Demographic Trends: The 2mes they are a changin Highlights from the 2011 Census and Na2onal Household Survey Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice- President and Chief Demographer Presented to MRIA O/awa Chapter September 12, 2013
Outline of Presentation Popula?on growth Aging of the popula?on Cultural diversity Labour force and income Three target groups What s ahead 2011 Census/NHS 2
Growth rate has been fairly constant since 1981 but main driver of growth has shifted from natural increase to immigration Census Popula2on and Growth Rate, Canada Census Popula?on (millions) Census Popula?on Growth Rate (%) 40.0 16.0 Census Popula2on (millions) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 16.1 13.4 18.2 9.7 20.0 21.6 7.8 23.0 6.6 24.3 5.9 25.3 4.0 27.3 7.9 28.8 5.7 30.0 4.0 31.6 5.4 33.5 5.9 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Census Popula2on Growth Rate (%) 0.0 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0.0 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, various Censuses 3
Population has gradually shifted west for 50 years Share of Total Popula2on, (%) 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 34 36 35 37 38 38 29 28 26 25 24 24 16 18 20 21 23 24 10 10 9 9 8 7 10 9 8 8 7 7 Atlan?c Provinces Quebec Ontario Manitoba and Saskatchewan Alberta and Bri?sh Columbia Source: 1961-2011 Censuses 4
Growth concentrated in large urban areas Canada 2011 Popula2on Es2mate 34,528,000 10% % Growth 2006-2011 Smaller Urban 13% Rural Small Town 18% 6 Largest CMAs 46% 8% 6% 4% 2% 6.0 9.0 4.7 3.4 2.3 Other CMAs 23% % Canada 6 Largest CMAs Other CMAs Smaller Urban Rural Small Town 91 of 293 Census Divisions declined in popula2on Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Popula?on Es?mates Adjusted for Undercount 5
Close to equal number of children and seniors Popula2on, Canada 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0-14 65 and over 0% 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Censuses 1921-2011 6
Rapid growth of suburban population around large metropolitan areas Census Popula2on Growth, 2006-2011 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Popula2on Aged 65+ City Suburbs 15.2 14.2 14.4 11.1 13.6 13.5 Montreal Toronto Vancouver 2006-2011 Growth of Popula2on 65+ City Suburbs 30 24 18 2 7 8 Montreal Toronto Vancouver Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Census 7
Only one in four households is a couple with children under age 25 Households in Canada, 2011 Mul?ple family 2% Other 4% One person 28% Couples with children 26% Lone parent 10% Couples without children 30% Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Census 8
Percentage of young adults living with parents has leveled off Young Adults Living with Parents, Canada, 2011 60% 50% 49 20 to 24 years old 56 57 51 60 59 60% 50% 25 to 29 years old 40% 42 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 20% 10% 11 15 17 21 23 25 25 0% 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0% 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, censuses of popula?on, 1981 to 2011. 9
Older men and women have very different living arrangements Living Arrangements of Seniors, Canada, 2011 Male Seniors Female Seniors 78 77 73 6 6 14 15 6 16 2 4 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and Over Age Groups 65 7 19 9 46 10 22 23 Couple in Private household With Others Alone In senior's residence or nursing home 63 12 24 55 13 29 43 16 35 3 6 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and Over Age Groups 28 17 40 15 10 18 37 35 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada 2011 Census 10
The mosaic is the new mainstream 11
Immigrants at highest level in 80 years Millions 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Immigrants as a Percentage of Popula2on, Canada Immigrants Percent 22.0 22.3 22.2 19.8 20.6 17.5 18.4 14.7 15.6 15.3 16.0 16.1 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sources: Sta?s?cs Canada, Various Census Years and 2011 NHS 12
Fewer immigrants settled in Toronto CMA Number of Immigrants to Canada by CMA, 2006-2011 Change from Number 2001-06 Saskatoon 11,470 243% Winnipeg 45,270 88% Edmonton 49,930 56% Québec 10,665 26% Calgary 70,705 22% All other areas 161,935 21% Montréal 189,730 15% O/awa - Ga?neau 40,420 15% Vancouver 155,120 2% London 11,905-9% Hamilton 18,775-10% Kitchener- Cambridge- Waterloo 15,245-10% Toronto 381,745-15% Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2006 Census and 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 13
South Asian and Chinese are largest groups Visible Minority Popula2on by Group, (000s), 2011 South Asian Chinese Black Filipino La?n American Arab Southeast Asian West Asian Korean Japanese Visible minority, n.i.e. Mul?ple visible minori?es 619 381 381 312 207 161 87 106 172 946 1,325 1,567 Total visible minority popula2on 6,265,000 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 14
