impact assessment framework S. Mohanty, A. Arouna and R. Labarta

Transcription

1 RICE: Second phase CGIAR Research Program on Rice impact assessment framework S. Mohanty, A. Arouna and R. Labarta

2 FP1: Impact and equity acceleration CoA1:5 Adoption and impact assessment CoA1:3 Collective innovation for scaling-out CoA1:4 Seed delivery systems FP3: Sustainable farming systems Farming system analysis Intensification and mechanization Farm diversification FP2: Rice value chain upgrading Market research Value-chain services Improved postharvest systems Processing and novel products FP5: New rice varieties Harnessing rice diversity Precision breeding Intensive and irrigated systems Unfavorable ecosystems Grain quality and nutrition C 4 Rice FP4: Global Rice Array Worldwide field laboratory Global phenotyping Biotic rice-plant interactions Discovery of genomic associations Big Data integration platform CoA1.6: Monitoring, evaluation, learning CoA1:1 Foresight and targeting CoA1:2 Gender and youth F ig. 8. R I C E f l a g s h i p p r o j e c t s a n d c l u s t e r s o f a c t i v i t y.

3 Funding for IA RICE CRP: Ex-post Impact assessment: min. $500K ME&L: min. $500K Gender: min. $500K Center resources: Ex-post IA: $500K Project funding: Ex-post IA: $750K External funding $300K Total funding: nearly $2 million annually

4 CRP Level Harmonization and Capacity Building Annual IA Meeting (4 th annual meeting will be held in Sept 2016). 1. Discuss methodological issues (M&E and IA) 2. Share experiences and good practice 3. Identify key technologies for ex-post impact assessment Capacity Building and Training RCT Training, Jan 16-20, 2016 by Berkeley Team(Elisabeth Sadoulet) Productivity and efficiency analysis, July 13-19, 2016 by Subal Kumbakar

5 American Economic Review, 106(6): 2016 The use of flood tolerant varieties enhance agricultural productivity by causing farmers to re-optimize their production practices.

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7 Eyes in the Sky Using Satellite Technology to Track Rice Production Rice Crop Condition Disaster Management Crop Insurance High efficiency and accuracy for crop Insurance

8 REDUCED P O V E R T Y S R F T A R G E T S m i l l i o n Farm households with improved practices RICE 17 million S R F T A R G E T S 3 5 m i l l i o n People out of poverty RICE 14 million I M P R O V E D F O O D A N D N U T R I T I O N S E C U R I T Y F O R H E A L T H I M P R O V E D N A T U R A L R E S O U R C E S S Y S T E M S AND E C O S Y S T E M S E R V I C E S S R F T A R G E T S 3 0 m i l l i o n People out of hunger RICE 17 million S R F T A R G E T S 5 % i m p r o v e d Water and nutrient use efficiency RICE 5% S R F T A R G E T S m i l l i o n People out malnutrition RICE 8 million S R F T A R G E T S M t C O 2 - eq Less emission per year RICE 12 Mt CO 2 -eq

9 Objective of IA of RICE The specific objectives are: 1. Document and monitor diffusion and adoption rates and impact of elite germplasm and non-germplasm innovations 2. Estimate household-level and aggregate impact of all rice innovations on SRF IDO and SDG indicators 3. Conduct adoption and impact surveys on regular basis 4. Disaggregate the adoption analysis and impact over gender and age 5. Develop modern tools and methods including actual measurement, geographic information system and panel data to assess impact

10 IA framework The framework of the impact assessment will include: 1. Impact assessment will take into account elite and high performing innovations 2. Impact surveys will take into account estimation of householdlevel and aggregate-level 3. Impact surveys will be planned every three years. Adoption and monitoring surveys of promising innovations will be organized every year. Annual data collection will help to panel data for robust estimation of impact.

11 IA framework 4. Data will be collected inside and outside of the hubs or action sites 5. Estimation of impact on various welfare and environmental outcomes (SRF IDO and SDG indicators) 6. Both ex-post and ex-ante impact survey will be conducted 7. Enhance capacity of partners in impact assessment

12 IA Methodology Survey will continue to dominate to collect preferences/responses of value chain actors to have panel data Randomized control trials (RCT) will be used more and more to measure the effectiveness of interventions Experimental auction and experimental choice will be used for elicitation of preference Adoption studies will combine farm household survey with DNA fingerprinting and remote sensing to improve the accuracy and timeliness of the information Actual measurement will be mainly used for accuracy of estimation

13 Four methods: 1. List frame: a. Interview b. Actual measurment 2. Area frame (Dot sampling): a. Interview b. Actual measurment IA Methodology Area Actual measurement Number of dots/ Measured Interview Collected Yield Measured Estimated Production Estimated Collected

14 IA Methodology: case of Uganda Comparison of methods pre-tested List frame method Area frame method (Dot sampling) Item Measurem ent (a) Intervie w (b) Difference (c=a-b) Measuremen t (a) Interview (b) Difference (c=a-b) Area (ha) Production (Ton) Yield (Ton/ha) * *** ***

15 Thank You