the first 10 years of the Measure L program. 1 A ten-year program of planned Measure L expenditures for regional projects demonstrates how Measure L revenues will be used to match the programming in the FY 18/19 FY 22/23 Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP), and five additional years of estimated revenues (Figure 1). Essentially, a 10-year FY 18/19 FY 27/28 LTIP is being created to serve as the Strategic Plan covering the five-year RTIP period plus an additional five years. Every two years, at the same time that the RTIP is updated, the Strategic Plan will be simultaneously updated to capture two new years of Measure L revenues. This will allow a coordinated programming of the RTIP s revenues to Measure L regional projects needing matching funds. When measure and RTIP capacity is available within the new 10 year horizon, regional measure projects may be added to the plan. Since the Strategic Plan can be amended at any time, amendments can be made between biennial updates as necessary to reflect changes in the plan s assumptions, including rates of growth of revenues and cost escalation rates, and outside funding received (or not received) for regional projects. Ten years is the typical time frame for developing and constructing a large transportation capital projects in California. So theoretically, all phases of a regional project could be programmed in the plan s 10 year horizon. 1 The 2018 Strategic Plan will also include revenues collected in FY 17/18, prior to the adoption of the Plan. March 29, 2018 Pg. 2

7 Figure Strategic Plan Format FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FT 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 Measure L RTIP 2018 RTIP Project 5 years of additional RTIP revenues A 10-year window also allows StanCOG to anticipate cash flow issues and decide whether to issue bonds or pursue other debt instruments, such as federal TIFIA loans. If bond issuances are pursued, they can be carefully scheduled with the assistance of StanCOG s Measure L Financial Advisor. A sub-strategy for bonding can also be developed separately that allows multiple cash flow shortages to be addressed with a single consolidated bond issuance or through government loan programs such as TIFIA. 5. Plan Development A cash flow model of Measure L regional revenues and project expenditures was created to aid in the development of the Strategic Plan delivery strategy. This required cash flowing the Measure L funds and matching funds that StanCOG is responsible for programming or would have to help regional project sponsors secure. These matching funds include StanCOG s RTIP funds and outside competitive funding from State and federal programs such as SB-1 Solutions for Congested Corridors, SB-1 Trade Corridor Enhancements, federal TIGER programs, etc. The sponsors of some of the priority regional projects indicated they will be providing partial funding from locally controlled sources such as public facilities fees. It was assumed in developing the cash flow model that Measure L funds will be passed through on an annual basis without interruption to the cities and Stanislaus County for the Local Control Programs (65% of total revenues), including Local Streets & Roads, Traffic Management, Bicycle & Pedestrian Improvements. To expedite the Plan s preparation, it was also assumed that Transit Program funds (7%) would be passed through annually to project sponsors, as if for annual transit operations. StanCOG staff has indicated that Rail Services funds and Community Connections funds will in reality be allocated on a project-by-project basis to projects and sponsors using project selection methods yet to be determined. When individual projects are selected for funding, they will be amended into the Strategic Plan at a later date, and the cash flow reanalyzed, or captured in the 2020 update of the Strategic Plan. But for the first iteration of the Strategic Plan, they are treated as pass through funds. Measure L will generate an estimated $40 million in FY 17/18, based on actual revenues received to date. It was assumed that revenues will grow at a conservative rate of 3.25% per year March 29, 2018 Pg. 3