Nearly half of the population in Toronto and Vancouver CMAs are members of a visible minority group Visible Minority as a Percent of Popula2on, 15% or Higher, 2011 Toronto Vancouver Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Edmonton Montréal Winnipeg Canada Wood Buffalo Windsor Brooks Kitchener- Cambridge- Waterloo 28 26 22 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 47 45 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 15
The emerging second generation Percentage Visible Minority Popula2on by Genera2on, Canada, 2011 First genera?on Second genera?on Third genera?on or more 8 4 2 2 9 3 2 2 2 3 2 23 43 69 53 75 90 95 96 95 23 Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 16
Education, Labour Force, and Income 17
Rising education levels Percent of Popula2on Aged 15 and Over with University Degree, Canada 21 15 11 2 3 5 8 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey and 2001 Census 18
Nearly 75% of young women have post-secondary education compared to 65% of young men 65 14 24 27 74 7 29 37 Highest Level of Schooling (%), Popula2on Aged 25-64, Canada, 2011 72 67 8 62 61 60 15 9 53 Appren?ceship or trades 17 17 31 9 cer?ficate or diploma 25 30 23 College, CEGEP * 20 26 32 28 22 22 22 19 University degree Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Age Groups *Includes university cer?ficate below Bachelors level Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 19
Some increases in family income over last decade Total Income Economic Family Units, Canada $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 1988 1997 Average Income Median Income 2008 $0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada Income Sta?s?cs 20
Trends differ by age Annual Average Percent Change in Total Income, All Family Units, Canada 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 2.3 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.5 1.8 0.8-0.9-1.4-1.4-1.4-1.5-1.7-1.2 1976-1988 1988-1997 1997-2008 2008-2011 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Income Trends 21
Multiple sources of income at older ages Share of Total Income, 2010, % 2 3 1 7 3 2 2 12 11 3 8 7 3 11 5 37 6 48 Other income Government transfer payments 75 83 89 72 28 9 33 Re?rement pensions, superannua?on and annui?es Investment income Total - sex and age groups 24 13 5 15-24 25-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Employment income Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 22
Home Ownership 23
Little change in home ownership Percentage of Homeowners by Age of Maintainers, Canada, 2011 2006 2011 68.4 69.0 69.3 69.1 75.5 74.7 77.7 77.1 76.1 76.2 67.9 70.5 51.3 52.4 Total* 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and over Age Groups *Total - Age groups of primary household maintainer Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2006 Census and 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 24
Increasing popularity of condos Percent of Dwellings that are Condominiums by Period of Construc2on, Canada, 2011 28.0 10.8 14.8 18.7 19.7 22.4 3.9 1970 or before 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2011 Age Groups Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 25
Increase in condos especially at younger ages Percent of Owner Households that are Condominium, Canada, 2011 2006 2011 11 13 15 19 11 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 17 18 All ages 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and over Age Groups Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2006 Census and 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 26
About one in four households pay more than 30% of income on shelter costs Percent of households paying more than 30% of income on shelter costs, Canada, 2011 Total housing tenure 25.1% 36.8 40.5 26.2 7.5 Owner with mortgage Owner without mortgage Renter subsidized housing Renter not subsidized housing Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 27
It s becoming a woman s world 28
Women 45+ more likely to live on their own Some with children Percent of Popula2on Not in Couple, Canada, 2011 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Male Female 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and over Age Groups Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Census 29
