Chart Collection for Morning Briefing August, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
3 1 Figure 1. S&P & RECESSIONS (ratio scale) Jul 3 1 1933 199 19 191 17 13 9 1 1997 1993 199 19 191 1977 1973 199 19 191 197 193 199 19 191 1937 1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3 Figure. T PT PT P T PT PT PT PT PT PT PT P T PTP T PT PT P T Jul 3 1 S&P BULL & BEAR MARKETS & THE BUSINESS CYCLE (monthly, ratio scale) 1 1 9 33 37 1 9 3 7 1 9 73 77 1 9 93 97 1 9 13 17 1 Note: Shaded green areas denote S&P bull markets, while red areas are bear market declines of % or more. Business cycle peaks (P) and troughs (T) according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page 3 / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 1 Figure 3. COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS* (1=, sa, ratio scale) Jul 1 1 9 9 7 33 Months /1-11/3 Months 1/-/13 7 3 Months 11/73-7/7 Months /1-9/3 3 Months 7/9-/9 3 19 Months /9-/71 3 3 Months /71-11/73 1 Months 7/7-/1 Months 9/3-7/9 Months /9-/1 Months 11/3-1/ 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 * Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries. Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.. 3.. Figure. S&P REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE* (dollars, quarterly, ratio scale). 3.. 1. 1.. 3 7 7 9 9. * Q- not shown because of large negative value. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 3 Figure. S&P REVENUES PER SHARE (dollars, quarterly) 3 3 3 3 Latest (33.1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 1 Figure. S&P REVENUES PER SHARE (yearly percent change) - - - - Latest (.3) - - - - 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 - - Page / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Figure 7. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (dollars, quarterly) 3 3 3 Latest (.9) 3 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 7 3 - - -3 - - Figure. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data)* (yearly percent change) Latest (.) 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 7 3 - - -3 - - * Due to extreme values, Q- s -.% is capped at -% and Q-9 s +19.9% is capped at %. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 3 Figure 9. S&P Revenues Per Share INDUSTRIALS 1 9 7 13 1 9 7 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 3 7 3 1 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 CONSUMER STAPLES 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 MATERIALS 7 3 17 1 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 ENERGY 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 REAL ESTATE 9 7 7 7 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 FINANCIALS 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 3 3 3 Includes Real Estate through -1 13 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 HEALTH CARE 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 UTILITIES 7 3 3 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 Page 7 / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3-1 9 Figure. S&P Operating Earnings Per Share 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIALS 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1 3-3 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 CONSUMER STAPLES 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 MATERIALS - - - - - 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 ENERGY 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 FINANCIALS 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 REAL ESTATE 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES - 3 1-1 - - - Includes Real Estate through -1 - - 1 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 HEALTH CARE 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19 UTILITIES 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 17 1 19-3 1-1 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 1 Figure 11. S&P Operating Profit Margin* (trailing -quarter, %) INDUSTRIALS 1 1 1 S&P (.9) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P Sectors Operating Profit Margins (7.) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 CONSUMER STAPLES (9.7) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (.1) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 MATERIALS 1 1 - (7.) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 ENERGY (.) (.1) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 REAL ESTATE (1.9) 3 - - - - 1 1 1 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 FINANCIALS Includes Real Estate through -1 (1.7) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 HEALTH CARE (.7) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (11.) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 UTILITIES (1.) 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 1 1 1 1 * Operating margin in percent and based on trailing -quarter EPS and sales. Page 9 / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 1 Figure 1. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (1=, sa, ratio scale) Jul 1 1 9 9 7 7 3 LEI CEI 3 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board. Figure 13. REAL GDP & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) CEI (.) Real GDP (.) Jul - - - 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Conference Board. Page / August, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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