Pattern Trader - December - 2016 - Trade Analysis, Trade Set-ups and Profit (Loss) Pair: XAUUSD (spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1177.00 Stop loss: 1167.00 Take profit: 1192.00 Trade Risk Profile: 0.50% Analysis: To be clear, I believe XAUUSD is in a "bear" market. That being said, I feel this pair has fallen very far, in a short period of time. The recent "reversal" bars lead me to believe, we could see a good bounce (higher) from current levels.
Currency Pair: GBPCHF Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.2867 Stop loss: 1.2787 Take profit: 1.3218 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: GBPCHF formed a Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern in the Oct-Nov time-frame. This implies this pair is headed higher (over time). Penetration above Friday's inside-day bar will likely lead to a sustained move to the upside.
Currency Pair: GBPAUD (Weekly Trade) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.7155 Stop loss: 1.1.6766 Take profit: 1.7577 Trade Risk Profile: 1.00% Analysis: GBPAUD appears to be in the process of forming an Inverted Head-and-Shoulders (bull) price pattern. Penetration above last week's Key Reversal bar will likely result in further momentum to the upside.
Currency Pair: EURNZD Entry 1. Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.5140 Stop loss: 1.5047 Take profit: 1.5487 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Entry 2. Entry Order: BUY LIMIT @ 1.5018 Stop loss: 1.4897 Take profit: 1.5387 Trade Risk Profile: 1.25% Analysis: I have a feeling this trade could be a GREAT one! Today's huge Key Reversal, at-or-near, a Double-Bottom price level could translate into an opportunity to "tag" this pair "on the turn" (turning from a bear to bull market). I am so excited by the potential of this trade that I have suggested two entry points. (Those traders more risk averse should elect the Buy stop).
Currency Pair: GBPUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.2745 Stop loss: 1.2687 Take profit: 1.2987 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: GBPUSD is trading at the apex on an Ascending Triangle price pattern. Penetration above the high of today's inside-day bar will likely result in further upside momentum.
Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.7780 Stop loss: 1.7851 Take profit: 1.7518 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: For the past few weeks I have been howling that this pair was going higher. However, in the past few days, GBPNZD has been unable to sustain any forward progress. Today's inside-day bar, at the peak of a Reverse Symmetrical Triangle leads me to believe there may be an (imminent) reversal (lower) in this pair.
Currency Pair: EURGBP Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.8424 Stop loss: 0.8487 Take profit: 0.8257 Trade Risk Profile: 1.25% Analysis: EURGBP has formed a Double-Top (bear) price pattern. Accordingly, this pair has only one-way to go from here (lower). Penetration below the low of today's Key reversal will likely trigger a (big) slide in prices.
Currency Pair: NZDCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.9447 Stop loss: 0.9507 Take profit: 0.9287 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: NZDCAD appears to be in the process of tracing out a Head-and-Shoulders (bear) price pattern. Confirmation of this pattern would be upon a breach of the neckline at about the 0.9300 price level. If we take out the low of today's Key reversal, it will likely trigger a further fall in prices.
Currency Pair: GBPCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.6534 Stop loss: 1.6611 Take profit: 1.6418 Trade Risk Profile: 0.50% Analysis: GBPCAD is in a well-entrenched down-trend. The recent Double-Top (bear) price pattern suggests prices are set to turn down (again). Penetration below the low of Friday's narrow-range bar, will likely result in a further crash in price (to at least the 1.6400 price level).
Currency Pair: USDCHF (Weekly Chart) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.0214 Stop loss: 1.0009 Take profit: 1.0587 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: This week's Key Reversal near the apex of an Ascending Triangle suggests prices are set to burst higher from current levels.
Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.7693 Stop loss: 1.7597 Take profit: 1.8187 Trade Risk Profile: 1.00% Analysis: Based on the Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern in GBPNZD, that was formed in the Oct-Nov time-frame, I firmly believe this pair is head (much) higher. Recently, GBPNZD has also "cut" a "Diamond" price pattern (no pun intended). Penetration above recent high's will likely result in further momentum to the upside.
Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.7687 Stop loss: 1.7507 Take profit: 1.8087 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: For weeks, as this market has treaded water, I have said this pair is going a lot higher. Based on the Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern in GBPNZD, that was formed in the Oct-Nov timeframe, I firmly believe this pair will head north...soon. I like my chances should we get above the high of today's Key reversal bar.
Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 147.31 Stop loss: 145.87 Take profit: 150.87 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: I took a huge chunk (612 pips) out of the Long side of this pair in November. GBPJPY burst out of a Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern at the 125.00-126.00 price level in Oct-Nov, and has not looked back since. Penetration above the high of today's Key reversal will likely be the catalyst for a further price rise in this virulent bull market. Risk Management: Both trades tonight are correlated to the GBP currency, so not altogether diversified. You can elect to trade one, or both. I am putting on positions in both trades at the designated risk levels.
Pair: XAUUSD (spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1166.00 Stop loss: 1157.00 Take profit: 1187.00 Trade Risk Profile: 0.50% Analysis: XAUUSD is in a "bear" market, and this trade could very well be a reach (not a high-probability trade). That being said, I feel today's Key reversal at the bottom of a recent support line, could result in a very healthy bounce from current levels. Not a full-throated endorsement, but this trade could really pay-off.
Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.7687 Stop loss: 1.7507 Take profit: 1.8087 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: For weeks, as this market has treaded water, I have said this pair is going a lot higher. Based on the Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern in GBPNZD, that was formed in the Oct-Nov timeframe, I firmly believe this pair will head north...soon. I like my chances should we get above the high of today's Key reversal bar.
Currency Pair: AUDCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.9805 Stop loss: 0.9857 Take profit: 0.9657 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: AUDCAD appears to be tracing out a Head-and-Shoulders (bear) price pattern. Penetration below the last two trading session reversal bars will likely result in continued momentum to the downside.
Currency Pair: EURGBP Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.8354 Stop loss: 0.8405 Take profit: 0.8137 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: EURGBP has formed both a Double-Top and a Head-and-Shoulders (bear) price pattern(s). Penetration below the low of Friday's Key reversal bar will likely push this pair below the "neckline", and, ultimately to (much) lower prices.
Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 147.35 Stop loss: 145.87 Take profit: 150.87 Trade Risk Profile: 0.50% Analysis: GBPJPY burst out of a Double-Bottom at the 125.00-126.00 price level in Oct-Nov, and has not looked back since. Penetration above the high of Friday's "mini" reversal bar could push prices higher from current levels.
Currency Pair: GBPNZD (Weekly) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.7953 Stop loss: 1.7477 Take profit: 1.8987 Trade Risk Profile: 1.50% Analysis: GBPNZD appears in the process of forming an Inverted Head-and-Shoulders (bull) price pattern. Penetration above the high of last week's trading range, will (very) likely result in (much) higher prices from current levels. Feels like a "go to the bank" trade!
Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.7951 Stop loss: 1.7787 Take profit: 1.8257 Trade Risk Profile: 0.70% Analysis: On 12/15, I established a Long position in GBPNZD (@ 1.7687). I feel so strongly about the (upside) potential of this pair, I am looking to add to my current position, upon a penetration above the high of today's Inside-day bar.
Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.7929 Stop loss: 1.7787 Take profit: 1.8257 Trade Risk Profile: 0.70% Analysis: This is a repeat of yesterday's trade set-ups...which was not triggered. On 12/15, I established a Long position in GBPNZD (@ 1.7687). I feel so strongly about the (upside) potential of this pair, I am looking to add to my current position, upon a penetration above the high of the past two session's Inside-day bars.
Currency Pair: EURNZD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.5125 Stop loss: 1.5005 Take profit: 1.5487 Trade Risk Profile: 1.00% Analysis: This is admittedly an early call. However, I (strongly) believe that EURNZD is in the process of forming a Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern, that will ultimately lead to (much) higher prices. Penetration above today's Key reversal bar will likely result in a continuation of the upward momentum in this pair. I really like this trade. Risk Management: I am already Long GBPNZD. By adding tonight's EURNZD trade, both trades are correlated to the NZD currency, so not altogether diversified. You can elect to trade one, or both. I am putting on positions in both trades at the designated risk levels.
Pair: XAUUSD (spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1129.00 Stop loss: 1137.00 Take profit: 1117.00 Trade Risk Profile: 0.50% Analysis: For the past several weeks, XAUUSD has plummeted from a Descending Wedge Triangle (bear) price pattern that was formed in the Jul-Nov time-frame. Penetration below the low of today's inside-day bar will likely result in a continuation to the down-side.
Pattern Trader - December 2016 - Trade-by-Trade Profit (Loss)