For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Overview Global equities, high-yield bonds and emerging-market assets have rebounded somewhat from their January and February lows. Monetary policy remains accommodative across advanced market economies, with the U.S. Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged in March, while the European Central Bank lowered rates further into negative territory and announced new measures. Despite sporadic upticks, most commodity prices remain soft, exerting downward pressure on inflation expectations. Chart of the Month Table of Contents Monthly highlights.2 Special focus...6 Major data releases...8 Other reports from the Prospects Group...8 Recent WB country reports...8 Annex table: economic developments....9 Annex table: trade and finance....9 Annex table: financial markets..1 Annex table: commodity prices.....1 U.S. oil production U.S crude oil production is falling, and in December recorded its first y/y decline in more than four years. Further declines are expected due to the plunge in investment and drilling which is also adversely affecting production in other non-opec countries. Offsetting these declines are expected production increases in Iran following the lifting of sanctions. Oil markets remain oversupplied, with OECD stocks reaching a record high of 1.2 billion barrels in early 216. Source: International Energy Agency. Special Focus: Spillovers in East Asia and the Pacific Countries in East Asia and Pacific (EAP) are deeply integrated with the global economy and with each other. China has become the largest trading partner and source of FDI for the region, although Japan remains one of the largest sources of FDI for several economies. Reflecting this integration, a growth slowdown in China could result in sizeable spillovers to a large number of countries, while a slowdown in Japan would primarily affect Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Slowdowns in major advanced economies outside the region also have sizeable spillovers. Prepared by John Baffes, Anh Mai Bui, Christian Eigen-Zucchi, Xinghao Gong, Eung Ju Kim, Marc Stocker, Trang Thi Thuy Nguyen, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, and Peter Williams.
Monthly Highlights March 216 Global growth: activity lackluster. With the slowing of growth in emerging market economies, the contribution to global growth from advanced economies ticked upwards in 214 and 21 (Figure 1A). However, disappointing growth outcomes during the fourth quarter of 21 in the United States and Euro Area, as well as contracting activity in Japan, contributed to a deceleration of global growth to 1. percent (q/q, annualized) in the fourth quarter, from 2.4 percent the previous quarter. High frequency indicators point to weak momentum carrying over into 216, with industrial production remaining subdued (Figure 1B). The manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes for February and March point to further contractions across major emerging markets and a slight weakening in advanced economies. United States: mixed signals. Strong job gains continue to accompany lackluster real GDP growth. Payroll employment increased 242, in February and figures for prior months were revised upwards by 3,. Net hiring over the last three months averaged about 228, per month, close to the robust job growth of 229, per month during 21, and helping maintain the unemployment rate at 4.9 percent in February (Figure 1C). At the same time, high frequency data point to moderate GDP growth in the first quarter, currently tracking at around 2-2½ percent. Industrial production data in January and February, and manufacturing surveys in March suggest that conditions could be bottoming out and capital spending may have started to strengthen again. Conditions remain in place for a continued recovery, supported by resilient consumer spending amid improving labor market conditions. Core inflation (excluding more volatile energy and food prices) has been on a gradual upward trend in recent months. Euro Area: weak trade offsetting solid domestic demand. Growth was revised up.2 percentage point to 1.3 percent (q/q saar) in the fourth quarter of 21, resulting in average growth for the full year of 1.6 percent. Domestic demand for the fourth quarter was solid, with consumer spending up.9 percent (q/q saar), government consumption up 2.2 percent (boosted by refugee-related spending), and capital spending up.4 percent (helped by mild weather). Solid domestic demand was partly offset by sluggish export growth (.9 percent during the second half of 21) and robust import growth (4.3 percent). High-frequency data for the first quarter of 216 suggest modestly strengthening activity in manufacturing and services (industrial production growth rebounded to 2.8 percent y/y in January, retail sales growth rose to 2 percent y/y in January, and the flash services PMI increased to 4 in February). Rising uncertainties in recent months (including the terrorist attacks in Brussels, the influx of asylum seekers and the uncertainty surrounding a referendum on the United Kingdom s membership in the European Union) could weigh on confidence in the months ahead. Both headline and core inflation remained subdued up to February. Japan: more weakness. After contracting by 1.1 percent in the final quarter of 21, the economy showed further signs of weakness in recent months. Surveys generally remain downbeat, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to a nine-month low in March, and the service sector PMI falling to an eight-month low. Real consumption, domestic