Stock Market Briefing: S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals October 31, Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-2-3 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 32-4-30 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 00/0/00 Annual Earnings 3 S&P 00/0/00 Annual Revenues 4 S&P 00/0/00 Annual Margins S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 0 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Earnings S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth S&P 00/0/00 Indexes & Forward Earnings S&P 00/0/00 Forward Revenues & Margins S&P 00/0/00 P/Es 13 S&P 00/0/00 P/Sales S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins S&P 0 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 1 S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 1 S&P 00/0/00 Blue Angels S&P 00 Forward Revenues & Earnings October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
S&P 00/0/00 Annual Earnings 2 0 0 1 Figure 1. S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* / 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 Frwd Oct.1 1.42.3.23 Oct. 1.30.22.4 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 0 0 1 0 S&P 0 / 0 1 0 Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* 0 0 Frwd Oct 3.2.33 1.3 4.2 Oct 3.0. 0. 4.4 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 0 S&P 00 Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* / 0 Frwd Oct 4. 2. 0.2 1.3 Oct 4.1 2. 0.4 1.41 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Page 3 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
S&P 00/0/00 Annual Revenues 00 00 Figure 2. S&P 00 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 00 00 1300 1300 10 00 Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 10 00 00 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 00 00 00 S&P 0 / 00 00 00 00 00 Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 00 00 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 00 10 0 S&P 00 / 10 0 00 00 4 Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 4 30 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year. 30 Page 4 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
S&P 00/0/00 Annual Margins 13 Figure 3. S&P 00 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 13 / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.3) 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 S&P 0 / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) 4 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 S&P 00 4 / 4 Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) 4 3 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 3 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
0 Figure 4. S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 0 0 Annual Forward* 0 1 1 0 0 0 Frwd Oct.1 1.42.3.23 Oct. 1.30.22.4 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 0 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. 44 Figure. S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: QUARTERLY FORECASTS (analysts consensus estimates, dollars, weekly) 44 42 42 Q4 3 Q3 3 3 Q2 By Quarter as of // 3 34 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 3.0 NA. 42.4 Oct 3.0 NA 41.0 42.30 34 32 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 32 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
1 Figure. S&P 0 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 0 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE* (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) / 1 Annual 2-Week Forward* 4 4 Frwd Oct 3.2.33 1.3 4.2 Oct 3.0. 0. 4.4 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus earnings estimates. 32 Figure. S&P 0 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) 32 30 30 2 Q4 2 2 24 Q3 Q2 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct. 2.4 2.1 30. Oct. 2.4 2. 2. 2 24 22 Q1 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 22 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
0 Figure. S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) 0 Annual 2-Week Forward* / Frwd Oct 4. 2. 0.2 1.3 Oct 4.1 2. 0.4 1.41 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. 1 1 Figure. S&P 00 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct.3 13.4.1. Oct.3 13.4.4. 1 1 13 Q4 Q3 13 Q2 Q1 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
44 42 Figure. S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) 44 42 3 Q4 Q3 3 3 Q2 By Quarter as of // 3 34 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 3.0 41.00. 42.4 Oct 3.0 41.00 41.0 42.30 34 32 32 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P 0 32 32 30 30 2 Q4 2 2 24 22 1 Q3 Q2 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct. 2.4 2.1 30. Oct. 2.4 2. 2. Q1 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P 00 2 24 22 1 13 Q4 Q3 Q2 13 Q1 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct.3 13.4.1. Oct.3 13.4.4. I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
2 2 24 22 S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth Figure. S&P 00 CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH (consensus analysts estimates in percent, weekly) 2 2 24 22 1 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q3 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 23.2. 21. 1. Oct 23.2. 22. 1.4 1 30 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P 0 30 Q1 By Quarter as of // Q4 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 2..0 22.. Oct 2..0 22.3 1. 4 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P 00 4 3 30 Q1 3 30 Q2 Q3 Q4 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 34..2 2.3 2. Oct 34..2 2.. I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
