FX Week Commodity currencies rally Emerging market currencies, especially commodity currencies were the best performing currencies last week. They took advantage of a quiet week in China and a rebound in risk appetite to post significant gains, with the IDR rising by 9.2% and the USD being the notable casualty. The USD also lost ground because expectations of an end of year rate hike before the end of the year remains low, even though Fed officials continue to warn that a rate hike is still likely. Weekly 11 October 215 China s market holiday allowed risk appetite to return, benefiting commodity prices in particular and by extension commodity currencies. The AUD and gained 4.53% over the week followed by the NZD and the CAD up 3.97% and 1.93% respectively, as oil prices rose by 9.% and copper by 4.%. The limited amount of Chinese economic data was favourable. FX reserves declined by USD43bn in September, less than expected and smaller than the decline of USD94bn in August. Warnings from the IMF about the risks to global growth also lent in favour of global monetary policy remaining accommodative and thus supportive of risk, as did the BoE appearing to back away from its conviction that rate hikes were around the corner, while stimulus hopes in Asia and in the Eurozone also fueled this sentiment. Depressing the USD in the process Tim Fox Chief Economist +971 4 23 78 timothyf@emiratesnbd.com Mohammed Ali Al-Tajir Analyst +971 4 69 35 mohammedtaj@emiratesnbd.com The background of EMFX gains was negative for the USD more broadly, as the EUR and GBP also took advantage of the greenback s vulnerability. USD/JPY on the other and was steady, demonstrating that recovering risk appetite is as much a detriment to the JPY as it is to the USD. The coming week could see more of the same as the data will likely reinforce the FOMC s predilection to hedge its bets. This was the broad message from the FOMC s September minutes, which showed the Committee concerned about global headwinds but ready to tighten monetary policy by the end of the year if economic conditions improve. USD Spot (% Change against USD in last 5 days) EUR 1.27 Aditya Pugalia Analyst +9714 23 782 adityap@emiratesnbd.com GBP CHF.9 1.1 JPY -.28 CAD 1.6 www.emiratesnbdresearch.com AUD NZD 3.97 4.13-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2. 2.5 3. 3.5 4. 4.5 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
With the upcoming US economic data unlikely to provide much evidence of improvement yet however, with CPI expected down and retail and industrial production sales weak, the USD looks likely to continue with this negative bias for the time being. As we said last week an October rate hike was effectively ruled out by the September jobs data, but the risk of a December move is much closer in our opinion. It is worth remembering that most Fed officials appear to believe that the inherent strength of the US economy will be in evidence again before the end of the year, which in most cases is seen as justifying a rate move by then, which effectively means in December. FOMC officials Bullard, Williams, Dudley and Lockhart all appeared to be expecting a rate hike by year-end, while the more dovish Evans and Kocherlakota were seen opposing one. As far as the markets are concerned this is an over representation of tightening risks, which for want of better ideas are coalescing around March as the likeliest date for lift-off. That said, the bond market does not appear entirely convinced by such extended forecasts, with bond yields squeezing higher amidst equity market exuberance and lift-off delay. There will be a partial market and Fed closure on Monday for Columbus Day and Canada is off for Thanksgiving as well. Japan is also out for Health-Sports Day, but rounds of inflation, confidence and production data will be the main focus of the week, while inflation data will also be released by China. EUR/USD upside likely limited In the Eurozone the ECB should keep focus on stimulus potential in their rhetoric, with Eurozone trade and production data for August expected to disappoint in line with already released national data. Another weak German ZEW index in light of the VW scandal is also likely to keep the focus on what the ECB might do next, as well as on the problems caused by an overly strong EUR exchange rate, which should limit the EUR/USD s upside to the 1.15 area. UK inflation data may dampen GBP Markets will also be sensitive to any shortfalls in key inflation and employment reports due in the UK after the dovish MPC minutes last week. The vote was 8-1 in favour of no change, but the minutes noted that inflationary pressures are weaker than previously thought. UK production data last week was firmer than expected at 1.% in August, but trade and construction figures were weaker and also highlighted the unbalanced nature of the UK economy. The GBP is being lifted by broad USD weakness for the time being but this will eventually change and we still see GBP/USD flirting with the lower 1.5 s for longer. Commodity currencies to revert to domestic driver s Having been the strongest currencies last week on account of the turnaround in commodity prices, the focus for the AUD and the NZD this week will be more on domestic forces, with key employment data expected in Australia and CPI inflation data due out in New Zealand. These have the potential to revive expectations of further cuts in interest rates which may help to undo some of the upside momentum in these currencies. Page 2