machinery orders and real exports, however, showed some signs of stabilization at the start of 216. Despite weak and volatile growth, labor market conditions continue to tighten against the backdrop of a shrinking and aging population. The unemployment rate declined further to 3.2 percent in January, the active job openings-to-applicants ratio has risen steadily, and the perception of labor shortages has heightened to levels last seen in 1992. Headline inflation continued to hover around zero, and there are concerns that the ongoing Shunto wage negotiations might only deliver limited gains in base pay amidst persistently low inflation expectations and external risks. China: easing outflows. Activity indicators in the first two months of 216 point to further slowing and rebalancing, (calibrated by policy stimulus). Industrial production growth was.4 percent (y/y) in both January and February, decelerating from.9 percent in December. Retail sales and fixed investment continue to grow robustly, with both sectors expanding at double digits in the first two months of 216, buoyed by strong consumer confidence and policy stimulus (even as domestic credit eased from January highs). While consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.3 percent (y/y) in February, producer prices declined further, but at a slower pace, suggesting that they may have bottomed out (Figure 1D). Efforts to move towards greater exchange rate flexibility and capital account liberalization continue to pose complex policy challenges. Foreign exchange reserves fell by $28.6 billion to $3.2 trillion in February 216, considerably less than the dramatic declines of $1 billion in January and $18 billion in December and providing an indication that outflows have moderated. As the renminbi depreciates against the U.S. dollar, Chinese corporations are replacing foreign short-term debt by domestic debt and diversifying their assets. Monetary policy: more easing. In response to weak global growth prospects, softening inflation expectations, and financial market turmoil, major central banks have maintained low rates or shifted towards further accommodation at 2
March 216 their March rate setting meetings. The U.S. Federal Reserve left the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at.2 -. percent, noting that parts of the U.S. economy softened towards the end of 21 and at the beginning of 216. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut Euro Area deposit rates by 1 basis points to -.4 percent, and announced new measures that include expanding the quantitative easing (QE) program to 8 billion per month (from 6 billion), widening the range of eligible assets for QE to include non-bank corporate bonds, and launching a new series of longterm loans to banks. The ECB president noted that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time. Despite historically low unemployment and growth in line with potential, the Bank of England left policy interest rates for the U.K. unchanged at. percent and the stock of purchased assets at 37 billion, pointing to subdued inflation and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming referendum on U.K. membership in the European Union. While the Bank of Japan also left the policy interest rate at -.1 percent and the annual rate of quantitative easing unchanged at about 8 trillion, the authorities decided to expand the range of assets that may be purchased through the program to include exchange-traded funds and Japanese real estate investment trusts. Central bank authorities in advanced market economies are seeking to avoid inflation expectations becoming entrenched at excessively low levels (Figure 1E). Global trade: sluggish. Global merchandise trade was subdued in 21, as import demand fell in commodity exporters, and weakened in China due to slowing activity and economic rebalancing (Figure 1F). Last year s merchandize trade growth of 1.7 percent almost matched the post-crisis low reached during the Euro Area crisis in 212. Services trade appeared more resilient, supported by strengthening consumer spending and rising purchasing power among major oil importing economies. The volume of world trade fell by.4 percent (m/m) in January 216, and is expected to remain weak in 216, despite some offsetting effect from services trade growth. Emerging market assets: rally through March. Emerging market (EM) assets continued to rally through mid-march, reversing the losses of the first few weeks of 216. The EM bonds and FX indexes jumped to four-month highs in March, and EM stocks have turned positive for the year after falling as much as 11 percent in just the first three weeks of 216 (Figure 2A). However, the recent rally in EM assets contrasts with the current subdued outlook for EM economies. Against the backdrop of persistent concerns about EM growth, further volatility is to be expected. Capital flows: rebound. The rally in equity prices has been accompanied by a rebound in capital inflows to emerging markets, which in March registered the first net inflows to EM bond and equity funds since December (Figure 2B). However, a sustained recovery of inflows is likely to require long-term improvements in economic fundamentals. After posting the slowest first two months in over five years, bond issuance activity also picked up in March, as the persistently low yield environment in advanced economies and stabilization in commodity prices have pushed borrowing costs significantly lower (Figure 2C). However, the market environment is likely to remain volatile as rating momentum in emerging markets continues to trend