Institute of Environmental Studies (IDEA) National University of Colombia Disaster Risk Management Task Force (DRM-TF) IRDR Center of Excellence in Understanding Risk & Safety ICoE:UR&S
GAR 2015 - WCDRR Why a Global Risk Assessment? Measure is essential to decide; what is not dimensioned cannot be administrated An operational picture of risk improves risk knowledge and provides an overall risk landscape Risk assessment is key to aware but also to concern decisionmakers of their responsibility Disaster risk is a contingent liability and therefore a sovereign risk for the society Risk reduction and prevention are duties for risk governance and for the nations accountability Track DRM progress overtime means considering the development transformation trade-offs
COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk Modelling Hazard Exposed Assets Vulnerability PDF Risk of loss Economic Losses Human Loss LOSS EXCEEDANCE CURVE PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS AVERAGE ANNUAL LOSS
Cyclonic / Seismic Hazard Set of stochastic scenarios Mutually exclusive Collectively exhaustive Admit probabilistic representation.ame FORMAT
Seismic Hazard Assessment Seismic Hazard Maps 0.2sec, 1,000 años
Cyclonic Wind Hazard Cyclonic Wind Hazard Maps TR=50 years
Global Exposure Database Definition and parameters Building classes according to WHE and WAPMERR Vulnerability functions for different quality structural design levels Vulnerability assignment to building classes in accordance with: Country development level City complexity level Regional hazard level Construction class
Global Exposure Database 5x5 km grids & 1x1 km in the coast
Vulnerability Vulnerability functions for earthquakes SEISMIC DESIGN LEVEL: M MDR (%) 100% 90% MDR - - - - Var. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 Spectral Acceleration, Sa (g)
Vulnerability Vulnerability functions for wind MDR (%) 100% 90% MDR - - - - Var. QUALITY LEVEL: M 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Wind Speed (kph)
Loss exceedance rate (#/year) Losses f f(x) 0 ( l Event i) f ( l Sa) f ( Sa Event i) dsa Vulnerability Hazard f(x) p P p P v p Events i 1 Pr ( l L Event i) F A ( Event i)
Risk Maps and Rankings Using AAL and PML results PHL AFG HND SLV JPN NIC GRC CHL UZB AZE GEO CRI GTM KGZ ECU PER COL TJK ARM BGR TUR PAK BGD ITA PAN ARE MEX IDN KAZ CYP VEN MLT ISL BOL LBN TUN ALB ISR SYR TKM Global level (National) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 AAL/GNE [ ] 24.6 21.3
Risk Indicators AAL/PC (EQ & W) by region Earthquake Cyclone Wind
Loss exceedance rate [1/year] Return period [years] Extensive and Intensive Risk Assessment Proposal of a Hybrid Loss Exceedance Curve 1,000 0.001 100 0.01 10 0.1 1 1 0.1 10 0.01 100 0.001 1,000 0.0001 10,000 0.00001 100,000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Economic loss [Million $USD] Analytical curve
Loss exceedance rate [1/year] Return period [years] Extensive and Intensive Risk Assessment Proposal of a Hybrid Loss Exceedance Curve 1,000 0.001 100 0.01 10 0.1 1 1 0.1 10 0.01 100 0.001 1,000 0.0001 10,000 0.00001 100,000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Economic loss [Million $USD] Historic curve Analytical curve
Loss exceedance rate [1/year] Return period [years] Extensive and Intensive Risk Assessment Proposal of a Hybrid Loss Exceedance Curve 1,000 0.001 100 0.01 10 0.1 1 1 0.1 10 0.01 100 0.001 1,000 0.0001 10,000 0.00001 100,000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Economic loss [Million $USD] Historic curve Analytical curve Hybrid curve
Loss exceedance (#/year) Return period (years) Loss Exceedance Curve Governments need to define a risk reduction/financing strategy 10 Retention (budget / contingent credit) Transfer Retention 0.1 Planning / Prevention / Mitigation 5 Regulation (Codes / Standards / Land use) (Residual Risk) 0.2 1 Warning / Emergency response 1 0.5 0.1 0.01 0.001 Layer 1 Layer 2 Layer 3 Layer 4 2 10 100 1000 50 100 500 1000 Loss ($ 000) 1 = High probability & low/moderate losses 2 = Medium probability & moderate/high losses 3 = Low probability & high losses 4 = Very low probability & very high losses
Regarding the GAR s GRM: A fully probabilistic earthquake risk assessment has been conducted at global level. Results are useful for comparisons and rankings among countries Risk had been estimated mainly based on historical records. The GAR s Global Risk Model takes into account events that have not yet occurred Countries must carry-out risk assessments with higher resolution at sub-national and local level when the required information is available From global to local: the same arithmetic can be used for any resolution level.
INDICATORS OF DISASTER RISK and RISK MANAGEMENT Program for the Americas IDB IDEA
SYSTEM OF NATIONAL INDICATORS ( IDB IDEA ) DDI LDI PVI RMI : DISASTER DEFICIT INDEX : LOCAL DISASTER INDEX : PREVALENT VULNERABILITY INDEX : RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX
RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX - RMI - RMI, 2008 COL BRB JAM NIC PAN MEX CRI PRY* CHL URY* GTM GUY* BHS* DOM HND* ARG BLZ ECU PER HTI* BOL SLV TTO 53 54 32 38 51 55 57 33 57 53 39 39 36 54 34 39 38 41 33 37 40 37 43 25 37 32 23 51 33 21 41 57 17 32 45 31 26 43 27 45 16 37 32 40 17 32 26 48 13 30 33 38 15 36 15 33 29 28 30 38 14 29 30 50 0 33 29 29 15 40 38 17 12 30 21 41 11 32 12 33 20 37 11 33 14 35 11 33 11 42 36 24 0 50 100 150 200 RI RR DM FP 22
National and Local Initiatives DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAM OF MANIZALES Risk knowledge and information systems (5 projects) Instrumentation, monitoring and early warning systems (6 projects) Using risk for planning and awarness (5 projects)
PARTNERS & SPONSORS International Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering Centro Internacional de Métodos Numéricos en Ingeniería