World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI GLOBAL, INC. www.msiglobal.com Istanbul CFA Society April 28, 21 Copyright MSI GLOBAL, INC.
ETHICS STATEMENT OUR COMPANY WAS FOUNDED IN JULY 1987 AS AN ENTIRELY INDEPENDENT ENTITY DEDICATED TO RESEARCH ON WORLD ECONOMY, GEOPOLITICS AND INVESTMENT STRATEGY. WE DON T TRADE IN STOCKS, BONDS OR COMMODITIES. WE DON T TRADE IN CURRENCY MARKETS.
TOPICS TO BE COVERED The impact of EU s economic and financial turmoil on Turkish economy and its asset markets. World economy s transition from a cyclical upswing to a stable and sustainable growth. Global flows of trade and finance. Asset markets and asset classes.
THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY. MAJOR POLICY CHALLENGES AHEAD.
Turkey Is Part of the Eurozone s Business Cycle 1 ange from year ea arlier % ch 5-5 -1-15 U.S. Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Eurozone Turkey In synch with the Eurozone s cycle, but a much faster and stronger upswing.
Turkey s Strongly Recovering Economy 1 ange from year ea arlier % ch 5-5 -1 Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9-15 Recent data from the manufacturing sector suggest that demand and output will continue to grow in the months ahead.
Turkey s Soaring Industrial Production 2 15 ange from year ea arlier % ch 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 J-F '1 The upswing seems to have been driven by the manufacturing sector.
Turkey s Unemployment Rate 18 16 14 Percent 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Employment is still not responding to the economy s strong rebound.
Turkey s Improving Trade Accounts -1 7 8 9-2 -3 Current account $ billion -4-5 -6 Merchandise trade -7-8 Trade accounts improving despite accelerating domestic demand.
Turkey s Consumer Prices 12 r earlier change from year % 1 8 6 4 2 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Inflation is responding to the strengthening demand.
Turkey s Short-Term Interest Rates 12 1 8 Percent 6 4 2 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 28 With a long-term interest rate of 4.9 percent, this is a strongly inverted yield curve.
Turkey s Real Short-Term Interest Rates 6 5 4 3 Percent 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 28 Negative real short-term interest rates indicate a very loose monetary policy.
Turkey s Lira Against the Dollar and the Euro.8.7 dollar/lira.6.5 euro/lira.4.3.2.1 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 28 A substantial appreciation against the dollar (6.8 percent) and against the euro (7.3 percent) over the last twelve months.
Turkey s Budget Balances 1e 9 8 7-7 -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 A substantial fiscal consolidation lies ahead.
Turkey s Strong Equity Price Gains 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Turkey Emerging markets Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 28 Ahead of the emerging markets average by more than 3 percent.
THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
THE EUROZONE S SLOW RECOVERY
The Euro Area s Economy Has Bottomed Out 3 arlier % ch hange from year e 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 Potential GDP growth Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Actual GDP growth Growth prospects will continue to improve in the months ahead. Germany, France, Italy and Spain (about 75 percent of the euro area s economy) are partly driven by large stimulus packages. The ECB s credit stance also remains quite easy.
The Euro Area s Bank Lending to the Private Sector 7 6 arlier % ch hange from year e 5 4 3 2 1-1 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb A free-fall of bank lending will make it difficult for the ECB to contemplate an early exit from its current policy stance.
Germany s Election-Led Recovery 2 1 arlier % ch hange from year e -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Elections can do wonderful things for an economy.
France s Balanced Recovery 1.5 1 arlier % ch hange from year e.5 -.5-1 -1.5-2 -2.5-3 -3.5 Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Improving net exports have lent support to the recovery.
AMERICA S V-SHAPE RECOVERY?
America s Actual and Potential Economic Growth 4 earlier % chan nge from the year 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Potential GDP growth Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Actual GDP growth Rebuilding of inventories has driven the early stages of recovery. Rising household incomes, improving labor market conditions and the strengthening financial system are underpinning the recovery.
ISM s Service Sector Index 6 5 4 3 2 1 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar A steadily accelerating climb.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate 12 1 8 Perce ent 6 4 2 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Rising employment because firms can no longer respond to increasing demand by boosting productivity growth. A sustained GDP growth of 2.5-3. percent is necessary for a steadily declining unemployment rate.
Real Disposable Household Incomes in the U.S. 1.6 1.4 r earlier change from year % 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Q1 1e After-tax income gains are still quite weak.
U.S. Households Savings Rate 6 come % of disposable in 5 4 3 2 1 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Q1 '1e Households savings balances are being drawn down as consumer confidence continues to recover.
