Global Economics & Markets Research Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Tuesday, 11 August 2015 FX Insights Chart Of The Day - USD/SGD: 1.3915 1.3900 target met, next major resistance at 1.3940 followed by 1.4000. In the Chart of the Day update last Tuesday (spot: 1.3780), we were anticipating a break of 1.3815 targeting a move to 1.3900. The target was met last Thursday with an exact high of 1.3900. After dipping to a low of 1.3795 earlier this morning, USD surged strongly after the much higher than expected CNY fixing by PBOC. While the outlook from here remains bullish, the current rally is approaching the next major resistance at 1.3935/40 (the year s high). A break above this level will not be surprising but the current rally appears to be over-extended and at this stage, we do not foresee a sustained break above the psychological level of 1.4000. On the downside, only a move back below the stop-loss at 1.3760 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 2 OVERVIEW Markets have begun the new week on a positive move, in most cases at least reversing the weakness seen on Friday. The rebound was most notable in the commodity space, with energy rallying across the complex and copper rising more than 2%. US Treasuries came under pressure, reversing the gains seen in the wake of the July employment report, alongside a surge in equities. China s mainland bourses had shrugged off the weekend s soft export and inflation reports with the CSI300 eventually closing up 4.5% on Monday. The rebound in commodities and Chinese equities helped lift bourses in Europe and the US. The USD initially fell on the back of Fischer and Lockhart s earlier comments. The Federal Reserve s Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer looked to temper growing speculation of a September rate hike suggesting, employment has been rising pretty fast relative to previous performance and yet inflation is very low. Fischer said he would like to see inflation return to levels that are more normal. He added the FOMC has more information to parse over the next five weeks before the September meeting. Fischer believes a rate hike in September will be, a game-day decision. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart offered a different view, saying he is very disposed to the possibility of a September liftoff. While he remains on track for September liftoff he added, waiting a meeting or two wouldn t be decisive for the economy. Lockhart echoed Fischer s concerns about inflation but was confident it would rise in coming months as the US economy picks up steam. But following the much higher USD/CNY fixing this morning which caught the market by surprise, the greenback has since rallied. Fed Funds Rate: 0.0-0.25% Last Change: -0.75% in Dec 08 Next FOMC Meeting: 17-Sep-15 U.S GDP QoQ: +0.6% in 1Q15 +2.3% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2nd estimate): 27-Aug-15 PCE Price Index YoY: +0.2% in May +0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Core PCE Price Index YoY: +1.2% in May +1.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Unemployment: +5.3% in Jun +5.3% in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Nonfarm payroll: +231k in Jun +215k in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Retail Sales: +1.0% in May -0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 13-Aug-15 exp: +0.5% Retail Sales ex autos: +0.8% in May -0.1% in Jun Jul Release: 13-Aug-15 exp: +0.4% Durable Goods: -2.1% in May +3.4% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Durable Goods ex autos: -0.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Housing Starts: +1069k in May +1174k in Jun Jul Release: 18-Aug-15 Case Shiller 20-City Index: +5.0% in Apr +4.9% in May Jun Release: 25-Aug-15 UoM Consumer Confidence: 96.1 in Jun 93.1 in Jul Aug Release: 14-Aug-15 exp: 93.8 UOB Fed Funds Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.50% end 4Q15: 0.75% end 1Q16: 1.00% end 2Q16: 1.25%