downwards. Exchange rates: strengthening. Emerging market currencies have rallied recently as stabilizing commodity prices and a more dovish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve boosted investor appetite for riskier assets. A gauge of 2 developing-country currencies against the dollar rose to a four-month high in mid-march, led by the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso. The index is up over 3 percent this year after plunging by more than 3 percent during the past three years. Several commodity exporters have devalued their currencies and/or moved to managed floating regimes (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia), and some non-commodity exporters have also followed the same path (Egypt, Turkey). After initial bouts of volatility and weakening, their exchange rates appear to be stabilizing. Commodity prices: seeking a floor amid abundant supplies. The weakness of commodity prices, especially energy, persisted into early 216 (Figure 2D). Oil prices rose from under $3/bbl in January to $37/bbl during the first half of March on improved sentiment fed by an uptick in Chinese demand indicators, a weaker U.S. dollar, and supply outages in a number of countries (Iraq, Nigeria, UAE). More importantly, December 21 marked the first reported year-onyear decline in U.S. oil production in more than four years (Chart of the Month). Despite discussion among producers to freeze output at January levels, the price rally stalled as the market remains oversupplied with large stocks, particularly in the U.S. OECD stocks reached a record high of 1.2 billion barrels in early 216 (Figure 2E). Metal prices have also risen from January lows on expectations of firming demand and production cuts. Markets remain oversupplied with large stocks, however, and capacity continues to rise, especially for iron ore and copper. Agricultural prices continued their downward trend in early 216, mainly due to ample supplies (Figure 2F) that reflect surpluses accumulated during the past two seasons, along with a balanced market in 21-16. In addition to well-supplied markets, the weakness in agricultural prices has been aided by lower energy prices (agriculture is an energy intensive sector) and the plateauing of demand for biofuels. Fears that El Niño could disrupt food supplies did not materialize, apart from some local supply disruptions, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and Pacific. 3
March 216 Figure 1: Global growth, employment, inflation, and trade A. Global growth and contribution B. Industrial production Year-on-year, percent United States Euro Area Japan 2 EME BRICS 1 C. U.S. job creation and unemployment D. China producer and consumer prices Percent 1s Percent, year-on-year 9 Non-farm Payroll Gains (RHS) 4 9 Producer Price Index 8 Unemployment Rate 3 7 Consumer Price Index 7 3 6 3 2 1 2 4-1 1 3-3 2 1-1 -7 212 213 214 21 216 E. Inflation expectations F. World merchandise trade growth 1 - -1 Jan-12 Jan-1 May-12 Jul-1 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jan-12 May-13 Jul-12 Sep-13 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jul-13 May-14 Jan-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Jan-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Jan-16 Sources: World Bank; Haver Analytics, CPB World Trade Monitor, World Bank. A: EMDE Commodity exporters are countries in the World Bank s classification of Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDE) where, on average in 212-14, either (i) total commodities exports accounted for 3 percent or more of total exports or (ii) exports of any single commodity accounted for 2 percent or more of total exports. Countries for which these thresholds were met as a result of re-exports were excluded. EMDE Non-commodity exporters are the rest of the EMDE group. B: The latest observations are December 21. Data are year-on-year growth rates, seasonally adjusted. C: The latest observations are February 216. Data are seasonally adjusted. D: The latest observations are February 216. Data are not seasonally adjusted. E: Inflation expectations are defined as the -year ahead -year rate of inflation compensation derived from the inflation swaps market in the given countries. The latest observations are March, 216. 4
March 216 Figure 2: Capital flows, oil prices, and other emerging market indicators A. Emerging markets financial assets B. Flows into EM bond and equity markets Index (Jan.2 21 =1) EM equties $ billion 11 EM equity fund EM bonds EM bond fund 11 EM FX 3 1 1 1-1 9-3 9-8 -7 8 Jan-1 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-16 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-16 C. Emerging market bond spreads D. Commodity prices EM sovereign bond yields, percent US$ nominal, 21=1 8 1 7 6 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-16 1,1 13 11 9 7 3 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Agriculture Energy Metals E. OECD crude oil stocks F. Global grain production and consumption Million barrels Billion metric tons 1,2 OECD crude oil stocks 2.3 year average Production 2.1 Consumption 1.9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-16 1, 1.7 1. 9 1.3 27 29 211 213 21 2 23 26 29 212 21 Sources: World Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, IEA A: The latest observations are March, 216. B: The latest observations are the week ending March 16, 216. Weekly net inflows into EM equity and bond funds. C: The latest observation is March, 216. D: Grain includes maize, wheat and rice. The latest observations are February, 216. E: The latest observations are January, 216.
