BANK LENDING SURVEY 1 April 2015

Transcription

1 CENTRAL BANK OF CYPRUS EUROSYSTEM BANK LENDING SURVEY 1 April 215 Summary results for Cyprus and the euro area 2 Loan supply (credit standards) Credit standards on to enterprises and households in Cyprus remained unchanged in 215Q1. In the euro area, credit standards to enterprises and households for consumer credit were eased, whereas credit standards to households for house purchase were tightened. According to the participating banks expectations for 215Q2, credit standards in Cyprus are expected to remain unchanged for all loan categories. In the euro area, credit standards on are expected to remain at the levels of the first quarter apart from credit standards on household related to consumer credit and other lending, which are expected to marginally tighten. Loan demand Both Cyprus and the euro area recorded an increase in net demand for to enterprises. It should be noted that the increase in Cyprus was the first one to be recorded since 211Q1. With respect to households, net demand for for both house purchase and consumer credit and other registered an increase in the euro area, whereas in Cyprus it remained unchanged for all household loan categories. Summary of results Credit standards for 215Q1 215Q2 (expectations) 215Q1 215Q2 (expectations) Enterprises Unchanged Unchanged Easing Easing Households - Housing Unchanged Unchanged Tightening Tightening - Consumer credit and other lending Unchanged Unchanged Easing Tightening Demand for Enterprises Households - Housing - Consumer credit and other lending Cyprus Euro area Increase Increase Increase Increase Unchanged Increase Increase Increase Unchanged Increase Increase Increase Note: The above results list the changes that occurred in the last three months (in this case the first quarter of 215), and the changes that are expected for the next three months (i.e. the second quarter of 215). Recall that the measure used for the statistical analysis of this research was the diffusion index. Developments in credit standards, terms and conditions and net demand for in Cyprus and the euro area For comparison purposes and further analysis, the following Charts 1 to 6 illustrate the trend in developments in credit standards, terms and conditions and net demand for to enterprises and households in both Cyprus and the euro area. The most significant development in 215Q1 was the increase recorded for the first time since 211Q1 in net demand for by enterprises in Cyprus. The main factors that contributed to the increase was the significant fall in the corresponding lending interest rates in 215Q1, the increase in debt restructuring and the need for fixed investment and working capital. Looking ahead, in 215Q2 participating banks expect net demand to increase for all loan categories in both Cyprus and the euro area. 1 This is an abbreviated translation of the original Greek version. 2 More detailed analysis of the results of the bank lending survey for the euro area is available at: 1

2 Bank Lending Survey April Loans or credit lines to enterprises CHART 1 Credit standards: to enterprises CHART 2 Demand: to enterprises "tightening" "easing" 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q "increase" Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 2. Loans to households CHART 3 Credit standards: to households for house purchase CHART 4 Demand: to households for house purchase "tightening" "easing" 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q "increase" Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 CHART 5 Credit standards: to households for consumer credit and other lending "tightening" "easing" 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 CHART 6 Demand: to households for consumer credit and other lending "increase" 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 2

3 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 Bank Lending Survey April 215 Appendix 1. Loans or credit lines to enterprises from MFI in Cyprus (diffusion index) (A) Supply - Main factors affecting credit standards as applied to the approval of or credit lines to enterprises Credit standards ''tightening" ''easing" expectations Costs related to banks' capital position 2 1 Ability to access market financing Banks' liquidity position Competition from other banks Competition from non-banks Competition from market financing General economic situation and outlook Industry or firm-specific outlook Risk on the collateral demanded 2 1 Banks' risk tolerance Terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to enterprises Overall Banks' margin on average Banks' margin on riskier Non-interest rate charges Size of the loan or credit line Collateral requirements Loan covenants Maturity Main factors affecting terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to enterprises Pressure from competition Perception of risk Bank's risk tolerance

4 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 Bank Lending Survey April 215 (B) Demand - Main factors affecting the demand for or credit lines to enterprises Demand "increase" Expectations Fixed investment Inventories and working capital Mergers/acquisitions and corporate restructuring General level of interest rates Debt restructuring Internal financing Loans from other banks Loans from non-banks Issuance of debt securities Issuance of equity Note: In those cases where no bar is evident in the graph, the diffusion index is for the respective quarter implying; (1) no change was recorded compared with the previous quarter; (2) the banks responses cancel each other out; or (3) the banks responded by stating N/A (not applicable). 4

