NOWCASTING OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT OF JAPAN [ID 269]
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1 NOWCASTING OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT OF JAPAN [ID 269] Nariyasu Yamasawa,Atomi University June 30th 2014
2 Contents Contents 1 Nowcasting of Japan s 47 Prefectures Monthly GRP 1 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake
3 Japanese Government release Gross Regional Product(Here after GRP) of 47 prefectures yearly,but timing is very late. So I tried to make monthly GRP to capture the current economic status as fast as possible It can be released at the same timing of National GDP, and moreover it is monthly It can apply various analysis. In this presentation I introduce an application to the Great East Japan Earthquake
4 Japanese Government release Gross Regional Product(Here after GRP) of 47 prefectures yearly,but timing is very late. So I tried to make monthly GRP to capture the current economic status as fast as possible It can be released at the same timing of National GDP, and moreover it is monthly It can apply various analysis. In this presentation I introduce an application to the Great East Japan Earthquake
5 Japanese Government release Gross Regional Product(Here after GRP) of 47 prefectures yearly,but timing is very late. So I tried to make monthly GRP to capture the current economic status as fast as possible It can be released at the same timing of National GDP, and moreover it is monthly It can apply various analysis. In this presentation I introduce an application to the Great East Japan Earthquake
6 Japanese Government release Gross Regional Product(Here after GRP) of 47 prefectures yearly,but timing is very late. So I tried to make monthly GRP to capture the current economic status as fast as possible It can be released at the same timing of National GDP, and moreover it is monthly It can apply various analysis. In this presentation I introduce an application to the Great East Japan Earthquake
7 Map of Japan and 47 prefectures
8 About Release Timing In Japan National GDP is released quarterly about 45 days after the period end. Each 47 local government makes each annual GRP. but it takes 2years and 3 months to make it public. Mainly because it takes time to compile the detail company production data.
9 About Release Timing In Japan National GDP is released quarterly about 45 days after the period end. Each 47 local government makes each annual GRP. but it takes 2years and 3 months to make it public. Mainly because it takes time to compile the detail company production data.
10 About Release Timing In Japan National GDP is released quarterly about 45 days after the period end. Each 47 local government makes each annual GRP. but it takes 2years and 3 months to make it public. Mainly because it takes time to compile the detail company production data.
11 Release Timing of Gross Regional Product
12 Japan s 47 Prefectures Monthly GRP
13 47 Prefectures monthly GDP I tried to estimate monthly GRP from expenditure side GRP=Private Consumption+Private Residential Investment+ Private Equipment Investment+ Public Investment +Government Consumption +Net Export The cabinet office developed 47 prefectures monthly expenditure index. But there are no Government Consumption and Net Export I made the 2 components
14 47 Prefectures monthly GDP I tried to estimate monthly GRP from expenditure side GRP=Private Consumption+Private Residential Investment+ Private Equipment Investment+ Public Investment +Government Consumption +Net Export The cabinet office developed 47 prefectures monthly expenditure index. But there are no Government Consumption and Net Export I made the 2 components
15 47 Prefectures monthly GDP I tried to estimate monthly GRP from expenditure side GRP=Private Consumption+Private Residential Investment+ Private Equipment Investment+ Public Investment +Government Consumption +Net Export The cabinet office developed 47 prefectures monthly expenditure index. But there are no Government Consumption and Net Export I made the 2 components
16 47 Prefectures monthly GDP I tried to estimate monthly GRP from expenditure side GRP=Private Consumption+Private Residential Investment+ Private Equipment Investment+ Public Investment +Government Consumption +Net Export The cabinet office developed 47 prefectures monthly expenditure index. But there are no Government Consumption and Net Export I made the 2 components
