Actives vs passives: A global perspective on the current debate

Actives vs passives: A global perspective on the current debate Prof Amin Rajan Delivering intelligent insights Email: amin.rajan@create-research.co.uk

Theme 1 1. Since the 2008 crisis, a vast majority of active funds have struggled to outperform their market benchmarks. But it is inadvisable to write off active management. Passive funds have their own issues. The active-passive debate is far more nuanced than suggested by the media discussion. It also ignores the role of technology in bringing about a convergence between them. A US Pension Plan CREATE-Research May 2017. All rights reserved 2

Pro-active funds Ned Johnson, Chairman of Fidelity Investments Talking to Boston Globe three years after Vanguard rolled out the first index mutual fund in 1976 CREATE-Research May 2017. All rights reserved 3

Flows from active to passive funds in US equities Billions of US Dollars 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400-600 -800-1000 -1200 Index mutual funds Index ETFs Actively managed funds 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400-600 -800-1000 -1200 Billions of US Dollars Note: US domestic equity funds; figure as of 30 Nov 2016 Source: Investment Company Institute; Simfund; Credit Suisse 5

Decline in standard deviation of excess returns for US large capitalised funds 18% Standard deviation of excess returns 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Number of funds: 69 120 147 207 353 712 1274 1236 1082 Source: Markov Processes International; Morningstar; Credit Suisse 6

Fees on US equity mutual funds 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Active mutual funds All funds Percent 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Passive 0.1 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Morningstar Note: Weighted by AuM, passive includes index funds and passive ETFs 7

Global AuM: active vs passive $87T $72T $16T $23T Passive Active $34T $4T $43T $6T $56T $64T $30T $37T 2003 2008 2015 2020 Source: Greenwich Associates 2016; BCG Global Asset Management 2016 8

Drawdown containment is critical in a low return world Gain needed to break even after a loss (%) Source: Bloomberg 2016 9

Performance of active and passive funds has been cyclical Difference in performance between large cap active and passive funds Relative performance (%) 6 4 2 0 Active outperforms passive S&P 500 index 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0-2 -4-6 Passive outperforms active -8 Dec 81 Jun 82 Jun 83 Jun 84 Jun 85 Jun 86 Jun 87 Jun 88 Jun 89 Jun 90 Jun 91 Jun 92 Jun 93 Jun 94 Jun 95 Jun 96 Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 The analysis of monthly rolling 3 year returns for the period 31Dec1981-30Jun2016 Source: Morningstar Direct, Baron Capital 2016 10

Factor investing will change the contours of the asset industry helped by artificial intelligence and machine learning 1. Big data will revolutionise factor investing due to their sheer variety, volume and velocity 2. A new people-machine interface will emerge. Humans will still make judgement calls on which factors to select, when to underweight or over weight, or when to switch them off 3. Machine learning is set to revolutionise investing, creating a clear distinction between commoditised alpha and pure alpha 4. Artificial intelligence will industrialise investing and favour those managers with technology, scale and reach Systematic strategies based on factor investing will have the unstoppable momentum of a super tanker. They have worked well for us A Danish Pension Plan CREATE-Research May 2017. All rights reserved 11

Theme 2 1. Since the 2008 crisis, a vast majority of active funds have struggled to outperform their market benchmarks 2. An era of low interest rates in America and Europe has seen innovation in asset allocation approaches Investing in an era of negative yields is like learning to drive a car backwards. There are no precedents or history books to guide us. A Swedish Pension Plan CREATE-Research May 2017. All rights reserved 12

1. Greater diversification outside the traditional 60:40 equity/bond portfolios Retail investors % of respondents % of respondents DB investors Multi-asset class funds Funds with income focus Passive bonds/equity funds Regulated mutual funds Exchange traded funds (ETFs) 63 60 60 55 44 Passive bonds/equity funds Global equities Real estate (debt and equity) Infrastructure Low variance equities Developed market government bonds Alternative credit 70 69 68 65 62 58 56 High Net Worth investors DC investors Real estate Actively managed equities/bonds Private equity Hedge funds Multi-asset class funds Passive bonds/equity funds 63 56 55 54 54 52 Diversified income funds Passive bonds/equity funds Target date retirement funds Target income retirement funds Diversified growth funds Actively managed equity-bond funds 68 66 60 58 52 42 Source: Principal Global Investors / CREATE-Research 2015 survey 13

2. Higher risk appetite by going into equities and alternatives Source: Amundi / CREATE-Research Survey 2016 14

3. Search for surrogate assets with equity like returns and bond like features RETURN SEEKING ASSETS Global equities Regional equities Private equity Investment grade bonds High yield bonds Private real estate Hedge funds ALTERNATIVE CREDIT Senior loans Mezzanine finance Subordinated corporate debt Collateralised Debt Private equity (secondaries) Floating rate notes REAL ASSETS Commercial Real estate Mature infrastructure Farm land Social housing Student accommodation Toll roads and mobile masts Ground rents LIABILITY HEDGING ASSETS Gilts Index linked bonds Sovereign bonds Swaps Asset growth Liability matching Source: Amundi Asset Management / CREATE-Research 2014 Survey 15