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 3 USD/SGD: 1.3915 In Singapore, 2Q15 GDP growth was revised slightly higher to 1.8% y/y from 1.7% in the advance estimates. On the s/adj annualized q/q basis, GDP fell 4.0% compared to -4.6% in the advance estimates. Stronger growth in the services sector at 3.4% y/y compared to 3.0% in the advance estimate offset weaker manufacturing and construction sectors in the quarter. The manufacturing sector contracted by a larger 4.9% y/y (advance estimate: -4.0%) while construction growth was trimmed to 2.5% y/y from 2.7% in the advance estimate. The MTI has narrowed its 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.0-2.5% from 2.0-4.0%. Separately, USD/SGD traded a range of 1.3804-1.3884 on Monday. Returning from the long weekend, the final 2Q15 GDP data this morning did not have much impact on the USD/SGD. SGD NEER was trading at 0.43% below the mid-point this morning with +/-1.0% from the mid-point implying USD/SGD in a range of 1.3620-1.3900 based on current FX levels. USD spiked higher from a low of 1.3795 earlier this morning after the stronger than expected CNY fixing by PBOC. While the up-move appears incomplete and is expected to extend higher, the rally is over-extended and any further USD strength is likely limited to 1.3960. Only a move back below 1.3850 would indicate that the immediate upside pressure has eased. Bullish: 1.3900 target met, next major resistance at 1.3940 followed by 1.4000. [See Chart of the Day on page 1] Singapore S$NEER Last Change: Reduced the slope of the policy band (Jan 2015) Next MAS Meeting: Oct 15 (date yet to be announced) GDP YoY: +2.8% in 1Q15 +1.7% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (final): 11-Aug-15 exp: +1.5%, act: 1.8% CPI YoY: -0.4% in May -0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 25-Aug-15 NODX: -0.3% in May +4.7% in Jun Jul Release: 17-Aug-15 Industrial Production: -1.7% in May -4.4% in Jun Jun Release: 26-Aug-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.36 end 4Q15: 1.38 end 1Q16: 1.40 end 2Q16: 1.39 UOB 3M SIBOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.05% end 4Q15: 1.15% end 1Q16: 1.22% end 2Q16: 1.27% UOB 3M SOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.15% end 4Q15: 1.25% end 1Q16: 1.30% end 2Q16: 1.35%
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 4 The sharp rise in EUR earlier this morning appears to be over-extended and further sustained up-move appears unlikely. However, barring a move back below 1.5230, EUR could move higher to test the major resistance at 1.5340/45 but a clear break above this level is not expected at this stage. The sharp rally this morning is extremely over-extended and any further up-move is likely limited to a test of 2.1750. At this stage, a sustained break above this level appears unlikely. On the downside, only a move back below 2.1600 would indicate that a short-term top is in place. EUR/SGD: 1.5300 GBP/SGD: 2.1680 AUD/SGD: 1.0230 Bullish: Target met; still bullish but 1.5345 may temporary cap near-term EUR strength. As highlighted several times in recent updates, we expected an eventual break above 1.5213/18 targeting a move to 1.5290. The target was exceeded earlier this morning and despite overbought conditions, there is no sign of a top just yet. That said, the current rally is quickly approaching the 1.5345 high seen in June and this level may temporary cap any further near-term EUR strength. Overall, as long as 1.5150 is not taken out, a break above 1.5345 would shift the focus to the February s high of 1.5540. Neutral: Expect consolidation at these higher levels for the next couple of weeks. The bullish phase in GBP that started in mid-july has ended with the break below 2.1400 last Thursday (low of 2.1380). Despite the subsequent sharp rally from the low, we believe GBP has lost most of its impetus. From here, we expect sideway trading for the next couple of weeks, likely between 2.1400 and 2.1800. Only a clear break above 2.1800 would suggest that the longer-term bullish trend has resumed. The outlook for this pair is mixed. Expect sideway trading for today, likely between 1.0200 and 1.0270. Bullish: Counter trend rally could extend higher to 1.0310. There is no change to our current bullish AUD view as presented in the Chart of the Day update last Wed. From here, as long as 1.0140 is not taken out, we continue to expect the current AUD strength to extend higher to 1.0310. JPY/SGD: 1.1175 Despite overbought conditions, the current JPY strength is expected to extend higher to 1.1230/40. Expect any pull-back to hold above 1.1130. Bullish: Clear break above 1.1150 suggests further JPY strength in coming weeks with a target of 1.1335. The clear break above 1.1150 this morning suggests that the recent neutral phase has ended. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a sustained up-move targeting a move to 1.1335 (strong intervening resistance at 1.1245/50). Stop-loss is at 1.1060 but 1.1100 is likely strong enough to hold any short-term pull-back.