Special Focus: Spillovers in East Asia and Pacific March 216 Extensive economic integration: substantial spillovers. EAP is characterized by deep regional and global integration through trade and investment flows, which has fostered growth. These ties are also conduits for the transmission of growth fluctuations, in particular from China and Japan. Such transmission can arise from direct economic links and common shifts of investor sentiment across the region. China s gradual slowdown over the past year has been accompanied by market volatility and real-sector headwinds. The findings suggest that spillovers from growth fluctuations in China are sizeable, and affect a wide range of countries. For now, spillovers arise primarily through trade channels, given the region s deeply integrated supply chains, and more limited intra-regional, non-fdi financial flows. Spillovers from growth shocks in Japan are modest in general, but more pronounced in Thailand, which relies heavily on FDI from Japan. Economic openness: integrated through trade and investment. The region accounts for about 2 percent of global trade, and its economies are among the most integrated into global value chains. Intra-regional trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are substantial: in 214, countries within the region accounted for 1 percent of the region s trade and 44.1 percent of its FDI inflows (Figure 3A&B). Since 2, intra-regional trade has gradually tilted from Japan to China for commodity importers and exporters alike, and China is an increasingly important source of final demand for the rest of the region, for both commodities and manufactures. Developing EAP accounts for more than half of all FDI inflows to developing regions, and China was the world s largest recipient of FDI in 214, as well as the second-largest source of FDI after the United States. Remittance flows are also important in several countries (Figure 3C). Estimating spillovers: modelling approach. To capture direct and indirect spillovers, a country-specific Bayesian structural vector auto-regression model is estimated, using quarterly data from 1998Q1 21Q2. For each country, the variables included are as follows, in the order they are used in the model: growth in the G7 (excluding Japan); the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index; growth in Japan, China, and Korea; trade-weighted average commodity prices; growth in the affected country; and the real effective exchange rate of the affected country. The model estimates the direct growth impact, through all channels, but may underestimate nonlinearities including through confidence effects. Spillovers are measured as the cumulative response of growth to a 1 percentage point decline in growth in China or Japan, upon impact, after one year, and after two years. Spillovers from China. A one-off, 1-percentage-point decline in China's growth rate reduces growth particularly sharply in the trading hub of Singapore and in Hong Kong SAR, China (Figure 3D). After two years, their growth rates also decrease by around 1 percentage point. Growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand decreases by around.4 percentage point. Japan and Korea are affected to a much smaller degree. The magnitude of spillovers from China would be more pronounced if growth fluctuations are amplified via the confidence channel. In a historical decomposition, pre-crisis, China s growth appears to have contributed significantly to growth in the rest of the region. In contrast since 211, the slowdown in China has weighed on activity in the rest of the region. Spillovers from Japan. Spillovers from Japan are considerably smaller. A 1 percentage-point decline in Japan's growth reduces growth by.8 percentage point in Singapore,. percentage point in Thailand (which has deep FDI links with Japan) and Hong Kong SAR, China, and.3 percentage point in Malaysia (Figure 3E). Spillovers from the G7. Shocks to growth from major advanced countries outside the region, such as the G7 (excluding Japan), also have a material impact. The most open and diversified regional economies including Hong Kong SAR, China, Singapore, Japan, and Malaysia are particularly vulnerable to growth fluctuations in the G7 (excluding Japan, Figure 3F). Quantitatively, the spillovers on EAP countries from a 1 percentage-point decline in growth in G7 countries (excluding Japan) are in several cases more than twice as large as the spillovers from an equivalent slowdown in China, and seven times as large as the spillovers from Japan. The sizeable implications of G7 (excluding Japan) growth shocks reflect both the globally diversified nature of the region s exports, and the amplification of these shocks through their impact on China and Japan. 6
