BANK LENDING SURVEY (BLS) 1

Transcription

1 CENTRAL BANK OF CYPRUS EUROSYSTEM BANK LENDING SURVEY (BLS) 1 April 18 Executive summary 2 Loan supply (credit standards) Credit standards for to enterprises and households in Cyprus remained unchanged in compared with 17Q4. In the euro area, credit standards for to both enterprises and to households for housing purchases were considerably eased, while credit standards for households for consumption and other lending purposes were eased for the period under review. According to the expectations of participating domestic banks for, credit standards in Cyprus are expected to remain unchanged for all loan categories. As for the euro area, credit standards for to enterprises and households are expected to ease further in. Loan demand Net loan demand by both enterprises and households in Cyprus increased further in, in line with robust domestic economic activity, the small increase in wages, the supply of new loan contracts as well as the historically low domestic lending interest rates. Similarly, an increase in net loan demand was also recorded by all loan categories in the euro area. In participating banks expect a further increase in net loan demand by enterprises and households in both Cyprus and the euro area. Expectations of a further increase in net loan demand in Cyprus are perceived to be a signal for robust growth of the Cyprus economy in the quarters to come. Summary of BLS results April 18 Credit standards for Enterprises Households Unchanged (expectations) Unchanged - Housing Unchanged Unchanged - Consumer credit and other lending Demand for Enterprises Households Cyprus Easing (considerably) Easing (considerably) (expectations) Easing Easing Unchanged Unchanged Easing Easing Increase Increase Increase Increase - Housing Increase Increase Increase Increase - Consumer credit and other lending Euro area Increase Increase Increase Increase Note: The above results list the changes that occurred in the last three months (in this case ) and the changes that are expected for the next three months (i.e. ). The measure used for the statistical analysis of this research is the diffusion index. For comparison purposes and further analysis, Charts 1-6 illustrate the trend in developments in credit standards, terms and conditions as well as net demand for by enterprises and households in both Cyprus and the euro area. Appendices 1-3 provide further background information. 1 This is an abbreviated translation of the original Greek version. 2 More detailed analysis of the results of the Bank Lending Survey for the euro area is available at:

2 CENTRAL BANK OF CYPRUS EUROSYSTEM 1. Loans or credit lines to enterprises CHART 1 Credit standards: to enterprises CHART 2 Demand: to enterprises Cyprus - realised euro area - expected Cyprus - expected euro area - realised Cyprus - realised Cyprus - expected euro area - realised euro area - expected "tightening" - "easing" Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 2. Loans to households CHART 3 Credit standards: to households for house purchase CHART 4 Demand: to households for house purchase Q1 Cyprus - realised euro area - realised euro area - expected Cyprus - expected "tightening" "easing" 14Q2 17Q4 17Q3 17Q2 17Q1 16Q4 16Q3 16Q2 16Q1 15Q4 15Q3 15Q2 15Q1 14Q4 14Q Q4 17Q3 17Q2 17Q1 16Q4 16Q3 16Q2 16Q1 15Q4 15Q3 15Q2 15Q1 14Q4 14Q3 14Q2 14Q1 Cyprus - realised Cyprus - expected euro area - realised euro area - expected CHART 5 Credit standards: to households for consumer credit and other lending CHART 6Demand: to households for consumer credit and other lending Q1 "tightening" "easing" 14Q2 Cyprus - realised euro area - expected Cyprus - expected euro area - realised 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q Q1 14Q2 14Q3 Cyprus - realised Cyprus - expected euro area - realised euro area - expected 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4

3 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Bank Lending Survey April 18 Appendix 1. Loans or credit lines to enterprises from MFI in Cyprus (diffusion index) (A) Supply - Main factors affecting credit standards as applied to the approval of or credit lines to enterprises Credit standards "tightening" "easing" expectations Costs related to banks' capital position Ability to access market financing Banks' liquidity position Competition from other banks Competition from non-banks Competition from market financing General economic situation and outlook Industry or firm-specific outlook Risk on the collateral demanded Banks' risk tolerance (B) Supply - Terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to enterprises 6 Overall 6 Banks' margin on average 6 Banks' margin on riskier 6 Non-interest rate charges 6 Size of the loan or credit line 6 Collateral requirements 6 Loan covenants 6 Maturity Main factors affecting terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to enterprises Cost of funds and balance sheet constraints Pressure from competition Perception of risk Bank's risk tolerance 3

