The Real Price of Risk in Lending
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- Dulcie Griffin
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1 The Real Price of Risk in Lending IBA, NBA & OBA 2018 Convention June 21, 2018 Today s Agenda Why we care about risk How we can (and should) use risk s What makes a strong risk system How to develop and manage individual s 2 1
2 The Case for Timely Ratings Charge-off Rates Relatively Benign Data source: Compiled charge off data from FFIEC call reports 4 2
3 Tightening Standards as an Indicator Data sources: Compiled charge off data from FFIEC call reports Senior Lending Officer Survey via fred.stlouisfed.org 5 Ratings Not as Forward Looking Data sources: Compiled charge off data from FFIEC call reports Annual Shared National Credit exam reports 6 3
4 And Lag Tightening Standards Data sources: Annual Shared National Credit exam reports Senior Lending Officer Survey via fred.stlouisfed.org 7 Revisiting Risk Rating Definitions 4
5 Pass: the Undefined Rating Performing as Agreed Repayment in the Normal Course 9 Pass vs. Special Mention Performing as Agreed Repayment in the Normal Course Potential weakness that deserves management s close attention 10 5
6 Special Mention vs. Substandard Potential weakness Well-defined weakness 11 Doubtful & Loss 12 6
7 Risk Rating & the Loan Life Cycle Ways to Use Risk Rating New Loan Origination Regulatory Expectations Risk serves multiple purposes Loan Pricing Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses Portfolio Rhythms Resource Management 14 7
8 New Loan Origination New Loan Origination Regulatory Expectations Risk serves multiple purposes Loan Pricing Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses Portfolio Rhythms Resource Management 15 Underwriting Guidelines Office Buildings 12/31/2017 3/31/2018 Amortization 15 years 15 years Maturity 5 years 5 years DSCR 1.25x 1.25x Risk Rating Pass 4 Pass
9 Loan Pricing New Loan Origination Regulatory Expectations Risk serves multiple purposes Loan Pricing Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses Portfolio Rhythms Resource Management 17 Approach 1: Target Returns Return on Assets Net Interest Income Net Non Interest Income Net Non Ope Income Other Higher interest rate set to obtain ROA given other factors Managing lower s more actively = higher expenses Higher risk = higher allowance 18 9
10 Approach 2: Spread to Risk Free Rate Caution: these spreads are indicative of cost of debt for a company inclusive of all tranches. A bank s first lien position will likely impact using these rates in practice. 19 Resource Management New Loan Origination Regulatory Expectations Risk serves multiple purposes Loan Pricing Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses Portfolio Rhythms Resource Management 20 10
11 Planning for the Future This Year Pass 1 3 Pass 4 5 Special Mention Next Year Classified Paid Out Total New Origination Pass (3) 45 Pass (7) 60 Special (2) 6 Mention Classified (1) 6 Total (13) 147 How many resources will you need for this portfolio mix? 21 Portfolio Management New Loan Origination Regulatory Expectations Risk serves multiple purposes Loan Pricing Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses Portfolio Rhythms Resource Management 22 11
12 Setting Standards for Portfolio Activity Account Review with Bank Management Days to Spread Financials Borrower Visit / Conversation Pass 1 3 Annually 30 Annually Pass 4 5 Semi-Annually 20 Semi-Annually Special Mention Monthly 10 Quarterly Classified Monthly 5 Monthly Example chart 23 Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses New Loan Origination Regulatory Expectations Risk serves multiple purposes Loan Pricing Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses Portfolio Rhythms Resource Management 24 12
13 Using Expected Loss Rates Rating at Origination Historical Loss Rate X type loans over X Years Pass % Pass % Pass % Pass % Pass % Things to consider. Different type of loans will have different average maturities More applicable under CECL Data for illustration only 25 Regulatory Expectations New Loan Origination Regulatory Expectations Risk serves multiple purposes Loan Pricing Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses Portfolio Rhythms Resource Management 26 13
14 WHAT DO YOU VIEW AS THE MOST IMPORTANT USE OF RISK RATING? New Originations Loan Pricing Resource Management Portfolio Rhythms ALLL Regulatory Expectations 27 Characteristics of a Strong System 14
15 Characteristics of a Strong System USE THE FULL RATING SPECTRUM 29 Move Across Ratings Appropriately Current Period Rating Prior Period Rating 30 15
16 Align with Expected Loss Rates 31 Developing Individual Risk Ratings 16
17 The Process Develop scorecard Analyze specific Finalize Document 33 Scorecard Factors Develop scorecard Analyze specific Finalize Document What are best practices in determining factors in a scorecard? Vary by product Include qualitative & quantitative factors Focus on drivers 34 17
18 Industry Factors Develop scorecard Analyze specific Finalize Document How can industry be included in a scorecard? Current state of the industry Future of the industry Borrower s position in the industry 35 Analyzing the Specific Rating Develop scorecard Analyze specific Finalize Document Did the scorecard properly capture the embedded risk of the deal? Ability & willingness to repay (borrower) Structural and collateral considerations (facility) 36 18
19 Expert Judgment Develop scorecard Analyze specific Finalize Document What role should expert judgment play in assigning risk? Support expert judgment with factors not in the scorecard Review scorecard if / when systemic disconnects 37 Additional Approvals Develop scorecard Analyze specific Finalize Document When should additional approvals be required? Approval before is finalized in defined circumstances Regular review of the risk system 38 19
20 Regular Review of Scorecard HOW DO FINAL RATINGS ALIGN WITH SCORECARD 39 Documenting Ratings Develop scorecard Analyze specific Finalize Document 40 20
21 Risk Rating Analysis Framework Opening Paragraph Middle Paragraphs Closing Paragraph Pass Details of positive attributes in one paragraph Details of negative attributes in one paragraph Special Mention Substandard Statement of risk class assigned Indication if risk class has changed Summary of key points Details of negative attributes in one paragraph Details of positive attributes in one paragraph Details of negative attributes with one paragraph for each area of concern What would cause an upgrade What would cause a downgrade Doubtful / Loss Detail of analysis leading to the value assigned 41 Thoughts for Back in the Office Are you using risk s throughout a loan s life cycle? How strong is your risk system overall? Do you have consistent application and documentation of individual s? 42 21
22 Q&A Alison Trapp Advisory Services Lending & Risk Summit The premier conference for lending and risk Learn:» Sessions dedicated to lending, credit risk and portfolio risk led by our consultants & other industry experts» Led by industry experts to address your challenges around growth and risk» Earn CPE credits» Solutions stations & demo room Network:» More than 350 bankers from 200 institutions attend» Banker Appreciation Chicago Sports Museum Apply:» 97% of attendees recommend the Summit to community bankers» Offers actionable insights to help banks grow profitably and mitigate risk Sageworks.com/Summit 22
23 Additional Resources Sageworks.com Learn about Sageworks risk management suite» Sageworks Credit Analysis» Sageworks Loan Pricing» Sageworks ALLL Bank Information Customized bank analysis and targeting intelligence tool Interested in talking with a specialist?» us now: sales@sageworks.com 45 23
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