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 5 USD/MYR: 3.9420 Despite some positive data releases for Malaysia s exports and industrial production, the MYR continues to weaken. Foreign reserves fell by US$8.8bn to US$96.7bn in July (vs. -US$0.9bn in June) reflecting central bank actions to smoothen the volatility. Based on the spike in risk reversal, market players are betting on a further run in the dollar against the ringgit. As such we think it is worthwhile for BNM to preserve its bullets at this juncture. Meanwhile, 1MDB said that they remain focused on rationalization plans despite recycled allegations. Affin Bank Bhd which is controlled by Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (LTAT) is paying MYR255m cash to buy a parcel of land in the TUn Razak Exchange (TRX). Bullish: Rally severely over-extended but confirmation of a short-term top is only upon a break below 3.9000. The current rally is severely over-extended and the risk for a short-term top is increasing. That said, confirmation of a peak is only upon a break below 3.9000. From here, the current rally could still extend higher but we have a modest target of 3.9600. Malaysia Overnight Policy Rate: 3.25% Last Change: +0.25% in Jul 2014 Next BNM Meeting: 03-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +5.7% in 4Q14 +5.6% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 13-Aug-15 exp: +4.5% CPI YoY: +2.1% in May +2.5% in Jun Jul Release: 19-Aug-15 Trade Balance: +5.5b in May +7.98b in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Export: -6.7% in May +5.0% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Import: -7.2% in May -1.5% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Industrial Production: +4.5% in May +4.3% in Jun Jul Release: 10-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 3.90 end 4Q15: 3.93 end 1Q16: 3.93 end 2Q16: 3.92 UOB Overnight Policy Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 3.25% end 4Q15: 3.25% end 1Q16: 3.25% end 2Q16: 3.25% USD/THB: 35.33 Whilst USD/THB ended up 0.13% at 35.18 on Monday, the THB is seen weakening against the USD today, along with the rest of the currencies. The week looks quiet for Thailand, with markets closed on Wednesday. Bullish: Still bullish but overbought conditions suggest limited upside potential. After trading sideways below the late July s high of 35.27, USD broke above this level early this morning. While further up-move is likely in the coming week, the still overbought conditions suggest limited upside potential. Barring a move below the stop-loss at 35.07, we expect the current up-move to extend higher to 35.40 followed by 35.45. Thailand 1-Day Repo Rate: 1.50% Last Change: -0.25% in Apr 2015 Next BOT Meeting: 16-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +2.3% in 4Q14 +3.0% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 18-Aug-15 CPI YoY: -1.07% in Jun -1.05% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 33.5 end 4Q15: 34.3 end 1Q16: 34.6 end 2Q16: 34.3 UOB Repo Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.5% end 4Q15: 1.5% end 1Q16: 1.75% end 2Q16: 2.0%
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 6 USD/CNH: 6.3180 In a surprise move this morning, the PBoC has cut the currency s reference rate by a record 1.9%, allowing depreciation to combat a slump in exports. he PBoC said that the move is effectively a one-off adjustment, and that the yuan effective FX rate is stronger than other currencies. The sharp spike higher is clearly over-extended and further sustained up-move appears unlikely. Expect USD to trade in a broad and choppy range of 6.2900 and 6.3300. Bullish: Still bullish but it is likely that we have seen a bulk of the up-move. We held a bullish USD view since late July and have repeatedly stressed that as long as the key support at 6.2120 is not taken out, the outlook for USD is viewed as bullish. That said, we clearly did not expect our 6.2480 target to be met in such a dramatic manner. From here, the rally could extend higher but it is likely that we have seen a bulk of the up-move. Overall, expect an increased in volatility and we suspect any further up-move is likely limited to 6.3500/6.3600. China Benchmark Deposit Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Benchmark Lending Rate: 4.85% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Reserve Requirement Ratio: 18.5% Last Change: -1.00% in Apr 2015 GDP YoY: +7.0% in 1Q15 +7.0% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 19-Oct-15 Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 in Jun 47.8 in Jul Aug Release: 24-Aug-15 