8 over the ten year period, based on total taxable sales in the Stanislaus County from 2012 to 2015 (the last year total year data is available from the BOE) which grew year over year, 6.45%, 3.45%, and 3.4%, respectively. Using an estimate of $40 million in revenues for FY 17/18 projections, approximately $11.3 million will be available for regional projects after passing through funding for Local Control Programs and Transit Programs. The same method of estimating regional project funding was used for the 10 year Strategic Plan period. The project allocations for each regional project in the Expenditure Plan were escalated by 3.25%, matching the assumed rate of growth of measure revenues, until the first fiscal year that Measure L funds are proposed to be expended on the project. For the 2018 RTIP cycle, covering FYs 18/19 to 22/23, StanCOG received $16.35 million in new revenues for regional projects. The funds were available for programming in the 4th and 5th years, FY 21/22 and 22/23. Including programmed and unprogrammed carry-over from the 2016 cycle of $29,259,000, StanCOG has a total of $ million currently programmed in the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP). For the purposes of the 2018 Strategic Plan, it was assumed that StanCOG will use $ million of the $16.35 million in new revenues every two years over the 10 year Strategic Plan horizon for programming to regional projects, with a rate of growth of 3.25% per year. The balance of funds annually will be used by StanCOG for RTIP administration (ie., Planning, Programming & Monitoring). A project cost escalation rate of 4.0% annually was used for the 10 year period. This was arrived at by reviewing the California Construction Cost Indices & Forecast. Since 2008, construction costs for highway bridges and highways have escalated annually an average of 1% and 4.5%, respectively. Both indices have shown a wide range in cost escalation. The assumption for the interest rates on bonds, if needed to maintain positive cash flow, is 4% and the term of repayment would be assumed to be completed before 2042, when Measure L expires. To establish a benchmark of a realistic amount of outside competitive funding that might be awarded to StanCOG s Measure L regional projects over the Strategic Plan period, it was assumed that outside funding awarded competitively was awarded by formula instead, with StanCOG receiving $92 million over 10 years. 2 This was derived by assuming that StanCOG would annually receive one-half of its 1.4% state population share in competitive grant funding from the Local Partnership Program, Solutions for Congested Corridors, and Trade Corridors 2 For the first draft of cash flow scenarios shown in Appendix C, it was assumed that StanCOG would receive 1.4% of its population share. Based on direction from the Policy Board, a more conservative assumption of one-half of 1.4% was used for the final cash flow analysis shown in Appendix A. March 29, 2018 Pg. 4

9 programs in SB-1, and Interregional Improvement Program (IIP) funding, plus an additional $2 million in TIGER funding annually. 6. Delivery Scenarios Strategies Three potential strategies for delivering the seven priority regional projects in 10 years (in current dollars) were developed for analysis and discussion purposes by the TAC, Management & Finance Committee and to receive direction from the Policy Board in January and February The scenarios are included in Appendix C. An Unconstrained Scenario was developed to see how closely the funds needed by the sponsors of the seven priority projects aligned with projected measure and matching fund revenues over the 10-year Strategic Plan period. In order to deliver all seven projects over the next 10 years, $241.7 million in Measure L funds (in constant dollars) would be needed as compared to the $112.8 M in measure funds that are projected to be available, resulting in a shortfall of measure funds of $128.8 M (line 46). Large STIP and outside matching fund shortfalls would also be realized. This scenario demonstrates that an unconstrained and simultaneous pursuit of all seven projects over the first 10 years would not be feasible. In reviewing this scenario in February 2018, Board members expressed concern about StanCOG possibly pursuing multiple project priorities. They believed that StanCOG should instead focus on delivering one project at a time, before moving on to the next project. A Pay-As-You-Go Scenario was developed to indicate the number of projects that could be delivered while maintaining positive measure and matching fund balances. With these constraints, three regional projects could be delivered: SR-132 (all three phases), McHenry Avenue, and Mitchell Service Road if it relied solely on over $90 million in Public Facilities Fees from the City of Ceres as matching funds. The North County Corridor project could move forward if it received outside funding for design in FY 25/26. The remaining priority projects are delayed outside the 10-year horizon. This scenario demonstrated that only a small number of regional projects could advance in the first 10 years if Measure and outside matching funds were constrained to the amount of projected funds available, and even then, some projects would need to generate extraordinary amounts of local funding to be included in the Pay-As-You-Go scenario. Comments from TAC members and Board members indicated that the amount of Public Facilities Fees needed for Mitchell Service Road was unlikely to be realized in 10 years, and this scenario should be further constrained to eliminate that assumption. Finally, a Bonding Scenario was developed to advance as many of the seven priority projects as possible while maintaining positive fund balances for measure and matching funds, including using bonding to maintain a positive Measure L cash flow. This scenario demonstrated that if bond issuances totaling $32 million are made, four projects could be delivered: SR-132 (all three phases), SR-99 Mitchell Service Road (again, assuming all matching funds come from Public Facilities Fees), McHenry Avenue and Faith Home Road. Additionally, the Mitchell Service March 29, 2018 Pg. 5

