Deutsche Bank. Dr. Josef Ackermann Chairman of the Management Board. San Francisco / San Diego / Denver / Chicago July 2008

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Transcription:

Deutsche Bank Dr. Josef Ackermann Chairman of the Management Board San Francisco / San Diego / Denver / Chicago 10-15 July 2008

Agenda 1 Solid performance in challenging times 2 Strategy: Staying the course Investor Relations 07/08 2

Relatively robust profitability through the downturn Aggregate IBIT, 3Q2007/4Q2007/1Q2008, reported, in EUR bn 8.1 8.7 2.6 2.2 (0.8) (0.8) (15.6) (15.9) (14.6) Note: For peers IBIT reflects IBIT attributable to the shareholders of the parent Investor Relations 07/08 3

and the more so, when compared on a like-for-like basis Aggregate IBIT, 3Q2007/4Q2007/1Q2008, adjusted for FV on own debt, in EUR bn 7.7 7.5 2.5 0.8 (2.0) (16.8) (17.3) (2.3) (20.1) Fair value gains on own debt Note: Based on FY2007 and 1Q2008 fair value gains on own debt and fair value gains on Mandatory Convertible Notes; for peers IBIT reflects IBIT attributable to the shareholders of the parent Investor Relations 07/08 4

Deutsche Bank results: 1Q2008 Highlights Loss before income taxes of EUR 0.3 bn, after tax EUR 0.1 bn In CB&S loss before income taxes of EUR 1.6 bn, reflecting mark-downs of EUR 2.7 bn in Leveraged Finance, Commercial Real Estate, Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (Alt-A) Gain from application of fair value option on own debt of EUR 77 m Income before income taxes in stable businesses of EUR 0.7 bn up 7% vs. 1Q2007; net new money in PCAM of EUR 11 bn Net gains on Corporate Investments assets of EUR 0.7 bn Tier I ratio of 9.2% Continued ready access to funding Investor Relations 07/08 5

Deutsche Bank results: 1Q2008 Summary In EUR bn 1Q2008 1Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 vs. 1Q2007 1Q2008 vs. 4Q2007 Net revenues 4.6 9.6 7.3 (52)% (37)% Provision for credit losses (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) 16 % (65)% Noninterest expenses (4.8) (6.3) (5.5) (25)% (14)% Income before income taxes (0.3) 3.2 1.4 Net income (0.1) 2.1 1.0 EPS* (in EUR) (0.27) 4.28 1.93 Pre-tax RoE (in %) (3) 44 18 * Diluted Investor Relations 07/08 6

Pre-tax results by segment Income before income taxes, in EUR m CB&S GTB CI 2,181 214 17% 250 305 123% 679 1Q2007 (1,604) 1Q2008 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2007 1Q2008 AWM PBC C&A 0% 188 188 4% 293 304 (17) (72) 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2007 1Q2008 Investor Relations 07/08 7

Inflows of net new money continued PCAM invested assets, in EUR bn Net new money 952 (42) (20) (5) 2 4 EUR 11 bn 4 896 31 Dec 2007 Performance FX effect Other AM PWM PBC 31 Mar 2008 Note: Figures may not add up due to rounding differences Investor Relations 07/08 8

Tier I ratio is strong Basel I Basel II 8.7 8.4 8.8 8.6 9.2 9% Target range 285 308 311 329 303 8% Tier I ratio, in % RWA, in EUR bn 31 Mar 30 Jun 30 Sep 31 Dec 31 Mar 2007 2008 Investor Relations 07/08 9

Markets appreciate Deutsche Bank's credit 5-year senior CDS, in bps 1 July 2007 30 June 2008 262 280 185 97 104 110 119 136 139 14 19 18 10 35 12 35 35 37 DB JPMorgan Chase Credit Suisse UBS Goldman Sachs Citi Morgan Stanley Merrill Lynch Lehman Brothers Source: Bloomberg, DB Investor Relations 07/08 10

Agenda 1 Solid performance in challenging times 2 Strategy: Staying the course Investor Relations 07/08 11

Five years of continued profit growth In EUR bn Income before income taxes Net income 33% p.a. 48% p.a. 8.7 8.3 6.1 6.5 6.1 2.8 4.0 1.4 2.5 3.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note: 2003 2005 based on US GAAP; 2006 onwards based on IFRS Investor Relations 07/08 12

Performance against key targets Reported Target definition Pre-tax RoE Diluted EPS In % In EUR 25% 24 33 29 26 54% p.a. 11.48 13.05 10.79 16 6.95 10 4.53 2.31 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note: 2003-2005 based on U.S. GAAP, 2006 onwards based on IFRS Investor Relations 07/08 13

Maintaining an attractive dividend policy Dividend per share, in EUR 3x 4.00 4.50 2.50 1.50 1.70 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Investor Relations 07/08 14

Maintaining market leadership positions In EUR bn Investment Banking Asset Management Revenues CB&S (1), FY 2007 PCAM Invested Assets, as of 31 Dec 2007 GS (2) JPM CS LEH (2) MS (2) Citi UBS MER Sales & Trading Origination & Advisory Loan products 16.5 UBS MER (3) CS MS JPM (4) GS (5) Citi (4) LEH Asset Management Private Banking and others 952 (1) GS excludes Principal Investments, MS excludes Investment Revenues; DB and CS include other revenues; translation into EUR based on average FX rate of respective reporting period (2) Diverging FY (3) Total Private Client Assets and 50% of BlackRock invested assets (4) Excluding PBC equivalent (DB invested assets comparable data n.a.) (5) Goldman Sachs Asset Management includes assets held for HNWI Sources: Company data Investor Relations 07/08 15

