Sensex (36526) / Nifty (11008) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Trading for the week began slightly lower as indicated by the SGX Nifty. Subsequently, in the initial hours, we did see some attempts to recover from early morning lows. However, a strong bout of selling dragged the index significantly lower and within no time, index corrected towards 10800. Things looked extremely bleak at one point; but fortunately, our markets attracted enormous buying interest at lower levels and throughout the second half, there was broad-based rally seen to reclaim the 11000 mark. Historically speaking, when bounce has to come in the strong corrective mode, then it generally comes after initial sell-off; when traders become reluctant to buy and this is what we witnessed on Monday as well. The set up was just perfect after initial drag and hence, markets had a V-shaped recovery from the kissing distance of the daily 200-SMA. Technically, the bounce was very much overdue and if we look at the midcap index also, it had reached its 127% reciprocal retracement from recent up move. Considering Monday s close, this relief move should extend a bit wherein, 11080-11140 would be seen as the next major hurdles. On the downside, 10960 followed by 10900 are likely to act as immediate supports. Having said that we still advise traders to remain light and should ideally focus on stocks which are trading around important supports and are poised for a bounce back. Key Levels Support 1 10960 Resistance 1 11080 Support 2 10900 Resistance 2 11140 Nifty Bank Outlook - (25367) Post the sharp correction in the month of September, the first day of this month was a relief for many traders as the index pulled back higher from lower levels and gained about a percent from Friday's closing. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Although we have seen minor pullbacks in recent past, Monday's move was a bit encouraging for the bulls as the index has formed a short-term support base around 24700. Also, the upmove was supported by a broad-based rally and hence, there is a higher probability of this pullback getting extended in near term. Thus, swing traders can look for buying opportunities in stocks within the sector. We expect the index to rally towards 25720-25825 range in near term. In case we see the rally getting extend beyond the above-mentioned range, then the index could approach the '200 DMA' as well, which coincides with the key retracement levels in the range of 26000-26250. On the flipside, 24900 followed by 24700 would now be seen as key supports. Key Levels Support 1 24900 Resistance 1 25720 Support 2 24700 Resistance 2 25825
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.03% Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 17.74% as market closed at 11008.30 levels. The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 53.50 points against a premium of 23.85 points in last trading session. The November series closed at a premium of 95.45 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.92 to 16.83. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has increased from 1.33 to 1.41. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are MFSL, BOSCHLTD, HCC, ICICIPRULI and SUZLON. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 1842 crores. At the same time, they bought marginally in index futures with some rise in open interest, indicating blend of long and short formation in previous trading session. In options front, they bought worth Rs. 1962 crores with rise in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are considered, we saw fresh build-up in 10900-11100 call options; followed by unwinding in 11200, 11500 and 11700 strikes. On the flip side, 10300-10800 put options added decent positions. Maximum open interest for October series now stood at 11500 followed by 11200 call and 10800 followed by 10500 put options. After consistent