Young women now majority in some professional occupations Percent Female by Occupa2on, Age 25-34, Canada, 2011 Occupa2ons 10,000 or more persons where women have made large gains Biologists and related scien?sts Photographers General prac??oners and family physicians Den?sts Lawyers and Quebec notaries Chemical technologists and technicians Specialist physicians Journalists Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupa?onal health and safety Mathema?cians, sta?s?cians and actuaries Urban and land use planners Chemists Architects Paramedical occupa?ons Geoscien?sts and oceanographers Chemical engineers Construc?on inspectors Civil engineers Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 65 61 60 58 58 55 55 54 54 53 51 50 48 48 41 40 34 30 24 % Change in % Aged 25-34 vs 55-64 35 43 31 43 35 21 28 25 35 34 22 25 21 35 22 32 25 25 21 30
Males have higher incomes but gap is smaller Median Individual Total Income, Canada $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 Male Both Female $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada Income Sta?s?cs 31
Women contribute the majority of family employment income in 30% of husband-wife families Percentage of husband- wife families where wife contributes more than 50% of joint employment income, Canada 25.5 25.2 25.8 27.1 26.8 27.2 27.3 28.2 28.9 30.8 31.0 30.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wife contributes to family employment income in 80% of families Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Derived from Tax data; Cansim Table 111-0021 32
Immigrants Source: h/p://www.mosaicbc.com/looking- work/working/employment- services- immigrants- refugees- and- newcomers/ 33
High unemployment for recent immigrants Unemployment Rate, Immigrants Aged 25-64, Canada, May 2011 12.4 5.8 7.5 Total Non- immigrants 5.8% 5.4 6.3 7.0 8.3 8.3 Non immigrants Immigrants Before 1981 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2005 2006-2011 Non- permanent residents Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 34
Unemployment rates vary by visible minority group Unemployment Rate, Popula2on Aged 25-64, Canada, May 2011 % Immigrants % Non- immigrants 13.3 Not a visible minority 5.7% 4.9 4.9 7.0 7.1 4.3 4.9 8.3 8.6 8.7 9.1 6.3 6.7 6.6 8.5 10.7 11.0 9.2 9.3 6.3 Filipino Japanese Chinese Korean Southeast Asian South Asian La?n American Black West Asian Arab Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 35
Higher employment income for some groups Ra2o Group/Total Popula2on Median Employment Income, Full Time/Full Year Workers Aged 25-54, Canada, 2010 1.08 1.03 1.02 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.86 0.82 0.82 0.81 Japanese Chinese Not a visible minority West Asian South Asian Black Arab Korean La?n American Filipino Southeast Asian Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 36
Higher incomes for second generation and long term immigrants Ra2o Group/Total Popula2on Median Employment Income, Full Time/Full Year Workers Aged 25-54, Canada, 2010 Genera2on Immigrants 0.93 1.13 0.99 1.13 0.98 0.92 0.88 0.76 First genera?on Second gen Third gen or more Before 1981 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2005 2006-2009 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 37
Aboriginal Population 38
1.4 million Aboriginal persons in Canada Aboriginal Iden2ty Total 1.4 Million Inuit 59,440 4% Me?s 451,795 32% Mul?ple/Other 37,885 3% First Na?ons 851,560 61% First Na2ons Status Indian 637,660 Non Status Indian 213,900 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 39
High growth for non status First Nations Percentage Growth in Aboriginal Iden2ty Popula2on 2006-2011, Canada 61 20 23 14 16 18 Total Aboriginal First Na?ons Status Indians Non- Status Indians Me?s Inuit Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, May 8 NHS Release Aboriginal Peoples in Canada 40
Little improvement in level of education for Aboriginals. Gap with non Aboriginals widens Percent of Popula2on with Post- secondary Degrees or Diplomas Aboriginal Non Aboriginal 45 70 71 52 49 62 47 57 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Age Groups Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 41
Aboriginal population has lower labour force participation and higher unemployment rates Labour Force Par2cipa2on Rates, Popula2on Aged 25-64, Canada, May 2011 Unemployment Rate, Popula2on Aged 25-64, Canada, May 2011 % Aboriginal iden?ty % Non- Aboriginal iden?ty 76 86 68 76 14.4 11.2 6.2 5.8 Male Female Male Female Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 42
Little change in relative employment income for Aboriginal population Ra2o Group/Total Popula2on Median Employment Income, Full Time/Full Year Workers, Aged 25-64, Aboriginal Iden2ty Popula2on, Canada, 2010 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.92 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Age Groups Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, 2011 Na?onal Household Survey 43