10 Road project could move forward on an earlier schedule than the Pay-As-You-Go scenario. Bonding would require nearly $13 million in interest payments, presumably taken from the $30 million in regional contingency funding in the Expenditure Plan. But it could offset the escalated project construction costs of delivering the projects at a later date from a Pay-As-You-Go approach. In General, the Board, at its February 21, 2018 meeting, expressed concern that the scenarios should rely on conservative assumptions so as to not over promise and under deliver, creating false expectations for the county s residents as far as the delivery schedules for the projects. Board members also emphasized that StanCOG should not overextend its resources. They expressed support for a Pay-As-You-Go delivery strategy that focused on delivering one priority regional project at a time before moving on to the next project Strategic Plan Delivery Strategy Based on the feedback received during the development of draft scenarios, the final strategy for delivering projects in the first 10 years of Measure L is as follows. Appendix A includes a spreadsheet showing how estimated Measure L funds and matching funds would be programmed by fiscal year according to this delivery strategy. I. StanCOG will focus its resources on fully funding the highest priority Measure L regional project. Other projects will only be allowed to advance if they do not compete with it for Measure L or matching funds. II. III. The SR-132 project, from SR-99 to Gates Road, is the highest priority regional project. This one project consists of three separate sub-projects or phases. Final environmental approval for phases 1 and 2 are scheduled for Spring It is the highest priority regional project in the Measure L Expenditure Plan. Approximately $115 million in Measure L and RTIP funds from StanCOG have been committed to the project. A Trade Corridors Enhancement grant application for $30 million has also been submitted to the California Transportation Commission by StanCOG. Funding award announcements will be made in April, after the adoption of this plan. Use a Pay-As-You-Go approach for delivering regional projects. This approach should be reevaluated after the 2018 election. If SB-1 survives repeal, additional Measure L regional projects may be added to the 10 year horizon using projected cash balances to advance them to shovel ready status to compete for SB-1 matching funds. If SB-1 is repealed, a critical source of matching funds will be lost, the urgency of advancing other 3 Right-of-way acquisition along Dakota Avenue will be avoided as part of Phase 2. The City of Modesto and Stanislaus County will simultaneously construct Phases 2 and 3 to avoid acquiring right-of-way. Or alternatively, pavement will be added for four lanes in Phase 2 but striped for 2 lanes until Phase 3 is constructed, eliminating the need for any additional right of way acquisition on Dakota beyond what is needed for the Phase 1 project. March 29, 2018 Pg. 6

11 Measure L regional projects to shovel ready status will be reduced, and the delivery schedule of SR-132 in this plan may need to be delayed. Alternatively, there appears at this time to be no need to pursue a bonding approach to maintain a positive Measure L cash flow within the next two years, until the Strategic Plan is next updated. IV. Commit new RTIP revenues over the next 10 years to the SR-132 project as matching funds. Based on cost information provided by the project sponsors, all new estimated RTIP revenues would need to be dedicated to the SR-132 project to deliver it within 10 years. 4 V. Strategically apply Measure L funds to project components to maximize the opportunities to leverage matching funds, to the extent practical. Measure funded construction costs are eligible for a 1-1 match from the SB-1 Solutions for Congested Corridors and Local Partnership programs. Consequently, the Strategic Plan allocates Measure L funds to construction phases of SR-132 to maintain those leveraging opportunities. VI. VII. Provide Measure L funding for construction of the McHenry Avenue project in FY 20/21. This project would widen McHenry Avenue to five lanes from Ladd Road to the Stanislaus River Bridge. It extends the benefits of the 1.1 mile widening of McHenry Avenue underway in San Joaquin County from Jones Road near Escalon to.3 miles south of the bridge. The StanCOG Board programmed $4.1 million to the project in the 2018 RTIP for construction, prior to the initiation of this Strategic Plan. So this plan builds upon the Board s commitment to delivering the project and does not compete for future matching funds with the SR-132 project. Measure funding would provide about 20% of the total project cost and would make the project eligible for a $2 million match of Local Partnership Program funds. Measure funds would represent approximately 20% of the total project cost. Aggressively pursue outside matching funds from state and federal sources. The $268 million in Measure L funding for the 16 regional projects represents roughly 25% of the total estimated cost of the projects. StanCOG is going to have to leverage an additional $750 million to deliver the projects promised to voters. Just the SR-132 project alone will require approximately $174 million in outside matching funds, almost double the benchmark amount of $92 million it is assumed StanCOG could receive in the Strategic Plan s 10-year cash flow modeling analysis in Appendix A. Pursuing outside funding will include advocating for $91 million in STIP-IIP funding for the North County Corridor project that was committed by the California Transportation Commission (CTC) to the Oakdale Bypass before it was canceled. 4 The 2018 Strategic Plan does not include the dedication of RSTP and CMAQ funding exclusively to regional projects. A discussion of the priority uses of these sources would occur, per Strategy VIII, before the next Strategic Plan update in March 29, 2018 Pg. 7