JPY lacking direction, CNY awaits data The JPY sees little by way of domestic economic data in the coming week, with only consumer confidence, bank loan data and revised industrial production in the offing, none of which is expected to inspire much JPY direction. With China s markets reopened there will, however, be more focus on its data with trade figures expected to show a narrowing in the surplus in September, especially after the 5.5% drop in August exports reinforced fears about China s slowdown. September CPI inflation also completes a week in which inflation will capture the headlines globally, with expectations being for a dip in price pressures again drawing attention to the need for further stimulus steps. INR rallies but still underperforms In common with other EM currencies the INR rallied last week, +1.2% 5d, and has rallied +2.6% over the month to meet our 6-month forecast. While much of those gains can be attributed to broad based weakness in the USD, the INR also received a boost from positive investor sentiment as the Reserve Bank of India surprisingly reduced interest rates by 5 bps. Having said that, it is worth noting that the INR has actually underperformed other emerging market currencies in the recent past as fresh concerns emerged about the speed of economic recovery. With two Federal Reserve meetings due in the final quarter of 215 along with a number of key political events in India, volatility in the INR could rise over the next three months, and we have revised our INR forecast to 65. in 1-month and 64. 3-month on account of this. Page 3
FX Forecasts FX Forecasts - Major Forwards Spot 25.9 1M 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M EUR/USD 1.1358 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.1375 1.1396 1.145 USD/JPY 12.27 122. 124. 127. 13. 12.474 119.86 119.1625 USD/CHF.9616.985 1. 1.4 1.8.9584.9549.9467 GBP/USD 1.5322 1.56 1.52 1.55 1.58 1.5316 1.531 1.532 AUD/USD.7336.7.685.665.65.731.7269.7216 USD/CAD 1.2945 1.335 1.35 1.37 1.4 1.2951 1.2955 1.2959 EUR/GBP.7416.751.715.6774.6456.743.7446.7486 EUR/JPY 136.61 134.2 133.92 133.35 132.6 136.695 136.693 136.684 EUR/CHF 1.922 1.835 1.8 1.92 1.116 1.92 1.882 1.84 NZD/USD.6686.62.62.59.565.6642.662.653 FX Forecasts - Emerging Forwards Spot 25.9 1M 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M USD/SAR* 3.751 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.7527 3.7581 3.7891 USD/AED* 3.673 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.6755 3.6775 3.683 USD/KWD.319.29.29.29.3.382.3169.3299 USD/OMR*.385.38.38.38.38.3985.4159.457 USD/BHD*.3773.376.376.376.376.3798.3848.3973 USD/QAR* 3.6417 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.6437 3.646 3.652 USD/EGP 7.8232 7.9 8. 8.1 8.3 8.7632 9.4132 1.2382 USD/INR 64.735 65. 64. 65. 63. 64.7443 64.7548 64.7755 USD/CNY 6.3452 6.4 6.5 6.55 6.6 - - - Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research *Denotes USD peg Page 4
Major Currency Pairs and Interest Rates Interest Rate Differentials - EUR Interest Rate Differentials - GBP. 1.4.4 1.75 -.2 -.4 1.35 1.3 1.25.2 1.7 1.65 -.6 1.2. 1.6 -.8-1. 1.15 1.1 -.2 1.55 1.5-1.2 1. -.4 1.45 German 2yr yield - US 2yr yield GBP 2yr yield - US 2yr yield Interest Rate Differentials JPY Interest Rate Differentials - CHF.9 13. 1.8 1.1.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 125. 12. 115. 11. 15. 1. 1.5 1.3 1..8.5.3. 1..95.9.85 US 2yr yield - JPY 2yr yield US 2yr yield - CHF 2yr yield Interest Rate Differentials - CAD Interest Rate Differentials - AUD.4 1.35 3. 1.. -.4 -.8 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.1 2.5 2. 1.5.95.9.85.8.75.7-1.2 1..65 US 2yr yield - CAD 2yr yield AUD 2yr yield - US 2 yr yield Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Page 5
(contracts s) (contracts s) (contracts s) (contracts s) (contracts s) (contracts s) Major Currency Positions CFTC Speculative Positions - EUR 15 1.5 1 1.45 5 1.4 1.35 1.3-5 1.25-1 1.2-15 1.15 1.1-2 -25 1. CFTC Speculative Positions - GBP 1 1.75 75 1.7 5 25 1.65 1.6-25 1.55-5 -75 1.5-1 1.45 CFTC Speculative Positions - JPY CFTC Speculative Positions - CHF 8 9 5.75 3 1 25.85-2 11-7 -12 12-25.95-17 13-5 CFTC Speculative Positions - CAD 15 1 5-5 -1 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25 1.3-15 CFTC Speculative Positions - AUD 15 1. 125.95 1 75.9 5.85 25.8-25.75-5.7-75.65 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Page 6
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