What s agricultural reform got to do with a Ministry of Agriculture? Lunchtime Meeting Series ODI, 25 November 2005 Peter Bazeley peter.b@zeley.com
Context Failure! Dismal have to question the paradigm Insufficient (scope, scale) response to technology institutions policy Concurrent processes of: Aid effectiveness and Policy & institutional reform SIPs, SWAps & PBAs as principal instruments (*) Agriculture - esp. pro-poor agriculture - not really making it in era of PRSPs, budgetary support, etc., Despite rhetoric, money Why not?
Substance and Process Substance Not today Few big things since structural adjustment & liberalisation But (Dorward, Kydd & Poulton): Development Coordination : technical, market & institutional, and policy fixes More politically nuanced Interlocking local, national & international factors Link substance to process
Process Largely still (still!) talking SWAps (in practice) Sector deemed to = a Ministry Boundaries Assumptions Capacity Approaches and instruments effectively = ends in themselves Targets Time horizon (esp. donors) Much ado about financing
Haven t worked Agricultural SWAps ct (?) Health, Education, Predictable reasons In particular, failure to capture: Non-agricultural determinants of agricultural productivity & growth Private sector Impatience: re-starts, re-orientations Process over substance Lowest common denominator Dev t Partners; Political & Admin Capacity; Pace
Determinants of agricultural livelihoods, productivity, growth Frequently fall outside mandate of core agriculture sector ministries
Malawi Mozambique Uganda 1. Security 2. Markets / terms of trade 3. Capital 4. Infrastructure 5. Production technology 6. Land shortage / degradation 7. Weak institutions / policies 8. Irrigation & drainage 9. Business culture 1. Finance 2. Roads 3. Markets 4. Technology 5. Farmer organisation 6. Enabling business environment 1. Technology & information 2. Financial services 3. Markets 4. Rural agric. education 5. Infrastructure 6. Sustainable natural resource utilisation etc.
All these things ultimately determined by policies on (e.g.) Land tenure & administration Subsidies, incentives & taxation Input and market interventions Public investment & services Energy and transport costs Exchange & interest rates Security & justice & contract enforcement Monopolies, monopsonies & corruption
And they somehow need to be configured, balanced and sequenced across sectors for the purposes of achieving a particular outcome (agricultural productivity & growth) in one sector Various attempts
Uganda Plan for the Modernisation of Agriculture Reconfiguring governance of rural sector (Originally, anyway) Led by Ministry of Finance Superimposed with decentralisation
$ Sh Learning for policy formulation Sectoral Non sectoral policy Interpretations and investment forum PMA Rule Book Infra FPED H struct 2 O Agric Rural Law $$ Loc Land Gov $$$ $$$ Districts Sector plans & progs - NAAS - NARO - etc. Agricultural Livelihood RESULTS Production Committees
Zambia Enabling Environment for Business with a Particular Emphasis on Agriculture Capability of the private sector and civil society to demand better policy New owners of knowledge, information and process Management Unit located independently of major stakeholders (govt., private sector, civil society) Public-private trusts
Kenya Strategy for Revitalizing Agriculture Politically-endorsed cross-sectoral strategy 3-5 Ministries But still limited coverage Agriculture Sector Coordination Unit Questions What, Where, Who, How Still no hard cross-sectoral coordination mechanism Work in Progress
Kenya GJLOS Governance, Justice, Law & Order Sector Fresh start at cross-sectoral constraints and reforms Emphasis on novel cross-sectoral coordination mechanism, linked to prioritysetting & allocation of resources via MTEF Political dimensions recognised & internalised New, parallel, non-statutory, institutions
GJLOS MOVING FROM AN INSTITUTIONAL TO SECTOR-WIDE PERSPECTIVE KENYA POLICE Police: Population ratio = 1:10, Reported crime rate: Population = 1:400; 10% of cases dismissed, 36% convicted, 47% awaiting trial PROVINCIAL ADMINISTRATION 10,000 field staff, 11,000 units ADMINISTRATION POLICE 18,000 officers, 11,000 units COMPLAINTS COMMISSION 12 professionals 13,000 pending complaints 2,000 complaints lodged, 1,000 disposed, per annum. PUBLIC TRUSTEE 40 staff, 12 offices, 47,000 accounts, KShs 40 billion paid pa PUBLIC PROSECUTORS 53 counsel, 3,000 cases per annum CIVIL LITIGATORS 37 professionals, 2,500-3,000 cases per annum, 150 disposed JUDICIARY 350 Professionals, 110 Courts, 2,700 Support Staff 293,000 cases filed, 268,000 determined TOTAL PENDING 270,000 (Civil cases 100,000) LEGISLATIVE DRAFTING 12 professionals (3 trained), Current workload 50 laws TREATIES & AGREEMENTS 17 professionals - TREATIES, CONTRACTS REGISTRAR-GENERAL 39 lawyers Adapted/simplified from: GJLOS MDA Strategic Plans, Administrative Data and Internal Reports CHILDREN SERVICES 670 staff, 1 Children s Court NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE 2,200 staff; 6,800 servicepersons 1,500 annual throughput PRISONS Capacity 16,000, Occupancy 50,000, - 48% remand, 39% petty offences, 13% > 3 years, Officer: Prisoner ratio = 1:5, 5 out of 92 prisons for women PROBATION AND AFTER-CARE 250 professionals, 90 stations, Typically, 12,000 probation orders or 40 orders supervised per staff COMMUNITY SERVICE ORDERS 3 full-time staff, use Probation staff 55,769 order in 2004 or ratio of 1 staff per 223 CSOs
GJLOS GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK Inter-Agency Steering Committee (Cabinet-level Committee) Technical Coordination Committee Executive Stakeholder Forum TCC Management Sub-Committee GJLOS-DG (Donor Group) THEMATIC GROUPS Civil Society Forum GJLOS MDAs (Ministries, Departments & Agencies) Private Sector Forum Financial Management Agency (BASKET DONORS ONLY) Programme Coordination Office MoJCA (COORDINATING MINISTRY) Adapted/simplified from: GJLOS Presentation
MTEF Not just a spreadsheet Cross-governmental statement of medium term priorities and actions Point where govt policy is translated into accountable action Meeting of top-down & bottom-up planning But critical elements are above sector ministries Fundamental to contemporary PFM & aid instruments
Source: Adapted from Training for Development Construction of MTEFs Strategic Budget Framework Statement of government objectives & priorities Analysis of cross-cutting issues Macro fiscal framework Analysis of inter sectoral resource allocation issues Sector resource ceilings Happens above sector ministries Sector MTEF strategies Programme resource allocation Identification of new efficiency measures Review of expenditure programmes Resource implications of sector policies Happens within sector ministries
MTEF (cont.) Isn t this above-line stuff what we re trying to achieve? But we all work below the line Agriculture sector generally poorly represented in MTEFs Incremental budgeting Inability to pitch high enough Assumptions about where authority lies Delegation to sector ministries
Ponderings Ability to harness, balance and reconfigure resources and policies across government is what we re lacking Sectoral ministries don t have the necessary cross-sectoral clout Agriculture sector woefully bad at engaging with contemporary policy and financing instruments
Ponderings (2) Capacity to do anything beyond coping? Validity of covering transaction costs of change; of moving from State A to State B Non-statutory, parallel institutions Can we go overboard on ownership if political & top management commitment is already strong?
Ponderings (3) Vision & strategy has to outlive short political and donor cycles In absence of solid evidence Accept that agricultural outcomes will be negotiated outcomes, in highly politicised environment People and instruments for that Political & administrative impatience