Chart Collection for Morning Briefing October 25, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 5-972-763 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
325 3 275 Figure 1. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: -1 (ratio scale) 1/24 325 3 275 25 25 225 225 175 175 15 5 -day moving average 15 5 1 1 75 75 5-56.% (517) -.% (7) -19.4% (157) -9.% (2) -9.9% (6) -7.7% -5.% (62) (34) -5.% (19) 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19-7.4% (2) -.4%-13.3% (96) (1) -1.2% (13) Note: Corrections are declines of 1% or more, while minor ones are 5%-1% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s. 5 3 25 15 1 5-5 -1-15 - -25-3 -35-4 -45 Figure 2. S&P 5 INDEX (as a percent of -day moving average) % from -day moving average (-4.) 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 Source: Standard & Poor s. 1/24 3 25 15 1 5-5 -1-15 - -25-3 -35-4 -45 Page 3 / October 25, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
6 4 - -4-6 4 Figure 3. S&P 5 (price index as percentage of -dma) 1/24 % from -dma (-4.) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIALS 1/24 (-.3) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 4 - -4-6 4 1/24 1/24 - - -4-6 3 15 (-4.6) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 CONSUMER STAPLES (-3.9) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 MATERIALS -4-6 4 1/24 1/24 - -15-3 4 (3.5) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 ENERGY (-.2) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 REAL ESTATE -4-6 5 25-1/24 1/24-25 -4-6 6 4 - -4-6 - 3 (-9.2) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 FINANCIALS Includes Real Estate through September (-9.9) 1/24 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 HEALTH CARE (.6) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 COMMUNICATION SERVICES 1/24 (-4.2) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 UTILITIES -5-75 4 - -4 4 15 1/24 1/24-15 - -3 (.) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 (7.7) 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19-4 Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 4 / October 25, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
11 1 Figure 4. S&P 5 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE -DMA* 11 1 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 1/24 4 3 3 1-56.% (517) -.% (7) -19.4% (157) -9.% (2) -9.9% (6) -7.7% (62) -5.% (34) -5.% (19) 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19-6.9% (37) -.4%-11.6% (96) (11) -1.2% (13) 1 * Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 1-wma and 4-wma to approximate their 5-dma and -dma. Note: Corrections are declines of 1% or more, while minor ones are 5%-1% (all in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 1.7 1.6 Figure 5. S&P 5 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1/24 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1. 1..9.9..7 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 9 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s...7 Page 5 / October 25, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
15 Figure 6. S&P 5 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 15 1/1 19 13 1 13 1 1 11 Consensus Forecasts Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 11 1 1 9 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 9 * Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 175 Figure 7. S&P 5 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 1/1 175 15 Consensus Forecasts Annual Forward* 1 19 15 5 5 1 1 75 75 5 1 19 Frwd Oct 11 1.79 17.4 195.57 174.95 Oct 1 1.1 17.42 195.37 175.23 3 4 5 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 5 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 6 / October 25, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (daily) S&P 5 LargeCap (15.2) 1 1/24 1 1 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 1 S&P 4 MidCap (.4) 1 1/24 1 1 22 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 22 1 S&P 6 SmallCap (15.) 1 1/24 1 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 1 * Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 7 / October 25, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 Figure 9. US TREASURY 1-YEAR BOND YIELD (percent, monthly) 1 1 Yield (3.) 1 6 6 4 2 Sep 4 2 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 1 3 5 7 9 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Source: Haver Analytics. Figure 1. S&P 5 PROFIT MARGIN (percent, quarterly) Q2 1 1 6 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -6 - -1 - Operating (.3) Reported (1.2) 94 95 96 97 9 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 1 11 13 15 17 1 19 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation (revenues and reported EPS) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (operating EPS). -4-6 - -1 - Page / October 25, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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