Pattern Trader - Trade Analysis, Trade Set-ups and Profit (Loss) Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 133.56 Stop loss: 134.18 Take profit: 131.87 Analysis: Last night's pending order was not triggered. However, I am maintaining my (very bearish posture on this pair. Following the large sell-off from a major double top price pattern last month, GBPJPY has been consolidating between 180.00 and 187.00. Prices are now hovering at the low end of the trading range. Yesterday's key reversal, together with today's inside-day bar, suggest this pair is coiling for an explosive move. I'm betting it will be to the downside.
Currency Pair: EURAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 133.56 Stop loss: 134.18 Take profit: 131.87 Analysis: Following a large surge in prices in late August, EURAUD has been "locked" in a trading range between 1.5600 at the low end, and 1.6200 at the higher end. This pair is in a broad up-trend. Today's key reversal (in the direction of the trend), suggests that prices are set to test (and go through) the 1.6200 resistance level.
Pair: XAUUSD (spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 133.56 Stop loss: 134.18 Take profit: 131.87 Analysis: This past Sunday we alerted our subscribers to short XAUUSD at 1140, which resulted in a healthy 2,200 pip profit in just a few days. Based on the price action today, I still remain firmly in the bear camp on this pair. Following the doubletop (that I identified last Sunday) this pair has followed through to the downside. I feel, if we penetrate below the low on today's NR4 bar (the narrowest range in the past four trading sessions), there will be (much) lower prices to follow.
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 2.13410 Stop loss: 2.14090 Take profit: 2.11770 Analysis: GBPAUD has formed a descending wedge (bear) triangle. In today's session, this pair closed at or below the neckline. If we see price action below today's session low levels, you could see some good follow-through to the downside. There is still some remaining "white space" yet to be filled within the descending wedge triangle, so there could be some back-and-forth price action before this market is ready to go. Keep your risk low.
Currency Pair: EURGBP Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.7410 Stop loss: 0.7375 Take profit: 0.7518 Analysis: This pair formed a double-bottom (buy) pattern back in the July-August time-frame. Following a sharp upward thrust from the 0.7000 to the 0.7400 price level, for the past several weeks this pair has been consolidating (between approximately 0.7250 on the low end, and about 0.7425 on the high end). In the past two trading sessions EURGBP has been "coiling" in the form of two inside-day bars. I believe if we take out today's session high price level, this pair will explode higher. (This is a good risk:reward trade). Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 183.28 Stop loss: 182.71 Take profit: 185.28 Analysis: Last week this pair apparently found major support around the 180.60 price level. Following a major key reversal at the support level, this pair has been consolidating in a tight "coil" at the current price level. It feels like if we take out today's session high we could be off to the races on this one (to the upside). Keep your risk low.
Currency Pair: EURCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.4711 Stop loss: 1.4665 Take profit: 1.4818 Analysis: Today's key reversal at or near the primary up-trend line suggests there may be some support at current levels. This could work out well or turn out to be a dud. Keep risk low. Instrument: US 500 (S&P500) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 2,000.00
Stop loss: 1,965.00 Take profit: 2,047.00 Analysis: Following what appears to be a nice double-bottom at around the 1,875.00 level, the S&P 500 outside key reversal (it took out the low & high of the previous session) in today's session, suggests there could be more room on the upside. (Watch the 2,020. level for some resistance). Currency Pair: EURNZD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 168.72 Stop loss: 169.31 Take profit: 1.6618 Analysis: EURNZD has decisively broken down from a descending wedge triangle (bear) pattern. Penetration below the low of today's inside bar low, should propel prices much lower. I love this trade and if you want to bet more on this, I wouldn't caution against it...
Currency Pair: AUDJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 87.20 Stop loss: 86.85 Take profit: 88.87 Analysis: AUDJPY appears to have formed a substantial (double or triple) bottom. Today's outside key reversal puts prices at or near the neckline. Penetration above current levels would suggest (much) higher prices to follow. Currency Pair: EURAUD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.5422 Stop loss: 1.5469 Take profit: 1.5231
Analysis: EURAUD has formed a Rectangle Top (see definition below). In Friday's session we got final confirmation of this top price pattern formation following a breach under the low of the support line. Friday's session is also a NR4 bar (the narrowest range in the past four trading sessions). I feel HIGHLY confident that if we take out the low of Friday's NR4 bar, we could be well on our way to a 200+ pip move. The projected move is calculated by taking the height of the two trend lines (A and B in the chart above) multiplied by my proprietary percentage meeting price target mathematical formula. Rectangle Top Definition: Prices have flat tops and flat bottoms, crossing the pattern from side to side following two parallel trend-lines. Instrument: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1160.00 Stop loss: 1144.00 Take profit: 1215.00 Analysis: Back in late July XAUUSD formed an "H" bottom. For the past several months this pair has been trapped in a range-bound affair between 1110.00 and 1160.00. Friday's close above recent resistance levels suggests (much) higher prices to follow. (In the absence of an "insurance day bar" or "coil" that I usually look for, this is an admittedly an early call. However, I think this could be a good point to start accumulating a "long" position. (I'm starting with a small position, and giving this market more latitude in setting a wider SL).
