Result Update Mahanagar Gas Accumulate Volume Traction with Profitability Mahanagar Gas (MGL) numbers has outperformed on volume as well as profitability parameters. Volume traction was primarily driven by higher CNG volumes. This was due to sharp addition of Auto Rickshaws to the tune of 16,000 as compared to 2,800 in. We believe that this volume should stay, however, the quantum of volume growth in coming quarters should come to high single digits. Spreads should sustain / improve marginally due to timely price taken to counter increase in gas cost and currency depreciation. We have upgraded our estimates to capture higher volumes of. Concerns on promoter stake sell has weighed on valuations, however, we believe that this has diluted and will go away completely with passage of time. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation with a DCF based target price of ` 1,093. Volume Growth trajectory looking strong CNG volumes at 2.12 mmscmd grew 12.6% YoY due to strong auto rickshaw conversions and private CNG vehicle additions in the quarter. There was an addition of 16,000 auto rickshaw as compared to 2,800 in. We believe that future CNG growth would be driven by private vehicle conversion to CNG. On PNG front, volumes increased 10% YoY to 0.75 mmscmd, marginally higher than our estimate. On a combined basis, we feel that future volume trajectory will be in high single digits. Margin outlook look steady MGL has always demonstrated enough pricing power to maintain its spreads. Last six months have impacted the sector through increase in raw material cost as well as INR deprecation. However, MGL took 2 price hikes in the last quarter to negate this impact. We believe that spread should sustain / improve marginally from levels. Exploring New Areas and penetrating existing areas MGL has started to expand in its existing areas as well as applied for 3 new areas in the latest bidding round. Expansion in new areas is critical as existing area of operation will offer limited volume growth. With high potential in Raigad (Mumbai extension), MGL execution will be the key to gain volumes from these areas. Execution has been a concern in the past, however, we believe that management is keen to turn around this issue. Result (` Mn) Particulars YoY(%) QoQ (%) Net Sales 6,193 5,309 16.7 5,870 5.5 Expenditure 4,084 3,280 24.5 4,108 (0.6) Other Expenditure 986 793 24.3 1,033 (4.6) Operating Profit 2,109 2,029 4.0 1,762 19.7 Other Income 153 1 25.8 174 (.6) Interest 1 0.1 1 Depreciation 295 246 19.8 339 (13.1) PBT 1,967 1,904 3.3 1,595.3 Tax 684 661 3.4 548 24.9 Net Profit 1,283 1,243 3.2 1,048.5 EPS (in `) 13.0 12.6-10.6 - Gross Margin (in %) 52.7 56.4-50.4 - OPM (%) 34.1 38.2-30.0 - NPM (%) 20.7.4-17.8 - Tax Rate (in %) 34.8 34.7-34.3 - CMP ` 967 Target / Upside ` 1,093/13% BSE Sensex 37,440 NSE Nifty,325 Scrip Details Equity / FV ` 988 mn/` 10/- Market Cap ` 96 bn USD 1.5 bn 52-week High/Low ` 1,345/774 Avg. Volume (no) 50,3,798 NSE Symbol Bloomberg Code MGL MAHGL IN Shareholding Pattern June 18 (%) Promoters 56.5 MF/Banks/FIs 7.7 FIIs 13.3 Public / Others.5 Valuation (x) FY18E FY19E FY20E P/E 20.0 16.9 14.8 EV/EBITDA 12.1 10.5 9.0 ROE.8.8 24.3 ROCE 28.8 30.3 31.1 Estimates (` mn) FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Sales,330 26,196 29,531 EBITDA 7,801 8,896 10,255 PAT 4,779 5,641 6,471 EPS 48.4 57.1 65.5 VP - Research: Priyank Chandra Tel: +91 4096 9737 E-mail: priyank@dolatcapital.com Analyst: Nidhi Doshi Tel: +91 4096 9795 E-mail: nidhid@dolatcapital.com August 03, 2018
