Ключевые слова: ВВП, эконометрическая модель, экспорт сырой нефти, "голландская болезнь", экономика, курс USD$/EUR, доходы федерального бюджета.

Transcription

1 УДК Акимова В.Р. Студентка магистратуры Международного финансового факультета Научный руководитель: Трегуб И.В. Профессор кафедры «Системный анализ и моделирование экономических процессов» Финансовый университет при правительстве РФ Россия, г. Москва ГОЛЛАНДСКАЯ БОЛЕЗНЬ В РОССИИ И ЕЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА ВВП. Аннотация: В данной статье рассматривается, как "голландская болезнь" влияет на экономики России и в основном ключевой фигурой, которая представляет собой, в каком состоянии находится экономика - ВВП. Модель показывает, что рост доходов федерального бюджета, экспорт сырой нефти, а также в отношении USD / RUB имеет прямое влияние на ВВП России. Ключевые слова: ВВП, эконометрическая модель, экспорт сырой нефти, "голландская болезнь", экономика, курс USD$/EUR, доходы федерального бюджета. УДК Akimova V.R. Master student of International Finance Faculty Academic supervisor: Tregub I.V. Associate Professor of the Department «System analysis and modeling of economic processes» Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation Russia, Moscow 1

2 The Dutch Disease in Russia and its influence on GDP. Abstract: This paper investigates how "Dutch disease" influences Russian economy and mainly the key figure which represents in what condition is the economy GDP. Model shows that growth in federal budget income, exports of crude oil and in relation of USD/RUB has direct influence on GDP of Russia. Key words: GDP, Economic model, Export of crude oil, "Dutch disease", Economics, currency course USD$/EUR, Federal budget income. Summary This work is dedicated to the analysis of economic model in Russia. The work contains description of a problem, economic indicators of Russia for the period , model estimation with the help of two-stage least square method. Data and model were analyzed in EViews program. This is a practical example of mathematical and computer modeling based on the real data. This model contains mathematical representation of the system according to the formulation of problem, methods of constructing the model, computer implementation process modeling and analysis of results. After reading this research, the one gets more information concerning the dependence of GDP other macroeconomic indicators, such as federal budget income, exports of crude oil and relation of USD/RUB. These indicators in Russia are quite high and interesting to analyze. Although not all the tests were passed with a merit, the model is really suitable for the chosen country. Introduction Many politicians and scientists made much effort to analyze the "Dutch disease" and its effect on Russia economy. Great contribution to the study of this 2

3 issue made by the German economist and political scientist Alexander Ayhelkraut. In his monograph "Russia - raw globe. Natural resources as a basis for economic development and a strong state? ". The author has analyzed how the security of the country's natural resources is reflected in the system of governance and economic growth. He points out that the disease becomes stronger in Russia 1. However Russian prime-minister Dmitry Medvedev stated that now the "Dutch disease" has weakened. The result was the growth of competitiveness and, therefore, production in some industries. Among these industries premier called metallurgy, chemical industry, industries producing products of mass consumption (food, clothing and shoes), agriculture, certain sub-sectors mechanical engineering and pharmaceuticals. 2 Interconnection rates of development of the economy and the level of security of natural country governmental resources is largely studied by scientists. "Dutch disease" - it is a negative effect, which manifests itself as a result of the real appreciation of the national currency as a result of the boom in a particular sector of the economy. Most often, the boom can be caused by the rise in raw materials, such as oil prices. The growth of revenue to the country of dollars in revenue leads to the fact that the rate of national currency becomes more expensive. "Dutch disease" progresses in Russia: the manufacturing sector lags behind the development is not so much on the mining, but on the service sector, which is largely accumulated resource rents. In this paper we analyzed the economic model which describes how GDP during the "Dutch disease" is affected by federal budget income, exports of crude oil and relation of USD/RUB. There are 3 exogenous (independent) variables in 1 Ayhelkraut S. Russia - raw power. Natural resources as a basis for economic development and a strong state? Marburg RIA News. Medvedev: "Dutch disease" in Russia weakens [Electronic resource]. URL 3

4 the model: federal budget income exports of crude oil, relation of USD/RUB and 1 endogenous (dependent) variable GDP. The specification of the model is the following: {Y = C(1) + C(2) X1 + C(3) X2 + C(4) X3 Where Y GDP (index in base equivalent), X1 Federal budget income (billions of Russian RUB), X2 exports of crude oil (millions of US$), X3 currency relation USD/RUB. According to calculations we obtain the following result: Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) Determinant residual covariance 1.68E+13 Equation: Y=C(1)+C(2)*X1+C(3)*X2+C(4)*X3 Instruments: X3 X4 X5 C Observations: 16 R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat Value of the multiple coefficient of determination R 2 =0,98 shows that 98 % of total deviation of GDP is explained by the variation of federal budget income, exports of crude oil and in relation of USD/RUB. Such a high value of the R 2 is 4

5 good, it is close to 1 (maximumr 2 = 1). This means that selected factors influence the given model significantly. 3 Conclusion To date, the study and research of display of "Dutch disease" in Russia is especially relevant, as the country increases every year the level of oil and gas production, which in turn has an impact on the economy. The problem of minimizing the negative consequences of the influx of petrodollars into the Russian economy in recent years is relevant in order to achieve the structural and technological balance of the economy. From its successful solutions depend on the possibility of using the favorable foreign trade conditions for the transition to economic recovery in Russia based on the results of technological progress. After the analysis of the model in Russia, using the data for Russia for the period , the following conclusion takes place: this current model is really suitable for Russia and can be used to analyze GDP and how it is determined by federal budget income, exports of crude oil and relation of USD/RUB during the "Dutch disease". Russian economy significantly depends on oil sphere, especially on the quantity of exported oil. However fluctuations in USD/RUB relation also important to pay attention to. According to the Bank of International Settlements, the nominal effective exchange rate of the ruble over the same period decreased in Russia by about 17%, while almost all countries in terms of the pace of real appreciation of the nominal contrary greatly strengthened. These data show obvious problems in the exchange rate and the anti-inflationary policy of the Russian Federation, namely an inadequate understanding of the nature of inflation taking place in Russia. So we can see that is model is suitable for Russia. 3 I.V.Tregub. Mathematical models of economic systems dynamics: Monography. M.: Finance Academy, p. 5

6 List of references 1. Ayhelkraut S. Russia - raw power. Natural resources as a basis for economic development and a strong state? Marburg RIA News. Medvedev: "Dutch disease" in Russia weakens [Electronic resource]. URL 3. I.V.Tregub. Mathematical models of economic systems dynamics: Monography. M.: Finance Academy, p. 4. Natanova SM, NS Trump "Dutch disease" - a negative consequence of the regulation of the economy and its interpretation in the development of Russia, Economy and Life. Diseases and pitfalls of modern economy [Electronic resource]. URL 6