Virginia 50+ Voters January 2018 https://doi.org/10.26419/res.00203.001
Methodology AARP took a bipartisan approach to this research, using two firms, BSG and GSSG to conduct and advise on all phases of research design and execution. 800 telephone interviews were conducted from December 6-11, 2017 with registered voters ages 50+ in Virginia. At the 95% confidence level, the margin of error for the entire sample is ± 3.5% South Central/Valley Northern Richmond/ East Hampton Due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to 100%. For more information, contact S. Kathi Brown of AARP Research at skbrown@aarp.org. Inquiries from the Media should be directed to AARP s Media Relations Department at media@aarp.org. 2
Demographic Profile Of Virginia 50+ Voters Age Gender Race 34 34 32 46 between between 70 or 54 50 and 59 60 and 69 older Female Male White African-American Native American Hispanic 4% 2% 15% 75% Education Household Income CSR 26% some college or technical school 28% high school or less 45% college grad or higher <$50k $50-100k $100k+ 32% 28% 26% City Suburb Rural 26% 37% 37% AARP Party ID Veteran (self or family) 40% are AARP members 31% Democrat 40% Independent 29% Republican 53% Yes 47% No 3
Political Landscape
Although Views Of Senator Warner Split Along Partisan Lines, Independents Are Overwhelmingly Favorable To Him Favorability of Senator Warner by subgroup Favorable Unsure/Don t know Unfavorable Overall 59 14 27 <College 52 16 32 Dem 85 10 4 College+ 68 12 21 Ind Rep Men Women 50-64 65+ 32 58 14 53 64 59 59 17 54 15 14 15 13 25 33 22 26 28 <$50k $50k+ Richmond/East Central/ Valley South 67 59 69 55 43 22 13 13 13 6 20 28 25 32 35 White 58 12 30 Hampton 64 11 25 Non-white 66 18 16 Northern 60 18 22 QVA1: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Senator Mark Warner? 5
Democrats Confident Sen. Warner Cares About Them And Understands And Represents Them; Independents Less Sure He Understands Their Challenges Or Shares Views On Key Programs % who say this describes Sen. Warner well Overall Democrat Independent Republican Cares about people like you 33 58 60 89 Understands the challenges facing older Americans 32 53 48 80 Represents your views on Social Security and Medicare 29 53 49 81 Q5,6,8: How well does this describe Senator Warner? 6
Mindset Of Virginia 50+ Voters
A Majority See U.S. Economy On The Rise, With Virginia s Economy Not Far Behind And With Very Few Seeing Any Backsliding Is US/Virginia economy getting stronger or weaker? Getting stronger Staying same/don't know Getting weaker US economy 54 25 21 Virginia's economy 49 38 12 Numbers similar across VA regions Q15,Q16: In general would you say [the U.S./Virginia s] economy is getting much stronger, getting somewhat stronger, staying the same, getting somewhat weaker or getting much weaker? 8
But These Gains Aren t Necessarily Reflected In Their Own Lives; Nearly As Many Are Struggling As Getting Ahead And Most Are Stagnant, Even Non-retirees Which describes your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead Staying the same Struggling to keep up Falling backward 4 3 5 4 4 18 17 20 22 15 10 29 2 2 3 4 7 4 3 9 25 18 12 16 25 26 53 52 54 47 60 51 49 53 55 50 53 49 58 24 27 20 27 20 9 24 35 24 28 15 21 26 Overall Men Women 50-64 65+ <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Richmond/ East Central/ Valley South Hampton Northern Q17: Which of the following comes closest to describing your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead, staying where you are, struggling to keep up, or falling backward? *Base size <100, data for directional use only 9
Pres. Trump And Health Care Costs Are The Most Top-Of-Mind Fears Facing 50+ Voters Today What is the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today? Open end (showing answers >5%) Dems: 21% Donald Trump being president Health care costs Social Security/ Medicare not being available Nuclear war/north Korea 10 10 14 13 Ind: 13% Rep: 5% Terrorism/war Financial hardship Taxes/Tax Bill Economy/jobs not available 8 7 7 6 Q14: Please briefly describe the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today. Open end question; multiple responses accepted 10
Division Ranks As #1 Worry For Virginians, But Terrorism, Rising Prices, And Cost Of Health Care Aren t Far Behind On List Of Concerns How often do you worry about? Very often Somewhat often Total often How divided America and Americans have become 58 79 #1 for Dem/Ind/Rep Threat of terrorism in our country today 33 57 #2 for Reps Not being able to afford the health care you need 30 52 #2 for Dems and Inds Pricies rising faster than your income 27 54 Not being able to retire when you want to, for financial reasons 21 36 50-64: 55% often 65+: 16% often Having to take care of an aging parent or family member 20 36 50-64: 50% often 65+: 21% often Q22-Q27: Do you worry about this very often, somewhat often, from time to time or almost never? 11
These Struggles Leave Only 1-In-5 50-64 Year-Olds And 1-In-3 65+ Very Confident About Retirement How confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably through your retirement? Very Confident Somewhat Confident Total Confident 66 60 74 68 59 70 75 49 26 21 32 29 18 10 23 38 Overall 50-64 65+ White Non-white <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Q18: Overall how confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably throughout your retirement years? 12
