January 6, 28 FPCJ Outlook for Japanese Economy in 28 Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki Chief Economist Sojitz Research Institute, ltd
World Economic Outlook (Oct. 27) Seeking Sustainable Growth 単位 :% 25 26 27 28 World Output 3. 3.2 3.6 3.7 Advanced United States Euro Area Japan 2. 2.6.5.6.7.5.8. 2.2 2.2 2..5 2. 2.3.9.7 Emerging China India Brazil Russia ASEAN5 4. 6.8 7.3-3. -3.8 4.6 4.3 6.7 7. -3.6 -.2 4.9 4.6 6.8 6.7.7.8 5.2 4.9 6.5 7.4.5.6 5.2 World Trade Volume Oil Nonfuel 3.2-46.4-6.9 2.4-5.7 -.8 4.2 7.4 7. 4. -.2.5 http://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/27/9/9/world-economic-outlook-october-27 2
The World Economy From BC to AC % IMF Forecast 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 BC=Before the Crisis (Ave.23-7) World :5.% Advanced:2.7% Emerging:7.7% Trade Vol.:8.6% AC=After the Crisis (Ave.22-6) World :3.% Advanced:.4% Emerging:4.8% Trade Vol.:2.6% 998 999 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 22 World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies 3
Japanese Economy in Era of Abenomics 22 4 th Q --- 27 3 rd Q Nominal GDP Y493. tril. Y549.2tril(+.4%) Ave.+2.4% Real GDP Y498. tril. Y534.tril.(+7.2%) Ave. +.5% 兆円 57 55 28 SNA 2 年基準 Nominal GDP 549.2 53 534. 5 49 47 498. 493. Real GDP 45 28/ - 3. -2. 29/ - 3. -2. 2/ - 3. -2. 2/-3. -2. 22/-3. -2. 23/-3. -2. 24/-3. -2. 25/-3. -2. 26/-3. -2. 27/-3. 実質 GDP 名目 GDP Cabinet Office 4
Robust Export Boosts Production Index of industrial Production (2=) IIP 3 2 METI Forecast:Dec +3.4% Jan -4.5% Export / Import / Trade Balance Tril Yen 9. 8. Monthly Trade Statistics (sa) Import 億円 5 3.6 (7/) 7. 6. 5 9 8 5. 4. 3. Export Trade Balance -5 - -5 7 6 28 287 29 297 2 27 2 27 22 227 23 237 24 247 25 257 26 267 27 277 28 2. -2 28// 28// 29/7/ 2/4/ 2// 2// 22/7/ 23/4/ 24// 24// 25/7/ 26/4/ 27// 27// 貿易収支 ( 右 ) 輸出 ( 左 ) 輸入 ( 左 ) METI MOF 5
JFTC Trade Forecast 27 Dec 7 th 27 http://www.jftc.or.jp/research/index2.html Export in FY 28 will be Over Yen 8 trillion Yen Tril. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Import Trade Statistics 85. Export 8.8 79.2 7.5 75.2 77.5 67.5 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27e 28e 貿易収支 ( 右軸 ) 輸出 ( 左軸 ) 輸入 ( 左軸 ) Yen Tril 5 5-5 - -5 FY Current Account Surplus in FY28 will be the 2 nd Highest 3 25 2 5 5-5 - -5 Yen Tril. 24.3 Current Account Income Balance 22.8 23.8 2.4 Trade Balance 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 7e 8e FY 経常収支 貿易収支 第 次所得収支 6
Buffet Index Suggests Tokyo s Bubble Yen Trillion Market Capitalization vs. Nominal GDP % 8 7 37.4% 23.% 6 4 6 2 5 4 8 3 6 2 4 2 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-82 Jul-83 Sep-84 Nov-85 Jan-87 Mar-88 May-89 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-92 Jan-94 Mar-95 May-96 Jul-97 Sep-98 Nov-99 Jan- Mar-2 May-3 Jul-4 Sep-5 Nov-6 Jan-8 Mar-9 May- Jul- Sep-2 Nov-3 Jan-5 Mar-6 May-7 東証時価総額 =a 名目 GDP=b レシオ =a/b 7
