National Bank of Moldova. Translation. Annual Report. 1 Grigore Vieru Avenue MD 2005 Chișinău

National Bank of Moldova Translation Annual Report 2012 1 Grigore Vieru Avenue MD 2005 Chișinău www.bnm.md E-mail: official@bnm.md

Annual Report (NBM, 2012) Note The report was compiled using the latest statistical data held by the National Bank of Moldova, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance. Also, were used data provided by international organizations and central banks of neighboring countries. Computation of some statisitcal data was conducted by the National Bank of Moldova. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, and the use of data in studies is allowed with the proper specification of the source. National Bank of Moldova 1 Grigore Vieru Avenue MD-2005, Chişinău Tel.: (373 22) 409 006 Fax: (373 22) 220 591 ISBN 978-9975-4353-2-1 ISBN 978-9975-4438-9-0 c National Bank of Moldova, 2013

Foreword The year of 2012 proved to be the year of macroeconomic turmoil and challenges against the background of the unfavorable external environment, marked by the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone. The escalation of the euro zone crisis has highlighted yet again the vulnerability of the Republic of Moldova to the external environment developments. However, we can say that the Republic of Moldova has successfully coped with external challenges in 2012. Given the share of trade with the European Union, and the large number of Moldovan migrants working in this region, the tensions in the Eurozone have affected the local economic environment through the capital flows and foreign trade channels. The national economy in 2012, which was affected by the severe drought, contracted by 0.8 percent compared to the previous year. As for the NBM, the year of 2012 was successful in terms of achieving its fundamental objective of ensuring and maintaining price stability, despite the risks of deflation recorded at the beginning of the year. For the first time in the last 20 years, the annual inflation rate has remained at single digit levels for three consecutive years. During 11 months of 2012 the consumer price index stood near the target of 5.0 percent,

Annual Report (NBM, 2012) reaching the level of 4.1 percent in December 2012. Bringing inflation close to the target of 5.0 percent has brought many benefits both to investors and the public, and to the development of a sustainable economic potential of the Republic of Moldova. The last forecast of the National Bank of Moldova Bank places the inflation rate for 2013 and 2014 in the bottom part of the variation range of ±1.5 percentage points from the target of 5.0 percent. The reduction of domestic and external demand and the disinflationary pressure from the appreciation trend of the nominal exchange rate of the national currency against the currencies of major trading partners have largely helped inflation to fall within the target range. The inflationary environment was supported by the increase in food prices on the background of drought in the region in conjunction with the side effects of increases in utility tariffs in the fall of 2011 and increase in electricity tariff in May 2012. During 2012, the National Bank of Moldova purchased on the domestic foreign exchange market a net amount of USD 310.1 million in order to counter disinflationary pressures from domestic demand as well as to ensure the consolidation of foreign exchange reserves. The historical maximum level of foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2012 has further strengthened the financial security of the State. The official reserve assets amounted to USD 2515.0 million at the end of 2012, which is by 28.0 percent more than in 2011, covering about 4.7 months of imports. The specific conditions of 2012 demanded an adaptive monetary policy, able to respond promptly and effectively to economic vulnerabilities. The deterioration of economic outlook for 2012 and 2013 made the National Bank of Moldova to carry out a pronounced expansionary monetary policy. Thus, the National Bank of Moldova reduced in the first two months of 2012 the monetary policy interest rate from 8.5 percent to 4.5 percent annually. Maintaining the monetary policy interest rate at the level of 4.5 percent by the end of 2012 ensured real monetary incentive conditions for domestic demand, without jeopardizing the acceleration of inflation above the target of 5.0 percent. The loosening of the monetary policy supported the continued decline in interest rates on loans and boosted the lending activity of banks. In 2012, the balance of loans granted in MDL to the economy and the population increased by 20.1 percent. In December 2012, the interest rate on new loans in MDL recorded a historical minimum level of 11.98 percent.

The National Bank has paid particular attention to strengthening the domestic banking sector by focusing on improving the legal framework that targeted streamlining the regulatory framework and efficiency of banking supervision. In particular, new reporting requirements have been imposed to licensed banks, which involves increasing the transparency of banks and measures have been taken to stimulate the lending activity of banks. In December 2012, the new Medium-term Monetary Policy Strategy was approved, which is a continuation of the Monetary Policy Strategy of the National Bank of Moldova for 2010-2012. The new strategy includes primary directions of activity of the monetary authority on medium-term, aimed at strengthening the monetary policy framework specific for the inflation targeting regime and achieving the fundamental objective of ensuring and maintaining price stability. In 2012, we managed to anchor inflation expectations around the target of 5.0 percent, including by increasing transparency and the quality of communication of the National Bank with various target groups and by strengthening the NBM credibility. We believe that this credibility is the reward for our work. Thank you for your support! Dorin Drăguțanu Governor

Annual Report (NBM, 2012) Contents Summary 4 1 World economy in 2012 9 2 The economic situation of the Republic of Moldova in 2012 14 2.1 Real sector..................... 14 2.2 Inflation....................... 21 2.3 Public sector.................... 26 2.4 The evolution of the external sector of national economy...................... 28 2.5 External debt of the Republic of Moldova... 34 3 The activitity of the National Bank of Moldova in 2012 37 3.1 Achievements of the monetary and foreign exchange policy in 2012............... 37 3.2 The results of monetary and exchange rate policy during 2012..................... 50 3.3 Monetary market.................. 57 3.4 Activity of the National Bank of Moldova as fiscal agent of the state........ 64 3.5 Foreign Exchange Market............. 65 3.6 Supervision and regulation of banks activity... 77 3.7 Payment system.................. 86 3.8 Information system for reporting to the National Bank of Moldova.................. 89