Figure 3: Spillovers in East Asia and Pacific A. Export destinations, 214 B. FDI inflows, 28-212 Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 2 Exports to region 4 FDI outside of region Exports to outside region 16 3 FDI from region 12 2 8 1 4 Singapore Hong Kong SAR, Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Korea, Rep. Philippines New Zealand Fiji Mongolia Australia Indonesia China Japan Tonga E. Response of growth to 1 percentage point decline in growth in Japan Percentage point.4 March 216 C. Remittance inflows, 214 D. Response of growth to 1 percentage point decline in growth in China Percent of GDP 3 Remittances from outside the region 2 Remittances from the region 2 1 1 -.4 -.8-1.2-1.6 Tonga Singapore Samoa Kiribati Hong Kong SAR, China Fiji Thailand Timor-Leste Malaysia Solomon Islands Korea, Rep. Philippines Cambodia Indonesia Vietnam China F. Impact on growth of a 1 percentage point decline in G7 (excluding Japan) growth Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), WB, UN Comtrade, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). A-C. The EAP region includes American Samoa, Cambodia, China, Fiji, Indonesia, Japan, Kiribati, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Thailand, Timor Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Vietnam. D-F. Based on a Bayesian structural VAR model. The maximum data coverage is 1998Q1-21Q2; time series coverage for some countries is shorter. The model is estimated for each spillover destination country. For instance, when Thailand is the spillover destination country, the variables are included, in the following Cholesky ordering: G-7 growth, EMBI, Japan s growth, China s growth, Korea s growth, Thailand s trade-weighted commodity prices, Thailand s growth, and Thailand s real effective exchange rates. Global spillovers refer to spillovers from the G7 countries. The model includes a dummy that captures the global financial crisis of 28-9. Further details of the model, including the construction of the trade weighted commodity prices, are provided in Annex 3.2 of Chapter 3. Solid bars represent the median responses and the errors bars represent the 33-66 percent confidence bands. Hong Kong SAR, Mongolia Singapore Thailand Indonesia China Philippines Korea, Rep. Japan 7
March 216 Major data releases Major Data Releases 24 February, 216-31 March 216 Upcoming releases: 29 March, 216-31 April 216 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Eurozone 2/2/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) JAN.3 %.4 %.2 % Sweden 3/29/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) FEB 4. % Spain 2/2/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 3. % 3. % 3.4 % Czech Republic 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 4.7 % UK 2/2/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 1.9 % 1.9 % 2.1 % Turkey 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4.4 % Sweden 2/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 4. % 3.3 % 3.9 % UK 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 2.1 % Greece 2/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 -.8 % -2 % -1.7% Brazil 4/8/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 1.36 % Denmark 2/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4.6 %.3 %. % China 4/1/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 2.3 % Belgium 2/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 1.4 % 1.3 % 1.3 % United States 4/14/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 1. % South Africa 3/1/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4.6 % 1.3 % 1. % Netherland 4/1/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) FEB -2. % Australia 3/1/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 3. % 2.9 % 2. % New Zealand 4/17/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) Q1.1 % Switzerland 3/2/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4.4 % -.1 %.8 % Poland 4/19/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) MAR 