12 VIII. IX. Adopt a strategy for pursuing matching funding before the 2020 Strategic Plan update. A multifaceted strategy should be adopted by the Policy Board and its member agencies defining regional priorities for funding and the strategic approach to the very large task ahead of funding the regional projects. The strategy could include working together to develop new sources of funding that could contribute to regional projects such as a countywide traffic impact fee, or reprioritizing the uses of discretionary StanCOG funding such as Regional Surface Transportation Program (RSTP) and Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ). Other elements of the strategy could include clarifying who is responsible for resourcing the preparation of Measure L grants, if additional staff or consultant grant writers are needed and who should house or administer them, and whether additional graphics software and video production capabilities are needed to support high-quality grant applications if done in-house. Update the Strategic Plan every two years in concert with the development and adoption of the Regional Transportation Improvement Program. Every two years, at the same time that the RTIP is updated, the Strategic Plan will be simultaneously updated to capture two new years of Measure L revenues. This will allow a coordinated programming of the RTIP s revenues to Measure L regional projects needing matching funds, per the programming approach in Appendix A. If measure and RTIP funding capacity is available in the two outer years, regional measure projects may be nominated to be added to the updated Strategic Plan, dependent on a cash flow analysis such as that in Appendix A. X. Prepare a cost estimate, project scope and schedule for each regional project nominated by its sponsor to be included in the next Strategic Plan update. Any project nominated by its sponsor for new and limited Measure L regional revenue will be required to have a cost estimate, project scope and schedule prepared by qualified engineers for review by StanCOG. This will insure that industry-standard estimating methods and materials prices are used for the nominated projects resulting in a fair, apples to apples comparison of the scope, cost and schedule of the nominated projects during the 2020 update. March 29, 2018 Pg. 8

13 APPENDIX A: Cash Flow Analysis of Strategic Plan Delivery Approach

14 3/17/2018 CASH FLOW ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIC PLAN DELIVERY APPROACH: REVISED PAY-AS-YOU-GO Revenues Escalated 3.25%, Costs 4% Row FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 TOTAL 16 PROPOSED MEASURE L REGIONAL PROJECT EXPENDITURES SR SR-99 to Gates Road 19 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 10,000 2,149 15,488 15,488 43,124 51% 20 Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 15,011 15,011 18% 84,061 * 21 Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 3,872 4,846 4,846 12,362 25,927 31% 31 McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,605 2, Total Regional Projects - Measure L 10,000 2,149 15,488 18, ,872 4,846 19, , , Measure L Regional Project Revenues 11,322 11,690 12,070 12,462 12,867 13,285 13,717 14,163 14,623 15,098 15, , Bond Proceeds 0 44 Bond Service \ Debt Payments 0 45 Proposed Expenditures (from above) 10,000 2,149 15,488 18, ,872 4,846 19, , , Annual Balance 1,322 9,541-3,418-5,630 12,867 9,413 8,871-5,694 14,623 2,736 15, Cumulative Balance 1,322 10,863 7,446 1,815 14,683 24,096 32,967 27,272 41,896 44,632 60,221 60, PROPOSED STIP EXPENDITURES SR SR-99 to Gates Road 54 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 4,380 43,919 48, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 11,007 2,347 10,298 28,771 52, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 22,074 22, McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 4,100 4, Total Regional Projects - STIP 4, ,919 15, ,347 10,298 28, , , Previously Programmed 3,880 32,055 4,100 40, Estimated STIP Revenues 12, ,877 17,992 19,180 20,447 86, Proposed Expenditures (from above) 4, ,919 15, ,347 10,298 28, , , Cumulative Balance ,919 4,100 5,870 5,870 21,515 11,217 1,626 1, PROPOSED OUTSIDE MATCHING (SB-1, IIP, TIGER, etc.) SR SR-99 to Gates Road 84 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 30,000 30, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 85,536 85, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 100, , McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,000 2, Total Regional Projects - Outside Funding ,000 2, , , , Estimated Revenues 8,352 8,624 8,904 9,193 9,492 9,801 10,119 10,448 10,788 11,138 11, , Proposed Expenditures (from above) ,000 2, , , , Cumulative Balance 8,352 16,976-4,120 3,073 12,565 22,366 32,485-42,602-31, , , ,563 * Measure L funds for the SR-132 project are fungible. Savings from Phase 1 will be rolled to Phase 2, savings from Phase 2 will be rolled to Phase 3.

