BROOKINGS LATIN- AMERICA ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES Mauricio Cárdenas and Eduardo Levy-Yeyati
Outline 1. Assessing the Recovery 2. Common Threads 3. Country Vignettes Brazil: Growing tensions Argentina: Exhausting margins Venezuela: Recession or implosion? 4. Class Rankings
Outline 1. Assessing the Recovery 2. Common Threads 3. Country Vignettes Brazil: Growing tensions Argentina: Exhausting margins Venezuela: Recession or implosion? 4. Class Rankings
Assessing the recovery: Where are we now? PCA analysis based on 8 variables (all monthly, yoy growth, 2000:01-2010:07) Employment Import volume Industrial production volume GDP (quarterly) Equity prices Emerging market bond spreads (bp) Business confidence surveys (balances) Consumer confidence surveys (balances) Real Index Financial Index Confidence Index
Unsustainable trends Argentina Brazil Mexico Venezuela
Consistency without exuberance Chile Colombia Peru
Outline 1. Assessing the Recovery 2. Common Threads 3. Country Vignettes Brazil: Growing tensions Argentina: Exhausting margins Venezuela: Recession or implosion? 4. Class Rankings
Percent Rapidly narrowing output gaps 8 6 4 2 0-2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f -4-6 -8-10 -12 Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Uruguay Note: Cyclical output based on the log-linear de-trending. Source: Own construction based on Central Bank bulletins and the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Percents Reflect limits to non-inflationary growth 80% Growth decomposition 2000--2007 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Human Capital Physical Capital Labor Force/Population TFP 47.8% 3.4% 20% 10% 0% 14.9% 6.7% 7.2% 23.5% 6.4% 5.6% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 6.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.3% 1.2% 3.3% LAC-7 minus Venezuela plus Uruguay Rest of LAC Emerging Asia (w/o China) PCE China Notes: PCE: Peripheral core economies (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden). Source: own calculations based on data from Blyde, Daude and Fernández- Arias (2009).
Terms of Trade index 1999=100 Real GDP growth (%) Global Growth: Reduced Speed Ahead 300 16% 14% 250 200 150 100 50 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6% ToT LAC7 (1999=100) TOT Other LAC (1999=100) China GDP (% real change pa) G7 GDP (% real change pa) Note: LAC-7: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru,and Venezuela. Other LAC: Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador and El Salvador. Source: Own calculation based on data from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 2010f Percent Percent Cautious monetary unwinding is underway 9 Inflation (%) 23 Monetary policy interest rate (%) 8 7 18 6 5 13 4 3 2 1 8 3 0-1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru United States Uruguay -2 Brasil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru US Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook; Central Bank bulletins and Economist Intelligence Unit.
...while fiscal stimulus is still on The cyclically-adjusted fiscal primary surplus LAC cyclically-adjusted fiscal surplus and cyclical output Note: Estimated as the intercept from a regression of the primary surplus on cyclical output, where the latter is obtained from the log-linear de-trending of real GDP. Countries include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Source: Own construction based on Economist Intelligence Unit.
Percent Percent Hello, global equity funds Shares in total flows Source: own calculations based on EPFR.
1991M01 1991M06 1991M11 1992M04 1992M09 1993M02 1993M07 1993M12 1994M05 1994M10 1995M03 1995M08 1996M01 1996M06 1996M11 1997M04 1997M09 1998M02 1998M07 1998M12 1999M05 1999M10 2000M03 2000M08 2001M01 2001M06 2001M11 2002M04 2002M09 2003M02 2003M07 2003M12 2004M05 2004M10 2005M03 2005M08 2006M01 2006M06 2006M11 2007M04 2007M09 2008M02 2008M07 2008M12 2009M05 2009M10 2010M03 2010M08 2005=100 Stronger currencies, for now 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Source: World Bank s Global Economic Monitor.
