Table 1. Republic of Congo: Quantitative Indicators, /

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Table 1. Republic of Congo: Quantitative Indicators, /"

Roderick Potter
5 years ago
Views:

1 Table 1. Republic of Congo: Quantitative Indicators, / (In billions of CFA francs; cumulative from the beginning of calendar year) December June September December Rev. Rev. Prog. Adj. Est. Prog. Adj. Est. Prog. Prog. Adj. Est. Prog. Prog. Adj. Est. Net claims of the banking system on the central government (ceiling) 2/ New medium- and long-term nonconcessional external debt (including leasing) contracted or guaranteed by the government (ceiling) 3/ 4/ New nonconcessional debt (including leasing) with an original maturity of less than one year (ceiling) 4/ 5/ Stock of external arrears 6/ 1,899 1,899 2,177 1,984 1,984 2,247 2,015 2,026 2,026 2, ,066 2,066 2,336 Net reduction in domestic arrears (floor) Primary fiscal balance (floor) 7/ Central government wage bill (ceiling) Memorandum items: Oil revenue Debt relief , Nonproject external financing External debt arrears change , / Data for 2001 are preliminary. 2/ The indicator will be adjusted downward for a smaller-than-projected reduction of external payments arrears, and for higher-than-expected nonproject external financing, debt relief, or oil revenue relative to the program targets. In the case of higher-than-projected oil revenue, discussions will be held concerning its use. The target will be adjusted upward for lower-than-anticipated debt relief, nonproject external financing, or oil revenue relative to the program targets (subject to observance of the Bank of Central African States statutory ceiling). In the case of lower-than-projected oil revenue, the upward adjustment is limited to CFAF 20 billion. 3/ Excluding rescheduling arrangements and disbursements from the Fund, but including debt with maturities of more than one year. 4/ Concessional debt is defined as debt with a grant element of at least 50 percent calculated on the basis of currency-specific discount rates, based on the OECD commercial interest reference rates (CIRRs). 5/ Excluding debt related to normal import transactions or petroleum exports. 6/ Adjusted relative to the program to reflect late interest on arrears in the amount of CFAF 382 billion. 7/ Defined as revenue excluding grants, minus noninterest current expenditures, capital expenditure, and net lending.

2 Table 2. Republic of Congo: Status of Structural Performance Indicators as of March 31, 2002 Measure Revised Schedule Status 1. Rehabilitation and reorganization of customs administration Customs audit Terms of reference, July 2001; audit to begin, September 2001 Audit to be completed by NTICCA. BIVAC: strengthening of import controls; submission of a monthly report to the Minister of Finance, with a copy to the IMF Program duration BIVAC reports for June through December 2001 received. ICS/SWIPCO monthly report on the BIVAC audit to the Minister of Finance, with a copy to the IMF Elimination of ad hoc exemptions; strict enforcement of legal and regulatory provisions governing exemptions Implementation of a system for verifying and monitoring production and exports of oil and wood 2. Rehabilitation and reorganization of the tax administration 3. Civil service reform Completion of audit of government employees Retirement of employees of pensionable age Program duration Program duration Monitoring of oil exports (BIVAC), July 2001; call for bids for wood exports, September 2001 Selection of the auditor, July 2001; audit, September 2001 July 2001 (on the basis of the results of the audit of civil service personnel) July-December 2001 The ICS/SWIPCO contract could not be finalized; BIVAC not currently audited. Exemptions are legal or contractual. However, waivers have been granted in exceptional circumstances (mainly to government agencies); control of existing exemptions (joint customseconomy-tax-planning committee) under way. Monitoring of oil exports (VERITAS) started in February Verification of wood exports not yet implemented. Audit to be completed by Eyra International. Audit of personnel and verification of the payroll roster completed. Civil service retirement age enforced.

