Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators March 2016 Lutgert College Of Business 10501 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 Phone 239-590-7090 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri
Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 4 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 4 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Tourist Tax Revenues... 6 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 6 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA... 7 Single-Family Building Permits... 7 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County... 8 Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County... 8 Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County... 9 Taxable Sales... 9 Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region... 10 Chart 10: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties... 10 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties... 11 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment... 11 Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment... 12 Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment... 12 Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment... 13 Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment... 13 Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment... 14 Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices... 14 Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County... 15 Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County... 15 Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County... 16 Consumer Sentiment Index... 16 Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index... 16 Consumer Price Index... 17 Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change... 17 Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change... 19 Appendix: Trends in Regional Population, U.S. GDP, and U.S. Unemployment... 19 Chart A1: Coastal Counties Population 1990 to 2040... 20 Chart A2: Inland Counties Population 1990 to 2040... 20 Chart A3: Historic and Projected GDP 2007 to Long Run... 21 Chart A4: Historic and Projected Unemployment 2007 to Long Run... 22 2
Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7090 Email: cwestley@fgcu.edu Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7315 Email: sscheff@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7489 Email: jbreitba@fgcu.edu Copyright 2016 FGCU - All rights reserved. Introduction: Regional and National Background Southwest Florida s economy continued to exhibit strong growth associated with seasonal trends. These included a 7-percent increase in seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales in December 2015 over December 2014, and a 9-percent increase in passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports in January 2016 over January 2015. The coastal counties saw a 6-percent increase in seasonally-adjusted Tourist Tax revenues during the same period. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey reported national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 242,000 in February 2016, a 40-percent increase from the previous month but an 8.6-percent decrease from February 2015. The national and state unemployment rates for February both registered at 4.9 percent. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the five-county region fell to 4.8 percent in February 2016, well below the 5.6 percent reported February 2015. Employment in the region increased by 10,484 since January 2015, while the number of unemployed has dropped by 4,443. Existing single family home sales by a Realtor decreased by 13 percent in the coastal counties from February 2015 to February 2016, although there were substantial increases in median prices. The Florida and U.S. consumer sentiment indices also dipped in February 2016 from both the prior month as well as from February 2015. In March, the U.S. Census Bureau released its 2015 population estimates for counties and metropolitan areas. The Villages in Central Florida ranked first in percentage change increase in population from 2014 to 2015. Cape Coral-Fort Myers ranked third with a 3.3 percent increase, and Punta Gorda ranked 9th with a 2.8 percent increase. In terms of large metro areas, Cape Coral-Fort Myers ranked first in the country, followed By Austin, Texas (ranked 2nd, 3.0 percent), Northport-Sarasota-Bradenton (ranked 3rd, 2.7 percent), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (ranked 4th, 2.6 percent), and Lakeland-Winter Haven (ranked 9th, 2.3 percent). The RERI s staff extends its sincere thanks and appreciation to the dedicated individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include the FGCU student workers affiliated with the RERI, the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Charlotte, Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the Realtors of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 3
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Total passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports rose in January 2016 by more than 87,000 to 1,102,766, up 9 percent from January 2015. This increase is broken down by airport on Charts 1-3, with Southwest Florida International Airport reporting passenger activity of 918,929, or an increase of 7 percent; Sarasota-Bradenton reporting a passenger count of 107,299, or a 5-percent increase; and Punta Gorda reporting passenger activity of 76,538, or a 30-percent increase. 1,200 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity 1,100 1,000 900 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 700 600 500 400 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 4
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 175 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity 150 125 2013 2014 2015 2016 100 75 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 100 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity 90 80 70 60 2015 50 40 2014 30 20 10 0 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5
Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4 and 5, and are based on month of occupancy. The three coastal counties of Collier, Lee, and Charlotte continue to show gains over the prior year, growing 6 percent in total from January 2015 to January 2016. Broken down by county, Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues amounted to $2,029,769, or a 6 percent increase; Lee County s seasonally-adjusted revenues increased to $3,962,027, or a 4-percent increase; and Charlotte County s seasonally-adjusted revenues jumped to $363,895, an increase of 20 percent over January 2015. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties 14.0 12.0 Tourist Tax Revenue 2011 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 6
Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue - $ Millions Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA 4.0 County Tourist Tax Revenue - 2011 to present 3.5 3.0 2.5 Lee 2.0 1.5 Collier 1.0 0.5 Charlotte 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Single-Family Building Permits Southwest Florida long-term trends continue to be mostly positive. Single-family building permits issued by Lee County in February equaled 247, a decrease of 25 (9 percent) from February 2015, as shown in Chart 6. Collier County s total for February 2016 rose to 236, as shown in Chart 7; this was an increase of 31 permits from February 2015, and eight more than were recorded in January 2016. Charlotte County issued 80 building permits in February 2016, 20 more than February 2015 and one more than January 2016, as depicted in Chart 8. Hendry County has issued 10 permits in the first two months of 2016 compared to three in the same period last year. 7