The aftermath of the crisis Challenges Opportunities (-) Lower leverage (and more efficient balance sheet usage) (+) Expanded opportunities for profitable liquidity provision (-) (-) Lower relevance of opaque, highly-structured products Reduced investor adventurism (+) (+) Huge scope to capture market share Increased premium for superior risk management and intellectual capital (-) Potentially increased regulation (+) Enhanced value of deep client relationships Investor Relations 07/08 16

Leveraging our global platform for accelerated growth Investment Banking Market conditions impact structured credit Share gains in 'flow' products Growth in non-oecd markets Growth in Commodities, Prime Services Share gain in Corporate Finance Redeploying resources to growth areas 'Stable' businesses GTB: Further momentum PBC: Returns on investments PWM: Growth reflects prior year investments and net inflows AM: Market conditions impact retail and real estate Capital, liquidity and exposures Continue to focus on reducing exposures in critical areas Core capital ratio remains within 8-9% range Sustained access to liquidity, reflecting strong funding base No change to strategy: We stay the course Business model re-affirmed: Core businesses and 'one-bank' approach Strict management of costs and risks Investor Relations 07/08 17

while longer-term trends continue to favour Deutsche Bank Trend Globalisation Features Growth of emerging markets Geographical boundaries disappear Global players act locally Deutsche Bank strengths Regional business diversification Global network Global capital market access Local presence and culture Growth of capital markets Growing investor appetite Innovation / structuring Corporate activity Leverage / risk distribution Leadership in Investment Banking World-class Sales & Trading Growth in Corporate Finance Risk management Global asset growth Private retirement funding Emerging market wealth creation Shift toward new asset classes Institutional investment evolves EUR 896 bn Invested Assets Global mutual funds / PWM Alternative investments Integrated product development Investor Relations 07/08 18

Additional information

Commercial Real Estate: Summary of traded whole loans Composition of traded whole loans and loan commitments (1) In EUR bn 31 Dec 2007 total loans and loan commitments 17.2 FX (0.6) Sales (0.2) 31 Mar 2008 total loans and loan commitments 16.4 15.5 2.0 Other Europe (2) Gross mark-downs (5.5% of traded loans and loan commitments) (0.9) Carrying value 15.5 100% Funded 6.5 Germany Development of mark-downs 7.0 North America In EUR m FY2007 1Q2008 Mark-downs (net of fees) (386) (342) Carrying value (1) Traded whole loans and loan commitments represent our gross exposure to loans and loan securities held on a fair value basis; our Commercial Real Estate business also takes positions in assets held for securitisation and commercial mortgage-backed securities (2) Related to trading commitments on our books as at 31 Mar 2008 Note: Figures may not add up due to rounding differences Investor Relations 07/08 20

Leveraged Finance exposure: Current status Composition of current loans and loan commitments In EUR bn 31 Dec 2007 total loans and loan commitments 36.2 FX (2.7) Sales (0.4) Restructured (0.5) 16.6 (2.9) 30.2 1.7 Loans held New Commitments 0.6 31 Mar 2008 total loans and loan commitments 33.1 Gross mark-downs* (9.2% of traded loans and loan commitments) (2.9) Carrying value 30.2 16.5 28.6 Trading Development of mark-downs In EUR m FY2007 1Q2008 Mark-downs (net of fees) (759) (1,770) * Related to traded loans and loan commitments on our books as at 31 Mar 2008 Note: Figures may not add up due to rounding differences Investor Relations 07/08 21 Funded Unfunded Gross markdowns Carrying value

Our numbers represent a true and fair view of the performance of our businesses Disclosed P&L benefit from fair value option on own debt, in EUR m * 400 3,761 4,161 1,377 1,375 2,752 675 859 1,534 951 403 1,354 643 615 569 621 1,184 1,264 328 837 1,166 158 201 359 77 95 * Also reflects fair value gain on Mandatory Convertible Notes of EUR 2.4 bn in 1Q2008 Note: Converted into EUR based on FX rate of respective reporting period Source: Company disclosures Investor Relations 07/08 22 FY2007 1Q2008

Cautionary statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include statements about our beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates and projections as they are currently available to the management of Deutsche Bank. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include the conditions in the financial markets in Germany, in Europe, in the United States and elsewhere from which we derive a substantial portion of our trading revenues, potential defaults of borrowers or trading counterparties, the implementation of our management agenda, the reliability of our risk management policies, procedures and methods, and other risks referenced in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Such factors are described in detail in our SEC Form 20-F of 26 March 2008 under the heading Risk Factors. Copies of this document are readily available upon request or can be downloaded from www.deutsche-bank.com/ir. This presentation also contains non-ifrs financial measures. For a reconciliation to directly comparable figures reported under IFRS refer to the 1Q2008 Financial Data Supplement, which is accompanying this presentation and available on our Investor Relations website at www.deutsche-bank.com/ir. Investor Relations 07/08 23