1 3.9 Information technology.............. 90 3.10 Cash operations................... 92 3.11 International Cooperation of the Republic of Moldova 96 3.12 National Bank of Moldova employees and professional development................. 104 3.13 Internal Audit.................... 105 3.14 Activity of the Council of Administration of the National Bank of Moldova............. 106 3.15 Completion and amendment of normative acts in 2012............... 107 3.16 Analysis of financial situation for 2012...... 115 A Statistical tables 128

2 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) List of abbreviations AIPS BSCEE CHIBID Automated Interbank Payment System Group of Banking Supervisors from Central and Eastern Europe Average interest rate at which the contributing banks are available to borrow in the interbank money market financial means in Moldovan lei from other banks CHIBOR Average interest rate at which the contributing banks are available to lend in the interbank money market financial means in Moldovan lei to other banks CIS COREP CPI DCFTA DNSS EBRD ECF EFF EIB EU EUR FCC FDI FINREP GDP IBRD Commonwealth of Independent States Prudential reporting standard under the EU Capital Requirements Directive Consumer Prices Index Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union Designated-Time Net Settlement System European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Extended Credit Facility Extended Fund Facility by IMF European Investment Bank European Union European Union Currency Freely convertible currency Foreign direct investment Financial reporting process Gross Domestic Product International Bank of Reconstruction and Development

CONTENTS 3 IDA IFAD IFRS IMF IPPI IT MDL NAER NBC NBM NBS NEA REER REPO RTGS RUB International Development Association International Fund for Agricultural Development International Financial Reporting Standards International Monetary Fund Industrial production price index Information Technology Moldovan leu National Agency for Energy Regulation National Bank Certificates National Bank of Moldova National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova National Employment Agency Real effective exchange rate of the national currency State securities trading agreement with further redemption of the same state securities on a certain date or upon request at a certain price, fixed on the selling date Real-Time Gross Settlement System Russian ruble SIRBNM NBM Electronic Reporting System SB SDR UAH USA USD VAT XBRL State Bonds Special Drawing Rights (XDR) Ukraine Hryvnia The United State of America U.S. dollar Value added tax Extensible Business Reporting Language. The format of data submission used for the creating and sending of reports in electronic form.

4 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) Summary The world economy in 2012 combined the problems of the euro area sovereign debt crisis and fiscal problems of the U.S., which led to an increased vulnerability of major currencies and a reduction in international trade. Additionally, the decreased demand from economies with a significant weight in world consumption led to a reduction in international prices of raw materials, which is unfavorable for emerging economies and especially for those significantly dependent on the volume and price of raw materials exported. The difficulties range was completed with strong uncertainties that prevailed in 2012 on the financial markets, certain events causing severe turbulence throughout the world. The Moldovan economy recorded a contraction of 0.8 percent in 2012 compared to 2011, primarily due to the negative development of the agricultural sector, attributable to a pronounced drought, and due to a poor domestic demand. At the same time, the external environment was less favorable, with the contracting European economy, which resulted in a moderate external demand, the exports increasing by only 2.3 percent. Household consumption increased only by 1.0 percent in 2012, the increase being much lower than in 2010 and 2011, due to the slower growth in disposable income of the population and reduced consumption of goods and services in kind. General government final consumption recorded an increase of 0.5 percent. Gross capital formation declined by 2.8 percent, driven solely by the evolution of changes in inventories component. Gross fixed capital formation recorded an increase of 0.4 percent, mostly due to augmented expenditures for capital repairs of fixed capital, while the capital investment registered a decline of 3.1 percent. The modest growth rate in domestic consumption and the investment s contraction led to a lower growth rate of imports of goods and services, so it constituted 2.5 percent. Agriculture declined by 23.3 percent, while gross value added in industry grew by only 0.5 percent. In 2012, the unemployment rate was 5.6 percent, decreasing by 1.1 percentage points. However, the reduction in the number of unemployed people has not been accompanied by a positive trend in employment. In 2012, the National Bank of Moldova created the conditions necessary to keep the inflation rate within the range of 5.0 percent ± 1.5 percentage points, a goal set for 2012 according to the National Bank s monetary policy strategy for 2010-2012.