What to do? Avoid over-appreciation as part of the countercyclical response as opposed to undervaluation as a development tool. Arguments for smoothing-out exchange rates: Portfolio capital has never applied for permanent residence QE2 in developed countries is not sustainable in the medium term Current accounts are expected to deteriorate in LAC Ultimately, reasonably priced currencies and limited external deficits are the best protection against procyclical flows
What to do? Save for the rainy days The region saved in the early 2000s to gain reputation, and spend during the crisis: Will it unwind now that reputation has been built? Reserves as a form of countercyclical saving Sterilized interventions generate quasi fiscal losses but the reversion of the exchange rate during a dollar squeeze recoups valuation losses... and lower spreads and investment of reserves in longer-term, higher yielding instruments should reduce carrying costs.
Outline 1. Assessing the Recovery 2. Common Threads 3. Country Vignettes Brazil: Growing tensions Argentina: Exhausting margins Venezuela: Recession or implosion? 4. Class Rankings
Brazil s policy imperatives 1. Macroeconomic stability 2. Social progress (expansion of the middle class) 3. Active industrial policies (e.g., BNDES) Is this sustainable? Taxes are already high Low hanging social fruit already collected Development banks will begin to deal with NPLs Public investment is extremely low
Gini coefficient Brazil: reduction in inequality is noteworthy. 0.64 0.634 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.601 0.595 0.589 0.595 0.581 0.615 0.596 0.594 0.588 0.587 0.599 0.612 0.602 0.580 0.600 0.600 0.599 0.598 0.592 0.593 0.587 0.581 0.57 0.569 0.566 0.56 0.55 0.559 0.552 0.54 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year Source: Barros, R., de Carvalho, M., Franco, S., and Mendonça, R. (2010).
% GDP..and so is the very low public investment Brazil Public Private Source: J.R. Afonso (2010) "O Nó dos Investimentos Públicos no Brasil based on data from the IMF s WEO.
Brazil s low non-inflationary growth: what to do? High real interest rates Subsidies to long-term financing (BNDES) Weak monetary transmission High interest rates. Low public (and corporate) investment. Alternative equilibrium Redirect BNDES resources to infrastructure Increase potential growth and create room for lower real interest rates.
% GDP % GDP Argentina: Agony of the twin surpluses Primary fiscal surplus (% GDP) Current account and trade balance Note: Adjusted primary surplus excludes from the offi cial figures the central bank s quasi fiscal surplus, FGS profits and SDR issuance. Consolidated adds to the official figures the contributions to the social security system allocated to private pension funds prior to the 2008 renationalization. Source: Ministry of Economics, Central Bank of Argentina and INDEC.
Argentina s inflationary growth: what to expect? Low real interest rates (+ lack of investment instruments) Real estate and durables consumption boom Expansionary fiscal spending (+ wage indexation) Growing (and latent) inflation No policy change until the end-2011 election Political dilemmas Who will switch to a non-inflationary slower growth path? How much time can a renewed access to capital markets buy for a smooth transition to sustainable growth? Binomial scenario Reelection: Smooth ride into a slow descent New administration: Near term risks and significant upsides
Mar-00 Jul-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 U.S. current dollars Venezuela: chasing capital out 20000 15000 10000 5000 0-5000 -10000-15000 -20000 Official Reserves FDI Portfolio Current Account Capital Account +Financial Account Source: International Monetary Fund s International Financial Statistics.
Growth (%) Venezuela: Recession or implosion? 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 2007 (*) 2008 (*) 2009 (*) 2010 (*) Private consumption (yoy growth %) Total investment (yoy growth %) Exports (yoy growth %) Source: Banco Central de Venezuela.
What s next in Venezuela? Radicalization vs. Moderation: Past experience suggests that Chavez is more dogmatic than pragmatic, so hard-line seems more likely. This means more nationalizations (which now are confiscations) and interference in key markets and sectors. A currency depreciation seems unavoidable to provide government additional fiscal firepower. Private sector will not react positively. Optimism regarding 2012 elections, tamed by tumultuous uncertainty in the next two years.