5 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 Bank Lending Survey April 215 Appendix 2. Loans to households for house purchase from MFI in Cyprus (diffusion index) (A) Supply - Main factors affecting credit standards as applied to the approval of to households for house purchase CREDIT STANDARDS ''tightening" "easing" EXPECTATIONS Competition from other banks Competition from nonbanks General economic situation and outlook Housing market prospects Borrower's creditworthiness Banks' risk tolerance Terms and conditions for approving to households for house purchase Overall Banks' margin on average Banks' margin on riskier Collateral requirements Loan to value ratio Other loan size limits Maturity Non-interest rate charges Main factors affecting terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to households for house purchase Pressure from competition Perception of risk Bank's risk tolerance

6 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 Bank Lending Survey April 215 (B) Demand - Main factors affecting the demand for by households for house purchase DEMAND "increase " EXPECTATIONS Housing market prospects Consumer confidence General level of interest rates Debt refinancing/restructuring and renegotiation Regulatory and fiscal regime of housing markets Internal finance out of savings/down payment Loans from other banks Other sources of finance Note: In those cases where no bar is evident in the graph, the diffusion index is for the respective quarter implying; (1) no change was recorded compared with the previous quarter; (2) the banks responses cancel each other out; or (3) the banks responded by stating N/A (not applicable). 6

7 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 Bank Lending Survey April 215 Appendix 3. Loans to households for consumer credit and other lending from MFI in Cyprus (diffusion index) (A) Supply - Main factors affecting credit standards as applied to the approval of to households for consumer credit and other lending CREDIT STANDARDS ''tightening" ''easing" EXPECTATIONS Competition from other banks Competition from nonbanks General economic situation and outlook Creditworthiness of consumers Risk on the collateral demanded Banks' risk tolerance Terms and conditions for approving to households for consumer credit and other lending Overall Banks' margin on average Banks' margin on riskier Collateral requirements Size of the loan Maturity Non-interest rate charges Main factors affecting terms and conditions for approving or credit lines to households for consumer credit and other lending Pressure from competition Perception of risk Bank's risk tolerance

8 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 213Q2 213Q3 213Q4 214Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 Bank Lending Survey April 215 (B) Demand - Main factors affecting the demand for by households for consumer credit and other lending DEMAND "increase" EXPECTATIONS Spending on durable consumer goods Consumer confidence General level of interest rates Mortgage equity withdrawal Internal finance out of savings Loans from other banks Other sources of finance Note: In those cases where no bar is evident in the graph, the diffusion index is for the respective quarter implying; (1) no change was recorded compared with the previous quarter; (2) the banks responses cancel each other out; or (3) the banks responded by stating N/A (not applicable). 8

9 CENTRAL BANK OF CYPRUS EUROSYSTEM Notes: The Bank Lending Survey (BLS) is a qualitative survey for the assessment of credit conditions in the euro area and its main objective is to enhance the understanding of bank lending behaviour. The survey questionnaire is addressed to senior loan officers in a representative sample of euro area banks and covers a broad area of relevant subjects regarding credit to enterprises and households. For example, it includes questions concerning credit standards, credit terms and conditions as applied to the approval of as well as questions concerning the evaluation by banks of factors affecting demand. More information on the methodology of the survey can be found at: In order to enhance the information content of the survey, a revised BLS questionnaire and compilation guide were introduced in April 215. The results of the April 215 BLS relate to changes in 215Q1 compared with the previous quarter and to changes expected in 215Q2 regarding credit standards and demand for to enterprises and households 1. It should be noted that the results of the survey relate to answers provided by the participating banks and represent their own assessment of the financial market. The results do not in any way reflect the views of the Central Bank of Cyprus. 1. The results of the survey for Cyprus are not weighted by the market share of each participating bank, thus the answers of all participants are given the same weight. The survey covers around 85% of the total market for outstanding in Cyprus granted to euro area enterprises and households. For the analysis of the aggregated results for Cyprus and the euro area, the diffusion index is used. It should be noted that a diffusion index value equal to zero may imply that; (a) there was no change compared with the previous quarter; (b) the answers of the participating banks offset one another; or (c) no data are available. 9