17 47 Prefectures monthly GDP I tried to estimate monthly GRP from expenditure side GRP=Private Consumption+Private Residential Investment+ Private Equipment Investment+ Public Investment +Government Consumption +Net Export The cabinet office developed 47 prefectures monthly expenditure index. But there are no Government Consumption and Net Export I made the 2 components
18 Regional Domestic Expenditure Index Japanese Cabinet Office release Regional Domestic Expenditure Index(RDEI) Released from May 2012 monthly,47 prefectures No Government Final Consumption, Export and Import
19 Regional Domestic Expenditure Index Japanese Cabinet Office release Regional Domestic Expenditure Index(RDEI) Released from May 2012 monthly,47 prefectures No Government Final Consumption, Export and Import
20 Regional Domestic Expenditure Index Japanese Cabinet Office release Regional Domestic Expenditure Index(RDEI) Released from May 2012 monthly,47 prefectures No Government Final Consumption, Export and Import
21 Regional Domestic Expenditure Index Japanese Cabinet Office release Regional Domestic Expenditure Index(RDEI) Released from May 2012 monthly,47 prefectures No Government Final Consumption, Export and Import
22 RDEI Tanabe et.al 2012 Estimation of RDEI
23 RDEI Estimation method1 Private Consumption divided by 44 sorts of consumption, calculating by multiplying percent change by the reference point (2009 year average) Private Residential Investment Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism statistics of construction starts Private Fixed Investment Estemated by Building, Construction, Machinery, Aircraft, Motor Vehicle, other transportation machinery
24 RDEI Estimation method2 Public Investment Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism statistics of construction order by 47 prefectures Real data make real data by deflater change to amount base data is index(2005=100). We need to change amount base.
25 Government Final Consumption Government Final Consumption consist of originally Government Final Consumption and actual final consumption of households(transfer from Government to Household) Originally Final Consumption is Expenditure of Government such as labor cost, goods cost and maintenance cost Actual final consumption of household is mainly medical expenditure and care for aged people expenditure
26 Government Final Consumption Government Final Consumption consist of originally Government Final Consumption and actual final consumption of households(transfer from Government to Household) Originally Final Consumption is Expenditure of Government such as labor cost, goods cost and maintenance cost Actual final consumption of household is mainly medical expenditure and care for aged people expenditure
27 Government Final Consumption Government Final Consumption consist of originally Government Final Consumption and actual final consumption of households(transfer from Government to Household) Originally Final Consumption is Expenditure of Government such as labor cost, goods cost and maintenance cost Actual final consumption of household is mainly medical expenditure and care for aged people expenditure
28 Estimation Result of Government Final Consumption governmentconsumption = α + β 1 governmentexpenditure + β 2 medical1 + β 3 medical2 + β 4 careexpenditure medical1 is transfer from government to house hold of medical insurance for employees medical2 is transfer from government to house hold of medical insurance for general people medical = medical1+medical2
29 Estimation Result of Government Final Consumption governmentconsumption = α + β 1 governmentexpenditure + β 2 medical1 + β 3 medical2 + β 4 careexpenditure medical1 is transfer from government to house hold of medical insurance for employees medical2 is transfer from government to house hold of medical insurance for general people medical = medical1+medical2
30 Estimation Result of Government Final Consumption governmentconsumption = α + β 1 governmentexpenditure + β 2 medical1 + β 3 medical2 + β 4 careexpenditure medical1 is transfer from government to house hold of medical insurance for employees medical2 is transfer from government to house hold of medical insurance for general people medical = medical1+medical2
31 Estimation Result of Government Final Consumption
32 Net Export Many prefecture release only net export We don t have export and import data In this estimation, Dependent variable is net export explanation variables are regional demand(private consumption+private residence investment etc.), IIP(national industrial index of production) as a proxy of external demand and foreign exchange rate