U.S. Net Exports Are Still Making a Positive Contribution to Aggregate Demand 2 Percent 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 Net exports Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Domestic demand GDP = C + I + G + X M DOMESTIC DEMAND = C + I + G TRADE BALANCE = X - M
THE FED S CRISIS MANAGEMENT Providing ample liquidity. Extending the range of instruments acceptable as collateral. Increasing the number of financial institutions eligible for Fed s loans. Creating new and more flexible lending facilities.
U.S. Banking System ss Borrowed Reserves 6 5 4 $ billion 3 2 1 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 21 Under normal circumstances, borrowed reserves usually fluctuate around monthly averages of $2 million. At the peak of the crisis in November of 28, they reached an unprecedented level of $698.8 billion. They were down to $82 billion at the last reserve reporting period on April 21, 21.
U.S. Banking System s Excess Reserves 14 12 1 $ billio on 8 6 4 2 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 21 Excess reserves also called loanable funds normally amount to monthly averages of $1.5 billion. They stood at $1.1 trillion at the last reserve reporting period on April 21, 21.
Consumer Loans Extended by U.S. Commercial Banks 89 88 87 $ billion 86 85 84 83 82 81 8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Feb '1 Banks consumer lending is still declining.
Total Consumer Loans in the United States 265 26 255 $ billion 25 245 24 235 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Feb '1 Excess liquidity should lead to the recovery of consumer lending.
The Fed s Monetary Base (M) 25 2 $ billion 15 1 5 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 21 The Fed s monetary base has more than doubled from the pre-crisis levels.
The Fed s Monetary Base (M) 12 % change from year earlier 1 8 6 4 2 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 21 The rate of expansion of the Fed s balance sheet has slowed down considerably. But it is still growing at an annual rate of 16 percent. Agrowthrateof3-4 rate of percent is considered normal, because it is generally consistent with non-inflationary economic growth.
MAJOR ASIAN A ECONOMIES O
China s Rebounding Economic Growth 14 r earlier change from year % 12 1 8 6 4 2 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Q1 '1 China s $585 billion (13 percent of GDP) stimulus package was designed to provide a fast-acting support to the economy, and to generate growth based on consumption and investments.
HOW MUCH WILL CHINA HELP THE REST OF THE WORLD? CHINA IS A MAJOR IMPORTER OF FOOD, ENERGY, RAW MATERIALS AND PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF VERY ADVANCED (DUAL USE) TECHNOLOGY. HELPED BY YEARS OF SOARING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS, CHINA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED A BROAD RANGE OF IMPORT-COMPETING INDUSTRIES. CHINA IS AIMING AT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE COMPOSITION OF ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH: IT WANTS AN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY PREDOMINANTLY BASED ON DOMESTIC DEMAND.
Japan is Emerging From a Long Recession 4 arlier % ch hange from year e 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Potential GDP Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Actual GDP
South Korea s Strong and Balanced Cyclical Rebound 1 8 arlier % ch hange from year e 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Q1 '1 A huge, $1 billion (15 percent of GDP), stimulus package has set the economy on the fastest expansion path in the last six years.
India s Accelerating Inflation Is a Threat to Economic Growth 9 8 % change from yea ar earlier 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Loose fiscal and monetary policies are reflecting the government s determination to support fast economic growth. Accelerating inflation and reliance on foreign capital inflows will compromise the quest for 8-9 percent growth rates.
Indonesia s Strong Support to Domestic Demand 7 % change from year earlier 6 5 4 3 2 1 GDP growth target Actual GDP growth Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Indonesia has supported domestic demand without any apparent damage to price stability, public sector accounts and trade balance. There is some room for further stimulus to get the economy back to the targeted growth path of 6 percent.
THE REST OF BRIICs
Russia s Stimulus Package Is Beginning to Work 8 6 % change from yea ar earlier 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12 Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Failure to diversify its economic activity means that Russia s fortunes remain tied to energy and raw materials. Large public works projects and other stimulus measures are beginning to rev up the economy.
Brazil s Election-Led Recovery 8 7 r earlier change from year % 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 Q3 '8 Q4 '8 Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9-2 -3 As a big commodity producer, Brazil stands to greatly benefit from the global economic recovery. Monetary and fiscal policies will have to be tightened after next October elections.
GLOBAL TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS = CURRENT ACCOUNT + CAPITAL ACCOUNT = CURRENT ACCOUNT = - CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF THE WORLD =
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES ($ billion) Pacific Rim United States European Union 6 525.9-88. -9. 7 732. -752. -11. 8 621.7-697. -135. 9 637. -517. -138.
TRANSITION TO A STABLE AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH Errors of monetary policy are possible, especially in countries whose economies are just bottoming out, or are in the very early stages of recovery. Investors should favor asset markets where economies are already on the recovery path, and where stimulus packages are being reviewed. Equities and commodities are our preferred asset classes. Fixed-income instruments will experience a serious downward correction.