Virginia Issues
Most Virginians 50+ See The Economy/Jobs As The Top Issue Facing The State, While Democrats Are Most Concerned With Health Care Costs What is the single most important issue facing Virginia today? Open end (showing answers >5%) Overall Democrat Independent Republican 20 15 20 26 13 20 10 9 9 8 12 10 10 7 7 7 7 4 6 6 8 6 7 1 Economy/jobs Health care/cost of health care Taxes/tax bill Infrastructure Drugs/heroin epidemic Pres. Trump Q13: In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Virginia today? Open end question; multiple responses accepted 14
Voters Support Policy Solutions To Address Key Challenges Facing The State, With Services For Opioid Addiction In Particular Seeing Intense And Overwhelming Support Across Parties Support for proposals Paying an additional tax in order to improve and create new transportation infrastructure in Virginia Additional services and addiction treatment for those who suffer from opioid addiction Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Overall 24 57 Overall 43 77 Dem 36 71 Dem 61 85 Ind 24 53 Ind 37 74 Rep 10 48 Rep 33 74 QVA4-5: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 15
Senator Warner s Ratings On His Efforts To Address The Crisis Are Net Positive, But It s Driven By Democrats, While Many (Especially Independents) Don t Give Him Benefit Of The Doubt How well does this describe Senator Warner? Is doing a good job fighting the opioid crisis Overall Well Don't know Not Well 76-16 fav/unfav to Warner 51-24 fav/unfav 36-53 fav/unfav 45 33 22 Dem 61 30 9 Ind 40 39 21 Rep 36 28 36 Q7: How well does this describe Senator Warner? 16
Voters From Across The Spectrum Prove Very Responsive To Warner s Care Initiatives If you knew Sen. Warner was prioritizing this issue would you be more or less favorable to him? Expanding telehealth and in-home care services for Medicare beneficiaries living with chronic illnesses Providing greater access to health and other benefits to people who do not have traditional full-time jobs Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable Total more favorable Overall 45 86 Overall 40 73 Dem 64 95 Dem 62 96 Ind 41 84 Ind 37 71 Rep 31 79 Rep 21 52 Very fav 70 98 Very fav 62 92 Sen. Warner Fav Smwt Fav Unfav 23 42 73 91 Sen. Swmt fav Warner Unfav Fav 16 42 48 82 Don't know 42 74 Don't know 36 62 QVA7-8: If you knew Sen. Warner was prioritizing this issue, would that make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable somewhat less favorable, or much less favorable to him? 17
Senior Issues
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Older Virginians Are Largely Distrusting Of Congress When It Comes To Social Security Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Social Security that will harm seniors Congress won't make changes to Social Security and the program will go bankrupt Both Neither Overall 50 31 10 5 AARP Members 56 25 10 4 Dem 64 22 9 3 Ind 46 33 10 4 Rep 40 38 10 7 50-64 47 37 9 5 65+ 53 24 11 4 Q30: Which of the following worries you more? 19
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS And The Same Holds True For Medicare Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Medicare that would hurt seniors and near-retirees Congress won't make any changes to Medicare and future retirees and our kids will pay the price Overall 52 30 AARP Members 59 28 Dem 67 18 Ind 53 27 Rep 34 46 50-64 54 31 65+ 50 29 Q31: Which of the following worries you more? 20
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Virginians 50+ Far More Concerned Congress Will Hurt Medicare And Social Security Than They Are About Spending And Deficit Reduction When it comes to reducing the deficit, which concerns you more? Congress will go too far and cut too much from programs like Medicare and Social Security Congress won't do enough to cut federal spending and reduce the federal deficit Overall 60 35 AARP Members 68 28 Dem 85 11 Ind 59 36 Rep 34 59 50-64 58 36 65+ 61 34 QVA9. When it comes to reducing the deficit, which of the following concerns you more? 21
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS On Reforms, Expansion To Dental Sees Strong Support, While Premium Support Is A Non-Starter Support for Medicare reforms Premium Support Medicare would no longer pay for health care services directly but instead would provide each senior with a set amount of money to help purchase an insurance plan in the private marketplace. Support Don't know Oppose Strongly Oppose Overall 23 69 54 Overall Expanding Medicare to pay for dental care services 79 18 Strongly Support 52 AARP Members 17 75 60 AARP Members 79 17 51 Dem 15 81 67 Dem 90 8 68 Ind 19 71 56 Ind 73 22 48 Rep 36 55 38 Rep 75 23 40 Q32: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal, which is sometimes called 'premium support? QVA5: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 22
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Majority Favorable Toward Medicaid Including Nearly Half Of Republicans, But Support Lacks Intensity Favorability toward Medicaid program Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total favorable 65 82 63 65 65 62 71 64 49 24 41 22 10 23 26 31 28 20 Overall Dem Ind Rep 50-64 65+ <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Q33: Thinking about the Medicaid program generally, would you say you have a very favorable view of Medicaid, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of Medicaid? 23