Volume Data Volume Data YoY(%) QoQ (%) FY18 CNG (in MMSCM) 193.08 171.48 12.6 184.87 4.4 724.37 PNG- Domestic (in MMSCM) 32.89 29.43.8 31.72 3.7 124.25 PNG - Industrial/Commercial (in MMSCM) 35.45 32.63 8.6 35.16 0.8 137.48 PNG- Total (in MMSCM) 68.34 62.06 10.1 66.88 2.2 261.73 Total Volume (in MMSCM) 261.4 3.5.9 251.8 3.8 986.1 Total Volume (MMSCMD) 2.87 2.6.9 2.80 2.7 2.7 CNG Net Sales Value (`. Mn) 4,162 3,666.7 13.5 3,976 4.7 15,368 PNG Sales Value (`. Mn) 1,987 1,603.1.9 1,848 7.5 6,809 Total Sales Value (`. Mn) 6,149 5,270 16.7 5,824 5.6,177 CNG Net Realization Value (` / SCM) 21.6 21.4 0.8 21.5 0.2 21.2 Spread Earned (` / SCM) 10.3.5 (9.9) 9.9 4.2 10.8 PNG Realization Value (` / SCM) 29.1 25.8 12.6 27.6 5.2 26.0 Spread Earned (` / SCM) 17.9 15.9 12.2 16.1.3 15.6 Gas Cost (` / SCM).2 9.9 13.2.6 (3.2) 10.4 Blended Realization (` / SCM).5.6 4.2.1 1.7.5 Blended Spread (` / SCM) 12.3 12.7 (2.8).6 6.5 12.1 EBIDTA Spread (` / SCM) 8.1 8.7 (7.1) 7.0 15.3 7.9 Estimate Change New Old New Old FY 19E FY 19E Est. Change % FY 20E FY 20E Est. Change % Revenue 25,730 25,4 1.25 29,009 28,515 1.73 EBITDA 8,710 8,599 1.29 9,824 9,660 1.70 PAT 5,519 5,446 1.33 6,189 6,082 1.77 EPS 55.9 55.1 1.45 62.7 61.6 1.79 Volumes (mmscmd) 2.95 2.91 1.27 3.18 3.13 1.74 Source: Company, DAR Valuation MGL is an excellent cash annuity model with decent dividend yield. Promoter offloading some stake has weighed down on the valuations, however, we feel that this should go away with passage of time and strong operational performance. With volume outlook looking better than past and spreads likely to sustain / improve, we believe that MGL should revert to its earlier valuation levels. Reiterate our Accumulate recommendation with a target price of ` 1,093. August 03, 2018 2
Key Highlights Revenue increased by 5.5% on a sequential basis and by 16.7% on a YoY basis to `. 6,193 mn. Raw Material cost was flat on a sequential basis and increased by 26.7% on a YoY basis to ` 2,929 mn. Employee cost grew on a sequential basis by 4.8% and decreased by 3.3% on a YoY basis to ` 169 mn. Other expenditure decreased by 4.6% on a sequential basis and increased by 24.3% on a YoY basis to ` 986 mn. MGL made an operating profit ` 2,109 mn in as compared to an operating profit of ` 2,029 mn in which was a growth of 4%. Depreciation decreased by 13.1% on a sequential basis and increased by 19.8% on a YoY basis to ` 295 mn. Other income decreased by.6% on a sequential basis and increased by 25.8% on a YoY basis to `. 153 mn. MGL made a net profit of `. 1,283 mn in as compared to a net profit of `. 1,243 mn in registering a growth of 3.2% on a YoY basis. Volume growth in CNG segment was at 12.6% and PNG segment witnessed a growth of 10.1% on YoY basis. Overall volumes increased by.9% on a YoY basis to 2.87 MMSCMD for this quarter. Gross spread in the CNG segment was at `. 10.3 per SCM registering a degrowth of 9.9% on a YoY basis. Gross spread in the PNG segment increased by 12.2% to `. 