Summary 5 Thus, in February 2012, the annual inflation rate entered the respective corridor, representing 6.1 percent, and for the month of December 2012-4.1 percent. At the same time, in December 2012, the annual inflation rate was by 3.7 percentage points lower than the 7.8 percent recorded in December 2011. During 2012, the annual rate of core inflation has registered a downward trend, mainly due to the slowing domestic demand, so it fell from 5.9 percent in January to 3.7 percent in December. The dry weather conditions in the region, which caused increases in food prices, were the main factors that have exerted inflationary pressures during 2012. At the same time, price increases in the CPI were favored by side effects caused by rises in tariffs in the fall of 2011 and tariff increases in electricity in May 2012. The main factor that weakened the price increase during 2012 was a lower aggregate demand than in the previous years due to the slowdown in the growth of household disposable income. The nominal exchange rate of the national currency against the currencies of major trading partners exercised broadly disinflationary pressures in the reporting period. Quantifying the macroeconomic situation, the trends and projections of macroeconomic indicators in the medium term, the inflation outlook in the short and medium term on the background of potential risks and uncertainties in the reference period, as well as to anchor inflationary pressures, the National Bank has promoted during 2012 an adaptive monetary policy under a low inflation, monitoring and anticipating developments in the domestic and international economic environments, so that through the flexibility of the operational framework specific to the inflation targeting strategy, it ensured price stability in the medium term. Thus, in 2012, the National Bank of Moldova has decided on two consecutive reductions of the monetary policy interest rate by 2.0 percentage points. Within the meeting of the Council of Administration of the NBM on January 26, 2012, after the assessment of the balance of risks associated with the inflation outlook in the medium term, it was decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 8.5 to 6.5 percent annually. On February 23, 2012, due to the persistence of deflationary risks determined by a potential decrease in the economic activity and domestic demand, and the continued deterioration of expectations on developments in global economic activity, it has been decided to further reduce the monetary policy rate by 2.0 percentage points, from 6.5 percent to 4.5 percent. Until the end of 2012, the aforementioned rate was not changed, being maintained at the level of 4.5 percent. That decision was aimed at anchoring inflation expectations in terms of strengthening the prospects of keeping inflation within

6 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) the range of variation of ± 1.5 percentage points from the target of 5.0 percent. The set of monetary policy instruments used by the National Bank of Moldova, corresponding to the existent operational framework, has proved to be still appropriate for monetary policy implementation requirements. Under the influence of increased liquidity excess, the liquidity injection activity of the NBM in 2012 can be characterized as a secondary one, as the liquidity sterilization operations from the market, like in 2011, continued to play the main role. The standing facilities regime (overnight deposits and credits) in 2012 allowed banks to manage their liquidity efficiently and provided National Bank of Moldova with more flexibility to conduct the monetary policy. In 2012, the required reserves mechanism continued to exercise the monetary control function, which is closely correlated with that of liquidity management by the NBM. Maintaining the required reserves ratio at the level of 14.0 percent of the base was explained by the passivity of interbank money market, aiming at improving its quantitative and qualitative indicators and at improving the transmission mechanism. The firm management of liquidity in the banking system aimed at ensuring the proper functioning of the money market, maintaining the balance between price stability and national economic recovery. The NBM intervened in the foreign exchange market during 2012 as a buyer of foreign currency in order to ensure that the annual inflation rate would fall within the range of variation of ± 1.5 percentage points from the target of 5.0 percent, and in order to strengthen the foreign exchange reserves. Amid a relatively low demand of foreign currency from economic agents, the foreign currency excess was generated by a net supply of foreign currency from individuals and a massive net inflow of foreign loans and investments. At the same time, the increase of the balance of current accounts and deposits in foreign currency of individuals and legal entities contributed to increased liquidity in foreign currency on the domestic foreign exchange market. In light of these developments, and within the limits of the promoted monetary policy, the NBM has absorbed in 2012 the foreign currency excess by purchasing foreign currency from the interbank foreign exchange market in the amount of USD 310.1 million. At the end of 2012, the official reserve assets amounted to USD 2515.0 million, increasing by 28.0 percent from the end of 2011,

Summary 7 covering about 4.7 months of imports (in 2011 3.6 months of imports) and 110.6 percent of the total external debt of the Republic of Moldova in the short term. On December 31, 2012, in the Republic of Moldova were 14 banks licensed by the National Bank of Moldova, including four branches of foreign banks and financial groups. On February 15, 2012, the NBM has withdrawn the license to conduct financial activity of C.B. "Universalbank" S.A. It should be mentioned that, from January 1, 2012, banks have started using the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Tier I capital in the banking sector amounted to MDL 6924.0 million, decreasing by MDL 473.5 million (6.4 percent) as compared to the beginning of 2012. As of December 31, 2012, Tier I capital of banks corresponded to the established minimum standard ( MDL 200.0 million), with the exception of two banks. The Tier I capital decrease was due to the increase of calculated amount, but unreserved, of the allowances for impairment losses on assets and conditional commitments by MDL 977.2 million or by 61.1 percent, which is excluded from the calculation of Tier I. Allowances for impairment losses on assets and conditional commitments increased due to the worsening of the loan portfolio quality at some banks. It should be mentioned that, in accordance with the Regulation on Risk Weighted Capital Adequacy, on December 31, 2012, the amount of minimum capital was set at MDL 200.0 million. The average risk-weighted capital adequacy on December 31, 2012 has still maintained at a high level - 24.4 percent, indicating a high degree of safety of banks, determined by the existence of a potential for conducting operations without affecting the capital. However, a bank does not comply with this indicator. During 2012, the Moldovan banking sector has recorded the following trends. The assets under IFRS amounted to MDL 58304.4 million, increasing by MDL 9022.4 million (18.3 percent) from the beginning of the year. The asset growth was determined both by increasing debt to MDL 8414.1 million (21.2 percent) and by increasing capital (IFRS) by MDL 608.3 million (6.3 percent). The share of non-performing loans (substandard, doubtful and compromised) in total loans has increased by 1.6 percentage points from the beginning of the year, representing 14.5 percent on December 31, 2012. For 2012, the return on assets and return on equity of licensed banks have recorded the value of 1.1 percent, and 5.6 percent,

8 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) respectively, decreasing compared to the end of 2011 by 0.7 percentage points and 5.0 percentage points, respectively. The net interest margin was 5.1 percent on December 31, 2012, decreasing by 1.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2011. Long-term liquidity in the banking sector was 0.7 (maximum 1.0) as on December 31, 2012. Current liquidity in the banking sector was 32.9 percent (minimum 20.0 percent) at the end of 2012. Both indicators are respected by all banks.

