World Meteorological Organization Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
Extreme Temp. 4% Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Drought 5% Epidemic, insects 13% Flood 33% Extreme Temp. 5% Flood 10% Windstorm 15% Earthquake 16% Tsunami 0,4% Volcano 1,6% Earthquake 8% Windstorm 27% Slides 5% Wild Fires 3% Drought 30% Tsunami 12% Epidemic, insects 10% Volcano 1% Number of events Earthquake 22% Drought 5% Tsunami 1% Loss of life Windstorm 43% Flood 25% Extreme Temp. 2% Economic losses Wild Fires 2% 90% of events, 70% of casualties and 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards. Source: EM- DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
90% of Disasters are Hydro-Meteorological (Number of Events, 1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
Conclusions from 4 th IPCC Assessment Report WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Phenomenon Likelihood Major projected impacts Increased frequency of heat waves Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events Area affected by drought increases Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Increased incidence of extreme high sea level Very likely Very likely Likely Likely Likely Increased risk of heat-related mortality Increased loss of life and property due to flooding, and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases Increased risk of food and water shortage Increased risk of deaths, injuries, water- and food-borne diseases; Disruption by flood and high winds; Potential for population migrations, loss of property Increased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning in floods; Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure
Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Energy Water Resource Management Strong Wind Transport Food security Intensity Coastal Marine Hazards Health Industry Tropical Cyclones Urban areas Hazards intensity and frequency are increasing Heavy rainfall / Flood Exposure is increasing! Heatwaves Frequency Need for disaster risk management
Leveraging WMO Networks to improve DRR at national level
Research Side: 20 years of international coordination of scientific research and assessment World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Northern Atlantic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation IPCC Assessments UNFCCC negotiations
Global Coordination of National Observing Networks & Global Telecommunication System Coordinated Satellite Activities Global Observing System Global Data Processing and Forecasting Global Telecommunication System Global Data Exchange: WMO Resolutions 40 and 25
Communication and Dissemination National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Media General public Government and civil defence authorities Private sector
Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: An example of inter-agency collaboration http://www.unisdr.org/eng/about_isdr/isdr-publications/07-hyogoframework-for-action-english/hyogo-framework-for-action-english.pdf
Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure) CAT insurance CAT bonds Alternative Risk Transfer mechanisms Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training
DRR Strategic Foundation Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2011 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with regional associations, technical commissions, programmes and partner agencies DRR Strategic Goals in Disaster Risk Reduction
DRR Strategic Goals - Key Words 1. Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment 2. Strengthening and sustainability of multi-hazard early warning systems 3. Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements 4. Strengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships with disaster risk reduction organizations 5. Public outreach campaigns Implemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners resources/expertise.
Analysis of NMHSs Capacities and Gaps 139 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services participated: 1. Assessment of role of NMHSs as reflected in planning, legislation and national DRR coordination mechanisms; 2. Assessment of NMHS' capacities in observing, data management, forecasting and warning services; 3. Capacities to deliver products and services and warnings; 4. Assessment of NMHSs cooperation and coordination with other agencies and ministries.
Countries Participating in the Country-Level DRR Survey 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 24/52 54 % 14/19 74 % 140 out of 188 Members responded Analysis available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natregcap_en.html
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure) CAT insurance CAT bonds Alternative Risk Transfer mechanisms Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling. Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies Forward looking hazard trend analysis Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts Probabilitic climate models
Initiatives underway for standardization of hazard information for Floods, Droughts, Meteorological Hazards 1. Hazard data and metadata 2. Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies FLOOD 3. Capacity development and training 4. Demonstration projects in selected countries
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure) CAT insurance CAT bonds Alternative Risk Transfer mechanisms Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological 345 160 495 Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up 150 100 50 4 11 14 24 47 88 103 0 56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade Millions of casualties per decade Geological While casualties related to hydrometeorological disasters are decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2.66 1.73 0.65 0.39 0.17 0.05 Hydrometeorological 0.67 0.22 0.25 0.22 56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade
In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management Communities at risk NATIONAL SERVICES hazard warning National to local governments post-disaster response Meteorological Hydrological hazard warning Geological Marine Health (etc.)
2 What is an Effective EWS? COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES 5 feedback 3 warnings 1 National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms warnings 3 5 preventive actions feedback 4 Community Preparedness Meteorological Hydrological 3 warnings Geological 5 feedback Marine Health (etc.)