17.9 per SCM on a YoY basis. Gross spread on a blended basis was at ` 12.3 per SCM and EBIDTA spread was at ` 8.1 per SCM. Concall KTA s During, MGL connected more than 20,000 domestic households and they have added over 57 industrial and commercial consumers and so they have over 3,650 industrial and commercial customers. MGL is now operating 0 CNG stations supplying CNG to more than 630,000 vehicles, and their Steel and PE pipeline network stands at 5,088 kms. Connectivity has been established in Raigad to supply gas to about 3,000 domestic PNG consumers in Uran. 5 CNG stations are currently operational in Raigad. In the 9 th PNGRB auction, MGL has put in its bid for 3 GA s. As on 1st of April 2018, APM gas price was revised by GOI, from $2.69 per MMBTU to $3.06 per MMBTU on GCV basis. This compared to, gas cost has increased from $2.48 per MMBTU to $3.06 per MMBTU on GCV basis. Average spot gas price has also increased by about $2.10 per MMBTU on GCV basis as compared to. CNG sales price and domestic sales price were revised on April 3rd 2018 from `. 42.63/kg to `. 44./kg for CNG and from `. 25.69/scm to `. 26.87/scm in case of domestic PNG due to increase in APM gas price. August 03, 2018 3
Prices were further increased on 8th of June 2018 from `. 44./kg to `. 46.17/kg in case of CNG and from `. 26.87/scm to `.27.25/scm in case of domestic PNG, mainly on account of increase in OMC trading margin, dollar appreciation against rupee, and increase in CNG dispensing charges. In, MGL has seen a growth of.9% in overall sales volume over. CNG sales volume grew by 12.6%, domestic sales volume grew by.7%, while the industrial and commercial sector sales grew by 8.6%. Overall, the PNG volumes grew by 10.1%. For commercial customers for Q1 the price rise was `. 35.63/SCM whereas in it was `. 34.14. For industrial customer in the price was `. 24.34, whereas for, it was `. 31.. Gross margin has declined to 52.4% as compared to 56.2% in. Gross margin is higher in value terms in despite an increase in APM gas price and adverse exchange rate because of higher volumes in CNG and PNG and better price realization in industrial and commercial customer category. In, OMC trade margin was revised with effect from January 2015 and `. 12.9 crore has been accounted for during the current quarter. Volume potential for the GA s in which MGL has bidded in 9 th Auction would be between 0.8 to 1 MMSCMD each. CNG volumes in has seen a large jump in volumes due to addition or conversion of auto-rickshaw category. In auto-rickshaw addition was approx 16,000 whereas in was 2,800. In the priority sector the gas cost has gone up, whereas in industrial and commercial sector, RLNG is used. RLNG weighted average price was approximately $ plus in, which has dropped down to around $8.75 per MMBTU in. Spot LNG has fallen. MGL expects to deliver 6% CAGR volumes on 5 year basis. Contribution of PMT gas in total gas mix in is.2% as against 26.1% in and they expect to reduce further going ahead. CNG sales in is `.13.54 cr kg vs `. 12.37cr kg which is an increase of 9.5%. Industrial volumes were 0.2 mmscmd vs 0.195 mmscmd in and commercial volumes were 0.179 mmscmd vs 0.164 mmscmd in. There are 6,000 and 7,000 vehicles getting added every month. Auto conversions in is,000 plus. By 2020, MGL expect the volumes from Raigad GA between 1 and 1.5 lakh SCMD. In FY19 it can be 30,000-40,000 SCMD. August 03, 2018 4