3 Computerization of the civil service master file and preparation for linkage with the payroll file December 2001 Discussions are under way with French cooperation for the financing of the project. 4. Privatization Restructuring/privatization of the CAIC and BIDC banks; transfer of assets September 2001; December 2001 Distribution of oil products Adjustment of oil prices consistent with the memorandum of understanding and lifting of suspensive conditions, July- August 2001 SNDE (water utility) and SNE (electric utility) Finalization of the water and electricity codes and call for bids for the awarding of concession contracts, July 2001 ONPT (post and telecommunications) Approval of the law on the separation of the postal and telecommunications services, July 2001; setting up of management structures and drafting of a sectoral policy for the telecommunications sector, September 2001 Port of Pointe Noire and Port of Brazzaville CFCO (Congo-Ocean Railway)-- privatization program to be formulated Presentation of the text of the charter approved by the World Bank, September 2001 Definition of a strategy in consultation with the World Bank staff, December 2001 Agreement reached in December 2001 on the sale of the BIDC to the French bank Crédit Lyonnais. Negotiations with the French group Banques Populaires for the sale of the CAIC broke off in November 2001; discussions are under way with the BRED for technical assistance prior to the resumption of the privatization process. Law on oil distribution promulgated on November 19, 2001; current price structure will be maintained through mid-august 2002; lifting of the suspensive conditions planned by September Water and electricity codes finalized. Tenders issued in July 2001; management contract for SNDE awarded to Bi-Water in January 2002; effective transfer in June 2002; tenders for SNE were unsuccessful. Decisions regarding the dissolution and the creation of two new companies, the telecommunication services and the postal services and savings bank, issued in July Roundtable held in January 2002 in Paris to set the strategy and the time frame for the privatization of the telecommunications services scheduled for Charter for the Port of Point Noire approved in November Discussions held in Washington for the preselection of the candidates; tender under preparation.

4 Transfer of Cosmos, Palm Beach and Olympic Hotels Call for bids for transfer of the Méridien Hotel 5. Governance/transparency Implementation of an effective expenditure control and monitoring system Implementation of a system to generate expenditure data on a functional and commitment basis Strict observance of the principle of a single treasury account and no payments outside budgetary procedures Call for bids for the financial audit of the national oil company (SNPC) by an internationally recognized firm; submission of the audit report Presentation by oil companies of 2000 accounts certified by an external auditor in accordance with international standards September 2001 December 2001 Computerization of expenditure chain (budget-treasury computer link), December 2001 December 2001 Program duration August 2001; December 2001 December 2001 Olympic and Palm Beach Hotels are under lease contracts through 2004 and 2005, respectively; repair work necessary on the Cosmos Hotel prior to its sale. Tender was unsuccessful. Expenditure chain functioning properly; computerization under way. Existing classification needs to be adapted to the new accounting framework recommended by the OECD. Earmarked revenue (TSH, PID), with the exception of the maritime tax, subject to treasury control; part of oil revenues earmarked for oil-collateralized debt service and payment of public investment projects and 2000 accounts approved by the board of directors in December 2001; terms of reference of the external financial audit completed; tender to be issued soon. Preparations of accounts under way.

5 Table 3. Republic of Congo: Quantitative Indicators, / (In billions of CFA francs; cumulative from the beginning of calendar year) Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Est. Est. Prog. Prog. Prog. Net claims of the banking system on the central government (ceiling) 2/ New medium- and long-term nonconcessional external debt (including leasing) contracted or guaranteed by the government (ceiling) 3/ 4/ New nonconcessional debt (including leasing) with an original maturity of less than one year (ceiling) 4/ 5/ Stock of external arrears 6/ 2,336 2,496 2,433 2,467 Net reduction in domestic arrears (floor) Primary fiscal balance (floor) 7/ Central government wage bill (ceiling) Memorandum items: Oil revenue Debt relief Nonproject external financing External debt arrears change Petroleum price Brent (U.S. dollar per barrel) / Data for 2001 are preliminary. 2/ Excluding IMF credit. The indicator will be adjusted downward for smaller-than-projected payments of externa arrears, and for higher-than-expected oil revenue. The program oil revenue indicator will be adjusted upward by the ratio of the actual Brent price to the projected Brent price (U.S. dollars). 3/ Excluding rescheduling arrangements and disbursements from the Fund, but including debt with maturities of more than one year. 4/ Concessional debt is defined as debt with a grant element of at least 50 percent calculated on the basis of currency-specific discount rates, based on the OECD commercial interest reference rates (CIRRs). 5/ Excluding debt related to normal import transactions. 6/ The target will be adjusted downward to reflect higher-than-expected nonproject financing and debt relief, and upward for lower-than-expected nonproject financing and debt relief. 7/ Defined as revenue excluding grants, minus noninterest current expenditures, capital expenditure, and net lending, on a commitment basis.