3.9 % Brazil 3/3/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 -.9 % -6. % -4. % South Africa 4/2/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 7. % Italy 3/4/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 1. %.1 %.8 % Philippines 4/2/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 6.3 % Bulgaria 3/8/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 3. % 3.1 % 2.9 % Hong Kong 4/21/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 3.1 % Hungary 3/8/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 3. % 3.2 % 2.6% Canada 4/22/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 1.4 % Eurozone 3/8/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 1.6 % 1. % 1.6 % Singapore 4/2/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR -.8 % New Zealand 3/16/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 2.3 % 1.9 % 2.3 % Australia 4/26/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) Q1 1.7 % Singapore 3/23/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB -.8 % -.4 % -.6 % United States 4/28/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 2. % South Africa 3/23/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 7. % 6.6 % 6.2 % France 4/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 1.4 % Mexico 3/23/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN.2 % 4. % 3.4 % Spain 4/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 3. % Netherland 3/2/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.9 % Austria 4/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 1.1 % United States 3/2/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 2. % 1 % 2.1 % Belgium 4/29/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 1.4 % Other reports from the Prospects Group Policy Research Note No.3: Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies Policy Research Note No.4: Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness? Global Economic Prospects January 216: Spillovers amid Weak Growth Commodity Markets Outlook January 216 Recent World Bank Working Papers Estimating international poverty lines from comparable national thresholds Access to finance and job growth : firm-level evidence across developing countries Growth, urbanization, and poverty reduction in India Capital flows and central banking : the Indian experience Egypt : guiding reform of energy subsidies long-term The political economy of direct dividend transfers in resource-rich countries : a theoretical consideration The political economy of bank lending : evidence from an emerging market Globalization of labor markets and the growth prospects of nations Learning or leaning : persistent and transitory growth spillovers from FDI Recent World Bank Country Updates Russia Monthly Economic Developments - March 216 Brazil Monthly Economic Update - March 216 8
March 216 Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 214 21 214 21 216 212 213 214 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2. 3.3 2.2 2.4 4. 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.8 3.3 3. 2.8 3.4 2.7 2. 2. 2.3 2. 2.6 2.1 2.6 1.8 2.2 1.7.9 1.8 - High Income Countries.6.3 2.1.4. 3.2 2. -1..6 -.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 2. 1.7 1.4 1. 1.1.8 1.3.9 1.4.9 1.1.6 -.9. - Developing Countries 6.8.9.2 4.9.2.2 1.1.1 3. 4.2 6....4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4. 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 - East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9. 7. 7.6 6. 8.3 2.3 6.. 8.1 7. 7. 6.4 7.3 6. 6.1.8.9. 6.2.6.8.1.3.8.3..6 East Asia x. China 6..6 2.9 6.9 4.4 7.7-1.3 2.7 4.1 8.2.4 4. 2.8 4.8 4.3 2.4 6.6.1 1.8 3.1 4. 3.8 2. 3.7 4.2 2.2.7 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.2 3.4.3 1.7 -.4 1.8.7 3.1 6.2 2.8 2.9 2. 1. -.8 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 3.7.9 4. 2.7 3.6 3.9. 4.4 - Latin America and Caribbean -.3 1.2 -.3-3.3 -.1-1. -.2-4. -4.8-6. -.9 -.4-1. -1. -2.3-2.6-2.7-2.9-3.2-2. -3. -3.7-4. -.1 -. -4.8-3.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 6. -7.6-1. -.3 26.8.3-16.1 11.4 8.7-17.6 1.7 13.2 7.9 -. -..9 4.6 7. 1.8 1.4 1.4-1.3 1.. - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.9 1. -1.6 12.1 8.1 2. -9. 3. -1..9 4.4 3.4.1 3.4 4.3 4.3.6 4.2 7.7 3.6 1.3-1.4.. - Sub-Saharan Africa 2.7.8 -.1 2.2-6.6 9.9-1.4-4.9.9-2.1.9 1. -.6.6-1.1. 