"H" or "Horn" Bottom Definition: Two parallel price spikes. Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 183.93 Stop loss: 184.51 Take profit: 181.18 Analysis: Following what appears to be a lackluster rally last week, GBPJPY appears stalled at current levels. In Friday's session prices reversed at recent high's to close on the low. I feel if we penetrate below the low of today's inside-day bar, we could see lower prices (in a hurry).
Currency Pair: EURNZD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 168.63 Stop loss: 169.21 Take profit: 1.6618 Analysis: EURNZD has decisively broken down from a Rectangle Top (bear) pattern. Penetration below the low of today's reversal bar, should propel prices much lower.
Instrument: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1170.00 Stop loss: 1158.00 Take profit: 1209.00 Analysis: XAUUSD has been stuck in a trading range between 1100.00 and 11.70.00. Should we penetrate above today's massive key reversal at the resistance level, there is a good chance of a nice follow-through to the upside.
Currency Pair: AUDNZD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.0881 Stop loss: 1.0932 Take profit: 1.0718 Analysis: AUDNZD appears to have formed a massive Top price pattern. Today's large key reversal suggests that prices may be ready to break out of the current range to the downside. (Final confirmation of a top price pattern won't be until the breach of the neckline at-or-near current price levels).
Currency Pair: EURAUD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.5669 Stop loss: 1.5728 Take profit: 1.5227 Analysis: Following yesterday's run-up in prices, we are seeing a reversal in prices today, at or near the break-out area, from a Rectangle Top formation. If we penetrate the low of today's session, I feel there is a good chance this pair goes to my TP target in the next several days.
Currency Pair: CADJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 91.60 Stop loss: 91.95 Take profit: 90.18 Analysis: Following a sizable downtrend, CADJPY has been drifting sideways for several months. Recent price action suggests that this pair is incurring resistance at current levels, and could be ready to turn down again, to at least the 89.00-90.00 support area. Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 184.37 Stop loss: 183.97 Take profit: 186.87 Analysis: My current analysis on GBPJPY is probably as sophisticated as, "what doesn't go down, must go up". While my analysis led me to believe that the next major direction is lower, recent price action is telling me otherwise, and as you guy's know my mantra: "The Market is ALWAYS Right". A few days ago I recommended a short trade in GBPJP at current levels (183.93). Following a sharp thrust lower, this pair promptly turned tail in the other direction - but not before we extracted a healthy 96 pip profit on the trade...lol. Following GBPJPY failure to follow-through on its recent decline, for the past two trading sessions it has been consolidating (forming two large inside-day bars) at the 184.00 price level.
I feel if we penetrate above today's session high price, we could see an explosion to the upside. Currency Pair: EURCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.4588 Stop loss: 1.4639 Take profit: 1.4377 Analysis: EURCAD has traced out a well defined Descending wedge triangle (bear) price pattern. Penetration below the low of Friday's inside bar, which is also at or near the "neckline", should propel prices lower.
Currency Pair: GBPUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.5426 Stop loss: 1.5465 Take profit: 1.5257 Analysis: In the Jun-Sep time-frame GBPUSD formed a double-top price pattern. Since that time, subsequent rallies have met with resistance. Last week, GBPUSD rallied back to a heavy resistance level. I think this recent rally will be met with the same result. Should we take out Friday's low, we could see this pair come under (heavy) pressure (again).
Currency Pair: NZDJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 80.68 Stop loss: 81.18 Take profit: 79.57 Analysis: Following a sharp run-up off fresh multi-week lows, today NZDJPY suffered a sharp key reversal at an important near-term resistance level. A sell-off in this pair feels imminent.
Currency Pair: GBPUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.5433 Stop loss: 1.5481 Take profit: 1.5218 Analysis: In the Jun-Sep time-frame GBPUSD formed a double-top price pattern. Since that time, subsequent rallies have met with resistance. Recently GBPUSD rallied back to a heavy resistance level, but seems contained at current price levels - the last three successive trading sessions are stuck within last Wednesday's trading range. Should we take out today's session low, we could see this pair come under (heavy) down-side pressure.
Currency Pair: EURGBP Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.7357 Stop loss: 0.7322 Take profit: 0.7487 Analysis: Following a sharp run-up off a double-bottom low in August, this pair has been contained within a trading range. I think if we penetrate above today's inside-day bar, prices could explode to the 0.7475 resistance area, and possibly (much) higher.
Currency Pair: AUDCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.9488 Stop loss: 0.9435 Take profit: 0.9587 Analysis: AUDCAD appears to have found a double-bottom support in the 0.9150-0.9250 area. Following last week's sell-off, this pair had a large key reversal in the today's session. Despite overall lackluster market conditions, I think we could start seeing higher prices in this pair. I took a shot at this pair a couple of days ago. It still looks good to me. Actually, in my last recommendation of a long trade in this pair, I said it, "feels like AUDCAD wants to go higher (but may need some further consolidation at current levels)". Turns out what appears to be a pretty prescient observation.