6 Table 4. Republic of Congo: Structural Indicators, April-December 2002 Measure Submission by the national oil company (SNPC) of monthly reports to the government, in accordance with the Convention of June 29, 2001 Settlement of debt service on nonreschedulable debt and payment toward external arrears consistent with external debt payments projections in Table 6 Schedule Starting in April 2002 Starting in May 2002 Issuance of a decree creating a single import declaration form May 15, 2002 Selection of an international firm to conduct an independent, external audit of the financial accounts of the SNPC for 1999 to 2001 Preparation of fiscal tables consolidating the central government and the SNPC for 2000 and 2001 Early June 2002 June 2002 Start of the external financial audit of the SNPC July 2002 Adjustment of petroleum product prices consistent with the memorandum of understanding and lifting of the suspensive conditions Offering of new tender for the privatization of the CAIC (commercial bank) September 2002 September 2002 Submission of the SNPC audit report October 2002 Implementation of a system to generate expenditure data on a functional and commitment basis Completion of report evaluating the effectiveness of the Convention between the government and the SNPC Phasing out of practice of settling budget expenditures through the direct transfer of government revenue by oil companies Halting of the contracting of any form of oil-collateralized debt (new or refinanced) Monthly provision to the IMF staff of all information necessary for the monitoring of the program, consistent with the technical memorandum of November 2000 December 2002 December 2002 Continuously Continuously Continuously

7 Table 5. Republic of Congo: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, Est. Proj. (Annual percentage change) Production and prices GDP at constant prices Oil Non-oil GDP at current prices GDP deflator Consumer prices Yearly average End of period External sector Exports, f.o.b Imports, f.o.b Export volume Import volume Terms of trade (deterioration - ) Nominal effective exchange rate Real effective exchange rate Central government finances Total revenue Oil revenue Non-oil revenue Total expenditure Current Capital (In percent of beginning-of-period broad money, unless otherwise indicated) Money and credit Net domestic assets Domestic credit Central government Credit to the economy Broad money Velocity of broad money (non-oil; GDP/average M2) (In percent of GDP) Investment and saving 1/ Gross national saving Government Other Gross investment Government Other Central government finances Total revenue Total expenditure Overall balance (deficit, commitment) Primary balance (deficit-) External sector 1/ Current account Overall balance of payments External public debt (end of period)

8 Net transfer of resources (In percent of exports of goods and services) External public debt service Before debt relief After debt relief External public debt (In percent of total government revenue, excluding grants) External public debt service Before debt relief After debt relief External public debt , (In billions of CFA francs, unless otherwise indicated) Gross official foreign reserves In months of imports, c.i.f Nominal GDP 1, , , , , ,896.5 Exchange rate; CFA francs per U.S. dollar (average) World oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel) Oil production (in millions of barrels) Sources: Congolese authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ Saving and investment data are highly preliminary. Balance of payments estimates are being revised extensively, with the help of Fund technical assistance.

9 Table 6. Republic of Congo: Central Government Operations, (In billions of CFA francs) Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Prog. Act. Rev. Prel. Est.1/ Est. Projections Revenue and grants Revenue Oil revenue Non-oil revenue Grants Expenditure and net lending Current expenditure Wage bill Other current expenditure Local authorities Interest Capital expenditure Domestically financed Externally financed Primary balance Balance, commitment basis Excluding grants Change in arrears External Domestic Balance, cash basis Financing Foreign (net) Drawings Project financing Nonproject financing Amortization due Rescheduling 2/ Debt cancellation

10 Domestic (net) Banking system (net) Nonbank financing Sale of assets Cost of financial sector reform Bond issues Cost of structural reforms Exceptional oil receipts Domestic debt and other Of which amortization Other Residual financing gap 3/ Memorandum items: GDP (billions of CFA francs) 1, , , , , ,896.5 Oil 1, , , , , Non-oil External debt payments (excluding IMF) Of which: collateralized debt Sources: Congolese authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ Preliminary estimates for the 2001 Article IV consultation (SM/02/6, 1/4/02). 2/ Excludes the impact of oil-collateralized debt-restructuring operations concluded in June 2000 and September / The negative financing gap in 2001 reflects the discrepancy between the central government accounts and the change in government position vis-à-vis the banking system. The authorities are working on the reconciliation of the relevant accounts.