9 Chapter 1 World economy in 2012 The world economy in 2012 combined the problems of the euro area sovereign debt crisis and fiscal problems of the U.S., which led to an increased vulnerability of major currencies and a reduction in international trade. Additionally, the decreased demand from economies with a significant weight in world consumption led to a reduction in international prices of raw materials, which is unfavorable for emerging economies and especially for those significantly dependent on the volume and price of raw materials exported. The difficulties range was completed with strong uncertainties that prevailed in 2012 on the financial markets, certain events causing severe turbulence throughout the world. After several consecutive downgrades of the forecasts for global economic growth during 2012, the IMF reported an estimative global economic growth in 2012 of 3.2 percent, by 0.8 percentage points less than in 2011. Advanced economies have recorded an overall growth of 1.2 percent, while the emerging economies grew by 5.1 percent. Both advanced and emerging economies recorded the lowest economic growth level since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 (Chart 1.1). The advanced economies have recorded modest growth rates in 2012, in some cases registering regressions (Chart 1.2). The U.S. economy has been subject to problems related to fiscal policy, reduced private consumption, given the high rate of unemployment, reduced government spending and decreased investment, given the significant uncertainty regarding the evolution of the U.S. economy that led investors to move to safer markets. In 2012, the U.S. GDP grew by 2.2 percent. During the analyzed period, the Federal Reserve continued the expansionary monetary policy, given that inflationary pressures were declining, the annual inflation accounted for 1.7 percent in December 2012. At the same time, the measures taken during 2012 led to a decrease in unemployment 1 from 8.3 percent in January to the 7.8 percent level in December. 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 Chart 1.1: The average annual growth rate in world economy (%) 6.1 2.7 3.0 0.1 1.6-3.5 7.6 6.4 1.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Advanced economies Emerging economies World economy 5.1 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update April 2013 Chart 1.2: Average annual growth rate in advanced economies in 2012 (%) 2.2 USA 2.0 Japan Source: Eurostat 0.7 Germany 0.0 France -1.4 Spain Zona euro (-0.6 %) -2.4 Italy 0.3 United Kingdom 1 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted series

10 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) The economic situation in the euro area in 2012 was characterized by increasing difficulties in the sphere of public deficits in the southern states, lower demand, higher unemployment and their consequences that spread to the real sector. According to the data published by Eurostat, real GDP in 2012 for the 17 countries of the euro area recorded a contraction of 0.6 percent, due to the unfavorable impact of reduced private consumption and investment. The external demand has had a positive contribution to the growth rate of the economy, causing a slower pace of contraction. The exports rose over four consecutive quarters, although at a lesser extent than in previous years, a trend driven by the EUR depreciation and by the position of some economies (e.g. Germany) in international competitiveness rankings. At the same time, the reduction of consumption had a significant impact on the volume of imports, which experienced setbacks during 2012. The unemployment has increased substantially, recording in December 2012 a rate of 10.7 percent in the EU and 11.8 percent in the euro area, varying greatly in member countries on average from 5.0 to 26.0 percent. Inflation in the euro area declined gradually during the year, reaching in December 2012 the lowest value in the last two years of 2.2 percent. The highest increases were registered in energy, followed by food, tobacco and alcoholic beverages. Romania 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Chart 1.3: Average annual growth rate of GDP and CPI in Romania (%) 7.9 7.3 5.6 6.1 5.8-6.6-1.1 3.3 2.2 0.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP CPI Source: Romania National Institute of Statistics The Romanian economy in 2012 recorded a modest increase of 0.7 percent. The National Institute of Statistics notes that the negative contribution of agriculture has mitigated the growth in the services sector and the positive impact of net taxes on GDP, while industry and construction recorded a relative halt. The pace of industrial production showed signs of slowing towards the end of 2012. Thus, the industrial production stagnated on average in 2012, a situation preceded by years of uninterrupted growth. In 2012, the exports recorded negative developments and decreased on average by 3.0 percent compared with 2011, while domestic demand in many economies in the euro area declined. The unemployment rate in Romania has reached at the end of 2012 levels similar to those recorded after the economic crisis hit in 2009. In addition, starting with the second half of 2012, the unemployment rate dropped below 7.0 percent for the first time in the last three years. The inflation rate in late 2012 was above the range of variation of 1.0 percentage points from the target of 3.0 percent and reached 5.0 percent annually in December 2012 due to significantly higher than expected food and energy prices (Chart 1.3). Russian Federation In 2012, the Russian economy has experienced the most modest increase since the beginning of the recovery after the global