NBS Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 in Jun 50.0 in Jul Jul Release: 01-Sep-15 PPI YoY: -4.8% in Jun -5.4% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.4% in Jun +1.6% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 Trade Balance: +46.54 in Jun +43.0b in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Export: +2.8% in Jun -8.3% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Import: -6.1% in Jun --8.1% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 UOB FX (USD/CNY) Forecast: end 3Q15: 6.23 end 4Q15: 6.20 end 1Q16: 6.19 end 2Q16: 6.17 UOB Benchmark Lending Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 4.60% end 4Q15: 4.60% end 1Q16: 4.60% end 2Q16: 4.60%
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 7 EUR/USD: 1.0985 Focus has swiveled back to Greece. According to reports, a preliminary agreement for the EUR86bn Greek rescue package may be reached as soon as Tuesday. This could be followed by the Greek parliament passing some remaining required measures during the week, the Eurogroup of finance ministers approving it on Friday, and national parliaments giving their final assent next week. That would allow the release of the first disbursement to Athens in time for it to redeem its EUR3.2bn of bonds held by the ECB on the 20th, without having to resort to another temporary bridge loan. In the meantime, we expect EUR/USD to trade sideways close to current levels around the 1.10-handle. The Eurozone economic docket is limited on Tuesday, with only the German ZEW economic sentiment survey due. The sharp pull-back from the high of 1.1038/43 yesterday suggests that a short-term top is in place. From here, allow for a rebound to 1.1010 but 1.1050 is expected to cap for a deeper pull-back to 1.0940. Neutral: Despite improving momentum, only a break above 1.1050 would indicate the start of a sustained EUR upmove. Despite improving upward momentum, we are not convinced that the current EUR strength is the start of a sustained mid-term up-move. Only a clear break above 1.1050 would indicate a move towards 1.1130 and beyond has started. Otherwise, expect further broad sideway trading between 1.0850 and 1.1150 (for another week or so). Eurozone Refinancing Rate: 0.05% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Next ECB Meeting: 03-Sep-15 Deposit Rate: -0.2% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Lending Rate: 0.3% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 GDP QoQ: +0.3% in 4Q14 +0.4% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 14-Aug-15 exp: +0.4% CPI YoY: +0.2% in Jun +0.2% in Jul Aug Release: 31-Aug-15 Unemployment: 11.1% in Jun 11.1% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.09 end 4Q15: 1.10 end 1Q16: 1.12 end 2Q16: 1.12 UOB Refinancing Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.05% end 4Q15: 0.05% end 1Q16: 0.05% end 2Q16: 0.05% GBP/USD: 1.5570 Whilst GBP rallied to above the 1.5600-level on Monday, the pair has since eased off, now seen around the 1.5570 region. With no UK data of note until Wednesday, we think that the GBP is likely to be sidelined, moving in tandem to broad dollar moves. Last Thursday, the BoE MPC turned out to be slightly less hawkish than expected. The vote count for a rate hike at the August meeting was 1-8 instead of 2-7. Although the MPC has already come clean to say that no rate hike is likely this year, focus is likely to remain on the BoE s pursuit in the monetary tightening prospect race. The sharp pull-back from the 1.5605/10 high seen yesterday suggests that a short-term top is in place. Barring a move back above 1.5610, the current pull-back could extend lower to 1.5530. Bank Rate: 0.50% U.K Last Change: -0.50% in Mar 2009 Next BOE Meeting: 10-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q15 +0.7% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd estimate): 28-Aug-15 CPI YoY: +0.1% in May 0.0% in Jun Jul Release: 18-Aug-15 Unemployment: 5.5% in Apr 5.6% in May Jun Release: 12-Aug-15 exp: 5.6% Services PMI: 58.5 in Jun 57.4 in Jul Aug Release: 03-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.60 end 4Q15: 1.62 end 1Q16: 1.64 end 2Q16: 1.67 UOB Bank Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.5% end 4Q15: 0.5% end 1Q16: 0.5% end 2Q16: 0.75% Neutral: Current whippy trading sideway trade could last for another week. While GBP broke below the major 1.5500 support late last week, the subsequent strong rebound from the low suggests that this pair is still caught in a broad sideway range. The current whippy trading could last for another week. Strong support is at 1.5430 and resistance is at 1.5690.