CNG Realization Value (` / SCM) CNG Spread (` / SCM) 24 21 21 20 20 19.1.4 21.621.7 21.1 21.4 21.621.521.6 20.4 20.4 20.7 20.4 12 10 9 8 7 6 8.3 7.8 8.2 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.1 9.7.5 10.910.9 9.9 10.3 PNG Realization (` / SCM) PNG Spread (` / SCM) 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 27.1 26.626.2 24.4.1.2.7 25.825.8 24.0 27.6 26.5 29.1 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 13.4 12.8 12.4 12.0.9 12.3.9 14.8 15.9 14.5 15.8 16.1 17.9 25 24 24 21 21 20 20 Blended Realization (` / SCM) 24.2.5.8.9.1.5.4.6.1 21.7 21.1 21.3 21.3 13 13 12 10 9 8 9.4 Blended Spread (` / SCM) 9.9 10.310.4.0.0 9.4 8.9 12.7.8 12.2.6 12.3 August 03, 2018 5
16 15 14 13 12 10 9 14.8 14.6 Gas Cost (` / SCM) 13.4 12.5 10.8.3.1.6.2 10.3 10.7 9.9 9.5 10 9 8 7 6 5 6.0 EBIDTA Spread (` / SCM) 8.7 8.1 8.0 6.7 6.8 7.1 6.9 5.7 6.0 5.2 7.0 8.1 August 03, 2018 6
Income Statement (` mn) Particulars Mar17 Mar18 Mar19E Mar20E Net Sales 20,176,177 26,164 29,499 Other Operational income 142 153 32 32 Total Income 20,340,330 26,196 29,531 Total Expenditure 13,898 14,529 17,300 19,276 Raw Material 10,184 10,292 12,721 14,3 Employee Expenses 600 670 785 885 Other Expenses 3,4 3,568 3,794 4,277 Other Income 527 577 610 620 EBIDTA (Excl. OI) 6,442 7,801 8,896 10,255 EBIDTA (Incl. OI) 6,968 8,378 9,506 10,875 Interest 10 1 2 2 Depreciation 951 1,2 892 993 PBT & EO Items 6,007 7,265 8,612 9,880 Profit Before Tax 6,007 7,265 8,612 9,880 Tax 2,072 2,486 2,971 3,409 Net Profit 3,934 4,779 5,641 6,471 Balance Sheet (` mn) Particulars Mar17 Mar18 Mar19E Mar20E Sources of Funds Equity Capital 988 988 988 988 Other Reserves 17,413 20,012,7 25,686 Net Worth 18,400 21,000,710 26,674 Secured Loans 27 0 0 0 Unsecured Loans 3,878 4,328 4,778 5,8 Loan Funds 3,905 4,328 4,778 5,8 Deferred Tax Liability 1,376 1,445 1,517 1,593 Total Capital Employed,682 26,773 30,005 33,495 Applications of Funds Gross Block 14,817 17,317 19,817,067 Less: Accumulated Dep. 1,770 2,882 3,774 4,767 Net Block 13,048 14,436 16,044 17,301 Capital Work in Progress 4,5 1,559 1,585 1,545 Investments 4,667 4,760 4,855 4,952 Current Assets, Loans & Advances Inventories 8 213 251 283 Sundry Debtors 949 972 1,147 1,293 Cash and Bank Balance 1,481 5,420 6,885 8,886 Loans and Advances 1,156 1,329 1,528 1,757 Other Current Assets 590 619 650 683 sub total 4,413 8,553 10,461 12,902 Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions Current Liabilities 2,273 2,275 2,707 2,996 Provisions 288 259 3 210 sub total 2,561 2,534 2,940 3,205 Net Current Assets 1,852 6,019 7,521 9,697 Total Assets,682 26,773 30,005 33,495 E Estimates Cash Flow (` mn) Particulars Mar17 Mar18 Mar19E Mar20E Profit before tax 6,007 7,265 8,612 9,880 Depreciation & w.o. 951 1,2 892 993 Net Interest Exp (132) 1 2 2 Direct taxes paid (1,862) (2,486) (2,971) (3,409) Chg. in Working Capital 724 (8) (37) (175) Other (2) 718 (A) CF from Opt. Activities 5,467 6,382 6,520 7,313 Capex (2,569) 57 (2,527) (2,209) Free Cash Flow 2,898 6,439 3,993 5,104 Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (674) (93) (95) (97) Other 465 768 0 4 (B) CF from Inv. Activities (2,777) 731 (2,6) (2,302) Inc./(Dec.) in Debt (18) 4 450 450 Interest exp net (3) (1) (2) (2) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (2,816) (2,190) (2,881) (3,457) (C) CF from Financing (2,838) (1,768) (2,433) (3,009) Net Change in Cash (148) 5,346 1,465 2,002 Opening Cash & Cash Equ. 2 74 5,420 6,885 Closing Cash & Cash Equi. 74 5,420 6,885 8,886 Important Ratios Particulars Mar17 Mar18 Mar19E Mar20E (A) Measures of Performance (%) EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 