Chapter 1. World economy in 2012 11 financial crisis. The gross domestic product rose by 3.4 percent compared to 4.3 percent in 2011. Private consumption has become the main factor stimulating economic growth, supported by improving labor market and increasing social benefits, which have also increased the purchasing power of the population. At the same time, the exports of Russian Federation stalled due to a lower demand from the main trading partners, starting with those from the European Union. Imports, however, showed a significant increase due to the recovery in domestic demand. The agricultural sector decreased by 3.8 percent in 2012, compared to the 14.8 percent growth in 2011, due to the severe drought that destroyed crops in southern and central Russia. The mining sector has registered in 2012 a slight and uneven growth from one month to another. The increased volatility of oil prices during 2012 had a negative impact on the Russian economy, resulting in a strong fluctuation of RUB parity. In December 2012, the price level in Russia was by 6.6 percent higher than in December 2011, but on average in 2012 the prices increased by 5.1 percent (Chart 1.4). 15 12 Chart 1.4: Average annual growth rate of GDP and CPI in Russian Federation (%) 9 6 3 0-3 -6-9 14.1 5.2-7.8 11.7 6.9 8.4 4.5 4.3 3.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP CPI Source: Russian Federal Service of State Statistics 5.1 Ukraine In 2012, Ukraine s economy recorded a GDP growth of 0.2 percent. The economic growth slightly above zero is due to the significant advancement of GDP in the first two quarters of 2012, a period when the economic activity was stimulated by the co-participation of Ukraine in the organization of the European Football Championship, by the fact that the global economic activity was showing only the first tempering signs while the international prices of raw material and, in particular, of metals were still relatively high. However, in the second half of 2012, the GDP rate was negative, recording a decrease of 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2012 and 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to similar quarters of 2011, indicating that Ukraine s economy went into recession. As in many other countries, the economy of Ukraine was influenced during 2012 by the precarious situation of the world economy, which further emphasized domestic economic problems. Political and economic instability in the recent years has contributed significantly to the reduction of foreign investment and the deleterious consequences for the economy did not fail to appear. Also, Ukraine has recorded an increase in the tax gap in the recent years, due to the delay of cutting social spending and adjusting natural gas tariff for the population, the fiscal gap increased to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2012. The drought recorded in July and August 2012 led to a poor harvest, which affected the results of the agricultural sector. Exports were negatively influenced by the maintaining stable levels of UAH against the USD, while the USD has fared extremely volatile during 2012 (Chart 1.5). Chart 1.5: Average annual growth rate of GDP and CPI in Ukraine (%) 30 20 10 0-10 -20 2.3 25.2-14.8 15.9 9.4 8.0 4.1 5.2 0.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP CPI Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine 0.2

12 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) 60 45 30 15-15 -30-45 Chart 1.6: Average annual growth rate of world price index (%) 0 27.6-30.0 26.1 26.3-3.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Food Energy resources Metal Total Source: IMF Chart 1.7: Evolution of natural gas (USD/1000m 3 ) și petrol (USD/barrel) 130 120 110 398.0 398.2 399.6 405 400 395 Overall, the international prices of raw materials have been falling in 2012. The reduced global demand, halting transactions with certain raw materials in anticipation of clear predictions on the evolution of that market, and the reduced growth rate of industrial output in most major economies were the factors that led the international prices of raw materials to fall in 2012. According to the IMF data, the international prices of raw materials fell on average by 3.1 percent in 2012. The global metal price index recorded the greatest average reduction of 16.8 percent compared to 2011, generated by lower production rates in most major economies, but also possibly by the prices correction, given that for two consecutive years they have recorded a robust growth. In 2012, food prices fell on average by 1.8 percent compared with 2011. Although it was anticipated that food prices will increase because of the severe drought in the United States, Europe and the Russian Federation, the international markets registered a contrary situation, which may be explained by the existence of food reserves that replenished the deficit and, in some cases, the orientation of buyers towards substitute products (Chart 1.6). Urals brand oil price 2 recorded in 2012 an increased volatility ranging between USD 93.8-122.0 per barrel. During the first quarter of 2012, the prices showed a rapid increase, being stimulated by the satisfactory prospects for the global economy. The situation changed in April, when several difficulties faced by the economies have come out, determining the downward revision of the macroeconomic forecasts. Thus, from a maximum monthly average recorded in April 2012 of USD 122.0 per barrel, the international oil prices have steadily declined, recording the level of USD 93.8 per barrel in June 2012. Starting with June, the oil prices resumed their upward trend due to the embargo on oil imports from Iran and due to the increased danger of Strait of Hormuz closure. From August to the end of the year, oil prices have stabilized around USD 110 per barrel. The significant changes in the USD parity, workers strike, which led to decreased oil production in the North Sea, and the fluctuations of oil production volume in OPEC countries were other factors that have contributed to increased volatility in oil prices during 2012. The average price of Urals oil was USD 110.3 per barrel in 2012, increasing slightly by 1.0 percent compared with the average of 2011 (Chart 1.7). 100 388.3 90 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 Oil (Urals) Natural gas - right scale Source: Bloomberg, NAER, calcule BNM 390 385 Due to the extension for 2012 of the contract clauses for the acquisition of natural gas from the Russian Federation, the average purchase price of natural gas was USD 394.0 3 per 1000 m 3. In relation to the average price in 2011, this means an increase of 16.1 percent (Chart 1.7). 2 Bloomberg European Urals Northwest Europe Crude Oil Spot Price 3 NAER Annual Activity Report for 2012