2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Permits Issued 2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Permits Issued 1200 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1000 Permits Linear Trend 800 600 400 200 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County 350 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 300 250 200 150 100 50 Permits Linear Trend 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 8
2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Permits Issued Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 250 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 200 150 100 Permits Linear Trend 50 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchants collections. As a result, this data is reported for the month prior to the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Chart 9 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. The five Southwest Florida counties reported total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales of $2.1 billion in December 2015, an increase of 7 percent (or $136.5 million) over December 2014. Charts 10 and 11 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales increased from $1.059 billion in December 2014 to $1.138 billion in December 2015, a 7-percent increase. Collier County s taxable sales rose from $675.1 million to $714.7 million, up 6 percent over the same month last year. Charlotte County s taxable sales grew by 7 percent, from $199.5 million in December 2014 to $214.4 million in December 2015. Hendry County s taxable sales were up 10 percent from $26.8 million in December 2014 to $29.4 million in December 2015. Taxable sales in Glades County rose by 15 percent, increasing from $3.3 million in December 2014 to $3.8 million in December 2015. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. 9
Monthly Taxabkle Sales - $ Millions Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Billons Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region 3.0 Taxable Sales 2011 to Present - 5 County Region 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 10: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties 1,200 Coastal County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present 1,000 800 Lee 600 Collier 400 200 Charlotte All Data Seasonally Adjusted 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 10
Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Millions Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties 35 Inland County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present 30 Hendry 25 20 15 All Data Seasonally Adjusted 10 5 Glades 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 12-16 show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 2005 to February 2016, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for our five-county region was 4.8 percent in February 2016, down from 5.1 percent in January 2016 and 0.8 points below the 5.6 percent figure of February 2015. This is a result of an increase of 10,484 in employment since February 2015, while the number of unemployed dropped by 4,443. Lee County s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate amounted to 4.5 percent in February 2016, down from 5.3 percent in February 2015, and 0.2 points lower than January 2016, as shown in Chart 12. Collier County s unemployment rate dipped to 4.8 percent in February 2016, down from 5.5 percent in February 2015, and 0.3 points below the prior month, as shown in Chart 13. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Charlotte County was 5.4 percent in February 2016, down from 5.5 percent in January 2016 and from 6.2 percent in February 2015, as shown in Chart 14. Hendry County s February 2016 unemployment rate was 9.3 percent, down from 10.0 percent in January 2016, and from 10.7 percent in February 2015, as shown in Chart 15. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County declined to 6.1 percent in February 2016, compared to 7.1 percent in February 2015 and 6.5 percent in January 2016, as shown in Chart 16. 11
Florida s unemployment rate declined to 4.9 percent in February 2016, marking its lowest level in eight years. The national unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in both January and February 2016, down from 5.5 percent in February 2015. Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 12
Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 13
Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are shown in Charts 17-19. The line represents median prices plotted against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. 1,407 single-family homes were sold in the three coastal counties in February 2016, down 13 percent from February 2015 but 4 percent higher than January 2016. Median prices were substantially higher than a year ago (up 12 percent in Lee, 15 percent in Collier, and 19 percent in Charlotte County). Lee County had sales of 825 units in February 2016, a decrease of 13 percent from February 2015. Collier County single-family home sales declined to 261 units in February 2016 from 330 units in February 2015, down 21 percent. Charlotte County reported 321 single-family homes sold in February 2016, down 7 percent from February 2015. 14
Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 1600 $250 1400 1200 $200 1000 800 600 $150 $100 400 200 0 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $50 $0 Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 600 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales* by Realtors $450 500 400 $400 $350 $300 300 200 $250 $200 $150 100 0 Collier Homes Sold Collier Median Sale Price $100 $50 $0 * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com 15
Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 20 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. Although the linear trends are still positive, both indices have dropped below their prior year levels. The national ICS dipped from 92 in January 2016 to 91.7 in February 2016, down 3.7 points from February 2015. Chief Economist, Richard Curtin in the February 26, 2016 Survey of Consumers noted that The Fed seeks a helping hand to lower real interest rates from an old foe: inflationary psychology. Higher inflation expectations can accelerate perceived declines in real interest rates and stimulate spending. The risk associated with this strategy is the Fed s ability to fine-tune the resulting inflationary psychology, limiting expectations to their 2% target. The more likely result is that consumers will reduce rather than increase spending due to lower inflation-adjusted incomes. This reaction is hardly new to consumers, as the erosion of incomes due to price increases had repeatedly ended spending booms during the inflationary era of the 1970's. The February 2016 Florida Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 0.9 points from January 2016 and 2.2 points from February 2015 to 91.5. As noted in the February 26 edition of the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index: Despite recent good news in the national economy, Floridians expectations about personal finances in the coming year were pessimistic, especially among women and people 60 and older, according to the latest University of Florida consumer survey. 16
Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index 100 Florida and US Consumer Sentiment Indices Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 FL CSI FL CSI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 50 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index Chart 21 shows year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through February 2016. The data indicate that consumer price inflation continues at a moderate level, albeit somewhat higher than one year ago. The February 2016 National CPI was 1.0 percent above the February 2015 figure, while the U.S. Southern Region CPI increased only 0.7 percent over that same 12-month period. Consumer price inflation was higher in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area, as that index increased by 1.6 percent between February 2015 and February 2016. 17
Change From Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Consumer Price Index - Percentage Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisics Chart 22 shows the components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending February 2016. The largest increases since February 2015 were in medical care (4.7 percent) and housing (3.1 percent). Lower gasoline prices contributed to a 2.5 percent decrease in the transportation segment, while the apparel segment declined by 4.9 percent. 18
Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending February 2016 Medical care Housing Food and beverages Education and communication Other goods and services * Recreation Transportation Apparel * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 Month Percentage Change Appendix: Trends in Regional Population, U.S. GDP, and U.S. Unemployment The data presented in this appendix are not released on a monthly basis. The first two charts, Charts A1 and A2, show historic population growth through 2014, as well as projections updated annually by the state of Florida s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, working in conjunction with the University of Florida s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The second two charts, Charts A3 and A4, show historic measures of U.S. GDP growth rates and unemployment as well as projections by the Federal Reserve s Federal Open Market Committee. Regional Population From 1990 to 2014, regional population growth averaged 2.7 percent per year. The compound average annual rate of growth for 1990 to 2014 was 2.8 percent in Lee County, 3.4 percent in Collier County, 1.7 percent in Charlotte County, 2.2 percent in Glades County, and 1.6 percent in Hendry County. The righthand sections of Charts A1 and A2 show projected population increases from 2015 to 2040. These projected rates of increase are lower than the historic growth rates of 1990 to 2014. The regional projected population growth averages 1.6 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 51 percent for the five-county region from 2014 to 2040, bringing the total to 1,814,478. This represents nearly 609,000 additional residents. Lee County s population is projected to grow an average of 1.9 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at 0.7 percent per year. Hendry County s population is projected to grow at an average of 0.2 percent per year and Glades County at 0.7 percent per year. 19
Population - Thousands Population - Thousands 1200 Chart A1: Coastal Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 Historic and Projected Population Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties 1000 800 600 Lee Historic 2014 653 Projected 2040 1,074 2040 487 400 1990 335 Collier 2014 337 200 1990 152 2040 198 1990 2014 Charlotte 111 164 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research. 45 Chart A2: Inland Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 Historic and Projected Population Glades and Hendry Counties 40 Hendry 35 30 2014 37.9 2040 40.3 25 20 15 10 1990 25.8 1990 7.6 Historic 2014 12.9 Projected 2040 15.5 5 Glades 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research. 20
National GDP and Unemployment Charts A3 and A4 depict both historical trends and the Federal Open Market Committee s projections for national Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) and Unemployment. The FOMC s projections are released quarterly and reflect the assessments of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and of Federal Reserve District Bank presidents, with the most recent figures shown in the following charts. The dotted lines depict the highest and lowest projections or the range of all projections while the darker blue area within the dotted lines depict the central tendency forecast within those projections. Compared to the December forecast, the March forecast indicates slight decreases in projections for GDP growth for the remainder of 2016. While the range is fairly constant, the central tendency forecast decreases after 2017. None of the projections achieve the 3 percent GDP measure that economists generally associate with an economy operating with a full employment of resources. Chart A3 shows the recovery in GDP growth following the most recent recession, and current projections close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). For 2016, the overall projected range is 1.9 to 2.5 percent with a central tendency range of 2.1 to 2.3 percent. For 2017, the overall projected range is 1.7 to 2.3 percent with a central tendency range of 2.0 to 2.3 percent. For 2018, the overall projected range is 1.8 to 2.3 percent with a central tendency range of 1.8 to 2.1 percent. The long-run trend for real GDP has a range of 1.8 to 2.4 percent growth with a central tendency range of 1.8 to 2.1 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. Chart A3: Historic and Projected GDP Growth, 2007 to Long Run Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 16, 2016. Chart A4 shows the decline in national unemployment following the most recent recession, as well as current projections close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). Compared to the December forecast, the March forecast for the unemployment rate was slightly lower through 2018, although the long run range 21
remained the same. While the central tendency remains at 5.0 percent or lower into the long run, the significantly higher ranges most likely reflect recessionary concerns among some Fed officials. For 2016, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.5 to 4.9 percent with a central tendency range of 4.6 to 4.8 percent. For 2017, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.3 to 4.9 percent with a central tendency range of 4.5 to 4.7 percent. For 2018, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.3 to 5.0 percent with a central tendency range of 4.5 to 5.0 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 4.7 to 5.8 percent with a central tendency of 4.7 to 5.0 percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. Chart A4: Historic and Projected Unemployment, 2007 to Long Run Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 16, 2016. The next quarterly release of projections for GDP and Unemployment will be released following the FOMC meeting scheduled in June. These projections will be updated in the June 2016 edition of Regional Economic Indicators. 22