Anchorage s Economic Climate And Forecast Girdwood! January 25th, 2016 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist
Anchorage s Past Trends, A Roadmap To The Future? 60,000 40,000 Number of Jobs 1989-2008, 20 year of growth ends Lost 900 jobs in 2009 Fell in 2016 20,000 1993 full recovery record annual count 00,000 Oil Revenue Party Alaska s Great Recession 80,000 1980 1990 2000 *prelimi 2010 2016*
Employment Growth Gone In Anchorage In 2016 1.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% -0.1% -2.3% *Preliminary 2010 2011 2012 2013 Series1 2015 2016*
This Is How Things Are Shaping Up In Anchorage In 2016* Number of Jobs Gained and Lost in 2016 Total -3600 Care 700 ment 100 Hosp. 0 ries1 PBS -1600-300 Re ction d Gas -900-700 ate G -400 *Preliminary
A word about recessions There are different definitions of recession, but generally it means a significant decline in economic activity that spreads across the economy.
National recessions since the 70s Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Bureau of Economic Research
Alaska recessions since the 70s
How long do they last? Eight quarters Nine quarters Three quarters
How deep are they? Losses of 15,000+ Several quarters of 10,000+ losses Modest losses (around 3,000 jobs)
How are things different than the 80s?! Our population is older and has been here longer! Our pre-recession economy was nowhere near as hot, especially construction and banking sectors! We have significantly larger savings! Oil production on declining trend
Unemployment Remains Relatively Low In Anchorage 11 Unemployment rate 3/4 U. 1/2 1/4 Anchorage 5.2% 4. 2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Prudhoe Bay Employment Fell Fast And Hard-- More Than A Third Are Anchorage Residents historic high 13,236 12,843 13,48513,434 12,51712,468 12,32512,37812,330 11,964 12,10612,035 11,74111,764 11,898 10,816 lowest level since 10,369 10,150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2015 2016
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
Previous Oil And Gas Employment Losses In AK -800-2,200-1,400-800 2,400-9.0% -9.0% -15.0% -21.0% *preliminary -21.0% 1985-1987 1991-1997 1998-1999 2001-2003 2015-2016*
Anchorage Federal Civilian Employment Making A Comeback 9,783 9,304 9,517 9,117 8,721 8,437 8,500 8,800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* *preliminary
Anchorage Uniformed Military Numbers 12,68812,78712,699 11,590 11,94212,113 11,300 10,967 12,295 11,643 10,503 20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Rebound In Number of Visitors Should Continue-Cruiseship Numbers Expect To Surpass Previous Record in 2008 Anchorage bed tax collections, $millions $22.3 $21.3 $20.4 $19.6 $18.3 $22.7 $23.2 $25.2 $26.2 $25.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* *estimate based on first 11 months of actual data
State Government Has Fallen Some State government employment, Anchorage 2014-2016 -400-400 -500-500 -600-600 -700-700 -800-800
No Housing Bubble Developing Here Took Past 20 Years To Build The Same Number Of Homes It Took Between 1980-1985 Number of residential building permits issued in Anchorage 1,725 1,372 777 768 761 528 565 481 461 532 526 341 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Municipality of Anchorage
1200 Foreclosures, So Far There Is Little Sign Of Much Change Foreclosures In Anchorage 900 600 300 0 Source: Alaska 1980 Department of 1995 2010 2016 Natural
Home Sales In Anchorage Did Not Change Much 4,018 Home sales, Anchorage 3,936 2015 2016
A Pretty Attractive Income Picture Ranking State Median Household Income-2015 Anchorage $78,662 Mat-Su $76,424 1 Maryland $75,847 2 Hawaii $73,486 3 Alaska $73,355 4 New Jersey $72,222 5 Connecticut $71,346 U.S. $55,755
Anchorage s Per Capita Advantage Compared To The Nation s Anchorage s per capita income as a percent of the U.S. 140 130 120 110 100 1990 2000 2010
Anchorage s Population Increased In 2016! (299,037 Is The Number) 2882 Annual net gains in Anchorage s population 2488 2550 323 The details. There were 4,572 births minus 1,673 deaths plus net migration of -2,576 = 323. -736-1507
More Folks Have Been Leaving Anchorage Than Moving Here For A While Net-migration--Anchorage -435-627 -608-2519 -3934-4512
Girdwood s Population, Not Much Change Here 2,704 2,696 2,712 2,709 2,713 2,662 2,570
My Forecast Record And What Really Happened 1.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.1% 201-0.5% -0.9% Reality *preliminary -2.3%
Our 2017 employment forecast! Another year of job loss, but some important differences between 2016 and 2017:! More job loss in oil and gas, but about half as much as 2016 Also reduced losses in construction and professional and business services Bigger losses in retail trade, restaurants, banks (downstream effects of oil and state government declines) Similar losses in state government and small losses in local government Health care only sector forecasted to grow, and not by much
Employment In Anchorage In 2017 Is Forecast For Second Year Of Losses- 1.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 2014 Forecas -0.1% *Preliminar -2.3% -1.8%
Employment In Anchorage In 2017 Is Forecast For Second Year Of Losses 2,700 3,400 100 100-400 1,000 2014 Forecas *Preliminar -2,800
Where Jobs Are Forecast to Come From And Disappear From in 2017 800 Forecasted job gains and losses in 2017 600-400 -600-400 -500-300 100 Leisure and Professional & Business Constructi Oil and -400
Not Going To Bail Out The Economy Some Numbers Lots of Haze Here Numbers of Customers Number of Tons 103,123 annually-72,426 monthly 17.8 tons, 4 tons retail Number of Direct Jobs 700 to 1,400 Number of Indirect Jobs 300 to 600 Total Number of Jobs 1,000 to 2,000 Total Value Tax Revenues Retail $55.6 million $7 million
Anchorage Pickup Index Following Employment? Number of pick-up registrations in Anchorage,000,000,000,000,000 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 16 13,232 snow machines in 2016--peaked in 2007 at 16,878 2015=$258 million, yes million in pull tabs and $71 million in bingo