Chapter 1. World economy in 2012 13 During 2012, the parity of international major currencies showed an increased volatility, being strongly influenced by the macroeconomic statistics of the economies involved. The USD depreciated significantly in the second half of the year due to worsening problems related to fiscal policy, and the results under expectations of the real sector. At the same time, the EUR has been affected by the problems of sovereign debt crisis and related decisions, which subsequently determined the euro area economy direction. The average parity of the USD against EUR was 1.29 in 2012, which means the USD appreciated or the EUR depreciated by 7.6 percent compared with 2011. The RUB depreciated significantly against the USD during April - June 2012, due to the reduction in oil price during this period and due to the dependence of the Russian economy on its development. In the second half of the year, the RUB against USD has stabilized. During 2012, the RUB depreciated by 5.8 percent against USD, recording an average exchange rate of 31.1 (Chart 1.8). Chart 1.8: Monthly evolution of exchange rates 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 EUR/USD 5/12 6/12 Source: CEB, Bank of Japan 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 JPY/USD - right scale 12/12 85.0 82.5 80.0 77.5 75.0 Another important feature of the global economy in 2012 was the evolution of labor markets of the euro area and neighboring economies. The unemployment rate 4 in the euro zone has gradually worsened, increasing from10.8 percent in January 2012 to 11.8 percent in December 2012. The worse situation is in Spain and Greece, where unemployment reached in November 2012 the peak of 26.2 percent and 26.6 percent, respectively. There have been also recorded reductions in unemployment in the region. In Romania, the average unemployment rate for 2012 was 7.0 percent compared to 7.4 percent recorded in 2011. In the Russian Federation the average unemployment rate decreased during 2012 by 1.0 percentage points compared to 2011, recording an average value of 5.5 percent. In 2012, the unemployment rate in Ukraine was 7.5 percent (Chart 1.9). 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 Chart 1.9: Average unemployment rate in euro area and neighboring economies (%) 11.4 7.0 5.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 7.5 Euro zone Romania Russian Federation Ukraine Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, Russian Federal Service of State Statistics 4 Eurostat, seasonally adjusted

14 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) Chapter 2 The economic situation of the Republic of Moldova in 2012 2.1 Real sector Gross Domestic Product 25 20 15 10-5 -10-15 -20-25 -30 Chart 2.1: Contribution of demand components to the GDP growth (p.p.) 5 0 7.8-6.0 7.1 6.8-0.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Government and private consumption Import Gross capital formation Export Household consumption of population GDP growth rate (%) Source: NBS, NBM calculus Operational data of the National Bureau of Statistics show that the annual growth rate of GDP turned negative in 2012 as a result of pronounced unfavorable evolution of the agricultural sector due to the drought, low domestic demand, but also due to a less favorable external environment, especially contracting European economy, which resulted in a moderate increase in exports. Therefore, the negative effect on the supply side, given the continued demand deficit, caused a contraction of economic activity by 0.8 percent in the reporting period. The quarterly evolution of this indicator shows a gradual decrease from 1.0 percent in the first quarter of 2012 to the value of minus 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter 2012. In terms of uses (Chart 2.1), the household consumption growth, although recording positive values in 2012, remains much lower (1.0 percent) than the 9.4 percent recorded in 2011. This development was due to the insignificant increase in household disposable income along with a significant slowdown in the annual growth of the wage bill compared to the previous years, and due to the contraction of consumption of goods and services in kind by 4.0 percent, a phenomenon that may be associated with the decrease of agricultural production in the mentioned period. Household expenditures for the purchase of goods has increased by 2.4 percent, while for services only by 0.5 percent. General government final consumption recorded an increase of 0.5 percent compared with 2011. Gross capital formation declined by 2.8 percent, driven solely by the evolution of changes in inventories component. Gross fixed capital formation recorded an increase of 0.4 percent, mostly due to increased expenditures

Chapter 2. The economic situation of the Republic of Moldova in 2012 15 for capital repairs of fixed assets, the capital investment registering a decline of 3.1 percent. Overall, gross capital formation resulted in a negative contribution to the GDP growth, which was not reported since 2009. Economic contraction in the euro area in 2012 resulted in a lower external demand for local goods and services, which resulted in an increase of only 2.3 percent of exports compared with 2011, and a tendency to increase the share of CIS countries in detriment of EU countries within the exports structure of the Republic of Moldova. The modest growth rate of domestic consumption and investment contraction depressed the growth rate of imports of goods and services, so it was 2.5 percent in the reporting period. In the fourth quarter 2012, both the annual rate of exports and that of imports turned negative (minus 3.3 and minus 1.9 percent respectively). By categories of resources (Chart 2.2), the GDP contraction in 2012 was caused by the negative contribution from agriculture, which has registered a sharp drop of 23.3 percent compared with 2011, due to the dry weather conditions. Manufacturing and the extractive industry showed insignificant increases (1.0 and 2.0 percent, respectively), which may be associated with the decrease of agricultural production in the first case and the modest growth of the construction sector in the latter case. 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Chart 2.2: Contribution of economic sectors to the GDP growth (p.p.) 7.8-6.0 7.1 6.8-0.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Agriculture Industry Trade Constructions Transport and comunications Other services Net taxes on products GDP growth rate (%) Source: NBS, NBM calculus On the other hand, the energy industry has contracted by 2.6 percent compared with 2011. As a result, the contribution of industry to the GDP growth was negligible. Overall, the value added of the goods sector decreased by 10.7 percent. Gross value added of services recorded an increase of 3.0 percent, mostly due to the evolution of trade, real estate, transport and communications, which increased by 4.2, 3.7 and 2.8 percent, respectively. Significant positive contributions were also generated by the financial activities and health and social services, which increased by 3.4 and 3.1 percent compared with 2011. In 2012, net taxes on products increased by 1.3 percent compared with 2011. Consumer demand In 2012, the annual rate of household consumption has increased much less in comparison with 2010 and 2011, increasing by 1.0 percent, by 8.4 percentage points less than in 2011. The positive dynamics of household consumption in 2012 was driven by the development of expenditure for the procurement of goods and services, which increased by 2.4 and 0.5 percent, respectively, in the reporting period.