Regional repercussions Venezuela s economy will not recover, affecting growth prospects in Colombia. Moderate fiscal and monetary unwinding in Colombia, relative to Chile and Peru. Additional pressures from the private sector in Colombia for policies that restrain the appreciation of the currency. Problems in Venezuela will affect Petrocaribe s support to Central American and Caribbean countries, exacerbating problems in many of them, including Cuba.
Outline 1. Assessing the Recovery 2. Common Threads 3. Country vignettes Brazil: Growing tensions Argentina: Exhausting margins Venezuela: Recession or implosion? 4. Class rankings
A way to measure progress towards development Variables used in the rankings: Real GDP growth Inflation, average CPI (%) Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance (%GDP) Net external debt (%GDP) Net external financing needs/car (%) Public sector external debt (%GDP) Emerging market bond spreads (bp) Gini coefficient (%) Human development index Composite world governance indicator Stable Growth Policy Track Record Financial vulnerabilities Development factors
Vietnam China Egypt India Indonesia Philippines Poland Korea South Africa Malaysia Developed (avg) Thailand Peru Brazil Chile Singapore Bulgaria Israel Taiwan Russia Czech Republic Colombia Romania Ecuador Hungary Lithuania Estonia Mexico Ukraine Turkey Latvia Argentina Uruguay Venezuela Taiwan Singapore Developed (avg) Malaysia China Korea Peru Thailand Israel Czech Republic Chile Lithuania Poland Estonia Philippines India Colombia South Africa Hungary Bulgaria Latvia Brazil Mexico Egypt Uruguay Vietnam Indonesia Argentina Ukraine Venezuela Romania Russia Turkey Ecuador Graduation scorecard: Core program Risk adjusted GDP Risk adjusted CPI 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Notes: Risk adjusted GDP is constructed as the mean of the real GDP growth (1999-2009)/standard deviation real GDP growth (1999-2009); Risk adjusted CPI is constructed as the mean of the CPI inflation rate (1999-2009)/standard deviation of the CPI inflation rate (1999-2009) Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit and IMF World Economic Outlook Data Base, April 2010.
Developed (avg) Russia Bulgaria Chile Brazil Argentina Colombia Peru Turkey Israel Estonia Mexico Taiwan Philippines Singapore Uruguay Poland South Africa Indonesia Thailand Hungary Korea Ukraine Lithuania China Latvia Egypt Vietnam Romania Czech Republic India Ecuador Malaysia Venezuela Singapore Chile Estonia Czech Republic Hungary Taiwan Korea Lithuania Uruguay Latvia Poland Israel Malaysia Bulgaria Romania Brazil Turkey Mexico India Argentina Thailand Peru Colombia Ukraine China Philippines Indonesia Egypt Vietnam Russia Ecuador Venezuela South Africa Graduation scorecard: the hard sciences Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance (%GDP) World Governance Indicators 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 Notes: Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance estimated as the intercept from a regression of the primary surplus on cyclical output, where the latter is obtained from the log-linear de-trending of real GDP. The Economist Intelligence Unit and Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi (2009). Governance Matters VIII
Singapore Taiwan Chile China Korea Israel Brazil Malaysia Poland Thailand Peru Vietnam Egypt India Bulgaria Czech Republic Mexico Indonesia Uruguay Estonia Philippines Colombia Argentina Hungary Russia South Africa Turkey Lithuania Ukraine Romania Latvia Ecuador Venezuela Graduation scorecard: Final report 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Sources: The Economist Intelligence Unit; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2010; Bank of International Settlements; Moody's; World Bank Global Economic Monitor and World Development Indicators; Human Development Report 2009; Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., Mastruzzi, M. (2009) Governance Matters VIII.
BROOKINGS LATIN- AMERICA ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES Mauricio Cárdenas and Eduardo Levy-Yeyati