4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Bank Lending Survey April 18 (C) Demand - Main factors affecting the demand for or credit lines to enterprises Demand Expectations Fixed investment Inventories and working capital Mergers/acquisitions and corporate restructuring General level of interest rates Debt restructuring Internal financing Loans from other banks Loans from non-banks Issuance of debt securities Issuance of equity Note: In those cases where no bar is evident in the graph, the diffusion index is for the respective quarter implying; (1) no change was recorded compared with the previous quarter; (2) the banks responses cancel each other out; or (3) the banks responded by stating N/A (not applicable). 4

5 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Bank Lending Survey April 18 Appendix 2. Loans to households for house purchase from MFI in Cyprus (diffusion index) (A) Supply - Main factors affecting credit standards as applied to the approval of to households for house purchase 6 - CR EDIT STANDARDS ''tightening" "easing" EXPEC TATIONS 6 - Cost of funds and balance sheet constraints 6 - Competition from other banks 6 - Competition from nonbanks 6 - General economic situation and outlook Housing market prospects Borrower's creditworthiness 6 - Banks' risk tolerance (B) Supply - Terms and conditions for approving to households for house purchase Overall Banks' margin on average Banks' margin on riskier Collateral requirements Loan to value ratio Other loan size limits Maturity Non-interest rate charges Main factors affecting terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to households for house purchase Cost of funds and balance sheet constraints Pressure from competition Perception of risk Bank's risk tolerance

6 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Bank Lending Survey April 18 (C) Demand - Main factors affecting the demand for by households for house purchase DEMAND EXPEC TATIONS Housing market prospects Consumer confidence General level of interest rates Debt refinancing/restructuring and renegotiation Regulatory and fiscal regime of housing markets Internal finance out of savings/down payment Loans from other banks Other sources of finance Note: In those cases where no bar is evident in the graph, the diffusion index is for the respective quarter implying; (1) no change was recorded compared with the previous quarter; (2) the banks responses cancel each other out; or (3) the banks responded by stating N/A (not applicable). 6

7 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Bank Lending Survey April 18 Appendix 3. Loans to households for consumer credit and other lending from MFI in Cyprus (diffusion index) (A) Supply - Main factors affecting credit standards as applied to the approval of to households for consumer credit and other lendi ng CREDIT STANDARDS EXPECTATIONS Cost of funds and balance sheet constraints Competition from other banks Competition from nonbanks General economic situation and outlook Creditworthiness of consumers Risk on the collateral demanded Banks' risk tolerance ''tightening" ''easing" (B) Supply - Terms and conditions for approving to households for consumer credit and other lending Overall Banks' margin on average Banks' margin on riskier Collateral requirements Size of the loan Maturity Non-interest rate charges Main factors affecting terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to households for consumer credit and other lending Cost of funds and balance sheet constraints Pressure from competition Perception of risk Bank's risk tolerance

8 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Bank Lending Survey April 18 (C) Demand - Main factors affecting the demand for by households for consumer credit and other lending DEMAND EXPEC TATIONS Spending on durable consumer goods Consumer confidence General level of interest rates Mortgage equity withdrawal Internal finance out of savings Loans from other banks Other sources of finance Note: In those cases where no bar is evident in the graph, the diffusion index is for the respective quarter implying; (1) no change was recorded compared with the previous quarter; (2) the banks responses cancel each other out; or (3) the banks responded by stating N/A (not applicable). 8

9 CENTRAL BANK OF CYPRUS EUROSYSTEM Notes: The Bank Lending Survey is a qualitative survey for the assessment of credit conditions in the euro area and its main objective is to enhance the understanding of bank lending behavior. The survey questionnaire is addressed to senior loan officers in a representative sample of euro area banks and covers a broad area of relevant subjects regarding credit to enterprises and households. For example, it includes questions concerning credit standards, credit terms and conditions as applied to the approval of as well as questions concerning the evaluation by banks of factors affecting demand. More information on the methodology of the survey can be found at: In order to enhance the information content of the survey, a revised BLS questionnaire and compilation guide were introduced in April 15. The results of April 18 Bank Lending Survey relate to changes in compared with the previous quarter and to changes expected in regarding credit standards and demand for to/by enterprises and households 1. It should be noted that the results of the survey relate to answers provided by the participating bank s and represent their own assessment of the financial market. The results do not in any way reflect the views of the Central Bank of Cyprus. 1. The results of the survey for Cyprus are not weighted by the market share of each participating bank, thus the answers of all participants are given the same weight. The survey covers around 9% of the total market for outstanding in Cyprus granted to euro area enterprises and households. For the analysis of the aggregated results for Cyprus and the euro area, the diffusion index is used. It should be noted that a diffusion index value equal to zero may imply that; (a) there was no change compared with the previous quarter; (b) the answers of the participating banks offset one another; or (c) no data are avail able.