16 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) Chart 2.3: Contribution of components (p.p.) to the household final consumption growth (%) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 12 5.8-8.1 9.2 9.4 1.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Consumption of goods and services in kind Expenditures for procurement of services Expenditures for procurement of goods Final consumption of households Source: NBS, NBM calculus Chart 2.4: Contribution of funding sources (p.p.) to the real growth of household consumption (%) 8 4 0-4 -8-12 -16-20 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 -20-30 -40 0.2 5.8-8.1-14.4 9.2 8.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Remittances Social insurance Consumption growth (%) Source: NBS, NBM calculus 7.9 9.4 Payroll fund Loans to individuals 5.6 1.0 Funding sources increase Chart 2.5: Gross fixed capital formation (%, versus the same period of the previous year) 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gross fixed capital formation - total Expenditures for development and procurement programs and databases Expenditures for capital repairs of fixed assets Capital investments Source: NBS, NBM calculus However, the positive contributions of the expenditure for the procurement of goods and services were mitigated by lower final consumption of goods and services in kind (by 4.0 percent). This development can be justified by the reduction of global agricultural production by 22.4 percent in 2012 compared with 2011. In 2012, the annual growth rate of consumption financing sources (Chart 2.4) was 5.6 percent, by 2.3 percentage points less than in 2011. It should be mentioned that the annual growth rate of funding sources was higher than that of consumption in 2012 (situation observed for the first time in the last five years). The increase in the funding sources on an annual basis by 5.6 percent was mainly supported by the real increase of remittances by 10.9 percent (which generated a contribution of 3.7 percentage points). However, despite the fact that the increase in remittances denominated in U.S. dollars has registered in 2012 a more modest increase in annual terms than in 2011 (in 2012 recorded an increase of 11.9 percent, by 9.8 percentage points less than in 2011), its contribution was higher than in 2011 due to the 3.2 percent depreciation of the average official exchange rate of the MDL against USD and a lower inflation rate than in 2011. At the same time, the total payroll increased in annual terms by 1.8 percent in the reporting period, resulting in a contribution of 0.8 percentage points to the consumption financing sources growth (a contribution by 3.7 percentage points lower than in 2011). The evolution of new loans continued to contribute positively to the consumption financing sources growth, its contribution (0.9 percentage points) being by 0.2 percentage points lower than in 2011. Payments related to social insurance rose by 0.9 percent, generating so a minor positive contribution (0.2 percentage points). Gross capital formation In 2012, the annual growth rate of gross capital formation turned negative (minus 2.8 percent). The negative dynamics was determined by the evolution of the changes in inventories component. Gross fixed capital formation continued the downward trend started in 2011, recording a slight increase in annual terms of 0.4 percent in 2012 (Chart 2.5). The most significant contribution was generated by the increase of expenditures for capital repairs of fixed assets (22.2 percent). At the same time, this increase was mitigated by the negative developments of the subcomponents capital investments (minus 3.1 percent) and expenditures for development and procurement of programs

Chapter 2. The economic situation of the Republic of Moldova in 2012 17 and databases (minus 1.9 percent). Negative contributions, but less significant, to the gross fixed capital formation were generated by the developments of the component inventories of unmounted equipment, purchase of books for libraries and expenditures for geological works. Investment in fixed capital In 2012, the investments in fixed capital, made by enterprises and organizations at the expense of all sources of funding, decreased in real terms by 4.1 percent as compared to 2011. Chart 2.6: Structure of investments in fixed capital by funding sources in 2012 Construction and assembly works in the total investment represented 51.5 percent. Compared with 2011, their volume decreased in real terms by 1.3 percent. 22.4% 7.7% 3.9% The main sources of financing investment activities (Chart 2.6) remain to be the own means of economic agents and population (58.6 percent), which decreased in real terms by 8.7 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. During the reference period, the share of foreign investors funds (7.4 percent of total) decreased by 1.5 percentage points compared to January-December 2011. From budgetary means (both from the state budget and from administrative-territorial units), about 11.6 percent of total investments was invested in long-term tangible assets. 7.4% Budget sources Administrative-territorial units budgets Means of economic agents and population Means of foreign investors Other sources Source: NBS, NBM calculus 58.6% Within the specific structure of investment in long-term tangible assets, a significant share was directed to the purchase of equipment, machinery and vehicles, which constituted 44.0 percent of the total volume of investments acquired (down by 1.3 percentage points versus 2011). The share of investments directed to the construction of buildings and edifices was 31.7 percent, decreasing by 3.0 percentage points from 2011. Within the structure of investment in long-term tangible assets by ownership, the public ownership businesses held a share of 37.1 percent, the non-state and mixed sector businesses holding the largest share of 62.9 percent, including businesses and individuals with private ownership - 40.1 percent of total investments, joint ventures and foreign-owned companies - 21.2 percent of total investments used in the country. Industrial production In 2012, the volume of industrial production in all forms of property has decreased in real terms by 3.1 percent compared to 2011. It should be mentioned that during 2012 there were recorded only three months with positive annual growth rates of industrial production (Chart 2.7). At the same time, the volume of industrial production recorded a pronounced reduction