\ Instrument: DJIA (Stock Index) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 17,150.00 Stop loss: 17,250.00 Take profit: 16,350.00 Analysis: This market has formed a broadening top formation on the Weekly charts. Following a healthy rally off the Aug low's it appears this Stock Index has run into a major resistance area. Today's key reversal could indicate the beginning, of what I believe, will be another a nasty leg down in the stock market. Today's trade analysis and set-ups: While I am very bearish the EUR, in light of today's volatility, I'm inclined to wait until the dust settles. Instead I am giving you an insight into a very powerful price pattern - Descending Wedge Triangle - that has been building in the EUR against most major currency pairs, and will likely drive the future action in the EUR for quite some time to come..
Tutorial - Descending Wedge Triangle In the chart examples above, I wanted to show you how the Euro currency has formed a MAJOR bear price pattern against all other currency pairs. Descending Wedge Triangle definition: A price pattern bounded by two trendlines, the bottom one horizontal and the top sloping downward. Descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution. I believe there will be a lot of money to be made as this price pattern plays out against the EUR. Currency Pair: NZDUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.6733 Stop loss: 0.6779 Take profit: 0.6597
Analysis: Following a decent rally off multi-year lows, NZDUSD appears to have stalled at the current price levels. Despite the recent rally, the primary trend for this pair is still a bearish one. The recent formation of a double-top price pattern at the upper 0.6800 levels suggests that prices could be ready to turn south (in a hurry). Pair: XAUUSD (spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1158.00 Stop loss: 1167.00 Take profit: 1132.00 Analysis: In recent months Gold has been in a trading range between 1175.00 and 1100.00. While it did "peek" above the resistance level last week, there was no follow-through. The long-term trend for this pair still has to be considered bearish, so I feel if we take out Friday's session key reversal low price, we could be headed back to the support area.
Currency Pair: AUDUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.7270 Stop loss: 0.7225 Take profit: 0.7457 Analysis: This pair appears to have formed a double-bottom (bullish) price pattern at about the 0.6900 price level. Following a healthy run-up off the double-bottom low's AUDUSD has been consolidating at current prices. Should we penetrate above today's inside bar, I think we could see a good move higher. Pair: XAUUSD (spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1159.00
Stop loss: 1167.00 Take profit: 1132.00 Analysis: In recent months Gold has been in a trading range between 1175.00 and 1100.00. While it did "peek" above the resistance level last week, there was no follow-through. The long-term trend for this pair still has to be considered bearish, so I feel if we take out Friday's session reversal bar, AND today's inside-day bar, we could be headed back to the support area. Currency Pair: NZDUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.6737 Stop loss: 0.6785 Take profit: 0.6597 Analysis: Following a decent rally off multi-year lows, NZDUSD appears to have stalled at the current price levels. Despite the recent rally, the primary trend for this pair is still a bearish one. The recent formation of a double-top price pattern at the upper 0.6800 levels, combined with the last two day inside-day bars, suggests that prices could be ready to turn south (in a hurry).
Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 183.93 Stop loss:184.65 Take profit: 181.18 Analysis: For the past two weeks GBPJPY has been rising incrementally and "grudgingly" in a "rising wedge" price pattern. Today, prices broke dramatically from the rising wedge, in what appears to be a renewal of its primary downtrend. I think if we break below today's session low, there could be much lower prices to come in this pair.
XAUUSD (spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1152.00 Stop loss: 1165.00 Take profit: 1111.00 Analysis: In recent months Gold has been in a trading range between 1175.00 and 1100.00. While it did "peek" above the resistance level last week, there was no follow-through. Following today's FED interest rate announcement Gold gave up all its gains for the day and then some. For me, today's massive key reversal feels like a "dagger in the sand", and that the next BIG move will be to the downside. Currency Pair: EURCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.4377 Stop loss:1.4432 Take profit: 1.4117 Analysis: In the past few week's EURCAD has been tracing out a Descending Wedge Triangle (bear) price pattern. Today prices decisively reversed and closed under the horizontal line of the descending triangle, setting up for what looks like a sustained move to the downside.
Currency Pair: EURAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.5529 Stop loss:1.5479 Take profit: 1.5811 Analysis: Recently EURAUD broke out to the downside of a Rectangle Top price pattern. Instead of continuing lower, as would customarily be expected in a break-out from this pattern, this pair appears to have grabbed support at the primary up-trend line. I get the feeling that if we break above today's inside-bar high price, you could see an explosion to the upside.
Currency Pair: AUDJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 86.51 Stop loss: 86.97 Take profit: 83.77 Analysis: Following a sharp break to the downside in mid-august AUDJPY has been in a trading range from 88.00 to 82.00. The recent formation of a double-top price pattern at the 88.00 level suggests prices could be ready to break to the bottom of the trading range (or lower).