15 APPENDIX B: Project Programming Request Forms for Regional Projects (In constant dollars)

16 Project Title: SR 132 Phase 1 Lead Agency: City of Modesto Project Programming Request (PPR) Project Information: Funding Information: Date: 3/19/ ,206 10,206 10,184 10, ,986 6,140 15,126 CON 107,429 15, ,429 TOTAL 29,831 6, ,429 15, ,400 Fund No. 1 6,000 6,000 Measure L Regional Project Funding Proposed Total Project Cost ($1,000s) 4,000 2,081 6,081 CON 15,000 15,000 30,000 TOTAL 10,000 2,081 15,000 15,000 42,081 Fund No. 2 3,241 3, State Transportation Improvement Program - RIP CON 41,419 41,419 TOTAL 4,380 41,419 45,799 Includes Kern County swap funds Fund No. 3 CON 30,000 30,000 TOTAL 30,000 30,000 Fund No CON TOTAL Fund No. 5 5,947 5,947 SB-1 Trade Corridors Enhancement Program TRCP Demo - Federal Demonstration Funds 4,486 4,486 CON 5,010 5,010 TOTAL 10,433 5,010 15,443 Page 1

17 Project Title: SR 132 Phase 1 Fund No. 6 Local Funds - City Funds Project Programming Request (PPR) Project Information: ,000 4,000 CON TOTAL 4,150 4,150 Fund No. 7 4,059 4,059 CON 2,000 2,000 TOTAL 4,059 2,000 6,059 Fund No CON TOTAL Fund No. 9 CON 5,000 5,000 TOTAL 5,000 5,000 Fund No. 10 RSTP-STP Local Local Transportation Funds (LTF) County Public Facilities Fees TIGER CON 9,000 9,000 TOTAL 9,000 9,000 Date: 3/19/2018 Page 2

18 Project Title: SR 132 Phase 2 Lead Agency: City of Modesto Project Programming Request (PPR) Project Information: Funding Information: Date: 3/18/2018 Proposed Total Project Cost ($1,000s) 10,000 10,000 2,000 2,000 12,000 12,000 8,500 8,500 CON 88,000 88,000 TOTAL 10,000 2,000 8, , ,500 Fund No. 1 12,000 12,000 CON Measure L Regional Project Funding TOTAL 12,000 12,000 Use to leverage SB1 SLPP Program funds Fund No. 2 RTIP Funding: State Transportation Improvement Program 10,000 10,000 2,000 2,000 8,500 8,500 CON 23,000 23,000 TOTAL 10,000 2,000 8,500 23,000 43,500 Fund No. 3 TIGER CON 33,000 33,000 TOTAL 33,000 33,000 Fund No. 4 SB-1 Local Partnership Program CON 12,000 12,000 TOTAL 12,000 12,000 Measure L construction funds are eligible for a match of LPP funding Fund No. 5 INFRA CON 20,000 20,000 TOTAL 20,000 20,000 Page 3

19 Project Title: SR 132 Phase 3 Lead Agency: Stanislaus County Project Programming Request (PPR) Project Information: Funding Information: Date: 3/18/2018 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 3,300 3,300 9,270 9,270 4,000 4,000 8,000 CON 86,900 86,900 TOTAL 5,000 5,000 3,300 4,000 4,000 96, ,470 Fund No. 1 3,300 3,300 9,270 9,270 4,000 4,000 8,000 CON TOTAL 3,300 4,000 4,000 9,270 20,570 Fund No. 2 CON 16,370 16,370 TOTAL 16,370 16,370 Fund No. 3 CON 61,260 61,260 TOTAL 61,260 61,260 Fund No. 4 CON 9,270 9,270 TOTAL 9,270 9,270 Fund No. 5 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 CON Measure L Regional Project Funding State Transportation Improvement Program - RIP TIGER SB-1 Local Partnership Program PFF - RTIF Update Proposed Total Project Cost ($1,000s) TOTAL 5,000 5,000 10,000 Page 4