Japanese Economy Supported by Globalism 千人 3, 25, 2, 5,, 5, Tourists Outbound 8,3478,35 8,6 8,358 7,334 6,79 4,7574,772 5,2395,226,386,728 6,29,364 3,43 28,548 9,737 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27(est) インバウンド Inbound アウトバウンド 24,39 Bakugai by Foreign Tourists Stimulated Domestic Consumption FTA Strategy TPP Approved after Trump s Exit Japan-EU EPA Concluded Tourism Strategy Tokyo 22 Osaka-Kansai EXPO IR (Integrated Resort) Law *27 年分は - 月期推計値を 2/ 倍したもの JNTO 8
Tightening Labor Market 百 6 Millions Employed Numbers % 8. Unemployment Rate/ Job Offering Rate 倍.8 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 5 54.95 Mil 22.2 (M3.3mil F23.6mil) 58.58 mil 27. (M32.4 mil F26.2 mil) 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2...57 (Nov. 27) 2.8% (Nob. 27).6.4.2..8.6.4.2 5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 7. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 7. 失業率 ( 左 ) 有効求人倍率 ( 右 ) MIAC MIAC/MHLW 9
Workers Increasing Despite Population Decline 66 64 62 6 58 56 54 52 5 6584 ('97/6) Labor Population thousands 7 68 6745 68 Labor Force Workers Employed 労働力人口就業者雇用者 6558 5858 Working Age Population Peaked in 996-97 Women, Elders, Foreigners Entering Labor Market Labor Force=Workers + Unemployed(Willing to work over 5 years old) Workers=Self-Employed +Family Workers+ Employed Employed= Regular + Temporary + Day Laborer MIAC
Declining Population 26.7million(Est. as of Dec st 27) *Including.94mil. Foreigner Thousands 3, Japan s Demography 2,5 2,,5 Birth,38, 5 Death 977-5 9 93 96 99 922 925 928 93 934 937 94 943 946 949 952 955 958 96 964 967 97 973 976 979 982 985 988 99 994 997 2 23 26 29 22 25 自然増減数出生数死亡数 MHLW
Economic Policy Agenda in 28 () Financial Assets in the Aging Society Financial Gerontology in the Life Years Era Healthcare & Wealthcare Japan s Financial Assets : Yen 7 tril. Over 6 Years Old Possess 6%(Yen tril.) Preferable Saving at Pension Payment age=ave. Yen 2mil Financial Assets of the Household of the 6s Average: Yen 6mil Median: Yen 6mil 2
Economic Policy Agenda in 28(2) Abe Administration s Top Priority Work Style Reform Labor Shortage Era White Collar Exemption (Law of No-Overwork-Pay?) Sideline Retirement Age Dismissal Regulation Experiment of Premium Friday in 27 Productivity Revolution Productivity =OUTPUT/INPUT Increase Numerator or Decrease Denominator? Vertical Integration vs. Horizontal Division of Labor? 3
Ordinary Diet Session Starts (/22) New FRB Chairman J. Powell (2/4) 28 Economic Calendar Pyeongchang Olympic Games (South Korea, 2/9-25) Spring Offensive Shun-to (3/4) Who is Post Kuroda (BOJ Governor)?(4/8) New Keidanren Starts under Chairman Hiroaki Nakanishi (5/3) G7 Summit(Canada, 6/8-9) FIFA World Cup (Russia, 6/4-7/5) Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy th Anniversary (9/5) LDP Leader Election(Sept.) Tsukiji Fishery Market Go to Toyosu (/) Meiji Restoration 5 th Anniversary (/23) BIE General Assembly(Nov.) World Expo 225 (Osaka/ Paris/ Ekaterinburg/ Baku) ASEAN+3/ East Asia Summit etc.(singapore, /-5) APEC Summit(Papua New Guinea, /2-8) G2 Summit(Buenos Aires, /3-2/) COP24(Poland, 2/3-4) 4