31.7 34.9 34.0 34.7 Tax/PBT 34.5 34.2 34.5 34.5 Net Profit Margin 19.3 21.4 21.3 21.7 (B) As Percentage of Net Sales Excise Duty % of G` Sales 9.2 9.0 9.5 9.5 Raw Material 50.5 46.4 48.6 47.8 Employee Expenses 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Other Expenses 15.4 16.1 14.5 14.5 (C) Measures of Financial Status Debt/Equity (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Interest Coverage (x) 682.4 9,308.8 4,752.9 5,437.5 Average Cost of Debt (%) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debtors Period (days) 17.2 16.0 16.0 16.0 Closing stock (days) 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 84.9 104.3 104.3 104.3 Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 WC Turnover (x) 10.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 Non-Cash WC (` Mn) 371 599 636 8 (D) Measures of Investment EPS (`) 39.8 48.4 57.1 65.5 CEPS (`) 49.5 59.6 66.1 75.6 DPS (`) 19.0 19.0 25.0 30.0 Dividend Payout (%) 47.7 39.3 43.8 45.8 Profit Ploughback (%) 52.3 60.7 56.2 54.2 Book Value (`) 186.3 212.6 240.0 270.0 RoANW (%) 21.4.8.8 24.3 RoACE (%) 26.5 28.8 30.3 31.1 RoAIC (%) 28.5 33.4 38.7 41.4 (E) Valuation Ratios CMP (`) 967 967 967 967 P/E (x) 24.3 20.0 16.9 14.8 Market Cap. (` Mn.) 95,518 95,517 95,517 95,517 MCap/ Sales (x) 4.7 4.3 3.7 3.2 EV (` Mn.) 97,942 94,426 93,4 91,859 EV/Sales (x) 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.1 EV/EBDITA (x) 15.2 12.1 10.5 9.0 P/BV (x) 5.2 4.5 4.0 3.6 FCF Yield (%) 4.0 8.1 5.6 6.8 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.1 E Estimates August 03, 2018 7
DART RATING MATRIX Total Return Expectation (12 Months) Buy > 20% Accumulate 10 to 20% Reduce 0 to 10% Sell < 0% Rating and Target Price History 1250 50 Rating TP (`) Price (`)* Feb-18 Accumulate 1,200 1,046 1050 950 850 750 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 * As on Recommended Date MGL Target DART Team Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9747 Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities amit@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9745 CONTACT DETAILS Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales dineshb@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9709 Kartik Sadagopan VP - Equity Sales kartiks@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9762 Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales kapil@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9735 Equity Trading Designation E-mail P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading sridhar@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9728 Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading chandrakant@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9707 Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading shirisht@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9702 Kartik Mehta VP - Head Asia Derivatives Sales Trading kartikm@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9715 Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist bhavinm@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9705 Hardik Mehta Sales Trader hardikm@dolatcapital.com +91 4096 9703 Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. 20, Rajabahadur Mansion, 1st Floor, Ambalal Doshi Marg, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001
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