20 Measure L Project Programming Request (PPR) Project Information: Project Title: McHenry Avenue Widening (Ladd Rd to Stanislaus River Bridge) Lead Agency: County of Stanislaus Funding Information: Date: 3/18/2018 1,707 1, ,575 1,575 CON 12,783 12,783 TOTAL 4,032 12,783 16,815 Fund No. 1 CON 2,605 2,605 TOTAL 2,605 2,605 Fund No. 2 CON 4,100 4,100 TOTAL 4,100 4,100 Fund No. 3 CON 2,000 2,000 TOTAL 2,000 2,000 Fund No. 4 1,207 1,207 CON TOTAL 1,207 1,207 Fund No Measure L Regional Project Funding Proposed Total Project Cost ($1,000s) StanCOG RTIP: State Regional Transportation Improvement Program - (STIP) SB-1 (Local Partnership Program - Competitive) Local - Regional Traffic Impact Fees (PFF-RTIF) Federal Surface Transportation Zblock Grant Funds (STBG) 1,575 1,575 CON 3,878 3,878 TOTAL 2,825 3,878 6,703 Page 5

21 Measure L Project Programming Request (PPR) Project Information: Project Title: McHenry Avenue Widening (Ladd Rd to Stanislaus River Bridge) Fund No. 6 Local Transportation Funds (LTF) CON TOTAL Date: 3/18/2018 Page 6

22 APPENDIX C: Three Cash Flow Scenarios Used For 2018 Strategic Plan Development

23 2/5/2018 DRAFT #1 UNCONSTRAINED SCENARIO Constant Dollars In the Uncontrained Scenario,the objective is to see how closely the funds needed by the sponsors of the seven priority regional projects aligns with projected measure and matching fund revenues. Large negative measure and matching fund balances would result over the program's first 11 years. Row FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 TOTAL PROPOSED MEASURE L REGIONAL PROJECT EXPENDITURES SR SR-99 to Gates Road 18 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 10,000 17,081 15,000 42,081 44% 19 Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 10,000 5,500 5,000 5,000 25,500 27% 95, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 3,300 8,000 16,670 27,970 29% 23 North County Corridor 5,000 5,000 25,000 25,000 60, Faith Home Road 4,750 2,750 1,500 5,000 3,900 17, SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 500 2, ,000 9,500 5,000 25, SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 2,000 2,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 1,100 31, McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,605 2, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave 3, ,000 9, Total Regional Projects - Measure L 10,000 19,581 39,855 22,050 41,000 52,500 56, , Measure L Regional Project Revenues 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10, , Bond Proceeds 0 43 Bond Service \ Debt Payments 44 Proposed Expenditures (from above) 10,000 19,581 39,855 22,050 41,000 52,500 56, , Annual Balance 256-9,325-29,599-11,794-30,744-42,244-46,414 10,256 10,256 10,256 10, Cumulative Balance 256-9,068-38,667-50,460-81, , , , , , , , PROPOSED STIP MATCHING FUNDS SR SR-99 to Gates Road 53 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 3,880 3, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 30,000 30, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 24,500 24, North County Corridor 80,000 80, Faith Home Road 20,000 20, SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 25,000 25, SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 0 65 McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 4,100 4, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave 30,000 30, Total Regional Projects - STIP-RTIP 3, , , ,500 80, , Estimated STIP Revenues 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 93, Proposed Expenditures (from above) 3, , , ,500 80, , Cumulative Balance 11,653 11,653 23,085 23,085 18,618 18,618-75, , , , , , PROPOSED OUTSIDE MATCHING FUND (SB-1, IIP, TIGER, etc.) SR SR-99 to Gates Road 83 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 30,000 30, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 65,000 65, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 55,000 55, North County Corridor 25,000 66, , , Faith Home Road 22,000 22, SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 66,000 66, SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 0 95 McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,000 2, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave 14,500 60,000 74, Total Regional Projects - Outside Matching Funds 0 55,000 2,000 66,000 22,000 69, , , , Estimated Revenues 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14, , Proposed Outside Expenditures (from above) 0 55,000 2,000 66,000 22,000 69, , , , Cumulative Balance 14,700-25,600-12,900-64,200-71, , , , , , , ,800 Exceeds Exp. Plan Amount of $74.25 M