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 8 AUD/USD: 0.7340 The brief surge in Australian business confidence in June was more than eroded in July, suggesting that businesses investment and hiring intentions will remain weak for the timebeing. The NAB business confidence index plunged to 4 in July from a downward revised 8 a month earlier, whilst the NAB business conditions index fell to 6 from a revised 10. This, alongside China s decision to cut the yuan reference rate by the most on record this morning, has seen the AUD/USD pair tumbling to the 0.7340-levels. While further downside is not ruled out, the current AUD Neutral: Still believe the current corrective rebound weakness is clearly oversold and a break below the could higher extend to 0.7490. major support at 0.7260 is not expected from here. That Despite the sharp drop from the high of 0.7440 earlier said, only a break back above 0.7380 would indicate that today, we still view that the current corrective rebound the immediate downward pressure has eased. stands a chance to extend higher to 0.7490. Only a clear break below 0.7260 will indicate the start of a move which could potentially take out the year s low at 0.7230/35. Australia Cash Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in May 2015 Next RBA Meeting: 01-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 4Q14 +0.9% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 03-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.3% in 1Q15 +1.5% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release: 28-Oct-15 Unemployment: 6.0% in Jun 6.3% in Jul Jul Release: 11-Sep-15 Trade Balance: -2750m in May -2933m in Jun Jul Release: 03-Sep-15 Capex: -2.2% 4Q14-4.4% 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 27-Aug-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.75 end 4Q15: 0.74 end 1Q16: 0.74 end 2Q16: 0.73 UOB Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.00% end 4Q15: 2.00% end 1Q16: 2.00% end 2Q16: 2.00% NZD/USD: 0.6570 Last sighted around the 0.6565 levels, NZD has reversed early gains. Lows of 0.6553 were seen earlier on broad USD strength. Earlier this morning, July retail spending indicators were due in New Zealand total card spending came in at 1.1% m/m, 0.4% y/y, from previous readings of 0.6% q/q, 0.5% y/y. While the sharp drop from the high of 0.6633 early this morning appears incomplete, any further weakness is likely limited to 0.6520 and a break below last week s low near 0.6490 is not expected. Neutral: Only a break out of the expected 0.6490/0.6650 sideway range would indicate the start of a directional move. There is no change to current neutral view and only a break out of the expected 0.6490/0.6650 sideway range would indicate the start of a directional mid-term move. New Zealand Official Cash Rate: 3.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jul 2015 Next RBNZ Meeting: 10-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.8% in 4Q14 +0.2% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 17-Sep-15 CPI QoQ: -0.3% in 1Q15 +0.4% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 23-Oct-15 Unemployment: 5.8% in 1Q15 5.9% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 04-Nov-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.66 end 4Q15: 0.64 end 1Q16: 0.63 end 2Q16: 0.62 UOB Official Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.75% end 4Q15: 2.50% end 1Q16: 2.50% end 2Q16: 2.50%
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 9 USD/JPY: 124.75 The broad dollar strength has seen the USD/JPY recovered, seeing a high of 124.89 earlier this morning. As expected, the BoJ meeting last Friday was a non-event. BoJ governor did highlight though that he would add to current stimulus measures should falling oil prices stem domestic inflationary pressures. 24-hour view The outlook for this pair is mixed, expect sideway trading likely between 124.40 and 125.00. 