3.8-1.7 -.3 -.8..8.6 -.8-1.4.1 -.1 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.1 3. 2.9 3. 3.. 7.3 3. 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 3. 3.3 3.1 3. 3.9 4.4.. 6.4 7.4 8.1 7.9 7.4 Developing Countries.3.1 4. 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.2 4. 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8.1.3 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3. 2.6 2.9 2. 2.2 1.9 2. 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2. 2. 2.2 1.9 2. 2.2 2.4 2. 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2. Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7. 7.7 8. 7.7 6.7 6.4.8 7.2 7.9 8. 8. 7.2 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7.9..7 6.2 6. 7.2 7.9 8. 8. Latin America and Caribbean 4.8.1.1 4.9.3.3.8 6.4 6.9 7..4.3.3.2.4.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.8 8. 8. Middle East and N. Africa 6.6.3. 3.9.7.8.1.8 4. 4.9.8 6.2.8.4 4.7.2.. 6.4. 4.4 4.3. 4.6 4.7.3.1 - South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2. 4.8 3.7..8 4.8 3. 4.4.1.1 4.9 4.6 4.8.1 3. 3.6 4.1 4.7.1.3.4.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 9. 6.6 6. 6.6 6.6 6.2 6. 6. 7. 7.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6. 6. 6.1 6.4 6. 6.8 6.9 6.9 7. 7.3 7. 8. 8.7 1. 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 214 21 214 21 216 212 213 214 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World.1 2. 1.1 3.9.8-1.1-2.2-3.7 -.9-7.6 2.7-1.1-4.1-3.7-1.2-6.3-12.6-13.2-13.1-7.8-13.2-13.4-12.1-12. -1.9-9. -1.8 - High Income Countries -1. 1..7 1.2-3.3-17.9-26.1-2.4-7. -8.6.8-3.1 -.9 -.2-11.6-12. -12.7-14.7-14.9-9. -14.3-14.8-12.9-13.1-1.9-1.8-1.4 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 1.4 1.7-8.8-23.2-6.2-2. -.3 7. 3.4 -.1 -.2-7.1 8.6-12.4-9.8-9.1-4. -1.8-1.2-1.4-11.3-1.8-6.6-11.8 - East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6. 4.6 19.1 17.1-1.8-14.7-11.2 3. -2. 12. 7.8 3.2.2-3. 29.7-11. -6.4-4.3.7-7.7-6.2 -.4-7.9-7.6-3.9-11.7-21. Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -.3-1. -8.2-11. -27.8-16.2-1.8-9.8-1.7-2.4-6.1-1.7-14.2-13.6-16.6-18.6-16.7-21. -1.9-21.2-16.7-14.9-14. -1.6-13.1-17.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.4.6. 7. 1.6-22.2-17.3-4.6-9.8-8.7 1.1-3. -7. -6.2-7.7-12.4 -. -11.9-14. -7.1-11.2-16. -14.1-1.8-1.9-9. -12. - Middle East and N. Africa. -11.1-7.4-1. 26. -11.2-9.8 - - - 2. 16. -3.4-1.1-1.3-21.8-18.1-11.1 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 6.1 2.9-2.4-43.1-1.4-1. -.7. -6.2 9.3 -.9-7.2-1.8-17.2-13. -16.7-1.2-1.2-1.7-22.4-1. -22.9-12.2-11.3-3.3 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4-1.1 -. -13.9.3-2.1-2.7 1.4-2.9 - -2. -7.6-7. -8.9-2.2-28.7-18.8-23.3-1.41-19.8-23.2-21.2-28.2 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World.6 1.6 1.2-2.8-1.1-1.7-27. -4.4-4.2-8.1 3.8-2.2-4.2-3.6-13. -12.9-11.4-14.2-1.2-9. -13. -12.4-1.1-13.1-1.3-11.4-11.7 - High Income Countries -1.. 1.8 -.7-4.4-17.8-2.8-3.8-3.2-8.6 2.3-3.4 -.3-4.1-12.9-13. -12.4-14.9-1.2-1.2-14. -11.8-13.3-11.8-9.4-11.4-1. - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -.1-7. 6.9-1.7-31.1 -.8-6.6-6.8 7.2.7-1.7-2. -13.1-12.7-9. -12. -1.4-6. -9.3-13.8-19.3-16.3-12.2-11.2-16. - East Asia and Pacific.6 6.1 -.4-14. 8.2-12. -34.3-2. -4.2-2.7 6.6 2.4 -.7-4.3-16.7-17. -9. -14. -1.8 -.3-9. -14.2-19.6-18.1-8.6-9.1-16.1-1.6 Europe and Central Asia.7 2. -6.2-7.3-9.1-1.9-26.3-19.3-16.3-4.1 -.4-8.3-9. -1. -1.1-13. -12. -17.4-18.4-14.3-14.9-17.7-22.4-13.8-19.2-17.7-17.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 1.2 4. -7.7-1.6-16.6-6. -1.9 8.8-3.1 2. 4.3-6.7-7.3 -.3-1. -14.2-3.3-9.7-11.9-13.2-13. -11.2-16.6-17.2 - Middle East and N. Africa 1.8 4. 1. -7. 11.3-17.6-22.1 - - - 4.8-1. -4.4-2.2-11. -7. -11.3-7.7 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4. -3.7 1.1 1.7 26. -9. -48.4 1.7 -.7-14.7 23.2 6.6 21.3-1. -11.1-11. -12.8-7. -12.1-1.3-9.3-11.3-24. -18.6-2.6-3.6-7.8-4.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8.9. 17.7-2.1 3.1-26.4 - - - 9. 4. 3.1 7.8-1.8 1.9-9.9-1.7 - - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2-1.9.7-1.9-1. -.4.4. -1.6-1.4 -.7.1 -.8.3 -.1 -.6.8 -.3 -.1 -.6.2.4 -. -1.2.2.2 - Developing Countries. 8.7 -.2 1. -1.9-1.7-2. -.1-4. -3. -1.7 -.7 -.2 -.8 -.7 -.2-1.6.7 -.6 -.2-1. -1.8-1.3.3-2. -1.8-2.1 -.2 East Asia and Pacific 4. 12.2.2 1.2-2. -1.4-2.8 -.8-4.9-4.4-2.1 -.8 -.3 -.4 -.8 -.2-1.9.6 -.9 -.4-1.3-2.4-1.2.4-2.3-2.6-2.7 -.3 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3. -8.2 4.2 -. -7.2-6.2 1. 1.3-4.4-1.4-1. -1.1-4.7-1.7-2.8-1.9.9..2.7 1.4 -.8. -1. -3. -.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1. -1.8 -.1.7-3.2-1.3.2 -.1.4-2.2.4 -.6..7 -.1.1 -.4 -.8-2. -.8-1.3.8 -.2 -.1 Middle East and N. Africa.9 3. -1.2-2.2-3.8-2.8-6. 1.6 - - -2.3 -.3.3-2.9-3.3 -.4-2.3 1.7 -.64.2 - - - - - - - - South Asia.4 -.2 11.3.6 -.6 2.1.9 4.7 -.8.9-1.4. -.3 1.9 1.8 3.2.8 1. 1.7 1. -. -.3..9 -.4.7 -.9 -.3 9