24 2/4/2018 DRAFT #2 PAY-AS-YOU-GO SCENARIO Constant Dollars In the Pay-As-You-Go scenario,the objective is to advance as many projects as possible while maintaining positive fund balances. Three project can move forward using measure funds: SR-132 (all three phases), Mitchell Service Road, and McHenry. The North County Corridor Project can move forward if it receives outside funding for design in FY 25/26. All other projects are delayed outside the 11 year horizon. Row FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 TOTAL PROPOSED MEASURE L REGIONAL PROJECT EXPENDITURES SR SR-99 to Gates Road 18 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 10,000 17,081 27,081 36% 19 Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 10,000 5,500 5,000 20,500 27% 75, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 3,300 8,000 16,670 27,970 37% 23 North County Corridor 0 24 Faith Home Road 0 25 SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 0 26 SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 2,000 2,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 1,100 31, McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,605 2, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave 0 38 Total Regional Projects - Measure L 10, ,686 10,000 5,500 7,000 5,300 18,000 8,000 8,000 17, , Measure L Regional Project Revenues 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10, , Bond Proceeds 0 43 Bond Service \ Debt Payments 0 44 Proposed Expenditures (from above) 10, ,686 10,000 5,500 7,000 5,300 18,000 8,000 8,000 17, , Annual Balance ,256-9, ,756 3,256 4,956-7,744 2,256 2,256-7, Cumulative Balance ,513 1,083 1,340 6,096 9,352 14,309 6,565 8,822 11,078 3,564 3, PROPOSED STIP EXPENDITURES SR SR-99 to Gates Road 53 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 3,880 12,364 16, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 30,000 30, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 24,500 24, North County Corridor 0 59 Faith Home Road 0 60 SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 0 61 SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 0 65 McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 4,100 4, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave 0 73 Total Regional Projects - STIP 3, , , ,500 74, Estimated STIP Revenues 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 93, Proposed Expenditures (from above) 3, , , ,500 74, Cumulative Balance 11,653 11,653 10,721 10,721 26,254 26,254 11,786 11,786 27,319 27,319 18,351 18, PROPOSED OUTSIDE MATCHING (SB-1, IIP, TIGER, etc.) SR SR-99 to Gates Road 83 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 30,000 30, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 65,000 65, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 20,000 20, North County Corridor 27,000 27, Faith Home Road 0 90 SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 0 91 SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 0 95 McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,000 2, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave Total Regional Projects - Outside Funding , , , , , Estimated Revenues 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14, , Proposed Expenditures (from above) , , , , , Cumulative Balance 14,700 29,400 12,100 26,800 41,500 56,200 5,900 20,600 8,300 23,000 17,700 17,700 Reduced Ph. 1 measure funds, increased STIP funds, to more closely align with Exp. Plan amount