330 20 0 20 0 130 Figure. S&P 00/0/00 Indexes & Forward Earnings S&P 00/0/00 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (daily, ratio scale) /30 330 20 0 20 0 130 0 0 0 0 0 S&P Stock Price Indexes S&P 00 LargeCap (22.3) S&P 0 MidCap (.3) S&P 00 SmallCap (0.0) 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 Source: Standard & Poor s. 0 0 10 Figure 13. S&P 00/0/00 FORWARD EARNINGS (dollars per share, ratio scale) / 0 10 130 130 0 0 0 0 Forward Earnings* S&P 00 LargeCap (.4) S&P 0 MidCap (4.4) S&P 00 SmallCap (1.41) 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
Figure. S&P 00/0/00 Forward Revenues & Margins S&P 00/0/00 FORWARD REVENUES (dollars per share, ratio scale) / 4 Forward Revenues* S&P 00 LargeCap (03) S&P 0 MidCap (4) S&P 00 SmallCap (0) 4 2 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 2 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. 13 Figure. S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS* (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) / 13 Forward Profit Margins* S&P 00 (.3) S&P 0 (.) S&P 00 (.) 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 3 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year using forward earnings divided by forward revenues. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
2 2 Figure 1. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (weekly) S&P 00/0/00 P/Es 2 2 24 24 22 22 1 /2 1 S&P 00 LargeCap (.2) S&P 0 MidCap (.4) S&P 00 SmallCap (.2) 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. 2 2 Figure 1. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) 2 2 24 22 S&P 00 LargeCap (.3) S&P 0 MidCap (.) S&P 00 SmallCap (.) 24 22 1 /30 1 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Daily stock price index divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page 13 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
S&P 00/0/00 P/Sales 2.4 2.2 2.0 1. Figure. FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (weekly) S&P 00 LargeCap (1.) S&P 0 MidCap (1.) S&P 00 SmallCap (0.1) / 2.4 2.2 2.0 1. 1. 1. 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0.....4 04 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1.4 * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected revenues per share. 2.4 2.2 2.0 Figure. FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) S&P 00 LargeCap (1.1) S&P 0 MidCap (1.1) S&P 00 SmallCap (0.4) 2.4 2.2 2.0 /30 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0. 13 1 1. * Daily stock price index divided by 2-week forward consensus expected revenues per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
00 00 1300 Figure. S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins S&P 00 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 00 00 1300 10 00 Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 10 00 00 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 00 2 0 0 S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 0 13 S&P 00 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 13 / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.3) 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
S&P 0 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 00 00 Figure 21. S&P 0 / 00 00 00 00 00 Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 00 00 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 00 0 130 1 0 S&P 0 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 0 130 1 0 0 0 0 Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* 0 30 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 30 S&P 0 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) 4 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 4 Page 1 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 10 0 Figure 22. S&P 00 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 10 0 00 4 Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 00 4 30 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 30 4 S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 4 3 3 Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 S&P 00 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) / 4 Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) 4 3 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 3 Page 1 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
S&P 00/0/00 Blue Angels 00 300 3000 00 Figure 23. S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION S&P 00 /30/ S&P 00 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // x x x1 x 00 300 3000 00 00 x x 00 00 00 00 00 00 200 0 0 0 13 1 1 00 200 20 20 00 S&P 0 /30/ S&P 0 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // X X x1 x 20 20 00 00 x 00 x 00 00 00 00 300 0 0 0 13 1 1 300 1300 10 S&P 00 /30/ /30/ x x 1300 10 00 S&P 00 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // x1 x 00 00 x x 00 00 00 300 300 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 * Implied stock price index calculated using actual 2-week consensus expected forward earnings times hypothetical forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poors and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 0 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
0 Figure 24. S&P 00 Forward Revenues & Earnings 0 2 10 S&P 00 FORWARD EARNINGS & REVENUES PER SHARE (ratio scale) / 2 10 130 130 0 0 0 0 Forward Earnings* (.) Forward Revenues* Divided by (0.3) % Growth Rate** 1 3 1 3 01 03 0 0 0 13 1 21 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 4, then weekly. ** Compounded monthly to yield % annually. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS ANNUAL GROWTH FORECASTS* (based on analysts consensus estimates, percent, weekly) 0 (.) (.0) 13 (.1) (.0) (0.) 1 (1.) 1 (.2) (23.2) (.1) (.3) 13 1 1 0 - Latest data thru // 0 0 13 1 1 - Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.
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