Global Index Briefing: Hong Kong MSCI October 17, Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Hong Kong MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Valuation 4 Revenue & Earnings Growth 5 October 17, / Global Index Briefing: Hong Kong MSCI www.
21500 500 Figure 1. HONG KONG MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (ratio scale) Stock Price Index 21500 500 15500 /17 15500 12500 12500 9500 9500 6500 6500 3500 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 0-day moving average. Source: MSCI. 3500 27000 23000 19000 15000 Figure 2. HONG KONG MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Hong Kong MSCI Index /17/ Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /04/ x x15 27000 23000 19000 15000 100 x 100 7000 7000 3000 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 3000 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 05, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / October 17, / Global Index Briefing: Hong Kong MSCI www.
Earnings 1500 1300 Figure 3. HONG KONG MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 1500 1300 10 19 /4 10 900 900 700 700 500 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 500 300 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 300 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Figure 4. HONG KONG MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 0 Sep 0 - - - - -30-40 NERI Jul 3.09 Aug 0.36 Sep -1.32 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19-30 -40 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / October 17, / Global Index Briefing: Hong Kong MSCI www.
7800 6800 Figure 5. HONG KONG MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 19 /4 7800 6800 5800 5800 4800 4800 3800 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 3800 2800 2800 00 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 00 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. 24 Figure 6. HONG KONG MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 24 22 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (17.1) 22 /4 16 19 16 14 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 14 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / October 17, / Global Index Briefing: Hong Kong MSCI www.
25 Figure 7. HONG KONG MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Valuation 25 Forward P/E (13.8) 15 /4 15 5 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 5 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 05, weekly thereafter. 1.75 Figure 8. HONG KONG MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION* 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.25 Relative P/E (0.93) 1.25 1.00 /4 1.00.75.75.50.50.25 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19.25 * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December 05, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / October 17, / Global Index Briefing: Hong Kong MSCI www.
30 Figure 9. HONG KONG MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) Revenue & Earnings Growth LTEG* (6.6) STEG* (.7) STRG* (.7) 30 /4 0 0 - - - - -30 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. -30 Page 5 / October 17, / Global Index Briefing: Hong Kong MSCI www.
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