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Overwhelming Majority In Opposition To A Block Grant System For The Program Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? The current approach where states determine who qualifies for Medicaid and what services are covered within federal guidelines, and the states and federal government split the costs Change Medicaid so the federal government gives each state a set amount of money, known as a block grant, and the state decides how much state funding to give the program, who gets coverage and what services are covered Overall 60 26 Dem 74 14 Ind 63 23 Rep 42 44 Q34: Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? 24
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Compromise Is Not A Dirty Word: Voters Support Bipartisan Agreement To Lower Health Care Premiums At A 4:1 Ratio Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? Support Don't know Oppose 15 15 12 19 16 15 59 65 57 56 58 60 Overall Dem Ind Rep Men Women Q29: Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? 25
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Insurance and Drug Companies Seen As Top Reason For Rising Health Care Costs; Only Republicans Strongly Blame ACA What is most responsible for rising health care costs? Drug companies charging too much for medications and treatment 50 #1 for Inds and Reps #2 for Dems Health care insurance companies being too focused on profits and not peoples' health 44 #1 for Dems, #2 for Inds Doctors, hospitals, and other providers ordering unnecessary treatments and over-testing 27 The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare 22 #2 for Reps An aging U.S. population 13 Medical malpractice lawsuits 13 Q28: What do you think is most responsible for rising health care costs in this country? You may select up to two things. 26
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Older Virginians Blame High Drug Prices On Pharmaceutical Companies' Unethical Pricing Tactics Which comes closest to your own opinion? Prices for prescription drugs are the result of a pharmaceutical corporation monopoly that controls the prices 57 59 56 57 50 63 Prices for prescription drugs are determined on a free, open market that is subject to the laws of supply and demand 31 31 29 34 36 27 Overall Dem Ind Rep Men Women Q41: Which of the following comes closest to your own opinion? 27
SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS To Address This, Older Voters Strongly Support An Array Of Reforms; Nearly 3-In-4 Republicans Support Capping Drug Company Profits Support for prescription drug reform proposals Allow Medicare to negotiate with drug companies for lower prices Strongly support Somewhat support Total support 84 95 Total support among... Dem Ind Rep 98 92 94 Allow lower cost generic drugs to come to the prescription drug market faster 73 88 90 88 87 Ensure transparency in drug pricing 69 82 83 82 82 Close loopholes that allow pharmaceutical companies to keep prices high 65 70 67 70 72 Close loopholes that allow drug companies to prevent consumers from accessing lower priced generic drugs 61 69 69 70 70 Limit the profits that drug companies can make on medications 57 74 79 70 73 Q35-40: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 28
Constituent Outreach
Over 60% of 50+ Voters Receiving Some Communication From The Senator But More, Especially In The Mail And At Town Halls, Desired Which ways have you received info from Sen. Warner? Which would you most prefer? Currently receive Would prefer Mail sent to your home 32 44 Updates posted on Facebook or other social media Updates posted to the Senator's website 9 20 22 20 Events or town halls the Senator holds in your community 6 21 None of the above 15 36 Q10: In which of the following ways have you received news or information from Senator Mark Warner? Multiple responses accepted Q11: And in which of the following ways would you most like to receive news or information from Senator Mark Warner? Multiple responses accepted 30
Cable And Local TV News Dominate Sources Of Information; But 50-64 Year Olds Readily Reachable Through Radio And Online As Well % who rely on this as source of news/info on politics and government % who do this a few times a week Cable television news Local television news Newspapers and magazines Radio Your family and friends The organizations you belong to Facebook 50-64 65+ 40 42 38 24 20 29 14 55 54 73 75 66 69 65 Watch political news on cable television channels Watch political news on local television channels Read political news in print Read political news online Listen to political news on the radio Log on to Facebook 50-64 65+ 25 34 37 51 56 52 45 69 72 65 69 64 Twitter 4 11 Read Twitter 4 12 Q42: Which of the following sources do you rely on to obtain news and information about political issues and government? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. Q43: Which of the following do you do at least a few times a week? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. 31