fall, we saw some respite on Monday s session. In the initial part of the day, some selling pressure was seen but sharp recovery in the latter half led Nifty closing above 11000 mark. We saw some short covering in Nifty Futures; whereas, good amount of long positions were formed in BankNifty. We also witnessed Nifty premium surging to 53 from 24, which indicates buying interest from intraday lows. At present, 10800 is an immediate base for the index; whereas, around 11200 is the wall of resistance. Gainers CANFINHOME 5508750 23.48 261.70 10.09 INDUSINDBK 6445500 21.02 1642.65-2.23 DLF 32722500 16.17 158.45-2.24 MRPL 5746500 14.84 69.50-3.04 INFRATEL 4950400 14.06 267.60 1.71 PEL 3787382 13.67 2271.80-1.41 KSCL 856500 13.29 558.00-3.67 KOTAKBANK 13033600 11.37 1122.00-1.72 Losers INFIBEAM 18924000-8.31 66.90 14.16 RAMCOCEM 684800-8.15 652.80 2.52 CHOLAFIN 863000-7.95 1235.35 5.69 PTC 10424000-6.53 71.30 7.10 CANBK 8234000-6.22 232.80 5.54 ORIENTBANK 12000000-6.06 64.40 5.10 IGL 3775750-5.89 247.60 2.00 SREINFRA 15540000-4.72 36.00 11.23 Historical Volatility HV SUNTV 52.18 PTC 58.32 PCJEWELLER 98.17 IDBI 65.26 CANFINHOME 86.37 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.41 0.88 BANKNIFTY 1.08 0.78 RELIANCE 0.59 0.71 ICICIBANK 0.69 0.63 INFY 0.73 0.50
FII Statistics for October 01, 2018 Turnover on October 01, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 4316.75 4307.90 8.84 220076 18173.56 1.35 109802.22 107840.03 1962.19 734060 63480.30 9.26 16484.39 16067.59 416.80 1216806 83726.68 2.80 6006.43 6070.17 (63.74) 50197 3127.88 33.15 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 320696 29060.09-14.18 6713001 644662.98 12.55 1034423 63187.53-6.91 554333 37412.62-6.28 Total 136609.79 134285.69 2324.09 2221139 168508.42 5.25 TOTAL 8622453 774323.22 8.38 Nifty Spot = 11008.30 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 11000 210.00 Sell 11100 151.45 58.55 41.45 11058.55 Buy 11000 155.20 Sell 10900 126.35 28.85 71.15 10971.15 Buy 11000 210.00 Sell 11200 103.90 106.10 93.90 11106.10 Buy 11000 155.20 Sell 10800 100.25 54.95 145.05 10945.05 Buy 11100 151.45 Sell 11200 103.90 47.55 52.45 11147.55 Buy 10900 126.35 Sell 10800 100.25 26.10 73.90 10873.90 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 314 322 328 337 343 ASIANPAINT 1,247 1,263 1,286 1,302 1,324 AXISBANK 549 571 594 616 639 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,573 2,651 2,698 2,777 2,824 BAJFINANCE 1,984 2,096 2,165 2,277 2,346 BAJAJFINSV 5,629 5,755 5,898 6,024 6,167 BPCL 355 361 367 374 380 BHARTIARTL 311 319 329 337 348 INFRATEL 257 262 267 273 278 CIPLA 637 645 652 661 668 COALINDIA 259 266 270 277 281 DRREDDY 2,396 2,452 2,497 2,553 2,597 EICHERMOT 22,557 23,653 24,326 25,422 26,095 GAIL 373 377 382 386 391 GRASIM 960 979 1,001 1,020 1,042 HCLTECH 1,073 1,086 1,093 1,106 1,113 HDFCBANK 1,981 2,008 2,025 2,052 2,069 HDFC 1,728 1,767 1,792 1,831 1,856 HEROMOTOCO 2,801 2,887 2,936 3,022 3,072 HINDALCO 218 231 237 250 256 HINDPETRO 230 237 244 250 258 HINDUNILVR 1,581 1,612 1,632 1,663 1,683 IBULHSGFIN 733 819 892 978 1,051 ICICIBANK 295 305 310 319 324 IOC 148 151 153 156 158 INDUSINDBK 1,588 1,616 1,643 1,670 1,697 INFY 723 735 745 757 767 ITC 288 293 298 302 307 JSW STEEL 364 372 380 388 395 KOTAKBANK 956 1,039 1,085 1,168 1,214 LT 1,190 1,219 1,247 1,276 1,303 M&M 828 838 851 861 875 MARUTI 7,106 7,285 7,385 7,564 7,664 NTPC 165 167 169 171 173 ONGC 172 175 178 182 185 POWERGRID 183 188 191 196 199 RELIANCE 1,177 1,205 1,231 1,258 1,285 SBIN 260 267 271 278 282 SUNPHARMA 599 617 628 646 657 TCS 2,155 2,205 2,241 2,291 2,326 TATAMOTORS 216 223 227 233 237 TATASTEEL 547 565 576 594 604 TECHM 733 746 755 768 777 TITAN 770 790 802 822 834 ULTRACEMCO 3,752 3,846 3,948 4,042 4,144 UPL 626 646 658 678 690 VEDANTA 222 227 231 236 239 WIPRO 319 325 329 334 338 YESBANK 159 180 192 213 225 ZEEL 416 428 435 447 454
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