March 216 Financial Markets 21 216 MRV 1 214 21 Q1 Q2 Q3 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective.9.13.11.13.14.11.12.12.13.13.1.14.12.12.24.36.37.37 ECB repo.16................. US$ LIBOR 3-months.23.32.26.28.31.27.28.28.28.29.32.33.32.37.4.62.62.63 EURIBOR 3-months.6 -.2. -.1 -.3.3.1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.4 -. -.9 -.13 -.1 -.18 -.24 US 1-yr Treasury yield 2.3 2.12 1.97 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.92 2.19 2.3 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.4 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.9 German Bund, 1 yr 1.24.4.3.3.7.26.16.8.83.76.66.68...9.1.23.18 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 33 412 42 38 423 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 446 413 413 434 Asia 26 224 219 21 233 28 26 19 23 212 212 2 246 23 2 23 23 236 Europe 287 338 399 336 34 384 3 327 33 328 328 347 332 294 31 294 294 314 Latin America & Caribbean 47 4 37 487 6 21 488 471 4 27 27 8 82 3 6 3 3 76 Middle East 388 461 449 42 447 443 441 49 41 42 42 479 2 3 12 3 3 38 Africa 323 422 373 3 42 371 361 34 38 374 374 472 49 482 63 482 482 1 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 417 399 42 424 382 42 436 43 424 427 43 382 411 47 399 37 372 392 High-Income ($ Index) 171 1663 1741 1736 182 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 169 182 176 1694 1663 162 147 1622 United States (S&P-) 29 244 268 263 192 268 286 217 263 214 1992 192 279 28 244 194 1932 236 Euro Area (S&P-3$) 141 1474 1624 12 14 1624 1618 163 12 1614 1478 14 123 18 1474 1381 1347 131 Japan (Nikkei-22) 16292 16292 1927 2236 17388 1927 192 263 2236 28 18812 17388 1983 19921 1718 1989 16892 Developing Markets (MSCI) 96 794 97 972 792 97 148 14 972 92 882 792 848 814 794 742 74 814 EM Asia 47 44 481 47 391 481 14 499 47 44 433 391 422 48 44 374 369 42 EM Europe 297 244 32 311 29 32 338 32 311 293 28 29 273 263 244 237 241 267 EM Europe & Middle East 27 211 28 266 226 28 286 271 266 23 246 226 23 222 211 22 28 227 EM Latin America & Caribbe 2728 183 241 217 189 241 2693 2496 217 23 226 189 27 1919 183 1744 184 281 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area.7.9.89.9.9.92.92.9.9.91.89.89.89.93.92.92.9.9 Japan 1.89 121. 119.16 121.38 122.6 12.37 119.3 12.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 12.1 12.1 122.61 121.6 118.4 114.4 112.86 Developing Brazil 2.3 3.33 2.87 3.7 3. 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.1 3.23 3.3 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.6 3.97 3.68 China 6.16 6.29 6.24 6.2 6.31 6.24 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.3 6.37 6.4 6.7 6. 6.2 Egypt 7.8 7.7 7.49 7.61 7.82 7.6 7.6 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.88 India 61.3 64.14 62.24 63.43 64.97 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.6 6.9 66.16 6.4 66.1 66.4 67.31 68.22 66.64 Russia 38.8 61.34 62.87 2.69 63.62 6.13 2.82.6 4.6 7.3 66.23 67.1 63.31 6.1 7.19 77.36 77.23 68.41 South Africa 1.8 12.77 11.74 12.8 13.3 12.8 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 1.4 16.3 1.79 1.46 Memo: USA nominal effective ra 11.8. 12.7 121.87 12.8 122.1 121.76 121.4 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.2 126.92 128.1... 131. 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 28 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 21 21 216 MRV 214 21 Q1 Q2 Q3 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 96 1 2 6 48 3 7 63 61 4 4 46 47 43 37 3 31 38 Non - Oil Index 2 7 62 66 64 6 6 64 6 63 63 9 8 9 6 6 4 6 9 Metals and Minerals Index 3 88 68 74 74 6 73 73 76 72 67 64 6 64 9 7 6 9 6 Baltic Dry Index 4 113 711 614 629 97 76 91 96 699 97 161 889 79 82 1 391 37 46 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 211 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 21 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 4 Base Date = May 1, 198 1