25 2/4/2018 DRAFT #3 BONDING SCENARIO Constant Dollars In the Bonding Scenario, the objective is to advance as many of the seven priority projects as possible while maintaining positive fund balances for measure and matching funds, including using bonding to maintain a postive measure cash flow. If bond issuances of $5M, (repaid in 21 yrs. ) and $27 M (repaid in 19 yrs.) occur in FY 19/20 and 21/22 respectively, four projects can move forward: SR-132 (all three phases), Mitchell Service Road, and McHenry, Faith Home Road. All other projects are delayed outside the 11 year horizon. The interest payments would total $12.6 M. Row FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 TOTAL PROPOSED MEASURE L REGIONAL PROJECT EXPENDITURES SR SR-99 to Gates Road 18 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 10,000 17,081 27,081 36% 19 Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 10,000 5,500 5,000 20,500 27% 75, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 3,300 8,000 16,670 27,970 37% 23 North County Corridor 0 24 Faith Home Road 4,750 2,750 10,400 17, SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 0 26 SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 2,000 2,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 1,100 31, McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,605 2, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave 0 38 Total Regional Projects - Measure L 10,000 2,000 21,686 10,000 20,250 15,750 11,300 9,100 10, , , Measure L Regional Project Revenues 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10,256 10, , Bond Proceeds 5,000 27,000 32, Bond Service \ Debt Payments ,383 2,383 2,383 2,383 2,383 2,383 2,383 17, Proposed Expenditures (from above) 10,000 2,000 21,686 10,000 20,250 15,750 11,300 9,100 10, , , Annual Balance 256 8,256-6, ,623-7,877-3,427-1,227-2,527 7,873-8, Cumulative (Cash) Balance 256 8,513 1,731 1,636 16,259 8,382 4,956 3,729 1,203 9, PROPOSED STIP MATCHING FUNDS SR SR-99 to Gates Road 53 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 3,880 12,364 16, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 30,000 30, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 24,500 24, North County Corridor 0 59 Faith Home Road 20,000 20, SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 0 61 SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 0 65 McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 4,100 4, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave 0 73 Total Regional Projects - STIP 3, , , , ,500 94, Estimated STIP Revenues 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 15,533 93, Proposed Expenditures (from above) 3, , , , ,500 94, Cumulative Balance 11,653 11,653 10,721 10,721 26,254 26,254 11,786 11,786 7,319 7,319-1,649-1, PROPOSED OUTSIDE MATCHING (SB-1, IIP, TIGER, etc.) SR SR-99 to Gates Road 83 Phase 1 - Two Lane Expressway 30,000 30, Phase 2-4 Ln Expan SR-99 to Dakota 65,000 65, Phase 3-4 Ln Expan Dakota to Gates 20,000 20, North County Corridor 0 89 Faith Home Road 22,000 22, SR-99 - Briggsmore Interchange 0 91 SR-99 - Mitchell Service Road 0 95 McHenry - Ladd Rd to Hogue Rd 2,000 2, SR108-SR120 - SR-99 & Standiford Ave Total Regional Projects - Outside Funding , , , , , Estimated Revenues 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14,700 14, , Proposed Expenditures (from above) , , , , , Cumulative Balance 14,700 29,400 12,100 26,800 41,500 56,200 5,900 20,600 13,300 28,000 22,700 22,700 Reduced Ph.1 measure funds, increased STIP funds, to more closely align with Exp. Plan amount With some more tweaking, this negative in year 11 could be eliminated

26 APPENDIX D: Revenue Estimate for FY 17/18

27 Appendix D: Program Allocations of Est. FY 17/18 Revenue Assumptions Expenditure Plan Categories/Funds Total Allocation from BOE 40,845,607 Less StanCOG Adminstration 1% 408,456 Remaining Allocations 40,437,151 Allocation Percentages Jurisdiction Categories/Funds TOTAL CATEGORY LOCAL CONTROL 65% 26,284,148 Local Streets and Roads - 50% Traffic Management - 10% Bike and Pedestrian - 5% 20,218, % Ceres - Local Streets & Roads 1,285, % Hughson - Local Streets & Roads 254, % Modesto - Local Streets & Roads 7,236, % Newman - Local Streets & Roads 254, % Oakdale - Local Streets & Roads 780, % Patterson - Local Streets & Roads 919, % Riverbank - Local Streets & Roads 691, % Turlock - Local Streets & Roads 3,085, % Waterford - Local Streets & Roads 254, % Stanislaus County - Local Streets & Roads 5,454, % 4,043, % Ceres - Traffic Management 257, % Hughson - Traffic Management 50, % Modesto - Traffic Management 1,447, % Newman - Traffic Management 50, % Oakdale - Traffic Management 156, % Patterson - Traffic Management 183, % Riverbank - Traffic Management 138, % Turlock - Traffic Management 617, % Waterford -Traffic Management 50, % Stanislaus County - Traffic Management 1,090, % 2,021, % Ceres - Bike and Pedestrian 128, % Hughson - Bike and Pedestrian 25, % Modesto - Bike and Pedestrian 723, % Newman - Bike and Pedestrian 25, % Oakdale - Bike and Pedestrian 78, % Patterson - Bike and Pedestrian 91, % Riverbank - Bike and Pedestrian 69, % Turlock - Bike and Pedestrian 308, % Waterford - Bike and Pedestrian 25, % Stanislaus County - Bike and Pedestrian 545,497 REGIONAL PROJECTS 28% Distribution By Project According to Strategic Plan Schedule 11,322,402 TRANSIT PROVIDERS 7% 2,830,601 Point-To-Point Services for Seniors, Veterans and Persons With Disabilities - 30% % MOVE 849,180 Community Connections - 30% Distribution By Project Projects and selection method to be determined 849,180 Transit Services - 20% 566, % Ceres - Transit Services 39, % Modesto - Transit Services 294, % Turlock - Transit Services 45, % Stanislaus County - Transit Services 186,820 Rail Services - 20% Distribution By Project Projects and project selection method to be determined 566,120 Total Allocations 40,845,607.38