11 Table 7. Republic of Congo: Monetary Survey, Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Net foreign assets Central bank Deposit money banks Net domestic assets Net domestic credit Net credit to the public sector Net credit to the government Central bank Deposit money banks Claims on public agencies, net Credit to the economy Other items, net Broad money Currency outside banks Demand deposits Time deposits Net foreign assets Net domestic assets Net domestic credit Net credit to the government Credit to the economy Broad money Memorandum items: Velocity Total GDP/average M Non-oil GDP/average M Non-oil GDP/end-period M Total GDP growth (annual percentage change) Non-oil GDP growth (annual percentage change) Credit to the economy/non-oil GDP (percent) Sources: Bank of Central African States; and Fund staff calculations.

12 Table 8. Republic of Congo: Balance of Payments, (In billions of CFA francs) Est. Prel. Proj. Current account Balance of goods and services Trade balance , , ,014.4 Exports, f.o.b , , ,492.4 Oil sector , , ,381.7 Non-oil sector Imports, f.o.b Oil sector Government Non-oil private sector Balance of services Oil sector Non-oil sector Income Labor income Investment income Of which : interest on public debt Current transfers (net) Private Public Of which : technical assistance Capital account Official grants Debt cancellation and other Financial account Direct investment (net) Of which : oil sector

13 Portfolio investment Other investment Medium and long term Public sector Drawings Project Program Amortization Net change in arrears Debt rescheduling Private sector Oil sector Non-oil sector Short term Of which : commercial banks Errors and omissions Overall balance of payments Financing Reserve financing IMF (net) Purchases Repurchases Other reserves Sources: Bank of Central African States; and Fund staff estimates.

14 Table 9. Republic of Congo: External Debt Outstanding and Scheduled Debt Service, Estimate Projections (In billions of CFA francs) Total medium- and long-term debt outstanding. 3, , , , , , , ,329.4 Of which Arrears 1, , , , Total medium- and long-term debt outstanding,excluding IMF 3, , , , , , , ,329.4 Multilateral Paris Club creditors 1, , , , , , , Other official creditors Commercial banks Collateralized debt Other private creditors Outstanding IMF credit Debt service due Principal Interest Multilateral (including IMF) Of which IMF Bilateral Paris Club pre-cutoff date Paris Club post-cutoff date Deferral of post-cutoff arrears Non-Paris Club creditors Commercial banks Collateralized debt Suppliers' credits Debt service on new borrowing Debt service on financing gap or arrears Debt rescheduling 1/ Debt service Principal Interest Arrears Debt cancellation 1/ , Debt service Principal Interest Arrears , Debt-service due after debt relief Principal Interest Memorandum items: (Ratios in percent)

15 External public debt/gdp Including IMF Excluding IMF External public debt/exports Including IMF Excluding IMF Debt-service ratio (in percent of exports of goods and services) Before relief Principal Interest After relief Principal Interest Debt-service payments/ government receipts Before relief After relief Debt-service payments/non-oil GDP Before relief After relief Net transfer of resources / GDP Sources: Congolese authorities and Fund staff estimates. 1/ After taking account, for illustrative purposes, from 2003 onward, the impact of debt relief on eligible arrea and current maturities.

Est. Main indicators. Primary fiscal balance (floor) 1/ 2/

Est. Main indicators. Primary fiscal balance (floor) 1/ 2/ Table 1. Republic of Congo: Quantitative Indicators Under the Staff-Monitored Program (January-June, 2004) (In billions of CFA francs, unless otherwise indicated; cumulative from January) End-March Adjust.