33 Net Export Many prefecture release only net export We don t have export and import data In this estimation, Dependent variable is net export explanation variables are regional demand(private consumption+private residence investment etc.), IIP(national industrial index of production) as a proxy of external demand and foreign exchange rate
34 Net Export Many prefecture release only net export We don t have export and import data In this estimation, Dependent variable is net export explanation variables are regional demand(private consumption+private residence investment etc.), IIP(national industrial index of production) as a proxy of external demand and foreign exchange rate
35 Net Export Many prefecture release only net export We don t have export and import data In this estimation, Dependent variable is net export explanation variables are regional demand(private consumption+private residence investment etc.), IIP(national industrial index of production) as a proxy of external demand and foreign exchange rate
36 Net Export Estimation Result NetExport = α + β 1 RegionalExpenditure + β 2 IIP + β 3 ForeignExchangeRate
37 Iwate Prefecture GRP
38 Miyagi Prefecture GRP
39 Fukushima Prefecture GRP
40 Component of Iwate GRP
41 Component of Miyagi GRP
42 Component of Fukushima GRP
43 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Application to Great East Japan Earthquake I measured indirect loss and reconstruction demand. Using 47 prefectures monthly GRP especially 3 earthquake stricken prefectures
44 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake About Great East Japan Earthquake Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11,2011, Magnitude 9.0 and an Intensity of 7 in Miyagi The dead:16 thousands people, The missing : 3 thousands people, completely destroyed residence 130 thousands, Partly destroyed residence: 240 thousands direct loss is 16 trillion and 900 billion yen(169billion dollar) estimated by Cabinet office on July 24,2011
45 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake About Great East Japan Earthquake Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11,2011, Magnitude 9.0 and an Intensity of 7 in Miyagi The dead:16 thousands people, The missing : 3 thousands people, completely destroyed residence 130 thousands, Partly destroyed residence: 240 thousands direct loss is 16 trillion and 900 billion yen(169billion dollar) estimated by Cabinet office on July 24,2011
46 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake About Great East Japan Earthquake Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11,2011, Magnitude 9.0 and an Intensity of 7 in Miyagi The dead:16 thousands people, The missing : 3 thousands people, completely destroyed residence 130 thousands, Partly destroyed residence: 240 thousands direct loss is 16 trillion and 900 billion yen(169billion dollar) estimated by Cabinet office on July 24,2011
47 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Economics of Natural Desaster
48 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake literature Cavallo and Noy(2009) natural disaster have an negative impact on short term, long-run effect of natural disasters is inconclusive Hallegatte and Przyluski(2010) after lost output because of capital losses additional output because of reconstruction Fujiki and Hisao(2013) mesuring the net economic impact of the 1996 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake
49 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake literature Cavallo and Noy(2009) natural disaster have an negative impact on short term, long-run effect of natural disasters is inconclusive Hallegatte and Przyluski(2010) after lost output because of capital losses additional output because of reconstruction Fujiki and Hisao(2013) mesuring the net economic impact of the 1996 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake
50 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake literature Cavallo and Noy(2009) natural disaster have an negative impact on short term, long-run effect of natural disasters is inconclusive Hallegatte and Przyluski(2010) after lost output because of capital losses additional output because of reconstruction Fujiki and Hisao(2013) mesuring the net economic impact of the 1996 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake
51 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake output after disaster Direct loss is the damage of Production Equipment and Residence. Indirect loss is economic loss that is affected by the direct loss.
