Real Gross Domestic Product 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q3 4.1% 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-10 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Disposable Personal Income and Expenditures 6 5 4 12 Month % Change Real Disposable Personal Income 6 5 4 3 November 3 2 2 1 1 0 0-1 -2-3 Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Month over Month % Change September October November Income 0.4-0.2 0.1 Expenditures 0.2 0.4 0.5-4 -4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1 -2-3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
US Income Distribution
Single-Family Home Sales 5.5 Millions of Homes 5.5 5 November 4.3 mil. 5 4.5 4.5 4 4 3.5 Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits 1.4 Millions of Starts & Permits 1.4 1.2 1.2 1990-1999 Average Housing Starts 1.0 1.0 0.8 Starts November 0.8 0.6 0.6 Permits 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits 0.7 Millions of Starts & Permits 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 Permits 0.5 0.4 November 0.4 0.3 1990 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts 0.3 0.2 Starts 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Real Private Nonresidential Construction Put in Place 420 2009$, Billions 420 400 380 360 340 320 Twelve-Month Moving Average 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 November 300 280 260 240 220 220 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Notes: Deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures. Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Core Capital Goods 75 Current $, Billions 75 70 New Orders November 70 65 65 60 Shipments 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Balance of International Trade -20 Current $, Billions -20-25 -25-30 -35 November -$34 bil. -30-35 -40-40 -45-45 -50 Six-Month Moving Average -50-55 -55-60 -60-65 -65-70 -70 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
CBO Long Term Budget Outlook
Civilian Unemployment Rate 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 Percent December 6.7% 6.5% Threshold FOMC Forecast 4 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the October 28-29 meeting. 10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics 11 10 9 8 7 6 5
Civilian Labor Force Participation 67 66.5 66 Percent of Population 67 66.5 66 65.5 65.5 65 Participation Rate, Age-Adjusted 65 64.5 64.5 64 Participation Rate December 64 63.5 63.5 63 63 62.5 62.5 62 62 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 12 Month % Change 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 FOMC Forecast 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 2% Longer-run Target November.9% 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-1.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the October 28-29, 2013 meeting. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
Capital Market Rates 10.5 Percent 10.5 9.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 Corporate BBB Bond Rate 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 January 10th 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate Corporate AAA Bond Rate 0.5 0.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.5 1.5 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
North Carolina Industry Structure 2012 Natural Resources & Mining 0.6 0.1 Construction 4.2 4.3 Manufacturing 8.9 11.0 Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information 2.0 1.7 Financial Activities 5.8 5.1 13.4 Professional & Business Services 13.4 Education & Health Services 13.8 10.3 Leisure & Hospitality 10.4 4.1 Other Services 3.6 Government U.S. North Carolina 19.1 18.7 15.2 16.4 17.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Employment Share (Percent) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
South Carolina Industry Structure Natural Resources and Mining 0.6 0.2 Construction 4.2 4.2 Manufacturing 8.9 Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information 2.0 1.4 Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 2012 U.S. South Carolina 11.8 19.1 19.1 5.8 5.3 13.4 12.6 15.2 11.3 10.3 11.7 4.1 3.7 16.4 18.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Employment Share (Percent) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
North Carolina Location Quotients
South Carolina Location Quotients
North Carolina Industry Growth November 2013 Total 1.7 1.4 Natural Resources & Mining 3.6-1.8 Construction 3.0-1.4 Manufacturing 0.7 0.1 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2.0 2.0 Information 0.0 Financial Activities 1.0-0.5 Professional & Business Services 3.4 4.8 Education & Health Services 1.8 1.8 Leisure & Hospitality 3.0 2.0 Other Services 0.7-0.5 Government -0.1-0.4 U.S. North Carolina -4.0-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Percent 7.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
South Carolina Industry Growth Total 1.7 1.8 Natural Resources & Mining 3.6-2.6 Construction 3.0 Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services -2.6 Government November 2013 0.7 0.0-1.6 1.0 0.7-0.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.2 3.4 3.0 3.0 U.S. South Carolina -4.0-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Percent 6.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
North Carolina Initial Unemployment Claims 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
South Carolina Initial Unemployment Claims 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
North Carolina Unemployment Rate 12.0 11.0 10.0 U.S. North Carolina Percent 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 November 2013 US: 7.0% NC: 7.4% 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
South Carolina Unemployment Rate 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 U.S. South Carolina Percent 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 November 2013 US: 7.0% SC: 7.1% 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
North Carolina Labor Force Participation Labor Force Participation Rate, North Carolina SA, % 70 Labor Force Participation Rate, United States SA, % 70 68 68 66 66 64 64 62 62 60 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 01/21/14 60
South Carolina Labor Force Participation Labor Force Participation Rate, South Carolina SA, % 68 Labor Force Participation Rate, United States SA, % 68 66 66 64 64 62 62 60 60 58 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 01/21/14 58
Income Distribution
Housing Starts and Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ/Haver Analytics
Commercial Real Estate Markets
Survey Comparison Richmond Manufacturing Survey and ISM Manufacturing Survey 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25-60 20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Richmond Manufacturing Survey (Left Axis) ISM Manufacturing (Right Axis) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond/Institute of Supply Management
Survey Comparison Richmond Service Sector Survey and ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 65 60 55 50 45 40-40 35 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Richmond Service Sector Survey (Left Axis) ISM Nonmanufacturing (Right Axis) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond/Institute of Supply Management
Carolinas Survey
Federal Spending by State 60 55 VA $54.82 Billions ($) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 MD $27.28 DC $18.56 Total U.S.: $456,637,074,295 Fifth District: $113,481,733,961 Fifth District Share of Total Spending: 24.9% 10 5 0 SC $6.30 NC $5.38 WV $1.14 VA CA TX MD PA DC FL MA MO AZ WA CT IL CO AL NY TN GA OH NM NJ MS KY SC MI NC LA IN UT WI OK NV HI MN AK ID KS NH ME IO OR WV AR NE ND RI PR SD GU MT DE VT WY VI AE MP AS MH MC PW OI UKN Source: USASpending.gov