18 Annual Report (NBM, 2012) 21 18 15 12-12 Chart 2.7: The evolution of industrial output in real terms (%, versus the same period of the previous year) 9 6 3 0-3 -6-9 12/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 Source: NBS Chart 2.8: The evolution of domestic trade (%, versus the same period of the previous year) 24 20 16 12 8 4 0-4 -8-12 -16 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 -20 Trade with goods Source: NBS, NBM calculus Trade with services Chart 2.9: The evolution in real terms of foreign trade (%, versus the same period of the previous year) 0 12/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 Source: NBS Export Import towards the end of the year. Thus, for the last five months of 2012, the average annual rate was minus 6.7 percent. The decrease in the volume of industrial production, compared to 2011, was due to lower production volumes in the energy industry and manufacturing by 4.4 and 3.0 percent, respectively. The mining industry recorded a minor increase in industrial production (0.8 percent). It should be mentioned that the most significant decreases in manufacturing were recorded in the following industrial activities: milling products (by 25.4 percent), processing and preserving of fruits and vegetables (by 24.4 percent), clothing (by 23.9 percent), tobacco products (by 20.4 percent), paper and cardboard production (by 19.3 percent), publishers, polygraph and informative materials reproduction (by 15.4 percent), metallurgy (by 13.9 percent), manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (by 13.3 percent), machinery and equipment production (by 12.4 percent) and production of leather, leather items and footwear (11.5 percent). Domestic trade In 2012, the turnover of enterprises, whose main activity is retail trade, registered a decrease of 0.5 percent compared to 2011. However, trade in services grew in annual terms by 3.1 percent during January-December 2012. It should be mentioned that during 2012, the annual rate of the volume of turnover of retail trade fluctuated around zero, recording in December a pronounced decline of 12.4 percent (Chart 2.8). At the same time, the annual trade volume of services provided to the population registered a different development than that of the retail trade. Thus, the annual rate of the volume of trade in services was mostly positive. Foreign trade During 2012, both the annual pace of exports and that of imports recorded a downward trend, showing clear signs of a slowdown in the economic activity of the Republic of Moldova. It should be mentioned that the annual rate of exports declined from 9.8 percent in January to minus 14.1 percent in December, and that of imports from 19.0 percent in the first month of the year to minus 5.7 percent in December (Chart 2.9). In 2012, compared with 2011, the exports of goods decreased by 2.5 percent, due to lower exports of goods to EU countries by 6.4 percent. However, the exports oriented towards CIS and other countries increased by 0.9 and 2.7 percent, respectively.

Chapter 2. The economic situation of the Republic of Moldova in 2012 19 The slowdown in the economic activity of the euro area and the worsening sovereign debt problem, which disrupted the activity in some countries, were the main factors that influenced the foreign demand for domestic products during this period. The imports of foreign products in 2012 grew by only 0.4 percent compared with 2011. The coverage rate of imports with exports in 2012 was 41.5 percent compared to 2011, when it recorded the value of 42.7 percent. Transport of goods In 2012, the enterprises of railway, road, river and airway transport have carried goods by 2.9 percent less as compared to 2011. This decrease was recorded as a result of lower volume of goods transported by railway (by 9.5 percent), driven primarily by a reduced volume of cereals and bakery products transported. During 2012, the annual growth rate of the annual volume of transported goods was both negative and positive (Chart 2.10). Thus, the annual growth rate in April-July 2012 was supported by the increase of goods transported by vehicles, due to the pronounced growth rates in the extractive industry. At the same time, the volume of goods transported in the fourth quarter of 2012 decreased by 3.5 percent as compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. At the end of the year the contraction was more pronounced, so that in December 2012 the volume of transported goods decreased by 18.6 percent compared with the same month of 2011. This evolution has been determined by the decreasing volume of goods transported by all means of transportation, except the river transport. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 -20-30 -40 Chart 2.10: Volume of transported goods (%, versus the same period of the previous year) 0 12/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 Source: NBS Agricultural production In 2012, the agricultural production fell by 22.4 percent compared to 2011 (Chart 2.11). This development was due to the decrease in crop production by 32.6 percent. At the same time, the volume of livestock production has decreased more moderately (1.1 percent). The decrease in livestock production is due to the decrease in the production of milk and eggs by 5.3 and 9.7 percent, respectively. At the same time, the significant negative influence on crop production was generated by a lower physical volume of all crops due to dry weather conditions. Thus, the harvest of corn, potatoes, wheat and vegetables has decreased by 61.0, 48.1, 37.8 and 36.7 percent, respectively, in the reporting period. 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 Chart 2.11: Global agricultural production (%, versus the previous year) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: NBS