High levels of low income for lone-parents, recent immigrants, Aboriginals and some visible minority groups Percentage of Popula2on based on Ader Tax Low Income Measure, Canada, 2010 31 34 36 15 18 13 18 10 18 22 11 25 Total Under 15 years 65 years and over Lone- parent family Total Immigrants Before 1971 1991-2000 2006-2011 Total Filipino Korean Aboriginal iden?ty visible minority popula?on 44
What s ahead 45
Population growth in Canada has been about 1% a year. Immigration accounts for about two thirds of growth 2.0% Observed and Projected Popula2on Growth, Canada Actual Projected 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 0.5% - 1.0% 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Popula?on Es?mates and Projec?ons 46
Without immigration, population would begin to decline in about 15 years 2.0% Observed and Projected Popula2on Growth, Canada Actual Projected 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 0.5% Zero immigra2on from 2012-1.0% 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Popula?on Es?mates and Projec?ons 47
However current immigration levels will mean population will continue to grow 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Observed and Projected Popula2on Growth, Canada Actual Projected Immigra2on 7.5 per 1000 popula2on Medium Projec2on 0.5% 0.0% - 0.5% Zero immigra2on from 2012-1.0% 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Popula?on Es?mates and Projec?ons Total Popula?on 2051 49 Million 48
In a few years, more seniors than children; in 20 years, seniors make up nearly a quarter of Canada s population Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Census 2021-2006, Popula?on Projec?ons 2011-2041 49
Most of the population growth will be at older ages. Age groups 15-24 and 45-54 expected to decline over next decade Projected Percent Change in Total Popula2on 2012-22 2022-32 47 52 49 38 30 14 5 15 7 12 8 12 18 20-7 - 5-10 - 9 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 and Over Age Groups Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Medium Popula?on Projec?on 50
Major life-stage decisions /changes for the Boomers Decisions related to Lifestyle Housing Labour market Income Seniors of tomorrow are very different More highly educated More culturally diverse Have small families Women have been in labour market Much uncertainty about income but inequality likely an issue 51
Expenditures lower at older ages Average Household Expenditures, Canada, 2009 $100,000 $80,000 83,370 87,762 77,312 $60,000 70,961 66,508 $40,000 48,075 34,818 $20,000 $0 Total 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Groups Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Public Use File, 2009 Survey of Financial spending 52
Aging will shift more expenditures to older ages and slow growth in total spending Percent of Households aged 55 and over Percentage Growth 2012-2022 (2009 age specific rates) Percent Change in Total Expenditures 41 46 29 16 13 5 2012 2022 Households Expenditures Households under age 55 Households aged 55 and over Source: Calcula?ons by Environics Analy?cs 53
Cultural diversity will continue to increase Projected Concentra2on of Visible Minority Popula2on Toronto 48 63 % 2011 19 O/awa- Ga?neau % 2031 32 Vancouver 46 59 Winnipeg 18 27 Abbotsford 26 39 Kitchener 17 28 Calgary Windsor 26 38 20 33 Canada 2011 +19% 2031 +31% Guelph Hamilton 16 15 25 25 Montréal 20 31 London 14 22 Edmonton 20 29 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Projec?ons of the Diversity of Canada's Popula?on, 2006-2031 54
The older population and the younger visible minority population will increase but rest of younger population will likely decline Percentage Change Visible Minority by Age, Canada, 2011-2031 Under Age 65 Age 65 and Over 227 10 80 94 79 Total Visible Minority - 9 Non Visible Minority 4,178 6,235-2,057 Change 2011-2031 (1000s) Total Visible Minority Non Visible Minority 5,378 1,335 4,043 29,530 6,194 23,336 Popula2on 2011 (1000s) 4,987 525 4,462 Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, Projec?ons of the Diversity of the Canadian Popula?on, 2006-2031 (reference scenario) 55
Summary Popula?on will con?nue to grow but the big get bigger Growth will be concentrated at higher ages but need to go beyond the numbers to understand implica?ons of aging Boomers Mom, dad and the kids no longer the typical household It s becoming a woman s world Our cultural mosaic is increasingly diverse and it s in more than Toronto and Vancouver 56
Data Quality Issues and Cautions for NHS data Gross non response rate of 50%: Data suppressed Increased cau?on for smaller areas or groups Response bias difficult to detect In 2011 NHS Imputa?on rates differ by variable Even more cau?on needed when comparing NHS data to 2006 Census; different universes, response bias, etc. Income data are par?cularly problema?c 57
Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer doug.norris@environicsanalytics.ca 613-592-3402 58