Criteria for Good Practices in EWS (outcome of the Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems, WMO-UNDP-WB-OCHA-UNESCO-ISDR, Geneva, May 2006) Political commitment, DRR plans, legislation, roles and responsibilities (national to local) Overall Coordination and operational working mechanisms among agencies Capacity for delivery of best available information to address government demand in support of decision-making Authoritative, understandable warnings Combine hazard, risk and response information Dissemination Mechanisms Match resources and culture Sustainability, interoperability, reliability Integration of warning information in emergency preparedness and response actions Community-based emergency preparedness and training programmes Feedback mechanisms to improve the system
National Example: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh
To Assist Members in Development of Early Warning Systems, WMO is: 1) Documenting good practices - governance, organizational coordination and operational processes in good practices (2008); 2) Initiating National Demonstration projects: strengthening operational capacities and coordination 3) Facilitating sharing of experiences Publications, manuals, study tours, training workshops, symposia
Comprehensive EWS Pilot Projects with Multi-Hazard Approach (since 2006) South-Eastern Europe, East Asia Caucasus South Asia Central America China (Shanghai) South-Eastern Africa South-Eastern Asia
Examples of Initiatives Involving WMO together with other international Agencies in support of National EWS Severe Weather Forecasting Systems Marine related hazards (storm surge and tropical cyclone) Sand and dust storm warning system Drought monitoring and warning systems (UNCCD) Flash Flood Guidance Systems with Global Coverage (with HRC and NOAA) Global Wild Land and Forest Fire Warning Programme (with GFMC) Regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems (with UNESCO-IOC) Health Epidemics warning systems (with WHO) Locust Swarms warning Systems (with FAO) Linking these technical capacities to operational early warning systems
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure) CAT insurance CAT bonds Alternative Risk Transfer mechanisms Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Availability and accessibility of historical and realtime data Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement Forecasts for management of risk portfolio Technical support and service delivery
First Step: Expert Meeting on Role of National Met Services to support Financial Risk Transfer Markets Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters Participants: World Bank, World Food Programme, Weather Risk Management Association, 8 largest Reinsurers 13 National Meteorological Services Reps. from climate research community Outcomes: Raised Awareness within WMO and its network Discussed role of NMHS in supporting Financial risk transfer markets Discussed needs, challenges and opportunities Discussed requirements of these markets Role of World Bank, WFP and bi-lateral donors (role of WMO?) All documents and final report available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/catinsurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets European Agricultural Risk Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts Wind Power Risk Contracts Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Risk Management Markets (ART) CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew UK Flood CAT Bond Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project & Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility Indian Agricultural Risk Heating Degree Day Contracts Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia Malawi Drought Risk Management Pacific Risk Insurance Facility
What is Next? 1. Raise awareness on the emergence, needs and opportunities Joint publication Managing Weather and Climate Risks Through Financial Risk Transfer Markets (for Release in 2008-2009) (Springer Verlag) 2. Develop a joint work plan with World Bank, WFP and WRMA, and present to WMO governing bodies for endorsement (2008-2009) National Capacity development projects Modernization of observing networks, Data Rescue Programmes, Data management and archiving systems, technical tools and methodologies 3. Work with partners on development of country-specific cases Facilitation of National Met Services participation and technical advice 4. Guidelines and standards for observing networks, hazard data products, quality assurance and service delivery models 5. Motivating coordinated climate research Patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations)
WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Management Capacities Provision of hazard information data, forecast and mapping to support: Risk assessment Sectoral Planning (infrastructure, food security) Financial risk transfer markets Capacity development in multi-hazard early warning systems Operational cooperation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and National Disaster Management Organizations Providing expertise in assessments and capacity development projects and implementation planning Coordinated projects among partners to assist countries in a more comprehensive manner
WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Management Capacities At the international level, WMO is Partner of World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, WHO, FAO, OCHA, UNOSAT, and Member of GFDRR, ISDR System Management Oversight Board. WMO and NMHSs assume a lead role in implementation of Hyogo Framework for Action, particularly related to the second Priority for Action, Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. At regional and national levels, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Specialised Centres are critical partners for disaster risk reduction
Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters
Example of Good Practice: France Vigilance System Hazards + NEW: Flood warning map Strong wind Strong rainfall Thunderstorm Snow/Ice Avalanches Heat waves Level of warning Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Warnings activate cascades of preparedness and response plans, actions and responsibilities Legislation Planning Authoritative Warnings Organizational linkages Training and feedback national to local authorities
Example of Good Practice: Shanghai City: Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme Governance : (mega) city-level. Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.
Cuba: Cyclone Early Warning Small country, 99% access to media (radio & TV), coordinated top-down warning and response mechanisms ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELS DIFUSSION OF WARNINGS RESPONSE ACTIONS GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE, RESIDENTS TV RADIO PHONE - FAX Warning INTERNET
Provision of Specialised Forecast Products for Pre and Post-Disaster Operations Example: WMO/UNOSAT partnership