52 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Current Status of Post-Disaster Recovery
53 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Indirect Loss Aftermath of the 3.11 Disaster: An Analytical Evaluation Using Official Statistics(2012) Higuchi et. al,cabinet office There are many data no indirect loss estimation There are several methods of measuring indirect loss method : Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012), application :Fujiki and Hsiao(2013)
54 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Indirect Loss Aftermath of the 3.11 Disaster: An Analytical Evaluation Using Official Statistics(2012) Higuchi et. al,cabinet office There are many data no indirect loss estimation There are several methods of measuring indirect loss method : Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012), application :Fujiki and Hsiao(2013)
55 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Indirect Loss Aftermath of the 3.11 Disaster: An Analytical Evaluation Using Official Statistics(2012) Higuchi et. al,cabinet office There are many data no indirect loss estimation There are several methods of measuring indirect loss method : Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012), application :Fujiki and Hsiao(2013)
56 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Indirect Loss Aftermath of the 3.11 Disaster: An Analytical Evaluation Using Official Statistics(2012) Higuchi et. al,cabinet office There are many data no indirect loss estimation There are several methods of measuring indirect loss method : Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012), application :Fujiki and Hsiao(2013)
57 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012) Estimation before disaster y 1t = a + b y 0t Counterfactual data estimation y 0 1t = a + b y 0t y 0 1t counterfactual(no disaster) data of y 1t y 0t actual data which was not stricken the disaster
58 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012) Estimation before disaster y 1t = a + b y 0t Counterfactual data estimation y 0 1t = a + b y 0t y 0 1t counterfactual(no disaster) data of y 1t y 0t actual data which was not stricken the disaster
59 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012) Estimation before disaster y 1t = a + b y 0t Counterfactual data estimation y 0 1t = a + b y 0t y 0 1t counterfactual(no disaster) data of y 1t y 0t actual data which was not stricken the disaster
60 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012) measuring correlation between damaged 3 prefecture(iwate,miyagi and Fukushina) and the rest of prefectures select some prefectures that is correlated coefficient is positive and significant Iwate related to Kagoshima,Tottori,Fukui and Ehime, Miyagi related to Aichi and Tottori,Fukushima related to Gifu,Aichi,Ishikawa,Saitama
61 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012) measuring correlation between damaged 3 prefecture(iwate,miyagi and Fukushina) and the rest of prefectures select some prefectures that is correlated coefficient is positive and significant Iwate related to Kagoshima,Tottori,Fukui and Ehime, Miyagi related to Aichi and Tottori,Fukushima related to Gifu,Aichi,Ishikawa,Saitama
62 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012) measuring correlation between damaged 3 prefecture(iwate,miyagi and Fukushina) and the rest of prefectures select some prefectures that is correlated coefficient is positive and significant Iwate related to Kagoshima,Tottori,Fukui and Ehime, Miyagi related to Aichi and Tottori,Fukushima related to Gifu,Aichi,Ishikawa,Saitama
63 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Hsiao, Ching and Wan(2012) measuring correlation between damaged 3 prefecture(iwate,miyagi and Fukushina) and the rest of prefectures select some prefectures that is correlated coefficient is positive and significant Iwate related to Kagoshima,Tottori,Fukui and Ehime, Miyagi related to Aichi and Tottori,Fukushima related to Gifu,Aichi,Ishikawa,Saitama
64 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake correlations between prefectures
65 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Estimation Result Iwate *Kagoshima+0.541*Tottori+0.347*Fukui+0.176*Ehime Miyagi *Aichi+1.592*Tottori Fukushima * Gifu 0.038* Aichi *Ishikawa *Saitama
66 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Iwate monthly GRP
67 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Miyagi monthly GRP
68 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Fukushima monthly GRP
69 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Size of reconstruction demand actual data is beyond the counter factual data after small reduction of production, reconstruction demand emerged but, reconstruction demand is still small
70 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Size of reconstruction demand actual data is beyond the counter factual data after small reduction of production, reconstruction demand emerged but, reconstruction demand is still small
71 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Size of reconstruction demand actual data is beyond the counter factual data after small reduction of production, reconstruction demand emerged but, reconstruction demand is still small
72 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Size of Reconstruction demand
73 Application to Great East Japan Earthquake Accumulated Reconstruction demand
74 conclusion conclusion In this paper, I made a monthly GDP for 47 prefectures. I estimate government consumption and net export. I estimate the influence of Great East Japan Earthquake. I use monthly GDP and counterfactual data. Accumulated reconstruction demand is about 4 trillion yen(40 billion dollar). by the end of 2013,
75 conclusion conclusion In this paper, I made a monthly GDP for 47 prefectures. I estimate government consumption and net export. I estimate the influence of Great East Japan Earthquake. I use monthly GDP and counterfactual data. Accumulated reconstruction demand is about 4 trillion yen(40 billion dollar). by the end of 2013,
76 conclusion conclusion In this paper, I made a monthly GDP for 47 prefectures. I estimate government consumption and net export. I estimate the influence of Great East Japan Earthquake. I use monthly GDP and counterfactual data. Accumulated reconstruction demand is about 4 trillion yen(40 billion dollar). by the end of 2013,
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