Session 3: Forecasting the Benefits - Tool Kit

Transcription

1 Session 3: Forecasting the Benefits - Tool Kit Canals & River Restoration Workshop Why the blue and the green matter 23 rd April 2016 Raymond MacIntyre

2 Introduction Relevant Experience Key Projects: o Helix/ Kelpies Business Plan o Business Case for the Reopening of the Monmouthshire & Brecon Canal o Monitored Scottish Canal network since 2004

3 Presentation Format Objectives & Key Requirements Methodology & Data Sources Inputs - User Interface Outputs Headline Impacts Benefits & Value Implementation Feedback & Questions

4 Objectives Tool for non-specialists to help estimate: o restoration project costs o economic and social benefits Key requirements o User friendly o Reliable outputs o Flexibility to local circumstances o Meaningful indicators

5 Methodology Draws on benchmark methodologies & guidance: o HM Treasury Green Book Guidance o WebTAG Unit A5.1 o CRT pricing schedules Accuracy o Regionalises/ specific info o Averages values

6 Data Sources Used in Model Costs Restoration Costs (canal) Construction Costs (wider impact) Source CRT Restoration Estimates for each restoration element (CRT 2016) Building Cost Information Services data (BCIS 2016 (PBA subscription)) Economic (Labour Market) GVA per head Experian Labour Market Data (Experian 2016 (PBA subscription) ) Household spending Experian Household Spending Statistics (Experian 2016, PBA Subscription) Employment densities Homes and Communities Agency 2015 Multipliers Tourism Visit England Tourism Statistics Department for Business Innovation and Skills Visit England Tourism Research: jobs and Growth Report (2013) Canal User Survey CRT Canal User Survey 2013 Canal User Profile Scottish Canals 2011 (c.750 responses)) Volunteers Volunteer match funding values Wales Council for Voluntary Action, Using volunteers time as match funding )

7 Inputs - User Interface USER INTERFACE LOCATION ACCESS AND GROUND CONSTRAINTS Region Constraints % Increase in Cost Estimate Please select Access Constraints Please select Location Typology Ground Conditions Please select Please select COSTS Infrastructure - Elements of Restoration Project Unit of Measurement VISITORS Size/No. of Units Cost Towpath Users - Current Use Access Method 1 Known Visits p.a. Please select 0 Or Locks Method 2 Estimated daily visitors Estimated Visits p.a. Please select 0 Weekday 0 Canal Channel Weekend 0 Please select 0 Total 0 0 Bank Protection Towpath Users - Future Use Please select 0 Uplift in visitor number from restoration project Please select Bridges Increase in visitors p.a. Please select 0 What is the proportion of new users that are: Don't know - use default Aqueducts Walkers Please select 0 Runners Culverts Cycling Please select 0 Others Embankments Boat Users - Current Use Please select 0 No. of boats p.a Cutting Average number of crusing trips 14.8 Please select 0 Average cruising trip length in days 4.4 Tunnel Boat Users - Future Use Please select 0 Uplift in number of cruising trips from the restoration project Please select Water Is a significant visitor destination nearby? Please select Please select 0 Additional Boat days 0 Environmental Improvements Volunteers Skilled Unskilled Please select 0 Volunteer hours

8 Outputs - Headline Impacts HEADLINE IMPACTS 1) Cost Calculator Value Total Area of canal restored (m2) 0 Total Length of canal restored (m) 0 Total costs 0 2a) Economic Impact - Construction Phase Value 3) Social & Environmental Impact Value Cost/ investement 0 Usage Person years of construction employment 0 New walkers 0 Training/ apprenticeships 0 New cyclists 0 GVA 0 New runners 0 Investment in Training & Skills 0 Monetised health benefit from: Walkers 0 2b) Economic Impact - Operational Phase Value Cycling 0 Operation Monetised benefit from new users (modal shifts) Gross Jobs (FTEs) 0 Congestion 0 Gross GVA 0 Infrastructure 0 Net Jobs (FTEs) 0 Accident 0 Net GVA 0 Local Air Quality 0 Employment Floorspace created (sq.m) 0 Noise 0 Housing (if applicable) Greenhouse Gases 0 Investment 0 Indirect Taxation 0 Units 0 Health 0 Residents 0 4) Volunteers Value Total Retail Expenditure 0 Skilled activities - hours 0 Total Comparison Expenditure 0 Skilled activities - costs 0 Total Convenience Expenditure 0 Unskilled activities - hours 0 Council Tax 0 Unskilled activities - costs 0 2c) Economic Impact - Boat Users Value Cost Benefit Indicators Additonal Spend 0 Cost per gross job 0 Leisure jobs supported 0 Cost per net job 0

9 Benefits & Value Refine project parameters and costs Guide ongoing development and inform sound decision making Identify the key benefits A practical tool for: Project development: scenario development Funding applications Community support Political backing

10 Implementation CRT will work with user groups Requires detail in advance to ensure accurate estimates User Guide Interpretation Guide Headline Impact Template

11 Feedback & Contributions Chesterfield Canal Society Testing CRT Wider Evaluation

12 Questions Please