1-3 weeks view Bullish: Break above 125.00 could lead to acceleration higher towards the 125.85 high seen in June. While USD is still struggling to break clearly above 125.00, only a move back below 124.00 would indicate that our bullish view is wrong. Otherwise, a clear break above 125.00 could lead to acceleration higher to 125.85. Japan Overnight Call Rate: 0.0-0.1% Last Change: -0.20% in Dec 2008 Next BOJ Meeting: 15-Sep-15 GDP QoQ Annualized: +1.1% in 4Q14 +3.9% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 17-Aug-15 exp: -1.9% CPI Core YoY: +0.1% in May +0.1% in Jun Jun Release: 29-Aug-15 Industrial Production MoM: -2.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 29-Aug-15 Household Spending: +4.8% in May -2.0% in Jun Jul Release: 29-Aug-15 UOB FX forecast: end 3Q15: 126 end 4Q15: 127 end 1Q16: 129 end 2Q16: 130 UOB Overnight Call Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.0-0.1% end 4Q15: 0.0-0.1% end 1Q16: 0.0-0.1% end 2Q16: 0.0-0.1% Last updated: 19 Jun 15 FX Outlook 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Interest Rates 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 EUR/USD 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.12 EU 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% GBP/USD 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.67 UK 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.75% AUD/USD 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 AU 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% USD/JPY 126 127 129 130 JP 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% USD/SGD 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.39 US 0.5% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% USD/MYR 3.90 3.93 3.93 3.90 MY 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% USD/THB 33.5 34.3 34.6 34.3 TH 1.50% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% USD/CNY 6.23 6.20 6.19 6.17 CN 4.60% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% USD/IDR 13500 13600 13700 13500 ID 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% USD/PHP 43.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 PH 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% USD/INR 64.8 66.0 65.0 64.0 IN 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% USD/TWD 31.4 31.8 32.0 31.7 TW 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% USD/HKD 7.75 7.75 7.80 7.80 HK 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% USD/KRW 1130 1140 1150 1130 KR 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% 4.85%
Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Page 10 06-Aug-15 FX Pairs Spot Outlook USD/SGD 1.3915 Bullish Summary of Views Since Rate 04 Aug 15 1.3780 Target Trailing-stop Support Resistance 1.4000 1.3900 1.3760 1.3695 S1: 1.3850 S2: 1.3760 R1: 1.3940 R2: 1.4000 EUR/SGD 1.5300 Bullish 24 Jul 15 1.5035 1.5345 1.5290 1.5150 1.4960 S1: 1.5230 S2: 1.5150 R1: 1.5345 R2: 1.5540 GBP/SGD 2.1680 Neutral 10 Aug 15 2.1440 - - S1: 2.1500 S2: 2.1400 R1: 2.1730 R2: 2.1800 AUD/SGD 1.0230 Bullish 05 Aug 15 1.0190 1.0310 1.0140 1.0075 S1: 1.0140 S2: 1.0140 R1: 1.0270 R2: 1.0310 JPY/SGD 1.1175 Bullish 11 Aug 15 1.1175 1.1335 1.1060 S1: 1.1100 S2: 1.1060 R1: 1.1250 R2: 1.1335 USD/MYR 3.9420 Bullish 06 Jul 15 3.8040 3.8800 3.8800 3.9100 3.8300 S1: 3.9150 S2: 3.9000 R1: 3.9500 R2: 3.9600 USD/THB 35.33 Bullish 24 Jun 15 33.79 35.40 35.30 35.07 34.90 S1: 35.20 S2: 35.07 R1: 35.40 R2: 35.45 USD/CNH 6.3180 Bullish 27 Jul 15 6.2135 6.3600 6.2480 6.2400 6.2120 S1: 6.2700 S2: 6.2400 R1: 6.3500 R2: 6.3600 EUR/USD 1.0985 Neutral 31 Jul 15 1.1035 - - S1: 1.0920 S2: 1.0850 R1: 1.1050 R2: 1.1130 GBP/USD 1.5570 Neutral 13 Jul 15 1.5500 - - S1: 1.5500 S2: 1.5430 R1: 1.5650 R2: 1.5690 AUD/USD 0.7340 Neutral 05 Aug 15 0.7380 - - S1: 0.7320 S2: 0.7260 R1: 0.7440 R2: 0.7490 NZD/USD 0.6570 Neutral 22 Jul 15 0.6625 - - S1: 0.6520 S2: 0.6490 R1: 0.6650 R2: 0.6700 USD/JPY 124.70 Bullish 06 Aug 15 124.75 125.85 124.00 S1: 124.40 S2: 124.00 R1: 125.00 R2: 125.85 * Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price 1-period ago. ** Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price on 31-Dec-14. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that the reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be reproduced or otherwise.